The Wiz Posted December 6, 2015 Share Posted December 6, 2015 Since neither team has a game till next Sat , I can post this early. Remember in an earlier post I said when I get to Dec 6 I would be able to switch to a real data model. Oops......I have enough data on the Bills as planned BUT ALAM has played only 4 D1 games. to this point. Who plays only 4 D1 games in a month? So I have mixed in some of the forecasting model one last time. I should be at full strength for the rest of the season. So another stinky game against a good (back to B+ ) WSU team. For those wanting a post game analysis go to the WSU thread. On to ALAM.... The Bills have fallen to C. ALAM is a D+ team but as noted above the Bulldogs final grade is not in yet. If the Bills take this team lightly, they will lose. A&M lost to Murray St on Nov 28....63-61 at Murray St. . While this isn't as good a team as past MSU teams (C+ ). They are better than SLU. So there is the warning..Don't take this team lightly. An additional note, the MSU game was their last game...They have a 2 week layoff by the time they play the Bills. Here is what we need to do to win.... Slashlines AM....39% / 29% SLU..47 / 35 / 70 SLU reb...35+ AND out reb AM TOs...13 or less for SLU...protect the ball Bottomline.......If the "real " Bills show up we should win this game handily. If not..many more handwringing threads will appear. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Taj79 Posted December 6, 2015 Share Posted December 6, 2015 I can see the Bills winning the next four (although Carbondale is 8 and 1). Even doing that it will not mask the problems this team still seems to have. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Wiz Posted December 6, 2015 Author Share Posted December 6, 2015 I can see the Bills winning the next four (although Carbondale is 8 and 1). Even doing that it will not mask the problems this team still seems to have. The next 4 games are....D+ D- C+ B-...so yes a chance to sweep...however no easy ones except Tenn -Mtn... Should be 4-0 im the next 2 weeks...however if they play like 1st half Morehead then 1-3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Old guy Posted December 6, 2015 Share Posted December 6, 2015 Not a comforting thought is it? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
billikenbill Posted December 7, 2015 Share Posted December 7, 2015 Not a comforting thought is it? This program is so dead, corpses laugh at it. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
almaman Posted December 7, 2015 Share Posted December 7, 2015 I can see the Bills winning the next four (although Carbondale is 8 and 1). Even doing that it will not mask the problems this team still seems to have. holy sh*t someone around here has a good record? I assume they ain't played anyone. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
majerus mojo Posted December 7, 2015 Share Posted December 7, 2015 I can see the Bills winning the next four (although Carbondale is 8 and 1). Even doing that it will not mask the problems this team still seems to have. I'll prep for MB to bang his Crews drum one last time before we get crushed by real teams Also what are the actual odds we win the next four games? Wiz? Four games in a row, even vs. no ones (see our 4-0 start) and I might have a glass of kool-aid myself before we get dismantled again. Crews sucks Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
majerus mojo Posted December 7, 2015 Share Posted December 7, 2015 We've scored 57, 46, and 53 points our last three games Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Wiz Posted December 7, 2015 Author Share Posted December 7, 2015 I'll prep for MB to bang his Crews drum one last time before we get crushed by real teams Also what are the actual odds we win the next four games? Wiz? Four games in a row, even vs. no ones (see our 4-0 start) and I might have a glass of kool-aid myself before we get dismantled again. Crews sucks We will be favored in the next 3 games....if we win them by the spread we will be favored in the 4th game (SIU-C)....so the chances are fairly good. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Wiz Posted December 7, 2015 Author Share Posted December 7, 2015 We've scored 57, 46, and 53 points our last three games These point totals are against some pretty good competition....A+ ( final 4 type team) , B- and B+....We were able to hang with them all for awhile and then had blackouts in all the games where we had no points for an extended period of time. We will have more points in the next 4 games Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hsmith19 Posted December 7, 2015 Share Posted December 7, 2015 The next 4 games are....D+ D- C+ B-...so yes a chance to sweep...however no easy ones except Tenn -Mtn... Should be 4-0 im the next 2 weeks...however if they play like 1st half Morehead then 1-3 I can't imagine them playing like 1st half Morehead and beating anyone. Even Rockhurst could beat you if you just hand the ball off to them one out of every two trips down the court. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
3star_recruit Posted December 7, 2015 Share Posted December 7, 2015 I can't imagine them playing like 1st half Morehead and beating anyone. Even Rockhurst could beat you if you just hand the ball off to them one out of every two trips down the court. Rockhurst doesn't have the athletes to stop our best athletes from getting where they want to on the floor. It's like a college wide receiver. He may be able to run right past a D- defensive back but against a B+ defender he's going to have to master some basic routes. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hsmith19 Posted December 7, 2015 Share Posted December 7, 2015 You think our athletes knew where they wanted to get on the floor in the first half of that game? I saw little evidence of that. It wasn't just that they were being beaten. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Wiz Posted December 13, 2015 Author Share Posted December 13, 2015 Since neither team has a game till next Sat , I can post this early. Remember in an earlier post I said when I get to Dec 6 I would be able to switch to a real data model. Oops......I have enough data on the Bills as planned BUT ALAM has played only 4 D1 games. to this point. Who plays only 4 D1 games in a month? So I have mixed in some of the forecasting model one last time. I should be at full strength for the rest of the season. So another stinky game against a good (back to B+ ) WSU team. For those wanting a post game analysis go to the WSU thread. On to ALAM.... The Bills have fallen to C. ALAM is a D+ team but as noted above the Bulldogs final grade is not in yet. If the Bills take this team lightly, they will lose. A&M lost to Murray St on Nov 28....63-61 at Murray St. . While this isn't as good a team as past MSU teams (C+ ). They are better than SLU. So there is the warning..Don't take this team lightly. An additional note, the MSU game was their last game...They have a 2 week layoff by the time they play the Bills. Here is what we need to do to win.... Slashlines AM....39% / 29% SLU..47 / 35 / 70 SLU reb...35+ AND out reb AM TOs...13 or less for SLU...protect the ball Bottomline.......If the "real " Bills show up we should win this game handily. If not..many more handwringing threads will appear. Nice game for the Bills...was it perfect ...no...but still a nice game...did a lot of things right. Let's look at the numbers........... .................Predicted...................Actual ALAM..........39%/ 29%...........37%/ 33%................Overall pass SLU............47%/ 35%/70%.....41%/ 41%/ 82%.....Overall pass .................Reb..... 35.....................44.......................Pass+ ..................TO 13............................17......................Fail Wait .......were there some typos in those stats ...82%??...44?? No those are real We pretty much did what we were supposed to do on the 2 slashlines which account for the 8 pt spread ...but where did those extra 9 points come from....believe it or not ...foul shooting....The Bills doubled ALAM in FT%...82 to 41...which meant an extra 4 points for the Bills and 5 less for ALAM....and Voila...9 extra points.....and how about those rebounds.....,did I say 44. The only downer was the TOs...17 is still too many....we are averaging over 18/ gm in the last 3 games. Not acceptable. You can get away with it on lower tier teams but that won't fly with good teams. We need to hold TOs to 13 or less. Bottomline...Good effort...did a lot of good things...need to build on this victory and create some momentum. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Old guy Posted December 13, 2015 Share Posted December 13, 2015 Hello Wiz, two stats that I thought should be considered. We had 19 assists during this game, highest number of assists in a game so far this season. I like to follow the assists number as a proxy for how well the team is playing together (selfishness vs unselfishness type score). This is good, particularly if the trend for increasing assists per game continues. We also had the highest number of steals in a game this season, 9. We also out rebounded them. Yes, it was a good game Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoosierPal Posted December 13, 2015 Share Posted December 13, 2015 Interesting stat, right now our best % three point shooter is NOT Michael Crawford. Austin Gillmann is hitting a cool 55% (6 of 11) . Mike is w-a-y back at 41%, (13 of 32). Yeah, I know, sample size, but interesting none the less. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Old guy Posted December 13, 2015 Share Posted December 13, 2015 Another interesting fact about this game is that by Wiz estimates the margin of victory by SLU, provided we played reasonably well, was 8. By teamrankings the margin of victory by SLU (Vegas inspired) was fixed around 6. We won by 18, much better than the estimates. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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