Bills by 2 1/2 over St. J

[The Wiz]

Welcome to the best start in Bills history (100 years)...quite an accomplishment...This also ties the Bills longest winning streak ever.

A lot of good ...some bad ...and some work to do.

First the bad....

For the 3rd time in the last few weeks we have had a setback....numberswise.. In voters mind we are 19th but the stats show we are not there yet...there is still some weakness. Remember, this is all relative as we are still an A team. In the previous weeks, we were rolling and then had close games against RI and Duq. which knocked us down in the stats...We followed both of those games by beating good ( B+ ) teams....Dayton and Richmond. Well, as Yogi Berra said..."it is Deja Vu all over again" We have another close win... this time against GM and our next game will be against a tough ( B+) opponent. And like usual, we will have a ranking target on our back which will be added motivation for St. J. A win against the Hawks will fix our numbers.

Here is what we need to do to win....

The Hawks like to shoot 3's....but unlike some of our previous opponents they make them. The Hawks are 25th in the nation in 3 pt %....shooting 39.6%....we need to hold them 28%...5 shots made...18 att. It won't be easy but we did it against Ind St a similar team

Stop Galloway....He is the heart and soul of their team....he shoots a staggering 45.1% from 3 (30th in nation)...we need to keep him down to 32%....if we do they will go to Wilson who shoots 40% from the arc...so as we learned from GM who had 2 guys to shut down...if you just shut 1 down you can still be in trouble....hold Roberts to less than 14pts.

We always win when....

10-0...when we shoot 44.4% FG

6-0.....when we make at least 28 FG's

16-2...when we allow 5 or fewer 3's

9-1.....when we allow 11 or fewer TO

14-2...when Evans scores at least 12pts

6-0....when Jett has at least 6 FGs

Season high stats....13 steals and total points ...87 was within 3 of the all time Fetz record of 90....also 81 pts most allowed....and yes I know it was overtime... The Bills fell to 8th on defense...PPG.....don't write posts saying it shouldn't count or it isn't fair...I don't making the rules ...that's the way it is....If you don't like it, you need to pray to the stat god to change it.

This was Jett's 7th consecutive game with double digit scoring.

Finally, a tip of the Bills cap to Loe who had a career night....23pts and 7 FGs....not to mention star of the game with clutch shooting....Grats to RL

Now on to Philly to set a new win streak record of 15.

I forgot to include 1 important game winning stat on the GM game........FT% 92% ...23-25...amazing

Edited February 6, 2014 by The Wiz

[RUBillsFan]

Welcome to the best start in Bills history (100 years)...quite an accomplishment...This also ties the Bills longest winning streak ever.

A lot of good ...some bad ...and some work to do.

First the bad....

For the 3rd time in the last few weeks we have had a setback....numberswise.. In voters mind we are 19th but the stats show we are not there yet...there is still some weakness. Remember, this is all relative as we are still an A team. In the previous weeks, we were rolling and then had close games against RI and Duq. which knocked us down in the stats...We followed both of those games by beating good ( B+ ) teams....Dayton and Richmond. Well, as Yogi Berra said..."it is Deja Vu all over again" We have another close win... this time against GM and our next game will be against a tough ( B+) opponent. And like usual, we will have a ranking target on our back which will be added motivation for St. J. A win against the Hawks will fix our numbers.

Here is what we need to do to win....

The Hawks like to shoot 3's....but unlike some of our previous opponents they make them. The Hawks are 25th in the nation in 3 pt %....shooting 39.6%....we need to hold them 28%...5 shots made...18 att. It won't be easy but we did it against Ind St a similar team

Stop Galloway....He is the heart and soul of their team....he shoots a staggering 45.1% from 3 (30th in nation)...we need to keep him down to 32%....if we do they will go to Roberts who shoots 40% from the arc...so as we learned from GM who had 2 guys to shut down...if you just shut 1 down you can still be in trouble....hold Roberts to less than 14pts.

We always win when....

10-0...when we shoot 44.4% FG

6-0.....when we make at least 28 FG's

16-2...when we allow 5 or fewer 3's

9-1.....when we allow 11 or fewer TO

14-2...when Evans scores at least 12pts

6-0....when Jett has at least 6 FGs

Season high stats....13 steals and total points ...87 was within 3 of the all time Fetz record of 90....also 81 pts most allowed....and yes I know it was overtime... The Bills fell to 8th on defense...PPG.....don't write posts saying it shouldn't count or it isn't fair...I don't making the rules ...that's the way it is....If you don't like it, you need to pray to the stat god to change it.

This was Jett's 7th consecutive game with double digit scoring.

Finally, a tip of the Bills cap to Loe who had a career night....23pts and 7 FGs....not to mention star of the game with clutch shooting....Grats to RL

Now on to Philly to set a new win streak record of 15.

I forgot to include 1 important game winning stat on the GM game........FT% 92% ...23-25...amazing

Are the numbers in bold really indicators given that we are 20-2 overall? Those are lower winning % than our overall %.

[NextYearBill]

Are the numbers in bold really indicators given that we are 20-2 overall? Those are lower winning % than our overall %.

20-2.... when we show up

[RUBillsFan]

20-2.... when we show up

Exactly.

[GW]

Welcome to the best start in Bills history (100 years)...quite an accomplishment...This also ties the Bills longest winning streak ever.

A lot of good ...some bad ...and some work to do.

First the bad....

For the 3rd time in the last few weeks we have had a setback....numberswise.. In voters mind we are 19th but the stats show we are not there yet...there is still some weakness. Remember, this is all relative as we are still an A team. In the previous weeks, we were rolling and then had close games against RI and Duq. which knocked us down in the stats...We followed both of those games by beating good ( B+ ) teams....Dayton and Richmond. Well, as Yogi Berra said..."it is Deja Vu all over again" We have another close win... this time against GM and our next game will be against a tough ( B+) opponent. And like usual, we will have a ranking target on our back which will be added motivation for St. J. A win against the Hawks will fix our numbers.

Here is what we need to do to win....

The Hawks like to shoot 3's....but unlike some of our previous opponents they make them. The Hawks are 25th in the nation in 3 pt %....shooting 39.6%....we need to hold them 28%...5 shots made...18 att. It won't be easy but we did it against Ind St a similar team

Stop Galloway....He is the heart and soul of their team....he shoots a staggering 45.1% from 3 (30th in nation)...we need to keep him down to 32%....if we do they will go to Roberts who shoots 40% from the arc...so as we learned from GM who had 2 guys to shut down...if you just shut 1 down you can still be in trouble....hold Roberts to less than 14pts.

We always win when....

10-0...when we shoot 44.4% FG

6-0.....when we make at least 28 FG's

16-2...when we allow 5 or fewer 3's

9-1.....when we allow 11 or fewer TO

14-2...when Evans scores at least 12pts

6-0....when Jett has at least 6 FGs

Season high stats....13 steals and total points ...87 was within 3 of the all time Fetz record of 90....also 81 pts most allowed....and yes I know it was overtime... The Bills fell to 8th on defense...PPG.....don't write posts saying it shouldn't count or it isn't fair...I don't making the rules ...that's the way it is....If you don't like it, you need to pray to the stat god to change it.

This was Jett's 7th consecutive game with double digit scoring.

Finally, a tip of the Bills cap to Loe who had a career night....23pts and 7 FGs....not to mention star of the game with clutch shooting....Grats to RL

Now on to Philly to set a new win streak record of 15.

I forgot to include 1 important game winning stat on the GM game........FT% 92% ...23-25...amazing

Wiz,

I always enjoy and appreciate your work. Unfortunately, I do have to question how you apply overtime results. I believe that an overtime game should be considered to be a tie, ending at regulation. Ideally, two sets of numbers could be produced one with and one without overtime. This way expected results could be produced based on a standard 40 minute game and another set based on what would be expected if the game goes to overtime. You are citing how our defense dropped to 8th based on the high scoring overtime result. Let's consider an extreme overtime result to demonstrate how an unrealistic anomaly can be produced. Suppose that yesterday's game wound up not just going to a single overtime but ended sometime today going to the 200th overtime with a final result of SLU winning by 6.... 2006 points to 2000 points. Would you seriously come on today and state "well folks, really bad news... our #1 ranked defense dropped a little yesterday. Actually, we went from #1 to being the worst team in the country, not just this year but the worst in all time as we are giving up an average of over 150 points a game. My line for the St. Joes game is St. Joes by 100. It's just the way the numbers are- if you don't like it utilize divine intervention...."

You state that you "don't make the rules" but actually, you do. You can choose how to apply or not apply overtime results- it is very much in your control. In my opinion, a stat such as opponent's points per possession is the most meaningful defensive stat as it avoids anomaly's such as the one described above, while also factoring out the pace of the game- it is pure defensive efficiency. SLU was #1 in that category (don't know if they still are or not). Regards.

[Box and Won]

This one's going to be tough.

[The Wiz]

Wiz,

I always enjoy and appreciate your work. Unfortunately, I do have to question how you apply overtime results. I believe that an overtime game should be considered to be a tie, ending at regulation. Ideally, two sets of numbers could be produced one with and one without overtime. This way expected results could be produced based on a standard 40 minute game and another set based on what would be expected if the game goes to overtime. You are citing how our defense dropped to 8th based on the high scoring overtime result. Let's consider an extreme overtime result to demonstrate how an unrealistic anomaly can be produced. Suppose that yesterday's game wound up not just going to a single overtime but ended sometime today going to the 200th overtime with a final result of SLU winning by 6.... 2006 points to 2000 points. Would you seriously come on today and state "well folks, really bad news... our #1 ranked defense dropped a little yesterday. Actually, we went from #1 to being the worst team in the country, not just this year but the worst in all time as we are giving up an average of over 150 points a game. My line for the St. Joes game is St. Joes by 100. It's just the way the numbers are- if you don't like it utilize divine intervention...."

You state that you "don't make the rules" but actually, you do. You can choose how to apply or not apply overtime results- it is very much in your control. In my opinion, a stat such as opponent's points per possession is the most meaningful defensive stat as it avoids anomaly's such as the one described above, while also factoring out the pace of the game- it is pure defensive efficiency. SLU was #1 in that category (don't know if they still are or not). Regards.

Well, we are talking about 2 different things....Things that affect my forecasts and general stat keeping by the powers that be. On the sites that keep track of things such as PPG on defense....they generally figure based on the game ...the whole game. And while it can hurt you in some stats when you play longer it helps in others. Again, I have no control over the record keepers. Separately, in my own system, OT does figure into the calculation. While winning and point spreads are still more important....you lose a little ground for tieing if you are favored to win....If you are favored to win by 1 and you win by 1 in OT the diff is insignificant.....if you are favored by 14 and you win by 6 in OT ...you take a double hit in the numbers....failing to make the spread and being forced into OT. Conversely, GM's numbers were helped yesterday by "hanging in there"

On another note, I want to address the issue of GM being winless in conf....How can a team this "good" ( C+ ) be winless. They are in a tough conference....everybody in the conf is better than them except Ford and Duq.. You can be a B team but if everybody else is an A you are going to have a losing record. Interestingly, had GM stayed in the Colonial conf...they would be in 2nd place battling Delaware for a tourney bid.

Edited February 2, 2014 by Absurd_Bills_fan
Formatting

[The Wiz]

Are the numbers in bold really indicators given that we are 20-2 overall? Those are lower winning % than our overall %.

It is true those are lower %....I could just list the sure winners....but I thought the others were interesting "guideposts" to look at when things are going right.

[billslasttermdropout]

Wiz,

I always enjoy and appreciate your work. Unfortunately, I do have to question how you apply overtime results. I believe that an overtime game should be considered to be a tie, ending at regulation. Ideally, two sets of numbers could be produced one with and one without overtime. This way expected results could be produced based on a standard 40 minute game and another set based on what would be expected if the game goes to overtime. You are citing how our defense dropped to 8th based on the high scoring overtime result. Let's consider an extreme overtime result to demonstrate how an unrealistic anomaly can be produced. Suppose that yesterday's game wound up not just going to a single overtime but ended sometime today going to the 200th overtime with a final result of SLU winning by 6.... 2006 points to 2000 points. Would you seriously come on today and state "well folks, really bad news... our #1 ranked defense dropped a little yesterday. Actually, we went from #1 to being the worst team in the country, not just this year but the worst in all time as we are giving up an average of over 150 points a game. My line for the St. Joes game is St. Joes by 100. It's just the way the numbers are- if you don't like it utilize divine intervention...."

You state that you "don't make the rules" but actually, you do. You can choose how to apply or not apply overtime results- it is very much in your control. In my opinion, a stat such as opponent's points per possession is the most meaningful defensive stat as it avoids anomaly's such as the one described above, while also factoring out the pace of the game- it is pure defensive efficiency. SLU was #1 in that category (don't know if they still are or not). Regards.

He said pray to the stat god, not lecture him.

[68Alum]

I think there is one other relevant point to this discussion. Every week several teams in the top 25 are upset, often by a far weaker team that has a hot shooting day. Today it was Indiana over Michigan. I have had critical moments with the team too, particularly earlier in the season. But despite that fact that these guys are frequently facing better pure athletes, they stick to their discipline of playing tenacious defense and unselfish, find the open man, offense. In my opinion, this team shares the ball better than anyone in college basketball. If this discipline continues and the freshmen take another step forward, I think it makes the Bills far more dangerous that the stats would support.

[Taj79]

@ Wiz --- Yo Wiz. Check your stats. Roberts has not attempted a three all year (".. who shoots 40% from the arc"). I am thinking you mean Chris Wilson, the other guard. However, Ron Roberts does average about 14 ppg. So you mixed up the players some. This game provides an interesting contrast in an of itself .... St. Joe's is a five-man team. You are going to get Galloway, Kanesevic, Roberts, Wilson and Bembry. This is th ekin dof lineup we traditionally have issues with as Roberts,m Kanesevic and Bembry are the type of forwards we turn into stars. However, with no bench of which to speak, foul trouble and fatigue become factors for them. We have to not allow some deadbeat off thei rbench (Miles, Quarles, Ndoa) to all of a sudden find thei rgame against us.

Kanesevic is the "problem." He's their "point." A problem fo rmost at 6'8". Both he and Chaz Williams left Hofstra when Pecora went to Fordham. Wow! I think it best we put Barnett on him and see if he tries to take Jake down low. Jett on Galloway. McCall on Wilson. Evans on Bemby with Loe on Roberts. Bembry is the more mobile of the two and Roberts will stay down low/Loe.

[The Wiz]

@ Wiz --- Yo Wiz. Check your stats. Roberts has not attempted a three all year (".. who shoots 40% from the arc"). I am thinking you mean Chris Wilson, the other guard. However, Ron Roberts does average about 14 ppg. So you mixed up the players some. This game provides an interesting contrast in an of itself .... St. Joe's is a five-man team. You are going to get Galloway, Kanesevic, Roberts, Wilson and Bembry. This is th ekin dof lineup we traditionally have issues with as Roberts,m Kanesevic and Bembry are the type of forwards we turn into stars. However, with no bench of which to speak, foul trouble and fatigue become factors for them. We have to not allow some deadbeat off thei rbench (Miles, Quarles, Ndoa) to all of a sudden find thei rgame against us.

Kanesevic is the "problem." He's their "point." A problem fo rmost at 6'8". Both he and Chaz Williams left Hofstra when Pecora went to Fordham. Wow! I think it best we put Barnett on him and see if he tries to take Jake down low. Jett on Galloway. McCall on Wilson. Evans on Bemby with Loe on Roberts. Bembry is the more mobile of the two and Roberts will stay down low/Loe.

You are correct ....I meant Wilson ....40.9% from the arc......though we still need to hold Roberts to 14pts or less.

[Schasz]

Seems to me we have had pretty good success in the last 2 or 3 years against St. Joe's. We need to have a great defensive game. A win would be 15 straight wins a school record for consecutive wins.

[sjhawk13]

Seems to me we have had pretty good success in the last 2 or 3 years against St. Joe's. We need to have a great defensive game. A win would be 15 straight wins a school record for consecutive wins.

The Hawks haven't beaten the Billikens since 2006, so I'd say SLU's success has lasted a bit longer than 2-3 years.

[Basketbill]

Wiz,

Two questions for you,

1. What defines a possession in the points per possession stat. Specifically is an offensive rebound a new possession?

2. What does your black box say about the Wichita v Indiana state games Wednesday?

[The Wiz]

Wiz,

Two questions for you,

1. What defines a possession in the points per possession stat. Specifically is an offensive rebound a new possession?

2. What does your black box say about the Wichita v Indiana state games Wednesday?

1. The time a team gains possession of the basketball until it scores, loses the ball or fouls. So I would say that an off reb is not a new possession.....the key word is....new

2. Wichita St by 4 over Ind St.....Should be a good game...Ind St is one of only 2 teams in the Valley that has a realistic shot at beating the Shockers.....the other is N Iowa.

[The Wiz]

Welcome to the best start in Bills history (100 years)...quite an accomplishment...This also ties the Bills longest winning streak ever.

A lot of good ...some bad ...and some work to do.

First the bad....

For the 3rd time in the last few weeks we have had a setback....numberswise.. In voters mind we are 19th but the stats show we are not there yet...there is still some weakness. Remember, this is all relative as we are still an A team. In the previous weeks, we were rolling and then had close games against RI and Duq. which knocked us down in the stats...We followed both of those games by beating good ( B+ ) teams....Dayton and Richmond. Well, as Yogi Berra said..."it is Deja Vu all over again" We have another close win... this time against GM and our next game will be against a tough ( B+) opponent. And like usual, we will have a ranking target on our back which will be added motivation for St. J. A win against the Hawks will fix our numbers.

Here is what we need to do to win....

The Hawks like to shoot 3's....but unlike some of our previous opponents they make them. The Hawks are 25th in the nation in 3 pt %....shooting 39.6%....we need to hold them 28%...5 shots made...18 att. It won't be easy but we did it against Ind St a similar team

Stop Galloway....He is the heart and soul of their team....he shoots a staggering 45.1% from 3 (30th in nation)...we need to keep him down to 32%....if we do they will go to Wilson who shoots 40% from the arc...so as we learned from GM who had 2 guys to shut down...if you just shut 1 down you can still be in trouble....hold Roberts to less than 14pts.

We always win when....

10-0...when we shoot 44.4% FG

6-0.....when we make at least 28 FG's

16-2...when we allow 5 or fewer 3's

9-1.....when we allow 11 or fewer TO

14-2...when Evans scores at least 12pts

6-0....when Jett has at least 6 FGs

Season high stats....13 steals and total points ...87 was within 3 of the all time Fetz record of 90....also 81 pts most allowed....and yes I know it was overtime... The Bills fell to 8th on defense...PPG.....don't write posts saying it shouldn't count or it isn't fair...I don't making the rules ...that's the way it is....If you don't like it, you need to pray to the stat god to change it.

This was Jett's 7th consecutive game with double digit scoring.

Finally, a tip of the Bills cap to Loe who had a career night....23pts and 7 FGs....not to mention star of the game with clutch shooting....Grats to RL

Now on to Philly to set a new win streak record of 15.

I forgot to include 1 important game winning stat on the GM game........FT% 92% ...23-25...amazing

Great game for the Bills....this will fix our numbers from the GM game.....

Time to go over the checklist.....this will be easy.....

St. Joe best shooting 3 pt team in the A-10 and 25th in the nation @ 39.6% ...hold them to no more than 28%.....

Actual....6.7% (1-15).....Double check

Hold to 18... 3pt att....Actual...15 att....check

Hold to 5...3pt made...Actual...1 made....double check

Stop Galloway 45.1% from 3.......Actual....zero...double check

Stop Wilson 40% from 3....Actual....zero...double check

Bills shoot 44.4%,,,,,,Actual...46.8%...check

A tremendous effort by the Bills

And finally, lets not forget about our 2nd game in a row of great free throw shooting...88% follows the 92% against GM

Let's keep it going

.

[BACKHANDtheRICAN]

Great game for the Bills....this will fix our numbers from the GM game.....

Time to go over the checklist.....this will be easy.....

St. Joe best shooting 3 pt team in the A-10 and 25th in the nation @ 39.6% ...hold them to no more than 28%.....

Actual....6.7% (1-15).....Double check

Hold to 18... 3pt att....Actual...15 att....check

Hold to 5...3pt made...Actual...1 made....double check

Stop Galloway 45.1% from 3.......Actual....zero...double check

Stop Wilson 40% from 3....Actual....zero...double check

Bills shoot 44.4%,,,,,,Actual...46.8%...check

A tremendous effort by the Bills

And finally, lets not forget about our 2nd game in a row of great free throw shooting...88% follows the 92% against GM

Let's keep it going

.

WAY OFF on the spread again.

[Dwayne's_World]

WAY OFF on the spread again.

This time in a good way