Cowboy Posted January 3, 2012 Share Posted January 3, 2012 -we control our own destiny, as we have forever and i expect we will until there is some radical change to the tourney like the bcs schools leaving, quite simply if we win games and prove that we are deserving of a bid we will get one, if we don't win games then we will not deserve a bid and will not get one Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RiseAndGrind Posted January 3, 2012 Share Posted January 3, 2012 I'm still convinced the Bills are going to the tourney. As long as they win tomorrow they should still be track to be dancing. Winning at The Pit would have given SLU a little leeway, but now winning at Dayton is almost a must win. I like SLU's chances. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
billiken_roy Posted January 3, 2012 Author Share Posted January 3, 2012 So It seems like the people in congruence with Billiken Roy's views are not happy with how we have played so far this season to be complaining about our chances of making the tournament. Please let me know if you really expected to be better than 12-2 in non-conference. If you tell me you expected to be better than 12-2, I will know you are lying and therefore a giant vagin no you are wrong. at least on my account. i had this team losing double digits prior to the start of the season. so i am overjoyed at the current state. it is an extremely pleasant surprise to me. had the team followed my pre-season expectations, we wouldnt be in the position we had to worry about our horrible scheduling. it wouldnt really matter. my original point was to illustrate we have to really smack the hell out of the conference to make it the rest of the way. we got a chance. a real good chance to do that with this team. but anyone thinking we can blow a couple or three games vs anyone not named xavier or temple i think they are dreaming. we have no margin for error. the league is not a four bid league and we will not get any favors from the committee that is as usual trying to figure out how to get a couple more bcs 500 record teams in the tourney. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cowboy Posted January 3, 2012 Share Posted January 3, 2012 no you are wrong. at least on my account. i had this team losing double digits prior to the start of the season. so i am overjoyed at the current state. it is an extremely pleasant surprise to me. had the team followed my pre-season expectations, we wouldnt be in the position we had to worry about our horrible scheduling. it wouldnt really matter. my original point was to illustrate we have to really smack the hell out of the conference to make it the rest of the way. we got a chance. a real good chance to do that with this team. but anyone thinking we can blow a couple or three games vs anyone not named xavier or temple i think they are dreaming. we have no margin for error. the league is not a four bid league and we will not get any favors from the committee that is as usual trying to figure out how to get a couple more bcs 500 record teams in the tourney. -if we win games we get a bid, if we don't win games we will not get a bid, it is that simple Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MB73 Posted January 3, 2012 Share Posted January 3, 2012 I fear 12-4 will be more difficult than a lot of people think and are taking for granted. Xavier twice, Dayton, Temple, St Joes are tough teams, and a few upset losses on the A-10 road are always a possibility: Charlotte, U Mass, LaSalle, Duq. Tuesday night in some high school like gym in the goddam northeast somewhere. We will have to stay healthy and play very good ball. (note to post that referred to "Sagarin": Sagarin rated Oklahoma as the # 4 NCAA football team going into the bowl season) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kshoe Posted January 3, 2012 Share Posted January 3, 2012 I fear 12-4 will be more difficult than a lot of people think and are taking for granted. Xavier twice, Dayton, Temple, St Joes are tough teams, and a few upset losses on the A-10 road are always a possibility: Charlotte, U Mass, LaSalle, Duq. Tuesday night in some high school like gym in the goddam northeast somewhere. We will have to stay healthy and play very good ball. (note to post that referred to "Sagarin": Sagarin rated Oklahoma as the # 4 NCAA football team going into the bowl season) MB73 has made a good point. There are no "easy" ways to get into the NCAA tourney. You have to win games and beat the teams you should beat. Its an elite tournament and only 1 out of every 7 teams in the country (~50 out of 350) is good enough for an at-large bid. There is a reason its been 11 years since we last went which will make it all the more special when we do go this year, despite what the naysayers are predicting. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NH Posted January 3, 2012 Share Posted January 3, 2012 MB73 has made a good point. There are no "easy" ways to get into the NCAA tourney. You have to win games and beat the teams you should beat. Its an elite tournament and only 1 out of every 7 teams in the country (~50 out of 350) is good enough for an at-large bid. There is a reason its been 11 years since we last went which will make it all the more special when we do go this year, despite what the naysayers are predicting. Agreed. It doesn't come down to scheduling it comes down to recruiting, planning and execution. If we play well enough to be a tourney team, we'll make it. If not, we don't deserve to be in there. That starts wednesday. Every game feels like a must win, but games like Dayton are the type we need to win to be a tourney team. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
b.hayes Posted January 3, 2012 Share Posted January 3, 2012 Fuok Dayton, you guys. The Bils are going to the tourney. 12-2 NC. 13-3 A10. 3-0 Tourney. 28-5. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SShoe Posted January 3, 2012 Share Posted January 3, 2012 Fuok Dayton, you guys. The Bils are going to the tourney. 12-2 NC. 13-3 A10. 3-0 Tourney. 28-5. Nice. At this point, I still think we're the best team in the conference and I want to see us win an A-10 championship. That's the goal. Win em all. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
waldo027 Posted January 3, 2012 Share Posted January 3, 2012 Fuok Dayton, you guys. The Bils are going to the tourney. 12-2 NC. 13-3 A10. 3-0 Tourney. 28-5. This is a fact. I only see 5 games on the conference schedule that should be considered "tough" by any means: @Dayton, Xavier twice, Temple, and @St Joes. 12-4 or 13-3 in this conference is not some amazing impossible feat. I like the conference but from top to bottom it's not very good. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
b.hayes Posted January 3, 2012 Share Posted January 3, 2012 This is a fact. I only see 5 games on the conference schedule that should be considered "tough" by any means: @Dayton, Xavier twice, Temple, and @St Joes. 12-4 or 13-3 in this conference is not some amazing impossible feat. I like the conference but from top to bottom it's not very good. I say get rid of @Dayton. We beat those bastards by 18 @ Dayton last year [on SENIOR NIGHT] when we went 12-19. They just lost their 2nd best player for the entire year. There is no reason we shouldn't expect to beat them twice this year. Sure, slip ups happen, particularly on the road, particularly for the Billikens. But, I have a bottle of Crown riding on every SLU-Dayton from now to eternity, and my one from their senior night last year is dry. I'm not waiting until February to get my next one. We're winning on Wednesday. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bizziken Posted January 3, 2012 Share Posted January 3, 2012 This is a fact. I only see 5 games on the conference schedule that should be considered "tough" by any means: @Dayton, Xavier twice, Temple, and @St Joes. 12-4 or 13-3 in this conference is not some amazing impossible feat. I like the conference but from top to bottom it's not very good. I'd add @ UMass to that list, which means we have 6 tough conference games. We split those and lose a 'flex' game, and that still puts us at 12-4... Also, I find it interesting that the only 2 teams that currently have a higher RPI and a worse SOS than us are Missouri and Ohio. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cowboy Posted January 3, 2012 Share Posted January 3, 2012 I'd add @ UMass to that list, which means we have 6 tough conference games. We split those and lose a 'flex' game, and that still puts us at 12-4... Also, I find it interesting that the only 2 teams that currently have a higher RPI and a worse SOS than us are Missouri and Ohio. -jon smiff Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HusakAttack Posted January 3, 2012 Share Posted January 3, 2012 -jon smiff He's probably slammin some pretty consistent poon up there. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
billiken_roy Posted January 4, 2012 Author Share Posted January 4, 2012 There are a lot of good points made here but I would like to add some more. --I plan on estimating SLU's probability of making the tourney weekly throughout the end of the season. I will use RPIforecast.com/Sagarin predictor, Log 5 tourney prediction, as well as Dance Card info when it becomes available. Right now Sagarin gives us an 78.32% chance of finishing 23-6 or better and I would think with a worse record we would still have a chance (will estimate this more exactly later) but we increase our chances to around 85-86% with the tourney and generous selection (although 23-6 is not 100% as well). --There is no evidence that conference rank has ANY effect on at-large selection. It is not an official criterion and there is no historical evidence of it being used. There are lots of examples of teams finishing behind other teams within conferences because of better non-conf record. If Rhode Island goes 13-3 (they won't) and SLU goes 12-4 (they might) SLU will get in and Rhodey will not. The same goes with conference slotting. There is no conference "quota" based on how good the conference performs. Teams are evaluated (and the conference does provide the opponents for a good chunk of that evaluation but other than influencing number of big wins and SOS conference success plays no other framing/slotting role). --K-Shoe was right that 12-4 is a near lock (depending a bit on how teams we have played fair; in any scenario we need Oklahoma and Washington to excel so we can have more top 50 victories). 12-4 with a weak finish and a conference tourney early exit might create some jitters but 12-4 --The New Mexico game was a good one to schedule because winning it means a significant road win but losing to a top 50 team on the road does not hurt your profile. As noted the loss improved our RPI (and our previous 4 wins worsened our RPI). --The impact of the weak schedule comes in when considering 11-5 conference record (and a win or two in the conf tourney). A weak schedule means that you do not have enough non-RPI factors to fall back on. I still think SLU would be very much in the conversation with an 11-5 conference record as long as there is some decent wins, strong Feb, etc. but obviously we would be at the mercy of what happens to the vagaries of selection. --Technical RPI point--While it appears that currently the MVC is "ahead" of the A10, I doubt it will stay that way (although it will end up being very close regardless). The A10 played a much tougher schedule so far than the MVC so while the nice records of the MVC will help them in the Opp Record part of RPI, the OPP's Opp Record factor strongly favors the A10. per realtime rpi, the mvc has a higher ranked sos than the a-10. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kwyjibo Posted January 4, 2012 Share Posted January 4, 2012 per realtime rpi, the mvc has a higher ranked sos than the a-10. I was puzzling about that myself today but basically right now they are tied in SOS (http://www.rpiforeca...e-conf-rpi.html has A10 infinitesimally better). I apologize for not checking more sites. For whatever reason, RPIforecast.com (http://www.rpiforeca...om/confrpi.html) shows a huge drop off in SOS for the Missouri Valley. Normally, RPIforecast.com is gospel but the drop is so large it has to be a mistake (and I have noticed other small errors on that site this year). Bottomline is that they are really close and will likely end that way (although I was wrong to predict the A-10 will end better as the current Winning Percentage of the MVC will keep them ahead of the A-10 down the line). But while I have your attention Roy, please heed the advice about not talking as if there are conference "slots" for at-large selection. If the A-10 beats up on each other they will have only one bid regardless of how "good" the conference is; conversely if the current top 6 teams always beat the lower 8 and have decent records against each other they will get 6 bids. It is all about separation and the reality will be somewhere inbetween (most likely 3 I suppose, but 2 or 4 are real possibilities if only 2 teams emerge with good overall records or if the top current top 4 teams separate themselves from the rest). Currently, SLU is in a good position because of their wins but they have to keep winning (if SLU's rebounding were better I would not be worried at all). Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shempie Posted January 4, 2012 Share Posted January 4, 2012 Let's not forget about the 4 extra teams that were introduced last year (65 through 68). Those are additional at large bids up for grabs. And also remember that is where VCU started its run. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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