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The Wiz

The Wiz's Final Wrap Up For 2020

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Hi Wiz, when you make a preseason forecast you plainly cannot anticipate that two of the mainstay players of the team will become sidelined before entering conference play. You clearly mentioned that the forecast was a best case scenario with all going well. I think you were NOT too optimistic, I think your preliminary forecast was quite correct, with the exception of the absence of Jimerson and Thatch, which you could not possibly have anticipated.

I think the amazing fact of this season is that we were largely able to cover the loss of Jimerson and Thatch through the development of other players. As a result our team will be a lot stronger and more capable next season when Jimerson and Thatch rejoin playing status. I am on record about my views on the performance we can expect from Thatch next season, no need to  repeat them here.

So, wonderful preliminary forecast, and a very nice and surprising season full of developments. We probably did a LOT better than could have been expected after the loss of Jimerson and Thatch this season. Thank you for what you do, it is wonderful work.

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10 minutes ago, Old guy said:

Hi Wiz, when you make a preseason forecast you plainly cannot anticipate that two of the mainstay players of the team will become sidelined before entering conference play. You clearly mentioned that the forecast was a best case scenario with all going well. I think you were NOT too optimistic, I think your preliminary forecast was quite correct, with the exception of the absence of Jimerson and Thatch, which you could not possibly have anticipated.

I think the amazing fact of this season is that we were largely able to cover the loss of Jimerson and Thatch through the development of other players. As a result our team will be a lot stronger and more capable next season when Jimerson and Thatch rejoin playing status. I am on record about my views on the performance we can expect from Thatch next season, no need to  repeat them here.

So, wonderful preliminary forecast, and a very nice and surprising season full of developments. We probably did a LOT better than could have been expected after the loss of Jimerson and Thatch this season. Thank you for what you do, it is wonderful work.

First, the computer did not know Jimerson and Thatch would be injured...But it does figure there will be injuries ...just as it does for other teams.  When there are injuries there are new players who come in and pick up the slack ...sometimes it evens out and sometimes it doesn't .  In the Bills case it did ...with more playing time for Hargrove and Perkins....to use the phrase  from my original post...best case scenario ...this truly was the best case scenario...lose 2 key players  and come in on target with a successful season...22-8.

Second , this is not just a preliminary forecast...it is ongoing forecast using real data after the preseason round one prediction.  I am amazed that on the preseason there was a 93% success rate. The only miss on that forecast  was Dayton, who the computer had as a good team but not great....but again it was preseason...As soon as the computer saw just a few games ( 8 ) it immediately moved Dayton to an A.. Back to the Bills...it was kind of the same thing. The Bills started out as a B- team ...on the 8th game it moved them to a B and then from the 8th game on till the end we stayed at B.  We were a B when Jimerson and Thatch played and we stayed at B  after they were hurt. One last thing ...even though I show 3 rounds , those that read my posts know that it is ongoing process....I usually put the grade in every spread thread post. The 3 Rounds are just key points in the season to stop and take a temperature to see how we are doing vs the A-10...plus are we on track for post season.  ...A- or higher usually means Dancing.

After I make forecasts , I try to go over them and find what is right and what I missed.  I critique it ...then tweak it.  In the off season , I rework the model...this year the big change was 3 pt shooting ...3 P % down substantially.  However as the season progressed,  3pt shooting improved.   It changed the game a lot.  Next year it will be down again ...but not as much.  By the 21-22 season things should be stable enough to make the forecasts even more accurate.

Glad you read and like my stuff.  Looking forward to a great year for Team Blue.

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The Wiz,

I've been tweaking my model over the last week and in looking ahead to next season, I've run this simulation 1100 times and the data is leading to a surprising result.

Regardless of how many times I run it, it keeps coming up with the Billikens having a record of... 40-0!!! Yes, my model says, if we avoid major injuries, suspensions, S-3, and so on, we win it all!!

OK, in the interest of full disclosure, the model comes from my imagination after watching all the highlight clips from the season that just ended so maybe it's skewed a bit. I do see next season as one which will be full of "Jam Time!" and "Whistle, foul, count the basket!" calls. Let me just say that if we do go 40-0, I hope someone will say, "Bang, he got it!"

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44 minutes ago, billikenbill said:

The Wiz,

I've been tweaking my model over the last week and in looking ahead to next season, I've run this simulation 1100 times and the data is leading to a surprising result.

Regardless of how many times I run it, it keeps coming up with the Billikens having a record of... 40-0!!! Yes, my model says, if we avoid major injuries, suspensions, S-3, and so on, we win it all!!

OK, in the interest of full disclosure, the model comes from my imagination after watching all the highlight clips from the season that just ended so maybe it's skewed a bit. I do see next season as one which will be full of "Jam Time!" and "Whistle, foul, count the basket!" calls. Let me just say that if we do go 40-0, I hope someone will say, "Bang, he got it!"

Andy, if we go 40-0 you'll be elected to the Bills HOF. 

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1 hour ago, slu72 said:

Andy, if we go 40-0 you'll be elected to the Bills HOF. 

That would be a great honor! Can you imagine my disappointment if we lose the opener then reel off 39 straight?

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-great stuff, Wiz - one question, your line on The Bills versus SVU on a neutral court? guessing SVU by 6 but all it represents is a missed opportunity versus my guy as we would have won

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If the Bills played Day today in Brooklyn....it would be Day over the Bills by 8.'

Of course you know , there would have been 1 more game before we played Day.

St. B was favored by 4 over GM....Had St. B won by double digits and VCU won their game over UMass...then...

VCU would have played Day.... and we would have played the Bonnies

If Day  beats VCU in a close game and we crush the Bonnies again by double digits...

then the Day vs Bills game becomes close...Day would still be favored...but it would be close.

Maybe this time the Day player misses in OT and we win...

Sadly , we will never know.

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-thank you, we wouldn't have needed OT to get the win

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Do not abandon all hope, keep a tiny sliver of hope alive that this thing will pass over promptly and that the tournaments will be played starting where they were left. Is this possible, yes, is it likely to happen, probably not...

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