2004-05 Bills get poor letters grade (lengthy)

[Quality Is Job 1]

I, like most of the posters here, expected the 2004-05 Billikens to be considerably better than this. After all, they had last season's leading scorer (Reggie Bryant), a 2nd-team all conference pick, and last season's leading rebounder (Tom Frericks), who led the conference in field-goal percentage, returning. But now it appears that the seasons that Bryant and Frericks had last year were largely a product of Josh Fisher's and Chris Sloan's (and Ross Varner's) experience.

Every year I mentally note the number of "returning letters." It's the sum of "letters" each player on the team has earned; a player gets a letter for each season he plays (not redshirts) at the school (as I'm sure most of you already knows). The stat doesn't mean everything, else the 2003-04 Missouri Tigers wouldn't have failed so miserably (though their problem was the lack of a point guard) and the 2002-03 Syracuse Orangemen wouldn't have won the National Championship with all those youngsters -- among many other pertinent examples. However, it's probably a good yardstick of how a team will come together.

This year the Bills returned 9 letters (two for Ohanon, one for Bryant, one for Frericks &l;just four combined for the seniors!&r;, two for Drejaj, and one each for Johnson, Vouyoukas, and Clarke). If a team had three four-year recruits in each class (and a fourth freshman), it would have 18 letters (nine for the three seniors, six for the juniors, and three for the sophomores). (In three years, this hypothetical average team would have 21 returning letters.)

What it means is that there's continuity. Players have gotten accustomed to the system and to each other. And the more letters a team has, the more one might expect it to flourish. It helped significantly last year that Sloan and Fisher were playing their fourth seasons together (and Varner was there for the last three of those). It helped the team overcome the adjustment to a new system as a result of a coaching change during their time. Heck, last season the squad had a fourth-year walk-on (Phillip Hunt)! This season's three seniors are playing just their second season together, one of the juniors is a newcomer, and even the walk-ons are young (two sophomores and a freshman).

Next season (and I'm presuming Darren Clarke will transfer after this season because he's ridden the pine, been passed over by freshmen, and has more competition coming next season), the Bills will have 12 returning letters (three for Drejaj, one for Newborne &l;still just four for the seniors!&r;, two each for Johnson and Vouyoukas, and one each for Husak, Polk, Meyer, and Brown). &l;For comparison, the 2003-04 squad, which made the NIT and won a game, had 10 returning letters (three each for Fisher and Sloan, two for Varner, one for Ohanon, and one for Drejaj), but it may be important to note that the seniors combined for eight of them.&r;

The 2006-07 squad, the one most of us point to as when the Bills should reach the NCAA Tournament, else Brad Soderberg's job is probably in jeopardy, will see 18 returning letters (three each for Johnson and Vouyoukas, two each for Husak, Polk, Meyer, and Brown, and one each for Liddell, Lisch, and two recruits to be named later). &l;Note that that's presuming the departure of Clarke after this season and that the schollie won't be filled this summer.&r;

Thoughts?

[TEE]

that is a great way to put into perspective of how our upperclassmen and underclassmen seem like oil and water.

[Cowboy]

The concept of continuity makes sense to me and I am not discounting it.

But so also does the ability to put the ball in the goal which I think is key to our problems, but maybe the two are related more than I first thought.

[tseugnekillib]

Coach Soderberg has stated on numerous occasions that you win and win big with a seniors and juniors, particularly redshirted seniors and juniors.

Soderberg's goal is to develope his SLU roster in that direction.

If he passes on a juco signing this Spring, and goes for prep schoolers and/or high school players, I believe this indicates that he is patiently driving for that in-the-system veteran lineup. I also believe Soderberg would be willing to save one scholarship for next year, when only VN and AD are seniors.

thicks, I think your "letters" formula is saying the exact same thing, except you fail to give credit for a redshirted season. I think a redshirted season is a positive and that you should give it some value. Perhaps, a half-letter value!

[Quality Is Job 1]

I agree that a redshirted season may be a benefit to some players and, indirectly, to the program, but I can't really account for it in my "formula." The problem is that the role of a player in his redshirt year is different. In practice he's on the scout team and rarely plays with his future unit/rotation. Furthermore, he doesn't get the feel of the system at game speed, with out-for-blood rivals breathing down his neck. Related to that is that his teammates don't spend that redshirt season learning to trust that player and know what he'll do on the court against true opponents.

[Taj79]

I think there's value to your system but I'd offer something that I used in a thread elsewhere ... namely perspective.

The letter counting is good but I don't see it as a stand-alone value. It has to be added into the overall perspective of a team and that means a whole bunch of complicating factors must come into play as well. As Cowboy notes, what if a couple of these lettermen can't shoot?!?! All one has to do is look at Drejaj for that persepctive put into reality.

What if three or four of your "high number" lettermen are stiffs? I'm all for the continuity to help with the program but these would be worthless if the four seniors all had four letters and they were all as productive as Ross Varner. I would argue that those 16 letters might not add up to the production one freshman like Danny Brown is contributing.

Is your formula important? I think absoluetly so .. but its not a stand along, "go to" indicator as it is a part of the overall equation that is needed at a SLU. As you pointed out, it was not needed at Syracuse af ew years ago to equate into a national title. But, as stated in antoehr thread, SLU is not a "typical" college basketball program, is it?

[slufanskip]

I think SLU and we as fans need to quit seeing SLU as "not your typical basketball program" ... we are the typical basketball program ... just not an excellent one. Though I believe UB is putting the peices together to be an excellent program.

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[BillikenButch]

I agree. We offer as many scholarships as every other program and our academic standards are shared by dozens of other schools. The mythology that we are different and this is the reason we have not had major success is fanciful rationalization.

[cheeseman]

Skip - I agree with you. I think some posters actually like to minimize the Bills. It seems that they like the Bills to be seen as some underachieving program - almost like they get their charitable fix by saying they are supporters. I for one want this self depreciating attitude to disappear and we have to start holding ourselves and those associated with the program accountable.

[billiken_roy]

cheeseman, while i agree it is only to a degree.

anyone notice we see or hear very little from biondi or levick. wouldnt it be nice to see them step up during a difficult time and pledge their support and offer additional assistance in some manner?

it would be a huge gesture to just announce the building scenario is going forward. maybe biondi could assure the region that he still believes the billikens can and will be a top 25 program. say something. but it sure looks like brad stands alone imo. biondi hasnt been at the last couple of games. levick didnt show at the super bowl party sunday while i was there. if progress is going to happen, it is unreasonable to expect brad to accomplish it all alone.

[Taj79]

... but as broy points out, you just can't say you're going to be a "top 25" program and not commit something to it. Xavier built the Cintas Center. Temple built the Apollo. Pitt build the Peterson Center. Gonzaga built a new building. This is not to suggest that building a building is it. Marquette built a practice facility and kept the Bradley Center. While it might be unfair to comapre us to Temple or Pitt, it is not outside the realm to compare us to the others.

What this does, I think, is change what has been a way of predominant thinking on this board. Last year, I said it was unfair not to allow for some rust on Reggie as he transfered in and got back to playing live games. Screw that, kid transfers, he better be ready to go on the opening tip then. In my new way of thinking, VN and TF become failures if they ain't putting up numbers by at least the second half of the season. There is no room for Ross Varners and Philip Hunts on the Billiken roster. Kids like DC are not an option in their third year if they've spent the first two years picking splinters. Run them off so they don't occupy space -- recognizing that there is a need for practice players and role players. One project is okay .... two are not. Out of Soderberg's two full recruting classes, he has DP and DB and LM to show for it with IV as the project/work in progress. And I'm not real sure if the first three are role players or real players. That is unacceptable.

[Billiken Rich]

To be fair I believe I did see Cheryl at the party but I got there very early. I saw Cheryl at the game on the sideline near center court screaming like a banchee with a another younger lady. I also ran into Luke Meyer after the game in the garage and was able to give him a thumbs up.

[Quality Is Job 1]

>I think there's value to your system but I'd offer something

>that I used in a thread elsewhere ... namely perspective.

>

>The letter counting is good but I don't see it as a

>stand-alone value. It has to be added into the overall

>perspective of a team and that means a whole bunch of

>complicating factors must come into play as well. As Cowboy

>notes, what if a couple of these lettermen can't shoot?!?!

>All one has to do is look at Drejaj for that persepctive put

>into reality.

>

>What if three or four of your "high number" lettermen are

>stiffs? I'm all for the continuity to help with the program

>but these would be worthless if the four seniors all had

>four letters and they were all as productive as Ross Varner.

> I would argue that those 16 letters might not add up to the

>production one freshman like Danny Brown is contributing.

>

>Is your formula important? I think absoluetly so .. but its

>not a stand alone, "go to" indicator as it is a part of the

>overall equation that is needed at a SLU. As you pointed

>out, it was not needed at Syracuse a few years ago to equate

>into a national title.

I know my post was long, but please note that I did say in my second paragraph, "The stat doesn't mean everything.... However, it's probably a good yardstick of how a team will come together." I also referenced the 2002-03 Syracuse squad in that paragraph.

[cheeseman]

Roy, be careful about what you ask for - Alden just did that for Quinn and he got paid back with the worst lose of the season. I do think that something should be said about the arena - even if it is not that earth shattering - some news spun in a positive light would be a morale pick up.

[SLUAvtr]

I can attest that Cheryl was at the game though. She also had just come back from a recruiting stint earlier that week, as one of my buddies flew her around. I think it's truly Biondi who's dropping the major ball. Of course, he's probably too busy trying to find a way to get out of the red in his checkbook from years of poor funds management......yet he can still build a research center.....hmmmmmm......

"It's a 106 miles to Chicago...we have a full tank of gas, half a pack of cigarettes, it's dark, and we're wearing sunglasses.....HIT IT!"

Blues Brothers

[billiken_roy]

the general fund is not in the red. it isnt what it was before the market drop but we are still like the third richest fund of all the private catholic schools in the country i believe.

[Taj79]

.. that's why some of the same references appear in my response. I think you're points are well taken .... but cannot be taken without a lump or two of some sugar in that coffee along with some cream and maybe some irish cream flavoring ....

In other words, a valid point but not a stand alone point in my estimation.

[BillikenButch]

Do tell...what balls has he dropped?

As I see it he has:

1. Hired a dynamic, up and coming AD

2. Signed to a long term contract a coach that most agree is a great fit for SLU and will be successful

3. Committed to an on campus athletic facility

4. Improved the image of the University

5. Increased the academic image of the University

6. Attends many of the games of the premier athletic team.

I suppose he has not:

1. Improved athletic marketing

2. Raised all the funds for the stadium

3. Attended every game

Please add other short comings so we can assess his performance.

[slufanskip]

Cheryl's daughter was with her at the game ... and by the way she is hot. Cheryl had to be somewhere with her right after the game.

Official Billikens.com sponsor of H. Waldman

[jjray]

Thicks, I like your "letters earned" formula as a team evaluation tool. One conclusion from applying the formula to Brad's current team at SLU is that the Bills are light on letters earned which may help explain away the poor performance. But 2 years down the road, the pressure should increase on Brad to produce as the team shall be stocked with veterans in his system. Are Polk-Liddell-Lisch going to become Highmark-Claggett-Waldman? We all hope so.

[tseugnekillib]

thicks.....if your saying that Fish, Sloan, Varner, Drejaj, Izik, et al didn't learn to trust Reggie Bryant during his redshirt year....then I disagree. I'm not sure Fish et al knew that RB was going to be a 2nd team all-conference player, but they knew that RB was going to be very good!