billiken_roy Posted January 19, 2004 Share Posted January 19, 2004 did a quick peak at the rpi tonite to try to see what conferences are in line for the multiple bids etc. right now imo assuming no upsets in conference tourney's (yeah right) i would say the 9 power conferences, acc, sec, big east, big 12, conf usa, big 10, pac 10, mountain west and the a-10 are all looking at more than one bid. the rest are currently looking at one bids. however, texas el paso, gonzaga, siu, western michigan and utah state appear to be poised to make the committee work should they not win their conference tourney. of course should a bottom echelon team of the power conferences win their respective conference tourney as well, that too would make things difficult. right now the acc, big east and sec would prob get 7 teams each. the big 12 and conference usa 5 each. the big 10 and the pac 10 4 each, and the mountainwest and a-10 2 each. that would add up to 65 teams. now if there are upsets, the big 10, pac 10 and conference usa would probably be the first leagues to lose a team. the point is, we can easily be there. conference usa is going to get at least 4 and probably 5 teams. we have to keep winning. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aj_arete Posted January 19, 2004 Share Posted January 19, 2004 will tell us a lot about where SLU is going. I believe after E. Carolina that they're playing on the road against Charlotte, UAB and Memphis. If they can win one of those games, I like SLU's chances. If they lose all three, you have to wonder if they can bounce back. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thetorch Posted January 19, 2004 Share Posted January 19, 2004 Road games are always tough but only Memphis really scares me right now. UAB and Charlotte just are not playing their best ball right now. UAB always gets us at their place, we will beat the streak this year. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
billiken_roy Posted January 19, 2004 Author Share Posted January 19, 2004 i am of the belief that they need to win them all. 2 out of the three is bubblelike. 1 of three i agree is killer. the problem is that slu really has no big wins. close but no cigars like arizona and georgia tech wont get them in. they have to beat somebody. right now dayton is our best win and dayton isnt top 10. a nice win, but we either have to keep winning or we have to beat louisville or cincy imo. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kshoe Posted January 19, 2004 Share Posted January 19, 2004 all we NEED out of that stretch is 1 of 3. 2 of 3 would be great but its highly unlikely. We NEVER play well in Charlotte and UAB always plays us well. Plus a road game against Memphis. 1 out of 3 will be fine. Look at it this way. If we win 1 of these 3 and beat East Carolina we will be 5-3 in conference. Lets assume we win 4 of the final 5 home games (I'm going to assume Louisville is the loss but it could be someone else with an upset of Louisville) That gives us 9 wins. All we would need is a win over Tulane or Depaul on the road for 10 wins. Win both of those and you have 11. We will not win at Cinci. There is no way we go 11-5 in conference and don't make the dance and even 10-6 will get us right on the bubble. Look around the conference. Its Louisville, Cinci and the rest of us. Most of the rest of us already have 2 losses in only 4 games. I think there are going to be a lot of teams hovering around 9-7, 8-8 etc. If we finish 10-6 we will certainly be in the top 5 of the conference, possibly even 4th. I think talk that we NEED to win 2 of those 3 is just asking for too much. Lets keep the expectations/goals realistic. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Schasz Posted January 19, 2004 Share Posted January 19, 2004 I'm of the opinion that we need to win all 6 of our home games and that includes the Louisville game...I agree with BRoy that we must have a quality win for the selection dudes on our resume...awful questionable if we are counting that Dayton is our only quality win. Then if we could win at least 2 of our remaining 6 road games, we'd have 18 wins and we'd have the 12 conference wins that Coach Soderberg felt we need for serious NCAA consideration. If we can get one of the next 3 on the road then I would think that we would be in good shape to make the run needed for one of the CUSA Big Dance bids. Still lots of basketball to be played, but we are in an OK position to make a run. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kshoe Posted January 19, 2004 Share Posted January 19, 2004 CUSA is a power conference. Coupled with our respectable 7-4 non-conference record we do not need a 12-4 conference record. That was simply Brad talking "coach-speak". All coaches do it. Brad knows 11-5 will get us in and 10-6 will probably do it too. By the same token Brad will probably talk about how we NEED to get all 3 wins on the road coming up but he knows 2 of 3 would be great and 1 of 3 will be fine. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Schasz Posted January 19, 2004 Share Posted January 19, 2004 I still concur with BRoy to make this more of a sure thing, even with 10 or 11 wins, we need that quality win for the selection committee. That's why we better beat one of the big two Cincy or Louisville to ensure our angst level is a little on the more bearable side come selection Sunday. Needless to say, best way is to take it one game at a time. Today, ECU is the most important game on our schedule. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kshoe Posted January 19, 2004 Share Posted January 19, 2004 that the team needs to take it one game at a time but as fans it sure is fun to look down the road a little... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
billiken_roy Posted January 19, 2004 Author Share Posted January 19, 2004 i am betting that 11 conference wins puts us right around a 50 rpi. the only way it will be better is if we hand cincy or louisville their only loss of the conference season. 50 is bubble city. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STLBlazer Posted January 19, 2004 Share Posted January 19, 2004 that's an understatement for us. We are the biggest underachievers this season. I am VERY disappointed in how we have played. We have the talent but our players are playing stupid and inconsistent. It's tough work being a UAB fan this year. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quality Is Job 1 Posted January 19, 2004 Share Posted January 19, 2004 Remember, RPI isn't the NCAA's only criterion. If the Billikens go 11-5 and that's good for third in C-USA, then the Billikens won't have to worry about what their RPI ranking is. It might have an impact on their seed, but regardless of what their RPI ranking is, if the Bills finish 3rd in Conference USA, they're in. In my mind, the Bills need to get just two more road wins and to protect the home court, and they'll be in the Tourney with a record of 19-10 (assuming one C-USA Tourney win and an 11-5 conference record). The Bills could lose all three of this next stretch of road games and still finish with the aforementioned 11-5 record. Bottom line: If the Bills hold serve at home and ****** two breaks (tennis analogy), probably at DePaul and at Tulane, they'll go 11-5 and be in the NCAAs. If the Bills are able to win two out of their next three road games, then there's the possibility of their going 13-3 in the conference and competing for the regular season C-USA title. That would be great, but isn't required for an at-large bid. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
billiken_roy Posted January 20, 2004 Author Share Posted January 20, 2004 protecting home court is a win over louisville. all my arguments have included a beat louisville or cincy escape clause. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tonka Posted January 20, 2004 Share Posted January 20, 2004 You guys do the math and figuring knowing this. We will 2 of the 3 road games. We will. Make your arguments based upon that. - NostraTonka Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tonka Posted January 20, 2004 Share Posted January 20, 2004 We will win 2 of 3! Sorry, kind of loses its purpose leaving win out of it. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kshoe Posted January 20, 2004 Share Posted January 20, 2004 on this upcoming road stretch we need to start looking at first round sights. I hope that you are right. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bluecrewwebmaster Posted January 20, 2004 Share Posted January 20, 2004 We need to not worry about where we stand and take care of business. Take it one game at a time. 2 of 3 on the road is definately doable but lets get there before we worry about whats next. And we do need a quality win from Louisville or Cincy...Dayton wont cut it. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quality Is Job 1 Posted January 20, 2004 Share Posted January 20, 2004 ...have the Billikens been so good of a road team that we can talk about their winning two out of three road games against teams in the middle third of the conference? I'll be happy -- very happy -- if the Bills win one of the three road games against Charlotte, UAB, and Memphis, but I'm still expecting them to lose all three (albeit I don't fear it will eliminate the Bills from the NCAA Tournament, though). Even so, I'll acknowedge that all three of the games are winnable. Let's see what the Bills record is come February 8. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quality Is Job 1 Posted January 20, 2004 Share Posted January 20, 2004 Wouldn't wins over Charlotte and Marquette be considered quality wins? If the Bills go 11-5 in the conference (that would probably be good for third) they'll be in the NCAA Tournament even without a win over either Cincinnati or Louisville (though that would require the Bills to win one of the three road games against Charlotte, UAB, and Memphis). Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tonka Posted January 20, 2004 Share Posted January 20, 2004 Thicks, it doesn't matter what they have been. They are going to win 2 of the next three road games. Count on it. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
billiken_roy Posted January 20, 2004 Author Share Posted January 20, 2004 thicks said, "Wouldn't wins over Charlotte and Marquette be considered quality wins?" no more than dayton. if we have a 50ish rpi, our relatively weak strength of schedule and our best "quality wins" being charlotte, marquette and dayton, i am betting doesnt get us in. now if we have 12 conference wins though and go a couple of rounds in the cusa tourney, we might be under 40 rpi by then. 12 is the magic number without wins vs louisville or cincy imo. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quality Is Job 1 Posted January 20, 2004 Share Posted January 20, 2004 According to your criteria, there would be very few teams worthy of an at-large bid. Probably not more than 10. I'm telling you, if the Bills finish third in Conference USA, they're in even without a win over Cincy or Louisville. I think they'll knock off Louisville, anyway, but a loss there wouldn't keep the Bills out of the Tournament. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quality Is Job 1 Posted January 20, 2004 Share Posted January 20, 2004 I need to know for the pick-em contest. If I had stuck with my preseason picks, I'd be no worse than second, virtually even with Iggy. In the preseason I believed SLU would lose at West Virginia and at SMS, but when making my pick-em picks, I changed to follow my heart. The only time my preseason picks have be wrong has been at Dayton. I'm in the position that I'm going to have to be very careful about going against my preseason picks. Well, my preseason picks have three losses in the Billikens' next three road games. So, Nostra-Tonka, what inducements can I offer for you to send me a private message (because I don't want Iggy to follow suit) telling me which two of these next three road games the Billikens will win? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SluSignGuy Posted January 20, 2004 Share Posted January 20, 2004 Iggy is actually going by his preseason picks alone, and probably is reaping the benefits for it. I am personally following my heart too much. I am tanking in the pick-em. Steve Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quality Is Job 1 Posted January 20, 2004 Share Posted January 20, 2004 I know; he told me that at the gathering. The thing is, his preseason projections and mine were similar, but quite a few posters thought in the preseason that the Bills would do considerably better than I did, and those posters would be hurting if they followed their own preseason picks. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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