waterboy Posted February 28, 2006 Share Posted February 28, 2006 I was over at KenPom and found that Missouri St. is now #20 in the RPI. What I found interesting is that their OOC RPI is #6 with a schedule strength of 45. Here are their OOC results: Northern Illinois 133 RPI (home) W Arkansas St. 214 RPI (away) W Georgia Southern 146 RPI (home) W Texas A&M Corpus 205 RPI (home) W Oral Roberts 129 RPI (away) W Detroit 170 RPI (home) W Arkansas 46 RPI (away) L Arkansas St. 214 RPI (home) W Wisconsin-Mil. 53 RPI (away) W This does not seem like it warrants #6 in the nation to me. Have to hand it to Elgin for beating the system. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
billiken_roy Posted February 28, 2006 Share Posted February 28, 2006 it reflects the self imposed penalty for playing the 250+ rpi teams that so many schools play 4-5 times each season. the mvc didnt play any of those games let alone 4-5 of them. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
billiken_roy Posted February 28, 2006 Share Posted February 28, 2006 tseugnekillib suggested to me over the weekend that if mi$$ouri was going to fire alden, wouldnt elgin be the perfect guy to bring in and straighten out the mess. elgin has been a wonderful commish for the mvc. i wish ms bruno could attend his classes. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SShoe Posted February 28, 2006 Share Posted February 28, 2006 Roy, we had this discussion earlier, but this is why I don't believe the MVC teams are that good. The RPI does not accurately illustrate how average these teams really are. None of these teams are as good as their RPI suggests. As said, Elgin beat the system and now the MVC has reaped the benefit. I honestly believe, maybe I'm wrong, that the Selection committee knows this and will not give out five bids to this conference. Hopefully, we'll be the beneficiary (if we take care of our own business) of lessened bids to the MVC. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SLUDrew Posted February 28, 2006 Share Posted February 28, 2006 Even when you consider those buy games we had, I still think we scheduled more ambitiously than Mo State. In fact, in terms of OOC, SLU alone played as many teams that are currently ranked (3) as the entire Valley. The Valley, while appearing to have scheduled very wisely, I think got a little lucky as well. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SShoe Posted February 28, 2006 Share Posted February 28, 2006 right, playing Georgia Southern twice is the same as scheduling Savannah State and then Duke. Obviously the second is more difficult as you'd likely end up 1-1, rather than 2-0 with the same SOS. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kshoe Posted February 28, 2006 Share Posted February 28, 2006 Team A plays Duke and Savanah St. Team B plays Boise St and Lehigh. From an RPI perspective those two are about the same. Duke and Savanah St. have an average winning % of .500 as do Boise St. and Lehigh. You tell me, is it easier to win 2 games if you are team B or Team A. Just because Elgin has figured out the RPI math the best and the teams in the Valley are willing to give up the "buy" games and the extra revenue from those games does not necessarily mean they are BETTER than the teams from the big conferences. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Taj79 Posted February 28, 2006 Share Posted February 28, 2006 ... baffle 'em with bullsh*t. If all else fails, use statistics! That was a sign my dad had on his desk at work and I think its relevant today in discussing the MO State stuff. Now, while I'm sure the intent of the RPI was good, someone, somewhere was going to figure out a way to make it work. Maybe that's Elgin. In any case, a good offense weapon eventually becomes a good defensive weapon even it weren't designed that way. But come on .. we played UNC, Gonzaga, Iowa, SIU, and UW-M .. out of curiosity what is our OOC number? I guess we can take some hits for those Kennesaw, Jackson, Chicago and EIllinois games but to what level? Were they so much worse than what MO State has here that playing them sunk the gains that the aforementioned games HAD to bring to bear? If that is indeed the case, we need to throw the book out and start off with adopting a similar mid-major mind set to be more successful. Still don't think the Valley will get five and am still happy to be in the more closely suited A-10 but how come we aren't thinking this way? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
billiken_roy Posted February 28, 2006 Share Posted February 28, 2006 that would be admitting they f'd up the rpi. i would guess they indeed give the 4+ bids and then change the system going forward. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kshoe Posted February 28, 2006 Share Posted February 28, 2006 believes the RPI is perfect. Its just one tool but for whatever reason its the one that the mass media and fans have latched onto and the be-all answer. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
waterboy Posted February 28, 2006 Author Share Posted February 28, 2006 Our non-conference RPI was 128 based on a SOS of 70. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Taj79 Posted February 28, 2006 Share Posted February 28, 2006 ... what you are saying there Mr. Bouchet, is Mo State has a #6 RPI based on an Out of Conference schedule with a rank of 45. In comparison, Saint Louis University had a 128 RPI based on an Out of Conference schedule with a rank of 70? Just trying to line up the right numbers. Which still means, unless corrected to me, that even though we played those five or so "tough" OOC games, they did not bring enough balance to the "buy" games on that schedule thereby resulting in a crappy overall RPI. Correct? In other words, it is better to scheudle the middle of the road teams than trying to strike a hard/easy balance, yes? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jjray Posted February 28, 2006 Share Posted February 28, 2006 >>In other words, it is better to scheudle the middle of the road teams than trying to strike a hard/easy balance, yes?<< The moral to the story in a nutshell. We need to hammer that story home around the A10. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iggy Posted February 28, 2006 Share Posted February 28, 2006 Keep scheduling the tough games...just win one or two of them. Then, of course, stay away from the really bad games. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SShoe Posted February 28, 2006 Share Posted February 28, 2006 >Keep scheduling the tough games...just win one or two of >them. Then, of course, stay away from the really bad games. That's the main lesson. Stay away from the scrubs. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bay Area Billiken Posted February 28, 2006 Share Posted February 28, 2006 My concern with the Missouri Valley is if that league gets more teams in the NCAA than it really deserves. The MVC Commissioner figured out how to maximize its teams' RPI's and deserves compliments for that. My contention is that the RPI should not be the end all. But in reality, based on history and with only a few exceptions year to year, if any, the RPI really is the bottom line. Only the biggest Saluki apologist could claim that SIU is better than SLU. SLU beat SIU by 14 points! That should count for something. It should count for more than .6 of a win in the RPI. SIU has no one even comparable to Ian Vouyoukas or Tommie Liddell. Jamaal Tatum is a fine player, but come on, he is no Tommie Liddell. I watched some of SIU's game against UNI, and it literally looked like SIU was on life support, even in winning the game. The announcers commented that SIU's "Attack Dog" defense, without much of a bench, had worn the team out this year. SIU is the beneficiary of the tiebreaker to get that #2 seed in the MVC Tournament. Out here, Gonzaga rallied last night and beat USF 75-72 in The Kennel in Spokane, an utter madhouse, on a last second three pointer by the guard from Montreal. Both St. Mary's and USF have now had near misses in The Kennel this year, SMC under some highly questionable circumstances. Although the Zags ran the table and were undefeated in WCC play, it is no given that they will win the WCC Tournament, even on their home floor. If an upset happens in the WCC Tournament, an NCAA at large bid will be lost for someone else. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
waterboy Posted February 28, 2006 Author Share Posted February 28, 2006 The numbers are right, according to Ken Pom -- which is almost identical to the RPI right now. Here is my take. Elgin has (or had) been on the NCAA tournament selection committee for years. I am sure that behind closed doors he kept hearing the group make decisions based on the RPI. Maybe, he (Elgin) put the time in to understand how the RPI really operated, having seen its power as a decision making criteria. Here is what seems to have worked-- my opinions, not science: 1) Avoid scheudling complete cupcakes (250+ RPI) 2) Schedule regional rivalry type games against the so-called power conferences: i.e. Northern Iowa v. Iowa, Indiana St. v. Indiana, etc. These games tend to be "high adrenaline" and can get you wins against the traditionally high RPI conferences. 3) Retain your conference's good coaches. 4) Do not have your best team win the conference tournament if they are likely guaranteed a bid anyway. This is probably "taboo" to discuss, but seemed to happen quite a bit in the MVC---that way, you are guaranteed two bids and more money for the conference. 5) The Bracket Buster games---exposure and quality games against similar opponents. I actually would not mind an A10-MVC challenge if it was given good media attention. Ultimately, the teams must also take care of business on the court and the Valley did a great job with that as well. What really killed the A10 was GWs incredibly shameful schedule, the unexpected weaknesses of Xavier, Dayton and Charlotte, etc. and the fact that St. Bonaventure and Duquesne were worse than most "buy game" type teams. To the Valley people, I am not critical of this at all. I only wish that the A10 was in a similar position this year (5 or 6 teams with good RPIs). The NCAA tournament outcome will judge whether the Valley was justified in its number of bids. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
billiken_roy Posted February 28, 2006 Share Posted February 28, 2006 first and foremost you gotta win. a loss never helps much. but if you take away 5 dud games and schedule 5 games vs average mid majors and win those plus play 4 or 5 marquee teams and win a couple that is going to be a huge difference. that would result in better than the mvc teams just playing all non-conference against average mid majors and winning most if not all. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
billiken_roy Posted February 28, 2006 Share Posted February 28, 2006 i agree with what you are saying in principal and totally understand your concerns, however the problem with not having a central control mechanism to base most of the decision on and making it all a matter of committeemen agreeing on the teams is it becomes far too political and subject to decisions for all the WRONG reasons as well. the answer imo is to fix the rpi or even better yet, is as i have always stated, just let everyone in. of course then you have seeding concerns and then it becomes a big deal as to how to seed 330 teams. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kshoe Posted February 28, 2006 Share Posted February 28, 2006 is that they went 8-1 vs. the 45th best OOC schedule and we only went 6-6 vs. the 70th best schedule. If we had gone 8-1 vs. our OOC schedule we'd be talking about what region we hope to get sent to... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Billiken75 Posted February 28, 2006 Share Posted February 28, 2006 Thanks for the good insights. Let's hope our AD is able to spread the word and get the A-10 back on track. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Taj79 Posted March 1, 2006 Share Posted March 1, 2006 I think I now understand ... but for the life of me, I can't fathom that the teams on Mo State's OOC list comprise the 45th BEST OOC SCHEDULE out there ..... short of Arkansas, who dat????? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
slufanskip Posted March 1, 2006 Share Posted March 1, 2006 I said that about the MVC 2 months ago ... Notre Dame did it in Football a couple of years ago. Had a very good SOS while playing no one really good, just no one really bad either Official Billikens.com sponsor of H. Waldman Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BeeLine Posted March 1, 2006 Share Posted March 1, 2006 The part of the RPI equation that many of you are missing is the 25% that is your opponent's opponent's record. When you play crappy 250+ RPI teams, guess what. They usually play in crappy conferences with a lot of other 200+ RPI teams with sub.500 records. All of these become part of your RPI formula, 25% to be exact. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SLUDrew Posted March 1, 2006 Share Posted March 1, 2006 In fact, as a WHOLE, the Valley has played 3 games against opponents who are currently ranked in their non-con schedules. SLU has done that by themselves. Yet we are not even yet on the bubble while SIU, who we slaughtered, is on the inside of the bubble if not in the field of 64 already Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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