The Wiz Posted November 29, 2015 Share Posted November 29, 2015 First a nice game by the Bills against Lville...the score didn't tell the story of the game...for a recap see Lville by 17 thread ...posts 47 & 51. I think post 51 is interesting...something you won't see elsewhere. On to Morehead.....the battle of the B- teams. Yes, both teams are B-. This should be a tight game. And its not just the grade that is close....take a look at the slashlines SLU......47.3 / 35.1 / 65.2 More.....44.3 / 36 / 66.1 So what do we need to do to win.... Hold Collins to 10 pts Put somebody on the Moon...no, the player Moon...This kid can shoot ( shoot the Moon...OK I will stop) ...over 60% from the field and the arc...leave him open and we lose....hold him to 33 % or less ...arc and field Get 34 rebounds Make the slashline plus 1 extra FT to make 70% This won't ne easy but we should win this game. If we play like we did against Lville we win easy. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Wiz Posted November 30, 2015 Author Share Posted November 30, 2015 One other thing.... Now that WSU is done playing till our game....If the Bills can beat Morehead by 4 or more points I will pick SLU over Wichita. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Old guy Posted November 30, 2015 Share Posted November 30, 2015 Not to antagonize you, but teamrankings has SLU beating Morehead with 4 stars of confidence level. We will see soon enough won't we. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Wiz Posted November 30, 2015 Author Share Posted November 30, 2015 Not to antagonize you, but teamrankings has SLU beating Morehead with 4 stars of confidence level. We will see soon enough won't we. I think we will win the game but it is not a given....4 points with both teams at B- is fairly close. And even closer is the WSU/ SLU game....which at this point is too close to call . which was my purpose for post #2....I see the Morehead game as a tipping point for the WSU game Let's just beat Morehead by 4+ points. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clock_Tower Posted December 1, 2015 Share Posted December 1, 2015 Breaking news!! I just got home after spending the day with the Bills at Chaifetz and looking forward to the latest new offense being rolled out for Wednesday night against Morehead. It's called "Gimmick #6" reflecting our 6th game of the season. I am told we will have a new offense each game of the year. The one consistency with all the offenses, though, is that Reggie is not allowed to shoot anything beyond mid-range shots!! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
slubillikens43 Posted December 1, 2015 Share Posted December 1, 2015 Just curious but what is your grade for Green Bay? They are destroying SIUE in edwardsville. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Wiz Posted December 1, 2015 Author Share Posted December 1, 2015 Just curious but what is your grade for Green Bay? They are destroying SIUE in edwardsville. Green Bay slightly below average team ....C-..... SIU-e....bad team....D-...after I punch the numbers in this may take them down to F+ I had GB winning this one by 3....this should have been a fairly close game considering they were playing at Edwardsville... Except ......... GB had their special game tonight....you know that one where everything comes together. Normal GB slashline....38 / 27 / 69 Tonight's game............53 / 53 / 71 GB is not a very good shooting 3pt team, yet tonight they nearly doubled their accuracy. So the formula is....BT (bad team) + HT ( hot team) = BO (blow out) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hsmith19 Posted December 1, 2015 Share Posted December 1, 2015 So as of right now you have Morehead graded higher than Wichita? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Wiz Posted December 1, 2015 Author Share Posted December 1, 2015 So as of right now you have Morehead graded higher than Wichita? No....Morehead is a B- ... WSU is B...and the Bills B- That is why in post #2 of this thread I said that I thought the WSU game will be even tighter than Morehead because WSU is better than Morehead. Which is also why I thought tomorrow's game was pivotal. The WSU is so close that I think a win tomorrow of 4 or more will give us the edge for Sat against WSU.. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Old guy Posted December 2, 2015 Share Posted December 2, 2015 Makes sense to me. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hsmith19 Posted December 2, 2015 Share Posted December 2, 2015 No....Morehead is a B- ... WSU is B...and the Bills B- That is why in post #2 of this thread I said that I thought the WSU game will be even tighter than Morehead because WSU is better than Morehead. Which is also why I thought tomorrow's game was pivotal. The WSU is so close that I think a win tomorrow of 4 or more will give us the edge for Sat against WSU.. Yes, I understand you're projecting a SLU win by 4 over Morehead and (should your expected outcome there occur) a SLU win by an even smaller outcome over Wichita. I meant to ask whether you have Wichita graded even with Morehead, not lower than. Should SLU win by your expected margin, that should not boost SLU or devalue Morehead to any measurable degree. Which means projecting a Wichita loss by an even smaller margin must make those three teams extremely evenly matched. I am very surprised you're predicting all this and yet have Wichita ahead of both SLU and Morehead by a partial letter grade. Even with Wichita's rough start, I have to admit that it surprises me to see you consider these three teams so closely bunched. What do you have North Florida at currently? I for one am still expecting stiffer competition from Wichita than from North Florida. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Old guy Posted December 2, 2015 Share Posted December 2, 2015 Hsmith19 by what I have been reading in this blog, a lot depends upon whether or not Van Fleet is playing for Wichita St. next Saturday. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JettFlight5 Posted December 2, 2015 Share Posted December 2, 2015 FVV is quite a difference maker. I would expect the Shockers to be much more dangerous with him. That said, we have Morehead coming up next...and nobody turns down Morehead. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
White Pelican Posted December 2, 2015 Share Posted December 2, 2015 I think everyone is looking forward to Morehead. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Wiz Posted December 2, 2015 Author Share Posted December 2, 2015 Yes, I understand you're projecting a SLU win by 4 over Morehead and (should your expected outcome there occur) a SLU win by an even smaller outcome over Wichita. I meant to ask whether you have Wichita graded even with Morehead, not lower than. Should SLU win by your expected margin, that should not boost SLU or devalue Morehead to any measurable degree. Which means projecting a Wichita loss by an even smaller margin must make those three teams extremely evenly matched. I am very surprised you're predicting all this and yet have Wichita ahead of both SLU and Morehead by a partial letter grade. Even with Wichita's rough start, I have to admit that it surprises me to see you consider these three teams so closely bunched. What do you have North Florida at currently? I for one am still expecting stiffer competition from Wichita than from North Florida. These teams are pretty evenly matched.... Here is the report card on the teams you asked about WSU...........B The Bills.....B- Morehead...B- NFU...........B- All 3 games ... Bills home games...advantage Bills ( NFU + Mhead...and possibly WSU depending on tomorrow's outcome) Yes I know about Van Vleet...non event....he is still questionable...Even if he plays he will not play many minutes and those won't be quality minutes. He hasn't played all season plus he missed 2 weeks of practice before the season. He has played in over a month.....non event. Wichita is a fading team....They have lost 4 of 5. Here is what their losses look like Tulsa ( B ) .favored by 2 over WSU...Tulsa by 10 USC ..( A ) favored by 3 over WSU...USC by 3 Ala......( C+ ) WSU favored by 4 ......Ala by 4 Iowa....( A )..favored by 9 over WSU...Iowa by 23 Only 1 game turned out as expected... the rest were bad to very bad. I am feeling good about Sat night,,.. IF we beat Morehead by 4 + Let's take care of biz Wed night. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Old guy Posted December 2, 2015 Share Posted December 2, 2015 Yup, first things first Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Old guy Posted December 2, 2015 Share Posted December 2, 2015 OK Wiz, back to Teamrankings, the Vegas implied spread for this game is 4 points in favor of SLU. You were right on the spot in terms of the Vegas based odds just prior to the game. Very nicely done! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
juniorbill76 Posted December 2, 2015 Share Posted December 2, 2015 OK Wiz, back to Teamrankings, the Vegas implied spread for this game is 4 points in favor of SLU. You were right on the spot in terms of the Vegas based odds just prior to the game. Very nicely done! Or you might say ... Vegas, very nicely done in matching The Wiz. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Wiz Posted December 3, 2015 Author Share Posted December 3, 2015 Painful game...or should I say painful 1st half....The good news was that we had a decent 2nd half beating them 31-22. Unfortunately, it was not enough to make up for the dismal 1st half. Not only did we only score 15 points for the whole half, but we didn't score a basket for the final 7 minutes. So what went wrong? The problem was mainly around the arc....MSU 47% to SLU 11%...this translates to an extra 2 baskets for MSU and 2 missing for the Bills....that adds up to 12 pts ...I need 6 more pts to win and make the spread. Let's see if I can find them . Let's try Off Reb....Bills out rebounded 10-2. Those 10 rebounds converted into 8 pts for the Eagles and none for the Bills. Too many 2nd chances for the Eagles. And for good measure we had 20 TOs which is unacceptable. One bright spot was the FT shooting....74% So what do we do? As Coach K would say....Next play, next game...move on. Oh well at least some took advantage of the spread differential between myself and Vegas on the MIch St / Lville game and won some money. For those who have been following my Morehead posts, you know this does not bode well for the WSU game but I think it will still be close. I am waiting for about a dozen more games to finish up before I run the numbers. We shall see... stay tuned. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
slufan13 Posted December 3, 2015 Share Posted December 3, 2015 Morehead St stalled for much of the second half. That game could have been as bad as they wanted Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Old guy Posted December 3, 2015 Share Posted December 3, 2015 Agree it was painful to watch. Agree that we probably lost the game on Morehead's 3 point shooting and our inability to control them. They did outplay us, vastly, in offensive rebounds 10-2. But look at the other numbers: they had twice the number of blocks and close to twice the number of steals that we had. They also outfouled us 24-17 (meaning Morehead's players were playing us very close and very hard) and had 5 less T/O than we had. They constantly attempted to bat balls out of our hands, which they succeeded in doing in a number of cases. You put all of this together and they beat us soundly by playing very very physically. We just could not handle the level and amount of constant physical aggression, attempts to bat the balls out of our hands and foul plays in various degrees that they threw at us. They had a flagrant 1 foul against Jolly. They wound up with some of their players getting hurt and lying on the floor at times. They overwhelmed our team physically. We were caught in an avalanche of aggression (a modified Havoc style of play?) and could not extricate ourselves from it. Period. You may interpret this outcome any way you wish. However it just may serve as an object lesson to our team and indicate to them what they have to do to in order to get to play at the next higher level. I think they might have become a little cocky about themselves prior to last night's game and possibly needed an object lesson like the one they got. Now we will see if they managed to learn something from this defeat. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jimbofive Posted December 3, 2015 Share Posted December 3, 2015 I think they might have become a little cocky about themselves prior to last night's game and possibly needed an object lesson like the one they got. Sounds like a team full of participation ribbon winners if they were cocky following a 20-point loss. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Billboy1 Posted December 3, 2015 Share Posted December 3, 2015 Just continues to amaze that these lower level schools can come up with athletic bigs and SLU cannot. Also, even though not im-pressed with AG, you would think he would learn he needs to leave his feet-just being tall is not enough on rebounds Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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