Final Four talk, with a '98 Utah Utes vs. 2012 SLU comparison

[Billsrmajic]

Final 4 anyone?

This is an interesting idea, and it's certainly fun to think about. I remember when we were good two years ago I thought we had a legit shot of making a deep run in the tournament with a senior class of Conklin, Cassity, Mitchell and Reed. I assumed at that time we'd have four senior starters, most of whom would have started for four years. Times certainly change:)

When thinking about a deep SLU run in the tournament, I think it's fair to look at Rick's Ball State and Utah teams for a comparison. Rick's teams have made the tournament 11 times. Ten times they won their first round game. Rick is a master of preparation, and if he is given 4-5 days to prepare his team for an opponent, they will be more than ready. After winning 10 first round games, Rick's teams lost in the next round six times. Of the four teams that made the Sweet Sixteen, two of them won. One of those teams lost in the Elite Eight, and the other in the Championship game. Taken all together, Rick has a record of 13-3 in the Tournament when he has 4-5 days to prepare (in the 1st, 3rd, and 5th rounds), and a record of 5-8 when he has one day to prepare (in the 2nd, 4th, and 6th rounds). Again, this tells me that given enough time, he will have his team more than prepared. It also tells me that Rick's Utah and Ball State teams were not the kind of teams that won on athleticism alone. They won on game plans, defense, taking away an opponent's best players, taking good shots, and not turning the ball over. In other words, exactly like SLU this year.

Since Wiz brought up the Final Four, I thought it would be interesting to compare Rick's 1998 Final Four team with this year's team. That team finished the Conference Tournament 25-3, and earned a 3 seed in the NCAA tournament. They finished the regular season ranked 7th, with an RPI of 15 and a SOS of 115.

Starters for that team were point guard Andre Miller (junior), shooting guard Drew Hansen (senior), small forward Hanno Mottola (sophomore), power forward Alex Jensen (sophomore), and center Michael Doleac (senior). Four guys off the bench averaged 10+ minutes a game, but honestly the bench was pretty thin. For example, in the championship game against Kentucky only 7 guys played 10 minutes (and after the game Rick said he thought fatigue ultimately cost them the game).

Comparing those guys to our guys:

Miller vs. Mitchell - big advantage to Miller. He's much bigger and stronger than Kwamain. Miller played in the NBA.

Hansen vs. McCall - even. Hansen wasn't much of an offensive threat, but he was a lock down defender who could hit a three.

Mottola vs. Evans - even. Mottola was a very good athlete who could score, but he was soft. Evans is a much better rebounder and tougher. Mottola played in the NBA.

Jensen vs. Conklin - advantage Jensen. Very good match up of two similar players. Jensen was a jack of all trades, but was especially a lock down defender. He ended up being the conference player of the year his senior year. Jensen played pro ball overseas.

Doleac vs. Loe - big advantage to Doleac. His strength would have been too much for Rob. He would have had a difficult time guarding Rob on the wing, so he probably would guard Conklin with Jensen on Loe. Doleac played in the NBA.

Bench - advantage SLU - Utah had freshman Britton Johnsen coming off the bench. Johnsen had a cup of coffee in the NBA, and is still playing overseas. He only played 10 minutes a game or so on the '98 team. Our bench is really good, with Jett and Ellis often being difference makers who play crunch time minutes.

Overall, the Utah team was definitely better than this year's SLU team. I bring this up not to slam our team, but just to bring some perspective to our expectations. Talking Final Four is really fun and exciting, but teams that make the Final Four almost always have guys who end up in the NBA. According to Rick, Manning is our only hope for that on our current roster. So I think a Final Four run this year, while not impossible, is extremely unlikely. I would be really happy to make the tournament and win a game. I think that really sets us up well for next year.

So that leads me to thoughts of a deep run next year. We will have our entire team back except Brian and Kyle. I don't think replacing Kyle will be that difficult, but replacing Brian will be a challenge. But remember, the '98 Utah team had to replace Keith Van Horn, the #2 pick in the draft. If we assume Cody slips into Brian's spot next year, and everyone shows an average amount of improvement, I think we'll be better next year than we are this year. Good enough to be ranked the majority of the year, and finish first or second in the conferene. However, if Manning develops and can start at the five, dropping Loe to the four where he can be more effective, then we can be really good. That would mean Rick could choose from a bench of Ellis, Jett, Remekun, Glaze, Barnett, Tselentakis, and the two freshmen. That's a really deep team, ready to make a deep run in the tournament.

[Taj79]

Interesting. Count me in jumping from 7 and 9 to Final Four. Why not?

[Cowboy]

-is one difference the utah final 4 team had ncaa experience which we lack?

[Billsrmajic]

-is one difference the utah final 4 team had ncaa experience which we lack?

Yep, the '97 team (with Van Horn as a senior) made the Elite 8, the '96 team made the Sweet 16, and the '95 team made the second round. More reasons why next year is a much more likely chance for a run in the tournament.

[slu72]

Wow, your moniker, Billsrmajic, is spot on. We would need some real majic to make the final 4. Don't want to be a nabob of negativity, West Pine Jim will understand that, but despite some surprise teams making the final 4, it largely remains the domain of the rich elitist BCS'ers. Not saying it's out of the question, afterall, my Giants came from 7-7 to win the SB so I do believe in miracles, but this is a different breed of cat. Our local sports show here in Charleston did a call in poll a couple of weeks ago and asked the question; Would you rather have your pro football team win the SB than your favorite college team win a national championship in FB or BB. Now, being in SC where FB rules the day, most answered they'd rather have Clemson or USC win the FB championship. Since, my favorite FB team had already won the SB 3 times, I voted to see my alma mater win the BB national championship. Why? It is probably a gazillion times harder for SLU to ever win it than your favorite pro team to win a SB championship. That wouldn't hold true for a fan of KY, Duke, UNC, etc, because they expect to win it every year, kind of like Bama FB, but for a fan of little ol' SLU to have the Bills win a national championship in BB? Hands down, the thrill of a lifetime. Even making the final four would be a greater thrill than my favorite FB team winning the SB.

[moytoy12]

I get this is a comparison of RM teams, but if we're talking final 4, then I think last year's Butler team is probably a better comparison to our current team.

Butler got to the finals as a 5 seed too.

[kshoe]

In my opinion, there is too much randomness in the NCAA tourney to ever really predict/project/expect/whatever a deep tourney run for all but the top teams. Butler's story last year was fabulous but they won their first game on a last second tip-in.

Could the Bills make a run, sure, just about any team seeded 1-12 can do it, but my goal is simply to put ourselves in the best position possible entering the tourney (i.e a good seed) and let the ball bounce how it bounces.

[brianstl]

-is one difference the utah final 4 team had ncaa experience which we lack?

Well that and four future NBA players.

[kwyjibo]

In my opinion, there is too much randomness in the NCAA tourney to ever really predict/project/expect/whatever a deep tourney run for all but the top teams.

Whenever I think of '83 and NC State I think of this (their near loss in the first round to Pepperdine--which I watched at SLU):

[Cowboy]

Well that and four future NBA players.

-probably a better point

[David King]

but for a fan of little ol' SLU to have the Bills win a national championship in BB? Hands down, the thrill of a lifetime. Even making the final four would be a greater thrill than my favorite FB team winning the SB.

Absolutely!!

[Quality Is Job 1]

When thinking about a deep SLU run in the tournament, I think it's fair to look at Rick's Ball State and Utah teams for a comparison. Rick's teams have made the tournament 11 times. Ten times they won their first round game. Rick is a master of preparation, and if he is given 4-5 days to prepare his team for an opponent, they will be more than ready. After winning 10 first round games, Rick's teams lost in the next round six times. Of the four teams that made the Sweet Sixteen, two of them won. One of those teams lost in the Elite Eight, and the other in the Championship game. Taken all together, Rick has a record of 13-3 in the Tournament when he has 4-5 days to prepare (in the 1st, 3rd, and 5th rounds), and a record of 5-8 when he has one day to prepare (in the 2nd, 4th, and 6th rounds). Again, this tells me that given enough time, he will have his team more than prepared. It also tells me that Rick's Utah and Ball State teams were not the kind of teams that won on athleticism alone. They won on game plans, defense, taking away an opponent's best players, taking good shots, and not turning the ball over. In other words, exactly like SLU this year.

Since Wiz brought up the Final Four, I thought it would be interesting to compare Rick's 1998 Final Four team with this year's team. That team finished the Conference Tournament 25-3, and earned a 3 seed in the NCAA tournament. They finished the regular season ranked 7th, with an RPI of 15 and a SOS of 115.

Starters for that team were point guard Andre Miller (junior), shooting guard Drew Hansen (senior), small forward Hanno Mottola (sophomore), power forward Alex Jensen (sophomore), and center Michael Doleac (senior). Four guys off the bench averaged 10+ minutes a game, but honestly the bench was pretty thin. For example, in the championship game against Kentucky only 7 guys played 10 minutes (and after the game Rick said he thought fatigue ultimately cost them the game).

Comparing those guys to our guys:

Miller vs. Mitchell - big advantage to Miller. He's much bigger and stronger than Kwamain. Miller played in the NBA.

Hansen vs. McCall - even. Hansen wasn't much of an offensive threat, but he was a lock down defender who could hit a three.

Mottola vs. Evans - even. Mottola was a very good athlete who could score, but he was soft. Evans is a much better rebounder and tougher. Mottola played in the NBA.

Jensen vs. Conklin - advantage Jensen. Very good match up of two similar players. Jensen was a jack of all trades, but was especially a lock down defender. He ended up being the conference player of the year his senior year. Jensen played pro ball overseas.

Doleac vs. Loe - big advantage to Doleac. His strength would have been too much for Rob. He would have had a difficult time guarding Rob on the wing, so he probably would guard Conklin with Jensen on Loe. Doleac played in the NBA.

Bench - advantage SLU - Utah had freshman Britton Johnsen coming off the bench. Johnsen had a cup of coffee in the NBA, and is still playing overseas. He only played 10 minutes a game or so on the '98 team. Our bench is really good, with Jett and Ellis often being difference makers who play crunch time minutes.

Overall, the Utah team was definitely better than this year's SLU team. I bring this up not to slam our team, but just to bring some perspective to our expectations. Talking Final Four is really fun and exciting, but teams that make the Final Four almost always have guys who end up in the NBA. According to Rick, Manning is our only hope for that on our current roster. So I think a Final Four run this year, while not impossible, is extremely unlikely. I would be really happy to make the tournament and win a game. I think that really sets us up well for next year.

The thing is, a head-to-head comparison of '12 SLU to '98 Utah is irrelevant. What would be relevant is comparing how the '98 Utah team matched up against its '97-98 opponents and how SLU matches up with its opponents this year. And the thing about the NCAA Tournament is not necessarily being the best team in the country but playing the best against the teams you match up with. This year's Billikens squad may not have the individual talent level of the '98 Utah squad, but as a team they may be able to perform as well, depending on the match-ups they get.

What excites me is what happens when SLU gets players of the caliber Coach Majerus had on that '98 Utah team. But that doesn't mean SLU can't play into the second weekend this year.

[Quality Is Job 1]

-is one difference the utah final 4 team had ncaa experience which we lack?

Yes, I would consider that, but I also have followed teams which nearly reached the Final Four with nary a player with NCAA Tournament experience (with that team) -- Missouri in 2009, for example.

[Billsrmajic]

The thing is, a head-to-head comparison of '12 SLU to '98 Utah is irrelevant. What would be relevant is comparing how the '98 Utah team matched up against its '97-98 opponents and how SLU matches up with its opponents this year. And the thing about the NCAA Tournament is not necessarily being the best team in the country but playing the best against the teams you match up with. This year's Billikens squad may not have the individual talent level of the '98 Utah squad, but as a team they may be able to perform as well, depending on the match-ups they get.

What excites me is what happens when SLU gets players of the caliber Coach Majerus had on that '98 Utah team. But that doesn't mean SLU can't play into the second weekend this year.

Of course the comparison is irrelevant. I'm comparing the SLU team to a team from 14 years ago! However, since the Final Four talk was started by Wiz (who may have been exaggerating, but he doesn't usually do that) I was trying to I was trying to point out some similarities (there are many) and differences between the Utah teams and SLU teams. Plus I was trying to make the point that any Final Four talk should be tempered a bit. As Brian pointed out, there is a big difference between the Bills and a team with four players who eventually made the NBA. However, as kshoe said, anything can happen in the tourney. But I would be happy with an NCAA bid, and extremely happy with a first round win (which I will be predicting based on Rick's track record). Anything more this year is gravy.