About scheduling

[ACE]

We had this discussion about non-conference scheduling a few months ago. There was an interesting blurb in the Sporting News. It reinforces my opinion that wins are more important to SLU at this point than loading the non-conference schedule with tough opponents:

"The arrival of Charlotte and Saint Louis at this year's Atlantic 10 Conference meetings put some weight behind some schools' contention that overeager scheduling has damaged the league's postseason prospects. Among 31 leagues, the A-10 ranked No. 1 in schedule strength last season - and got just one team into the NCAA Tourney and two into the NIT. Conference USA, the league Charlotte and Saint Louis played in last season, ranked 19th and got nine teams into postseason play. The message was clear: Nothing is more important than winning games."

[VTIME]

okay

[bonwich]

I bet kwyjibo weighs in with some actual data, but with all due respect to the Sporting News, its writer obviously can't think in more than two dimensions. A proper analysis would also include the tangible number of teams over the past several years who won a lot of games but didn't go to the NCAA. (And basically, it also should admit that the NIT is nothing but a marketing scheme, which also grossly skews the "post-season" data.)

As the last NCAA tourney spots are filled out, wins count, but so does SOS.

[kwyjibo]

This has already come up: http://www.billikens.com/dcforum/DCForumID3/4588.html

I would like to emphasize once again the DeCourcy has his basic facts wrong (about Conf-USA schedule being ranked 19th--it was 13th) and that should give any careful reader a big clue about how much his "opinion" is worth. He talks about conferences and individual bids as if they were the same thing which is an illogical sleight of hand.

RPI is 50% your opponents win percentage and 25% your opponents win percentage. Home wins count less than away wins in RPI now. RPI is a very important factor in NCAA/NIT tourney selection (not the only one of course). People's "opinions" cannot change those facts.

Sure, there is an art and guesswork involved in scheduling (ideally you want to play a team that is not that good but at the same time will win a lot of games but after that you should play decent teams from good conferences) but to take an extreme example you would end up 250+ in the RPI if you win 20 games against the worst teams at home. If you went 9-20 on the road against best teams you would end up in the top 30.

In fact if Kansas went 7-22 last year (toughest SOS), they would have been in the top 100 RPI. A 7-22 Kansas team would have a better RPI than a 25-4 Texas Southern team (weakest SOS)!!!!!! I realize I am conflating non-conf with conf games but you should still get the point.

We should know that the A-10 will be a little worse than the C-USA was last year and try to schedule accordingly. Overall, SLU has done a truly excellent job scheduling. I complained about too many cupcakes two years ago but many people argued that we needed that early break (and ultimately, while I would still argue the scheduling could have been a bit better, the overall schedule was fine).

The fact is that every year a good team schedules below themselves and ends up not getting a bid (New Mexico last year would not have gotten an at large bid because of their instant tooth-decay scheduling at home--the fact that they were a decent team makes the importance of scheduling at least moderately difficult opponents even more obvious).

Also, I never understood the psychology of fans wanting to play cupcakes. It seems that in nearly every other aspect of Billiken fandom there is a lot of excesssive bravado (facilities, recruiting, hiring) about being the best. So why is scheduling so different?

[VTIME]

Nice essay. What was your thesis statement?

[ACE]

As scheduling pertains to SLU, coming off a 9-21 season and heading into a season with an inexperienced squad, it is wise to schedule our share of cupcakes early. When Tommie, KL and co. are juniors and seniors, then I think we should have a tougher non-conference schedule, because we should be in a better position to win some of those games. Until then, these guys need to win a few games early and get some confidence. There will be plenty of tough opponents throughout the season like Iowa, Gonzaga, SIU, Xavier, Dayton, etc.

[Iggy]

We should schedule Vashon every year.

[Billiken Rich]

Scheduling is an art. We've had both schedules that were too tough and schedules that hurt us to the point where 22 wins left us in the NIT. Cupcakes don't appeal to me in most cases.

[Billiken Rich]

They'd be better than Augustana......

[kwyjibo]

I am not saying every game should be top 25 and I think we are actually in agreement. The upcoming schedule will likely be fine as we both mention, particularly if they don't smear too much frosting on the cupcakes they schedule (and learn to have just 2 or 3).

While it may be a valid point to ease into this year, my impression of Tommie and Kevin is that while they have some things to learn about the intensity of D-1, that they are pretty mature performers. I doubt they will learn more by playing Savannah State or Texas Southern than a mediocre mid-major that will hang around the whole game (and possibly beat SLU). Obi will have some physical rust but that can be handled through getting him time in any type of game. I wouldn't worry about coddling them. They can learn and grow a lot more against better competition (win or lose).

[ACE]

>I am not saying every game should be top 25 and I think we

>are actually in agreement. The upcoming schedule will

>likely be fine as we both mention, particularly if they

>don't smear too much frosting on the cupcakes they schedule

>(and learn to have just 2 or 3).

>

>While it may be a valid point to ease into this year, my

>impression of Tommie and Kevin is that while they have some

>things to learn about the intensity of D-1, that they are

>pretty mature performers. I doubt they will learn more by

>playing Savannah State or Texas Southern than a mediocre

>mid-major that will hang around the whole game (and possibly

>beat SLU). Obi will have some physical rust but that can be

>handled through getting him time in any type of game. I

>wouldn't worry about coddling them. They can learn and grow

>a lot more against better competition (win or lose).

>

>

I think we are actually in agreement on a lot of points. I don't envision more than 3-4 "cupcakes." Hell some of these so-called "cupcake" games have been tough for us to win in recent years - Eastern Kentucky, Arkansas-Little Rock, SEMO, for example.

I think there are different degrees of "cupcake." Scheduling is an art and I'm not advocating a team in the 300 RPI like Savannah State, but I think there is something a little more sensible. We have to have a certain number of home games where we aren't obligated to schedule a return game. If we can do a few home and homes with the likes of Arizona, Iowa and Gonzaga, then great.

Good "cupcakes" would be teams like Eastern Illinois, Arkansas State, etc., who would not require a return game and would probably have an RPI 175-225. Those are the type of games we should win at home, they won't kill you as badly in the RPI like Savannah, and you don't have to play them on the road the following year.

[ACE]

>Scheduling is an art. We've had both schedules that were

>too tough and schedules that hurt us to the point where 22

>wins left us in the NIT. Cupcakes don't appeal to me in

>most cases.

When did 22 wins leave us in the NIT? In the 1980s, when we were in the MCC? Because of our conference affiliation now, 22 wins would get us in.

[VTIME]

Schedule as many cupcakes as possible. When you get wins early in the season, they cant take them from you late. We need close to a 20 win season, maybe a .500 record in the conference to make the NCAA tourney. Nothing wrong with scheduling cupcakes. If you schedule teams with good RPI's, but you keep losing to them, it really doesnt help you a whole lot.

[kshoe]

Since 2000 the following teams have won 20 or more games and not gone to the NCAA tourney.

Dayton

Memphis

Southern Miss

Tulane

Xavier

22 wins will most likely get us in but 20 is not a lock.

We should schedule the toughest opponents we can given our desire to play home and homes with most teams. You'll never know how good you really are by playing a bunch of cupcakes non-conference and even worse you won't be ready for conference play if you do so. The K-States of the world that rack up impressive non-conference records seldom do well in conference.

[VTIME]

Having a bad non-conference record wont prepare you for conference play either. Lets just get 20 wins first and see if we get in. I'd rather go 20-7 and get snubbed by the selection committe than got 16-11 and no we wont get into the NCAA's

[kshoe]

had played a tougher schedule last year they would have been prepared for PB.

[UE_BBALL]

You guys should add a team like Evansville to your schedule. We aren't doing too well lately but we would offer up a better RPI than some of the other patsies on the schedule. A lot of people here would like to see UE start playing some of the teams they used to compete with. A somewhat regional matchup like that also might be more appealing to SLU fans than a team from further away.

[SLUMS81]

After last year, a lot of teams might consider SLU as a cupcake.

We had a lot of close, 'quality' losses last year - all of which added up to a miserable season. We will have a young team this fall, and a slightly softer nonconference schedule with more wins than losses prior to conference play might prove to be a good thing.

[VTIME]

They played and Niagara Falls, who was ranked #1 in the nation in 2 of the 4 major national polls. They were led by Paul Harris, a 5 star player who is ranked as one of the top 10 players in the 2006 class. He and Bobby Hill went back and forth the whole game. The 6'6 Harris scored 25 and Bobby Hill had 18. There's no getting ready for Tyler Hansborough especially when the refs are going to call everything.

[VTIME]

bump

[Box and Won]

It would be an easy road trip for fans of both programs as well.

[billiken_roy]

nothing i can think of i'd rather do on a saturday than drive to evansville indiana. a trip to chicago or memphis to play the likes of memphis or depaul would be quite a letdown comparatively.

[UE_BBALL]

>nothing i can think of i'd rather do on a saturday than

>drive to evansville indiana. a trip to chicago or memphis

>to play the likes of memphis or depaul would be quite a

>letdown comparatively.

Notice I didn't say anything about you dropping big teams from your schedule, merely that a team like Evansville would probably be better for your schedule than some of the other craps that you play. Do you have reading comprehension problems?

[billiken_roy]

and my response wasnt to your post. i responded to box alluding to playing a home and home series with evansville. if you believe that evansville is willing to ONLY play here at st louis, i am all for the game instead of the gimmee games with franklyn state college or whomever they schedule this year. i just dont want to play at evansville. if that is part of the deal, then i say we pass.

[UE_BBALL]

I apologize, I hadn't seen Box's post. I'm not sure if UE would go with just a road game or maybe look for a 2 for 1 and come to St. Louis twice, but I would think any game there could be a benefit as the MVC tournament is held there and any extra chances to feel more comfortable in an arena seems worthwhile. I hope it happens.