The Wiz's Beginning of the Season Forecast

[The Wiz]

A little late for a preseason forecast...so this will be a beginning of the season forecast.  I have been busy upgrading my computer program.  Using some new and modified algorithms. ....also I have added some additional data sources.  I have back tested the system on a number of games from last season.  The results seem to be spreads that are a little close to the actual results and better forecasting outcomes. This year with very little data, I have back tested  the Bills opening game....If you remember , I had a spread of 18. We won by 12 which isn't bad for a first game.  I pointed out in the post game comments that we could have easily hit 18pts  and more.  So I ran the same data with the new system yesterday and the back test showed a spread of 13.   I also ran the FAU/ Loy-C pregame . Vegas had a 5-6 pt spread...FAU won by 13...The new program came up with FAU by 9.  In any case the new " Not ready for prime time" program will makes its game spread debut for the Ill St. game sometime in the next 24 hours.... Stay tuned.

Before  we get started ,  let me put in  a paragraph for the newbies , who don't know what I do...

 This is the first of 2 forecasts....the preseason and pre conference  .    This preseason prediction is based on a Bayesian model....the next one on real data.  I use a letter grade system which groups similar teams together.  As the season starts to unfold,  I use the first 8 games to meld the Bayesian model with  the real data model. As I  gradually integrate the real data with the forecasting tool I eventually drop  the Bayesian model (after the SIU-C game on Dec 2).   As the season goes on and I have more data , I become more accurate ( at least that is the way it is suppose to work).

A couple of notes here...SIU-C was the 8th game last year too, one day later on Dec 3rd.   SIU-C is the 8th game because Linmo doesn't figure into the data set.  I only do D1 games.  Also,  @billikenbillI will try not to use the word Bayesian again this year after this post.

Let's start with the A-10  forecast...which will include info from the computer upgrade....

 

1. VCU................B+

2. SLU................B

3. Day.................B

4. Ford................B

5. Dav..................B-

6. Duq.................B-

7.  Rich................B-

8.  GM................C+

9.  St. J...............C+

10. GW................C

11  St. B..............C

12. UMass..........C

13. Loy_C...........C-

14  LaS...............D+

15  RI..................D

Season record

Best Case......25-6

Worst case.....18-13

Most probable....22-9

So what does this mean?  Most likely the A10 is a 1 bid league with a  40% chance for a 2nd bid.  VCU is in the best spot right now and they only have a fair chance to make it.  SLU, Day  and For all have a lesser chance .  And Dav , Duq  and Rich are long shots. In order for the Bills to be on target for a postseason bid they need to move up to B+ by the first of the year. It is possible,  as we have a soft schedule with some bumps in the road.  If we can navigate those bumps...at least a split...SIU, Drake NC St and maybe Wich St. in the OOC and in conference  with Day and VCU we will be in a good position.

I spoke with a bookie in Vegas and his take from the Strip on the A10 was that after the Day injury it is a 3 team race...SLU, Day and VCU.  The team that is the hungriest will take the prize. I think if we can pick up at least one of the last 2 players pending we have as good a shot as anyone.  The computer right now is assuming we don't get anymore players.  

Bottom line...A lot of doom and gloom coming into this season.  But the fact of the matter is that the A10 is weaker this year. Last year there were no Ds or Fs in the league... this year the Ds are back.   There are always some A teams in the A10 ....not this year.    What there is though is parity...a whole lot of parity.  If we can stay relatively healthy and add at least 1 more player and continue to play high energy ball and extend  our low TO rate ... We can separate ourselves from the pack.  Things could be better than you think.

We win because we play together as a team.....John Havlicek

[Billiken Rich]

Always love your algorithms!

[ACE]

I saw your reference to the "Day injury" - I had noticed that Malachi Smith didn't play much in the opener, but didn't really think much of it. Wow, out for the year. Reminds me of the Perkins injury - it changes the outlook right at the start of the season.

[Soderball]

Where's the ILST prediction thread? Give the people what we want, Wiz.

[The Wiz]

7 minutes ago, Soderball said:

Where's the ILST prediction thread? Give the people what we want, Wiz.

Is it 24 hours already ??  Seems like only 17 min.  The computer is busy running simulations on what MBMs do when not on Billiken board.

[Billiken Rich]

5 minutes ago, The Wiz said:

The computer is busy running simulations on what MBMs do when not on Billiken board.

Guessing your computer is going to need some canned air and a defrag after that......

[juniorbill76]

2 minutes ago, Billiken Rich said:

Guessing your computer is going to need some canned air and a defrag after that......

[Billiken Rich]

2 minutes ago, juniorbill76 said:

Hey @SluSignGuy how about giving us some more "likes." This post deserves one and I'm out.   Got used to discord and even youtube where you can like stuff all you want.  It doesn't make sense to limit likes now that there is no troll/bad post buttons.....just an idea....

[Lord Elrond]

22 minutes ago, The Wiz said:

The computer is busy running simulations on what MBMs do when not on Billiken board.

YIKES!!! You will fry the computer’s CPU!!!

[billikenbill]

3 hours ago, The Wiz said:

A little late for a preseason forecast...so this will be a beginning of the season forecast.  I have been busy upgrading my computer program.  Using some new and modified algorithms. ....also I have added some additional data sources.  I have back tested the system on a number of games from last season.  The results seem to be spreads that are a little close to the actual results and better forecasting outcomes. This year with very little data, I have back tested  the Bills opening game....If you remember , I had a spread of 18. We won by 12 which isn't bad for a first game.  I pointed out in the post game comments that we could have easily hit 18pts  and more.  So I ran the same data with the new system yesterday and the back test showed a spread of 13.   I also ran the FAU/ Loy-C pregame . Vegas had a 5-6 pt spread...FAU won by 13...The new program came up with FAU by 9.  In any case the new " Not ready for prime time" program will makes its game spread debut for the Ill St. game sometime in the next 24 hours.... Stay tuned.

Before  we get started ,  let me put in  a paragraph for the newbies , who don't know what I do...

 This is the first of 2 forecasts....the preseason and pre conference  .    This preseason prediction is based on a Bayesian model....the next one on real data.  I use a letter grade system which groups similar teams together.  As the season starts to unfold,  I use the first 8 games to meld the Bayesian model with  the real data model. As I  gradually integrate the real data with the forecasting tool I eventually drop  the Bayesian model (after the SIU-C game on Dec 2).   As the season goes on and I have more data , I become more accurate ( at least that is the way it is suppose to work).

A couple of notes here...SIU-C was the 8th game last year too, one day later on Dec 3rd.   SIU-C is the 8th game because Linmo doesn't figure into the data set.  I only do D1 games.  Also,  @billikenbillI will try not to use the word Bayesian again this year after this post.

Let's start with the A-10  forecast...which will include info from the computer upgrade....

 

1. VCU................B+

2. SLU................B

3. Day.................B

4. Ford................B

5. Dav..................B-

6. Duq.................B-

7.  Rich................B-

8.  GM................C+

9.  St. J...............C+

10. GW................C

11  St. B..............C

12. UMass..........C

13. Loy_C...........C-

14  LaS...............D+

15  RI..................D

Season record

Best Case......25-6

Worst case.....18-13

Most probable....22-9

So what does this mean?  Most likely the A10 is a 1 bid league with a  40% chance for a 2nd bid.  VCU is in the best spot right now and they only have a fair chance to make it.  SLU, Day  and For all have a lesser chance .  And Dav , Duq  and Rich are long shots. In order for the Bills to be on target for a postseason bid they need to move up to B+ by the first of the year. It is possible,  as we have a soft schedule with some bumps in the road.  If we can navigate those bumps...at least a split...SIU, Drake NC St and maybe Wich St. in the OOC and in conference  with Day and VCU we will be in a good position.

I spoke with a bookie in Vegas and his take from the Strip on the A10 was that after the Day injury it is a 3 team race...SLU, Day and VCU.  The team that is the hungriest will take the prize. I think if we can pick up at least one of the last 2 players pending we have as good a shot as anyone.  The computer right now is assuming we don't get anymore players.  

Bottom line...A lot of doom and gloom coming into this season.  But the fact of the matter is that the A10 is weaker this year. Last year there were no Ds or Fs in the league... this year the Ds are back.   There are always some A teams in the A10 ....not this year.    What there is though is parity...a whole lot of parity.  If we can stay relatively healthy and add at least 1 more player and continue to play high energy ball and extend  our low TO rate ... We can separate ourselves from the pack.  Things could be better than you think.

We win because we play together as a team.....John Havlicek

You got it wrong The Wiz. It’s officially basketball season on the Billiken board when you discuss the Bayesian model. Can’t start the season without it so the newbies understand. You’re the best in the business!! Keep it up!!!