What has changed?

[AlumniFan]

If, for one moment at least, we can put aside the "fire Brad" and "the administration sucks" and the "players suck" stuff, how do we account for the change in outcomes over the past two games?

Against the Bonnies, we out shoot them (50% to 46%) and against the Dukes, they out shoot us, but we still shoot 46%. We out rebound the Dukes, and have only 3 more turnovers. Against the Dukes we are 100% from the line. Without going through all of the stats, collectively, the coaches and the players did something right, in general, in these games, so it wasn't as if we just plain got out played OR out coached. However, we lost where before, against better talent, we were plainly winning.

So, what changed? If you invest in a stock that goes up for five months and then starts to go the other way, you look for the catalyst that caused the change. Then, you make a decision - is it an outlier, a fluke, or has something fundamentally changed. That is where this basketball team is: Were these two games outliers or has something fundamentally changed? Let's try to put away the emotion and just dispassionately and critically think about what has changed.

"A strong man stands up for himself; a stronger man stands up for others." - Ben

[kshoe]

Consider that nearly every one of our wins was settled in the final minutes of the game, the tip in vs. MSU, the double digit halftime deficits that we rallied from, the missed 1 and 1 from Loyola, etc. We were won of the luckiest teams in D1. Pomeroy's site confirmed that supicision as we are ranked one of the 5 most "lucky" teams in the country.

The last two games we've been unlucky. Why, I'm not sure

The fact is, however, we were never as good as the 10-3 record would suggest because any rational person would say that you can't expect to win every close game in the final minute, which is precisely what we did during the non-conference.

[SLUDrew]

So I would say what has changed is this team's intensity and focus. This goes for both ends of the floor as we also allowed the Dukes to get to the basket on drives that began on the perimeter.

Voyoukas plays with the same intensity that I would if I were playing with a 5 year old girl. He is afraid to go hard to the basket, allows himself to get blocked out by guys on whom he has 80 pounds, and can become a non-factor on D. We all know he doesn't have Tyler Hansbrough's ability, but if he only had Hansbrough's intensity I think he would be making quite a name for himself this year. As it is, with the recent emergence of Meyer, I would say he has become the fourth best player on our team.

[davidnark]

I heard Brad interviewed after the Ole Miss win. He commented that the scouting reports in conference play get much more detailed and sophisticated because the coaches, programs, players, etc. are more familiar with each other and have more directly at stake. IMO, scouting and resulting coaching adjustments have a lot to do with the results of the last two games.

[SLUMS81]

What has changed?

No more than I player per game can shoot anywhere near a respectable percentage from 3-point range.

IV no longer has the courage to actually face the basket on offense.

Opposing coaches and players have lost all respect for us.

We have stopped moving on offense - especially against a zone.

Our defense puts only intermittent pressure on opposing offenses.

We have abandoned our "running' style (if we ever truly had one).

[Schasz]

You make a good point Nark, and consider that last year no one in conference had played the Bills recently with the exception of Dayton and by God they beat us both times. Gee if these first two games are any indication of things to come then we have even more reasons to be worried moving forward...I know that Xavier will be ready for us.

[Billikenbooster]

Believe you have hit on it here, SD. There is a change in a number of little things have have cumulated into sub par performance for a team that before the season gave so much promise.

1. Kevin's hand injury. He is still playing with the middle and ring fingers taped together. That has to make his shooting efficiency off a little.

2. IV is definitely not playing with the same intensity, offensively and defensively. In the Ole Miss game, his shot from in close clunked off the front of the rim with his first five shots.

3. Turnovers, especially the costly ones that led directly to opponents point are up significantly. Tommie's two throw in TO's last nite come to mind, along with the sidearm pass from Ian directly into the hands of the opposition.

4. Inability to recognize what the opposition is doing defensively and adjusting to it on the fly. Teams which switch defenses on us within the game simply befuddle us.

5. Short bench makes us less effective at the end of the game. We are in the fifth year of UB, these are all his players now. Danny Brown had his first turnover 5 seconds after he came in, plus any player with a quick first step will get around him any time they want. I can see that, any opposing coach should be able to see that.

6. Inability of UB to get into the refs heads, in a good way. IV was absolutely mugged whenever he got the ball in the paint, don't remember any fouls called there.

7. Fundamentals--Baseline defense. Have never seen before so many open looks by the opposition along our baseline. Force the other team to move toward the FT line when they are at our baseline. That way your teammate can help out when the player moves toward the basket.

When are we going to teach our guys to avoid offensive fouls when they are driving to the basket? Have never seen so many consistently dumbhead plays when driving to the basket.

That is all.

I had to leave the Scott with 2 minutes to go in the game. It was just too painful to watch the poor performance of what I truly thought was an NCAA caliber team. The last too games from what I heard and saw may not make the A10 tourney in March.

mhg

[Schasz]

I would fear what you say in your last sentence as we have work to do just to get to the Tourney...like winning our first conference game for starters!!!

[cheeseman]

I agree that Ian has simply played terribly the last four or five games. It is like he has decided that he won't be in the NBA so what is the point I will have no trouble playing in Europe. He is not seeing any defensive sets he did not see last year and he fought through them - now he is simply dropping passes, throwing balls away, loosing balls, missing close shots, and rebounding - that is a word he seems to have forgot.

KL - his hand may still be bandaged but that has nothing to do with his defense. His defense last night was very weak given what we have come to expect of him. It is like his head is out of the game.

DP - his defense weak also last night - not sure why he has all of a sudden forgot how to be in someone's belly button but he has.

Defense as a whole - did not see the Bonnies game obviously but from the radio account overall team defense seemed to be a problem there also as well as last night. Open 3s and players cutting behind ours for easy baskets.

Scoring - scoring has fallen of the table the last few games - not sure why but nobody is moving without the ball - shades of last year and the year before. Very few screens set and if we ran a set play last night I sure did not see it. Even after a time out they screwed it up. You can not go 8 minutes without scoring and expect to win.

Ball handling - sorry if that east and west passing before you get to the half court line is Brad's idea of how to break the press - he needs to go right now. They throw the ball back and forth and then try to squeeze it to somebody in the middle at the line - just dumb. You break the pass by moving the ball North and South either by passing or dribbling. They better get ready because the word is out - press the Bills and they will cave.

Out hustled - that has happened the last two games - no excuse. All I know is when the coach says I am happy with my team's efforts when clearly they were out hustled - well now you know the problem.

Luke - he has gotten better but once the other team takes away his head of the key moves and shot then his shooting is no better than before from any place else on the floor.

Tommie - the only guy hustling - I know he made some mistakes last night but we did not loose the game because of him.

[courtside]

This is more of the kind of thread I prefer...analyzing, breaking it down and how to fix.

Ok...last night...pts off turnovers mentioned, a good important point,...because SLU does not get enough pts off of turnovers or obviously in transition. To do that every game...margin of error for victory is slim. More athletic teams, who score in transistion with better ball handlers don't ahve to be as good in half court every single night.

FT's...Duquesne with twice as many attempts as SLU...IV with ZERO, repeat ZERO FT attempts. No comment necessary there. and KL??? If you are hurting, which some say not anymore, just a confidence thing coming back from it and some say hurting...either way...TWO FT attempts...gotta find another way to get points if you aren't knkcing down 3's...

Turnovers...17, too many. And just like Ole Miss, just like Houston etc...SLU struggles with pressure. SLU does not have enough ball handlers. Everyone said oh with KL, TL, no worries...you cannot just stick anybody back thre like in football QB, need a leader, a ball handler, and someone who creates for himself and others....or these things will continue against more athletic and better teams....and scarily, some of these teams are not good.

Shooting...3 pt shooting was 23%....Anemic.

For season...IV in my opinion has struggled most of season, and has here and there put up nice games...based on expectations, not good enough. Doesn't bring it every night and every possession...when he does, he is fine. And he gets little substitution help.

LM is an undersized role player, which is fine but not as 2nd or 3rd option.

DP, just isn't very good at much of anything. I know people like him, but in evaluation, in his 3rd season.

When one of the big three struggles, SLU is in for tight games, when two struggle, they are going to lose, period.

I would argue that Ole Miss got too tentative in 2nd half vs SLU...Credit SLU for their come back, but it sure helped...and as we know not a top SEC team yet under first year coach. Houston, again, inexperienced, building for future...and not an elite team...was impatient and frankly made horrible decisions down stretch on road. A middle tier or better SEC team wins, and so does a team a little better than struggling Houston.

IMO, a point guard, and an athletic wing or inside player to help IV and SLU would be winning by bigger margins. They lack both, and obviously have a thin thin bench.

They are close with 3 good players, and an undersized LM...but are offensively challenged in half court sets, and are not getting enough easy transistion baskets...Gotta have those in games to keep you in them or create separation.

SLU has no point guard this year, next year so far, and most teams have two. SLU needs better athletes too.

They can easily still do well in conference and make a run...thin bench, lack of adjustments, lack of coach's willingness to make changes, and lack of his ability to best utilize his players or exploit the other team's weaknesses at times...make it all challenging...and margin for error slim.

This is the year, do not kid yourselves, SLU will not be better next season than this season, unless a mircale showed up in Spring signing. And if he cannot get two high quality players in 08 class, KL, TL time will be up, and that would be just an ugly sight wouldn't it?

[Basketbill]

nm