This should be the year

[bauman]

First let me make it clear that I am very happy with where the program is right now. Three years in a row with multiple very good recruits. Also, I believe that we overachieved last year with a very young team, BECAUSE of the coaching. I can't even imagine where this program would be if not for RM. Having said all that:

I believe the time is NOW to make a serious improvement. We have 4 Jrs. who play alot and are very good. I know some are saying next year should be the year and I agree that we should be even better next year if all the players return. However, our 4 Jrs. have as much or more experience than most Srs. on other teams. Remember they all have played significant minutes in their 1st two years with RM. I would challenge anyone to find 4 Srs.on the same team who have played as many minutes in 3 years as our 4 Jrs. have played in 2 years. Add in the fact that 2 of our 3 Sophs. also played alot last year and the third one-CR-got a fair amt of PT then we have 7 non-FR who have a decent amt of D-1 experience. If just 2 of our 4 new players are ready to make some contribution this year, then there is no reason for us not to finish in the top 2-3 positions in the A-10. (Remember that RM said MM is better than KM at the same points in their careers and RL is the best NZ recruit)) Based on what RM did at Ball State his 2nd year I think shooting for the moon this year is a reasonable expectation. I know he was dealt a pile of c%@p his first year, but this is year 4 and I believe our expectations should be very, very high.

We need to lower our level of patience. Finishing 4-? in the A-10 and not winning a game or 2 in the NCAA should NOT be considered acceptable. If you don't aim high you'll never get there.

[SShoe]

First let me make it clear that I am very happy with where the program is right now. Three years in a row with multiple very good recruits. Also, I believe that we overachieved last year with a very young team, BECAUSE of the coaching. I can't even imagine where this program would be if not for RM. Having said all that:

I believe the time is NOW to make a serious improvement. We have 4 Jrs. who play alot and are very good. I know some are saying next year should be the year and I agree that we should be even better next year if all the players return. However, our 4 Jrs. have as much or more experience than most Srs. on other teams. Remember they all have played significant minutes in their 1st two years with RM. I would challenge anyone to find 4 Srs.on the same team who have played as many minutes in 3 years as our 4 Jrs. have played in 2 years. Add in the fact that 2 of our 3 Sophs. also played alot last year and the third one-CR-got a fair amt of PT then we have 7 non-FR who have a decent amt of D-1 experience. If just 2 of our 4 new players are ready to make some contribution this year, then there is no reason for us not to finish in the top 2-3 positions in the A-10. (Remember that RM said MM is better than KM at the same points in their careers and RL is the best NZ recruit)) Based on what RM did at Ball State his 2nd year I think shooting for the moon this year is a reasonable expectation. I know he was dealt a pile of c%@p his first year, but this is year 4 and I believe our expectations should be very, very high.

We need to lower our level of patience. Finishing 4-? in the A-10 and not winning a game or 2 in the NCAA should NOT be considered acceptable. If you don't aim high you'll never get there.

Bauman, I generally agree with this. But let me rephrase your original point to "This Should Be the Year We Make the Big Leap Forward," meaning we should win 24 or 25 regular season games and make the tourney. In my mind, next year is still THE YEAR.

Overall, I think there is a lot of guarded optimism on this board. I saw some predictions with us winning only 19 or 20 games (including A-10 tourney games), with losses to teams like Portland, MSU, Georgia, etc. We should not lose games like that with the returning and incoming talent. If we do, then I can start reconsidering the Majerus era.

[DoctorB]

I am a lot less sanguine, sorry. I think we will know a lot by the holidays, though... and I am factoring in fairly low expectations for the freshmen. Gotta win some of those road games that we have typically frozen our scoring for around 15 points and thus have lost badly in recent years ...

in an earlier thread I posted this:

we can easily lose a lot of those OOC games that nobody is touting. Plus some of those teams may be much better RPI - wise as the season progresses. I'm talking about games like Portland, IUPUI, Jacksonville, Georgia, Mo State, Northeastern, Southern Miss, Ole Miss (if both teams win); BGSU; then facing a very tough opening of the A10 season with Dayton, at Temple, at Duquesne.

Guys, that is actually a pretty tough stretch -- that's at least 13 tough games (counting Duke on the road!) in the first 2 months, with a lot of dark horses in there, sorry to say it, we can lose a lot of those games; at the very least I bet many of those are either solid 10- point losses on the road, or else come down to the final 2 minutes, whoever makes a shot wins kind of games.

I can see us plausibly losing ten or more games again; and I can see us not making the tourney because the recent record has us getting somewhat screwed over at selection time. Not sure why. But I am amazed some folks on here are looking at the same schedule as I am and predicting 4 or 5 total losses.

again, sure hope I'm wrong. I hope we can get to Philly for Temple with only 3 or 4 losses. Then we could lose another 3 or 4 in the A10 and still have less than 9 or 10 total losses. (12-4 would be pretty nice in the conference! plus a couple more in the torunament) But 3 losses going into Temple would really surprise me right now -- a very very pleasant surprise.

[SShoe]

and I am factoring in fairly low expectations for the freshmen.

But why are you thinking this way? Have Rick's first two recruiting classes not met your expectations? Do you think that this class is any worse than the previous two? I'm just trying to understand why folks are expecting limited production from a freshman class that some have said is Rick's best yet when the previous two classes both made significant impacts in their first year.

[Clock_Tower]

I am a lot less sanguine, sorry. I think we will know a lot by the holidays, though... and I am factoring in fairly low expectations for the freshmen. Gotta win some of those road games that we have typically frozen our scoring for around 15 points and thus have lost badly in recent years ...

in an earlier thread I posted this:

we can easily lose a lot of those OOC games that nobody is touting. Plus some of those teams may be much better RPI - wise as the season progresses. I'm talking about games like Portland, IUPUI, Jacksonville, Georgia, Mo State, Northeastern, Southern Miss, Ole Miss (if both teams win); BGSU; then facing a very tough opening of the A10 season with Dayton, at Temple, at Duquesne.

Guys, that is actually a pretty tough stretch -- that's at least 13 tough games (counting Duke on the road!) in the first 2 months, with a lot of dark horses in there, sorry to say it, we can lose a lot of those games; at the very least I bet many of those are either solid 10- point losses on the road, or else come down to the final 2 minutes, whoever makes a shot wins kind of games.

I can see us plausibly losing ten or more games again; and I can see us not making the tourney because the recent record has us getting somewhat screwed over at selection time. Not sure why. But I am amazed some folks on here are looking at the same schedule as I am and predicting 4 or 5 total losses.

again, sure hope I'm wrong. I hope we can get to Philly for Temple with only 3 or 4 losses. Then we could lose another 3 or 4 in the A10 and still have less than 9 or 10 total losses. (12-4 would be pretty nice in the conference! plus a couple more in the torunament) But 3 losses going into Temple would really surprise me right now -- a very very pleasant surprise.

Doc.

Yes, those are tough games but if we are a good team, good teams win those games. 10 losses? If have 10 losses, that means simply we are not a good team, that our players/recruits are vastly over-rated and/or that our coach cannot coach. I don't believe that to be the case. Our team will win 25 games and make the Tourney. Anything short of that will be a disappointment to me.

[bsheldon]

But why are you thinking this way? Have Rick's first two recruiting classes not met your expectations? Do you think that this class is any worse than the previous two? I'm just trying to understand why folks are expecting limited production from a freshman class that some have said is Rick's best yet when the previous two classes both made significant impacts in their first year.

Excellent post. I am expecting big things from the freshman. However, the difference with this year's class and the last couple is that this year's class won't have to carry a huge load--we actually have returning players to do that. This year's freshan class is kind of just gravy. Any production from thatm at all is icing on the cake. Now if they truly step up and not just contribute but their play demands playing time--then we will be a very good team and we should go far this season.

I am excited about this season and can't wait for it to get started.

Go Bills.

[SShoe]

This year's freshan class is kind of just gravy.

Bingo, and I expect it to be Thanksgiving all season long.

[Billikan]

Doc.

Yes, those are tough games but if we are a good team, good teams win those games. 10 losses? If have 10 losses, that means simply we are not a good team, that our players/recruits are vastly over-rated and/or that our coach cannot coach. I don't believe that to be the case. Our team will win 25 games and make the Tourney. Anything short of that will be a disappointment to me.

I am really surprised that some folks have such an inflated view of our team. I think Doc is right on with his analysis. In my view, last year's team overachieved significantly compared to what I thought they would do at the start of the year and that could happen again this year. BUT, until we see them on the floor, see how they have developed, see how they work together, see how the new kids fit in, etc..... we cannot assume that we will be world beaters. Games like MSU and Portland on the road and Georgia at home are really tough early games that should tell us a lot about this team. We have other tough early games and of course, Duke at their place. There are a number of very tough teams in the conference and we play several on the road. I am very hopeful for this team and am pretty confident that we should be really good next year but to say that we need to win at least 25 games and make the big dance or the season will be a bust is not reasonable in my view.

[bsheldon]

Doc,

I too have looked at the schedule and analyzed most of the match ups with most of the teams. There are definitely some tough games there and many games that there definitely is a very realistic chance that we lose. However, if we truly want to make the next step and be a regular tournament team--those are the games we must win. Beating up on a bunch of 200+ rpi teams at home really doesn't help us get to the next level. This year's schedule is full of teams that finished near the top of their conferences last year. IUPUI, Portland, Jacksonville, Northeastern, Southern Miss, and E TN all were within a game or two of winning their conferences last year--and many have most of their players returning. This doesn't take into consideration the monster games @ Duke and a totally improved GA coming to our house. Sure, can we lose 7 or even 8 games before conference? Yes, but that is the point--we are now playing a better caliber of opposition. However, these are the type of games we have to win if we are going to get invited to the dance.

25 wins should be the realistic, yet high achieving regular season goal of this team heading into the season.

I picked 22-8 in the "first official prediction" thread a week or so ago.

[bsheldon]

Bingo, and I expect it to be Thanksgiving all season long.

Love it.

[DoctorB]

partly I'm keeping lower expectations for all my sports teams. I'm getting sick and tired of having my hopes trounced! so I'll believe it when I see it --it's just easier for me, and that way I do not get so heart broken--it's a defense mechanism.

e.g. for several years I keep thinkin'; the Rams are improving but now I just would rather not get too worked up about it. Cards? don't get me started.

I'm not comparing the Bills to the Rams, just sayin'.... but you know what? it is kind of scary to think back and realize we never even made one NCAA tournament with Kevin Lisch!

and part of it is from another post where, having seen the freshmen, I just wonder how much impact they will be having. I'm not like peeing my pants or anything, and again, I HOPE I'M JUST BEING A CURMUDGEON on all this ...

believe me I hope come Jan. 7 or so I'm NOT searching the archives for this post, saying I told you so. I really hope that does NOt happen; and I really AM looking forward to this team and this year. pass the kool-aid.

ps -- another bone from scrimmages; BC is healthy and pain-free after being in a lot of pain much of last year. I think this will be a much improved and more springy and tough, bulked up BC; he might surprise some folks. He may even turn out to be our toughest inside defender!

[slufanskip]

RM has stated that MM is a better player right now than KM was as a freshman. If you had the choice right now, would you take CS where he is today or would you take KM as a freshman?

[bearerofbadnews]

"This should be the year." I'd temper my optimism given the news you're all about to receive.

[Westy03]

"This should be the year." I'd temper my optimism given the news you're all about to receive.

You mind sharing that with us?

[milwaukeebill]

"This should be the year." I'd temper my optimism given the news you're all about to receive.

ok. and that is....???

In regards to where i expect our team. If we are losing by 10 on the road ill be very disappointed. If you remember our RPI once Cody Ellis was around 35-40. Our out of conference rpi was much lower. I think i expect about the same RPI for this team, probably more around 30. I dont know how that will translate into wins and losses but i think 25 wins would be a good goal for this team.

[For-DaLove]

"This should be the year." I'd temper my optimism given the news you're all about to receive.

Yeah...I'd like to hear this.

[slufanskip]

It's that RM has been taking a new medicine that causes him to have uncontrollable gas 24 hours a day.

[slufanskip]

aren't you guys any smarter than that?

[billiken_roy]

the guy has one post. the above piece of bull. ignore him.

[TheDude]

the guy has one post. the above piece of bull. ignore him.

Given the Andy Strickland Report, this guy might not be completely full of it. I hope they are all wrong.

[slu72]

Given the Andy Strickland Report, this guy might not be completely full of it. I hope they are all wrong.

Looks like bearerofbadnews is Andy Strickland. I can see Doc and Billikan's point on our optimism, but think we have enough talent to win those games he sees as realistic L's. Somehow RM gets the most from what he's got and I don't see that changing.

[bsheldon]

Sure, IF and it is a HUGE IF, the andy Dickland story is remotely true, and from the VERY limited info I have gathered with my expert thread reading skills, and the worst case scenario happens--we lose WR, that obviously will be a big hit for this basketball team. 25 wins will be real, real tough without him. Last year he was a force down low in many games--we are expecting at least the same this year. CR came a long way, and if BC stays healthy--it can still be done--especially if RL is half as good as advertised.

Again though, Dickland has been blatantly wrong before, and from what I read, this report seems to be a bit shaky in its origins.