The Wiz Posted January 1, 2015 Share Posted January 1, 2015 Unfortunately, the Vandy game was about what was expected (though the Vegas followers seemed surprised). For a post game analysis see the "Vandy over the Bills " thread ...post #41 At this point, I don't think we have regressed...coming in around the spread. I think we have plateaued...Improvement ...pause ...improvement... pause. I think we are at a pause now looking to take the next step up. On to RI and conference play. For those that liked the Vandy game you will like this one too because it is a redo. RI like Vandy is A-. This doesn't mean we will see the same team. RI is not as good a shooting team as Vandy...but still good. RI is "only" 33rd in the nation in shooting (48%). So what is the difference between being 6th in the nation (Vandy moved up a notch after our game) and 33rd in the nation? RI can't shoot 3's. But, whatever little falloff there is in shooting they make up for with experience. Rams players have 10,876 minutes vs the Bills ( F+ ) 5900. They make less mistakes than Vandy...take care of the ball better but are still vulnerable to TO's. This won't be easy. This is RI's best start since 08 and they are on a 3 game win streak So here;s what we need to do to win.......... First, stop RI by...... holding them to this slash line.....24 or less FGM/ 52 or less FGA/ 47% or less FG%...I need 2 of 3 off this slash line.....doable numbers for the Bills D 12 or more TO's by the Rams Hold R Martin to 6 or less FGM Hold Matthews to 15...He is their go to guy...these dominant players usually get their points so the idea is to keep him from having a big game. The above numbers are not unrealistic for our D And on the Bills side....... We need a little more offense How much?? We need to ... Score at least 61 pts Make 23 FG Shoot 42.6% FG% or better Make 1/3 of our 3's (33.3%) or better Shoot 72% FT or better Less than 12 TO's...Vandy game, we had an excellent rate of 8...keep it up Again, the above numbers are very doable If we put it all together...we can take the next step up ...we can beat RI Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BigMouthBilliken Posted January 1, 2015 Share Posted January 1, 2015 Thought I was still a little out of it from New Years eve seeing the Rams favored by 15 but then I remembered I didn't drink last night Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
slu72 Posted January 1, 2015 Share Posted January 1, 2015 It's that "putting it all together" thing that's been so elusive, Wiz. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Wiz Posted January 2, 2015 Author Share Posted January 2, 2015 It's that "putting it all together" thing that's been so elusive, Wiz. It looks to me like we bottomed after the S. Dak St game and we have been on an upswing since. We are clearly better than we were at the start of the season. When will we "put it all together"....could be next game or at the end of the season.... In any case, we need to continue on the learning curve ...if we lose by around 15, the pause continues....if we lose by single digits, we continue to trend up...if we win , we put it all together. To paraphrase Forrest Gump...The Bills are like a box of chocolates...you never know what you will get. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Billikenboy Posted January 2, 2015 Share Posted January 2, 2015 It looks to me like we bottomed after the S. Dak St game and we have been on an upswing since. We are clearly better than we were at the start of the season. When will we "put it all together"....could be next game or at the end of the season.... In any case, we need to continue on the learning curve ...if we lose by around 15, the pause continues....if we lose by single digits, we continue to trend up...if we win , we put it all together. To paraphrase Forrest Gump...The Bills are like a box of chocolates...you never know what you will get. So true! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Old guy Posted January 2, 2015 Share Posted January 2, 2015 Agree, I think the Bills are improving. Again, if they had managed to get a decent free throw % to score they would have ended a lot closer to Vanderbilt. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WestCoastBilliken Posted January 2, 2015 Share Posted January 2, 2015 Betting against the Jesuits this week. SLU is +6 vs Rhode Island LMU is +9 vs St Marys I will be taking a Rhode Island and St Marys parlay and will be teasing the points Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Wiz Posted January 2, 2015 Author Share Posted January 2, 2015 Betting against the Jesuits this week. SLU is +6 vs Rhode Island LMU is +9 vs St Marys I will be taking a Rhode Island and St Marys parlay and will be teasing the points The SLU game...another great deal ...with a 9 pt differential spread...2nd game in a row with at least 9 pts difference St. Mary's by 11....not so much of deal...2pt diff Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Pelican Posted January 2, 2015 Share Posted January 2, 2015 Betting against the Jesuits this week. SLU is +6 vs Rhode Island LMU is +9 vs St Marys I will be taking a Rhode Island and St Marys parlay and will be teasing the points That's not a bad idea. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WestCoastBilliken Posted January 2, 2015 Share Posted January 2, 2015 The SLU game...another great deal ...with a 9 pt differential spread...2nd game in a row with at least 9 pts difference St. Mary's by 11....not so much of deal...2pt diff LMU is TERRIBLE. I think with a tease it is almost guaranteed. Glad to know Wiz's numbers are on my side tho. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WestCoastBilliken Posted January 3, 2015 Share Posted January 3, 2015 That's not a bad idea. Went a little wild this Saturday.... Parlay + Teased 8 points. Took Rhode Island at +1, St Marys (Vs LMU) at -0.5, and Gonzaga (Vs Portland) at -4. Win is -110 money. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SLU_Nick Posted January 3, 2015 Share Posted January 3, 2015 West coast...that feels like a lock. Just sucks to root against your own team Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WestCoastBilliken Posted January 3, 2015 Share Posted January 3, 2015 West coast...that feels like a lock. Just sucks to root against your own team Agreed, it is what it is... no need to not make a little money while it is. heh. Only game I am a bit concerned with is Gonzaga. I dont think Portland is that bad of a team this year. Oh well should provide some Saturday entertainment either way. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Pelican Posted January 3, 2015 Share Posted January 3, 2015 Went a little wild this Saturday.... Parlay + Teased 8 points. Took Rhode Island at +1, St Marys (Vs LMU) at -0.5, and Gonzaga (Vs Portland) at -4. Win is -110 money. I did the same but parlaying the over on the SLU game. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Wiz Posted January 4, 2015 Author Share Posted January 4, 2015 Unfortunately, the Vandy game was about what was expected (though the Vegas followers seemed surprised). For a post game analysis see the "Vandy over the Bills " thread ...post #41 At this point, I don't think we have regressed...coming in around the spread. I think we have plateaued...Improvement ...pause ...improvement... pause. I think we are at a pause now looking to take the next step up. On to RI and conference play. For those that liked the Vandy game you will like this one too because it is a redo. RI like Vandy is A-. This doesn't mean we will see the same team. RI is not as good a shooting team as Vandy...but still good. RI is "only" 33rd in the nation in shooting (48%). So what is the difference between being 6th in the nation (Vandy moved up a notch after our game) and 33rd in the nation? RI can't shoot 3's. But, whatever little falloff there is in shooting they make up for with experience. Rams players have 10,876 minutes vs the Bills ( F+ ) 5900. They make less mistakes than Vandy...take care of the ball better but are still vulnerable to TO's. This won't be easy. This is RI's best start since 08 and they are on a 3 game win streak So here;s what we need to do to win.......... First, stop RI by...... holding them to this slash line.....24 or less FGM/ 52 or less FGA/ 47% or less FG%...I need 2 of 3 off this slash line.....doable numbers for the Bills D 12 or more TO's by the Rams Hold R Martin to 6 or less FGM Hold Matthews to 15...He is their go to guy...these dominant players usually get their points so the idea is to keep him from having a big game. The above numbers are not unrealistic for our D And on the Bills side....... We need a little more offense How much?? We need to ... Score at least 61 pts Make 23 FG Shoot 42.6% FG% or better Make 1/3 of our 3's (33.3%) or better Shoot 72% FT or better Less than 12 TO's...Vandy game, we had an excellent rate of 8...keep it up Again, the above numbers are very doable If we put it all together...we can take the next step up ...we can beat RI Well this shouldn't be to hard to analyze....summed up in 1 word...turnovers But let's look at the numbers anyway because there are some interesting trends... Point spread...off by 3.......Pass ..... and way better than Vegas...hopefully some additional cash for Bills fans who took advantage of the spread differential....also 2 pts off the St. M / LMU game (see post #8 in this thread) Now let's move on to defense... RI slash line 24 FGM...Pass...exact hit 52 FGA...Pass...,exact hit 46.2%.....Pass....needed 47% or less 2 of 3 of the above...Pass...made all 3 Need12 or more TO's...Pass...14 actual Hold Martin to 6 or less FGM....Pass.....exact hit....6 Hold Matthews to 15 or less......Pass......12pts actual Overall Defense grade....A Now on to Offense Score 61pts or more....Fail....53 actual Make 23 FG................Fail....20 actual Shoot 42.6% or better....Pass....45.5% Make 1/3 of 3's (33%).......Major Fail....16.7% half of a third Shoot 72% FT................Fail.....61.1% Less than 12 TO's...........Major Fail.......21 Overall offense grade....D- (because they made shooting %) To state the obvious ....less TO's and we would have won easy. However, even with a huge TO count , we still could have squeezed out a win with some decent offensive numbers. I think one of the reasons our TO's were so high is that we tried to dribble out of the press. Passing out of the press seemed to be a better idea. I guess a concern I have going forward is VCU... who has a better press than RI If we don't take care of the ball better, those VCU games could be ugly. The good news was we could have beaten this team.....A- ...one of the better A-10 teams...It show we have the potential to win against anybody in the conference if we play smart. Still waiting till we "put it all together" Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kmbilliken Posted January 4, 2015 Share Posted January 4, 2015 Relying on Yarborough to break the VCU press will not end well. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WestCoastBilliken Posted January 4, 2015 Share Posted January 4, 2015 Wiz ...what do you have the Gonzaga game at? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Wiz Posted January 4, 2015 Author Share Posted January 4, 2015 Wiz ...what do you have the Gonzaga game at? Gonz ( A+ ) over Portland ( B- ) by 15 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
slu72 Posted January 4, 2015 Share Posted January 4, 2015 Wiz, any idea how you've done against the Vegas spreads? I bet on the MSU game using your spread and won. Didn't bet today because it was at home. Sorry, I didn't. I realize no one's perfect because you'd be a billionaire and not talking us to MBM's, but you've been pretty spot on this year, or have you? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Wiz Posted January 4, 2015 Author Share Posted January 4, 2015 Wiz, any idea how you've done against the Vegas spreads? I bet on the MSU game using your spread and won. Didn't bet today because it was at home. Sorry, I didn't. I realize no one's perfect because you'd be a billionaire and not talking us to MBM's, but you've been pretty spot on this year, or have you? A few tips .... First, never use my system in Nov (wait till both teams have at least 6 games). Data is too sketchy in the beginning. Next, look for games that have a wide point differential to Vegas...I would say at least 5 points...you could cut it closer but why do that when you can cherry pick games that are a lock. These last 2 Bills games are good examples...9 1/2 pt difference between Vegas and me on the Vandy game and 9 pt difference today in the RI game.These games were gold. In post #8 on this thread, West Coast Billiken asked about the St. Marys game and in a later post the Zag spread....they were 2 pt diff and 3 pt diff respectively. While they will probably work out, I would have probably skipped those games and looked for 5pt + differential. I have a very high success rate when going 5+. Again, the best policy is to cherry pick. Don't try to cut things to close....go for the locks. My goal on this board, is to forecast Bills outcomes along with doing statisical analysis to show exactly what we need to do to win and what weakness the other teams have. Post game is to look and see what worked and what didn't work. My primary goal is not gambling but from time to time opportunities arise that are too good to pass up. When a market is inefficient, it is my job to help correct it.. Posters on this board are very good at finding those inequities. If you pay attention, you will spot them Good luck to you 72 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Old guy Posted January 4, 2015 Share Posted January 4, 2015 The good news was we could have beaten this team.....A- ...one of the better A-10 teams...It show we have the potential to win against anybody in the conference if we play smart. Still waiting till we "put it all together" Could not agree more, we played a good solid game. Yes, there were deficiencies, but the way I like to see it is that we ran out of steam in the last few minutes of the game. I think this was a fine effort that we might have won and that shows much improvement in the way we are playing. I know many of you will laugh at me but do not care. Good game Bills, keep up the good work and keep on improving. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
drkelsey55 Posted January 4, 2015 Share Posted January 4, 2015 Could not agree more, we played a good solid game. Yes, there were deficiencies, but the way I like to see it is that we ran out of steam in the last few minutes of the game. I think this was a fine effort that we might have won and that shows much improvement in the way we are playing. I know many of you will laugh at me but do not care. Good game Bills, keep up the good work and keep on improving. +1 Mc Broom got frustrated late in the game came down the floor and threw up a prayer..exited to the bench. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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