Billsrmajic Posted February 13, 2012 Share Posted February 13, 2012 We are 20-5 and have won four in a row. What if we run the table in regular season, then win the A-10 tournament? That puts us at 28-5, with a 12-game winning streak. Also, let's assume we beat Temple in the championship game of the A-10 tournament. Obviously, that's the best we can do. My question is, if all that happens, what seed do we earn in the NCAA tournament? What is our best case scenario? I say a three seed, and possibly a four. Thoughts? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mccarthyirish7 Posted February 13, 2012 Share Posted February 13, 2012 I say a three seed, and possibly a four. Thoughts? In that exact scenario, I'd agree with you. 3 at best and 5 at worst.... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbizzle09 Posted February 13, 2012 Share Posted February 13, 2012 We are 20-5 and have won four in a row. What if we run the table in regular season, then win the A-10 tournament? That puts us at 28-5, with a 12-game winning streak. Also, let's assume we beat Temple in the championship game of the A-10 tournament. Obviously, that's the best we can do. My question is, if all that happens, what seed do we earn in the NCAA tournament? What is our best case scenario? I say a three seed, and possibly a four. Thoughts? We are definitely on the same wavelength here. I said in another thread today that I felt a #3 seed would be justified if we won out and finished 28-5. At that point our RPI should be right around 10, and we'd have the A-10 championship under our belt, as well as 12 consecutive wins. However, a #4 seed would probably be what we are given, under this scenario. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JettFlight5 Posted February 13, 2012 Share Posted February 13, 2012 I would think a 5...much like the job Temple got when they drew Cornell in a "let's wipe out a non-BCS team" plan. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
waldo027 Posted February 13, 2012 Share Posted February 13, 2012 Probably a 5 or 6 seed. The SOS will still be relatively weak. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kshoe Posted February 13, 2012 Share Posted February 13, 2012 Probably a 5 or 6 seed. The SOS will still be relatively weak. The RPI is 75% SOS. If we have an RPI of 10, all the other computer polls have us around 10th and have a 12 game winning streak, anything worse than a 4 seed would be a screw job. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ARon Posted February 13, 2012 Share Posted February 13, 2012 Hard to see a team that isn't even in the top 25 in mid February getting a 3 seed. 5 is probably our ceiling even if we win out. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cowboy Posted February 13, 2012 Share Posted February 13, 2012 Hard to see a team that isn't even in the top 25 in mid February getting a 3 seed. 5 is probably our ceiling even if we win out. -while the committee maybe flawed in some ways, they at least put some thought in their process whereas we have seen some voters in the polls give no thought so i am not sure how a ranking or not in mid feb impacts potential seeding in mid march Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Duff Man Posted February 13, 2012 Share Posted February 13, 2012 I would think a 5...much like the job Temple got when they drew Cornell in a "let's wipe out a non-BCS team" plan. Bingo. You guys are effing high if you think we're getting a 3 or a 4, and a 5-seed is probably a stretch. Good A10 teams typically get seeded 6 or 7. The ratings might all agree that we're around the 12-16th best team, but we don't have the marquee wins to back it up. Realize that the A10 tournament is on Selection Sunday - even if we blow out Temple in the Final, we're not getting a seed bump from that game. None of this matters because the teams seed 5 thru 12 are all pretty much capable of beating each other on any given day. We should expect to play a team that's every bit as good as us in the first round and a superior team in the second round. and realistically, we're not winning the A10 tournament because we're going to be playing teams that need the win far more than we do. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
doowop Posted February 13, 2012 Share Posted February 13, 2012 Hard to see a team that isn't even in the top 25 in mid February getting a 3 seed. 5 is probably our ceiling even if we win out.If we win out we will probably be ranked in the top 25. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
David King Posted February 13, 2012 Share Posted February 13, 2012 5 sounds about right. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bgtholt88 Posted February 13, 2012 Share Posted February 13, 2012 Two Scenarios I Question: 1: We win out our regular season schedule, ending at 25-5 prior to the A10 Tourney. If we do not win the A10 tourney, how far will we have to get through the A10 Tourney to make the tournament. 2: We don't win out the regular season. Say we go 3-2 ending at 23-7. From there do we have to win the A10 tourney to make it?? Or is a second place finish or semi-final appearance going to make the cut? Thoughts anyone? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Duff Man Posted February 13, 2012 Share Posted February 13, 2012 Two Scenarios I Question: 1: We win out our regular season schedule, ending at 25-5 prior to the A10 Tourney. If we do not win the A10 tourney, how far will we have to get through the A10 Tourney to make the tournament. If we go 13-3 in the A10 and finish first or second, we're in no matter what happens in AC. 2: We don't win out the regular season. Say we go 3-2 ending at 23-7. From there do we have to win the A10 tourney to make it?? Or is a second place finish or semi-final appearance going to make the cut? Semi-final appearance should cut it under that scenario. We can probably afford 1 more non-hideous regular season loss (e.g. vs Xavier, @Duquesne) without having to pad our resume in the A10 tourney. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbizzle09 Posted February 13, 2012 Share Posted February 13, 2012 Two Scenarios I Question: 1: We win out our regular season schedule, ending at 25-5 prior to the A10 Tourney. If we do not win the A10 tourney, how far will we have to get through the A10 Tourney to make the tournament. If we finish 5-0, we are in no matter what. That would place our RPI at around 21 before the A-10 tournament. We also would have a bye in the A-10 tournament, so it is likely that any loss in the A-10 tournament won't be a 'bad' loss. An early knockout would just effect what seed SLU is given. 2: We don't win out the regular season. Say we go 3-2 ending at 23-7. From there do we have to win the A10 tourney to make it?? Or is a second place finish or semi-final appearance going to make the cut? Thoughts anyone? The 3-2 scenario has a lot to do with who SLU loses to. If SLU loses those two to X and Duquesne, then SLU can probably still get into the tournament with just one A-10 tourney victory. This scenario has SLU getting a bye to Atlantic City, in all likelihood (can't see 11-5 being 5th or worse this season.) If SLU loses one of those games to Fordham, URI or Richmond, their will be a significant RPI hit and SLU will probably need 2 wins in Atlantic City to feel secure enough to make the tournament. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AMDG Posted February 13, 2012 Share Posted February 13, 2012 If we finish 5-0, we are in no matter what. That would place our RPI at around 21 before the A-10 tournament. Wont our rpi take a hit just from playing the butt-ass of the conference, even if we beat them? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbizzle09 Posted February 13, 2012 Share Posted February 13, 2012 If we finish 5-0, we are in no matter what. That would place our RPI at around 21 before the A-10 tournament. Wont our rpi take a hit just from playing the butt-ass of the conference, even if we beat them? Yes, but not as big as you would think. It would definitely take a significant hit if we lost any of those games (Richmond, Fordham, @URI). However, we then finish off against Xavier and @ Duquesne, which will push it back up a bit. Right now, it sits at 23, so 5-0 pretty much keeps us where we are at currently, RPI wise. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Billsrmajic Posted February 13, 2012 Author Share Posted February 13, 2012 Two Scenarios I Question: 1: We win out our regular season schedule, ending at 25-5 prior to the A10 Tourney. If we do not win the A10 tourney, how far will we have to get through the A10 Tourney to make the tournament. 2: We don't win out the regular season. Say we go 3-2 ending at 23-7. From there do we have to win the A10 tourney to make it?? Or is a second place finish or semi-final appearance going to make the cut? Thoughts anyone? 5-0 regular season and 0-1 in the A-10 tournament = IN 3-2 regular season and I think we need one A-10 win Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kwyjibo Posted February 13, 2012 Share Posted February 13, 2012 Actually, IF we go 3-2 down the stretch then it would depend on the seed. The only thing that would kill us would be then to lose to GW or Charlotte at home (as a 5 seed); even then our RPI will be "good enough" but the act of losing to GW or Charlotte would itself count as a "bad loss". A loss at a neutral site against a top 100 team as a 4 seed (presumably against a 5 seed) would make things iffy but I gotta think we definitely should be in. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Duff Man Posted February 13, 2012 Share Posted February 13, 2012 The 3-2 scenario has a lot to do with who SLU loses to. If SLU loses those two to X and Duquesne, then SLU can probably still get into the tournament with just one A-10 tourney victory. This scenario has SLU getting a bye to Atlantic City, in all likelihood (can't see 11-5 being 5th or worse this season.) If SLU loses one of those games to Fordham, URI or Richmond, their will be a significant RPI hit and SLU will probably need 2 wins in Atlantic City to feel secure enough to make the tournament. The RPI doesn't care which games we lose, since it's calculated using aggregate numbers (winning %, SOS, opponents SOS). Bottom line is that we can afford to lose one more regular season game and feel 100% secure about our place in the field of 68. If we lose 2 of these remaining 5 games, then everything is up in the air until Selection Sunday. I'll also point out that - as deep as the A10 is - our neutral court A10 quarterfinal matchup is likely to be more difficult than our 2nd toughest remaining regular season game - we cannot let it come to that. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quality Is Job 1 Posted February 13, 2012 Share Posted February 13, 2012 The RPI doesn't care which games we lose, since it's calculated using aggregate numbers (winning %, SOS, opponents SOS). Bottom line is that we can afford to lose one more regular season game and feel 100% secure about our place in the field of 68. If we lose 2 of these remaining 5 games, then everything is up in the air until Selection Sunday. I'll also point out that - as deep as the A10 is - our neutral court A10 quarterfinal matchup is likely to be more difficult than our 2nd toughest remaining regular season game - we cannot let it come to that. While it's true that the RPI doesn't depend on which game the team wins or loses, the selectors looking at the results would factor in "bad losses" -- which would be teams with an RPI ranking of 150 or worse (or whatever the standard is). Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kshoe Posted February 13, 2012 Share Posted February 13, 2012 The RPI doesn't care which games we lose, since it's calculated using aggregate numbers (winning %, SOS, opponents SOS). Bottom line is that we can afford to lose one more regular season game and feel 100% secure about our place in the field of 68. If we lose 2 of these remaining 5 games, then everything is up in the air until Selection Sunday. I'll also point out that - as deep as the A10 is - our neutral court A10 quarterfinal matchup is likely to be more difficult than our 2nd toughest remaining regular season game - we cannot let it come to that. Duff Man has been all over it in this thread. Agree with everything he says. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbizzle09 Posted February 13, 2012 Share Posted February 13, 2012 Duff Man has been all over it in this thread. Agree with everything he says. He is absolutely correct. While the hit would be definitely more noticeable after a Fordham or URI loss, for those who look at RPI on a daily basis, the wins will 'catch up' when it is all calculated after the season is done (due to the aggregate nature of RPI.) So, 3-2 will result in the same basic RPI regardless if the losses are against X and Duquesne or Fordham and URI. Of course, as ABF pointed out, losses against URI and Fordham will stick out as 'bad losses' on a tournament resume. So, the solution? Go 5-0 and not worry about any of it! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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