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Predictions for Meyer?


Box and Won

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I'm curious as to how everyone thinks Luke Meyer will perform this year. Personally, I have no idea because I've never seen him play and out of all our recruits, he's the player I've heard the least about. Will he be able to step in and contribute in a spot role this season, or will he ride the bench (or even be redshirted)? I'm looking forward to seeing him play - does he have any similarities to past Billikens?

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For us out of town guys I would like to see some projections from those who have seen him play. Any chance he'll be a Sloan type, i.e. just can't keep him off the floor because of his hustle and desire? Is he another Drew Diener, rare moments of brilliance but not a real strong D1 player?

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The Sloan you're describing is the guy we saw as an upperclassman. The Sloan we saw as a freshman looked lost on the floor, just like most freshman and played only 9 minutes a game on a team that was sorely lacking in guard play.

Meyer is a better three point-shooter than Sloan was coming out of high school and shoots 85% from the free throw loan so he has the potential to be more of a factor offensively than Sloan was as a freshman.

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Scott Highmark. Hopefully, he'll be able to shoot it well. If he can use his intelligence and positioning, he could eventually be effective. We don't have any strong wing players, so he'll have his opportunities. The question is whether he'll have quick enough feet to hold his own on the defensive side.

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I covered several of Luke Meyer's games over his four-year varsity career at Borgia.

I've thought about this subject before, and I'm not sure what kind of player Meyer will be at St. Louis U.

With his great mid-range game, he could be a dangerous option offensively. But when I last saw him play, in the Riverwar All-Star game at UMSL, he looked lost on a court filled with a bunch of great athletes (the game Dwayne Polk scored 37).

The answer, certainly, is Luke will be somewhere in between. He will struggle, but he has the potential to be a strong contributor -- definitely in a couple years if not right away. He is a great mid-range shooter, is solid from behind the 3-point arc and in high school showed he could get to the free throw line and knock down foul shots. Defensively, he was good enough to be offered a scholarship from Brad, so he must have some ability there.

- Nate

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i admit i have never seen luke play, but the descriptions i have heard leads me to believe he is at best another tom kleinschmidt from depaul or maybe wardell from marquette? at worst, he is at least troy robertson. if that is correct, i would roll the dice on that.

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to a junior or senior isn't really fair. You pointed out Chris Sloan barely got any time as a freshman as SLU but by his senior year was the leader fo the team. He didn't swtich schools but rather just matured physically and mentally.

I always hate when people suggest "that player was good, but he wouldn't be good enough to play at University X." It stinks of the attitude the bigger conferences have towards smaller conferences. I also hate it when people on this board say he's a really good player for the MVC but I don't think he can play in CUSA. Players are players and guys like Kent Williams, Wardle and others would be very good players no matter what University they are at. If Meyer is as good as Wardle (and I have no idea if he is) he will get mucho minutes for the Bills, no matter how good we are.

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You're preaching to the choir here. Dan Dickau, Tom Kleinschmidt and Reggie Bryant were all freshmen once on decent, not great teams. None of them played "mucho minutes" as freshmen and I don't expect Luke will either. That doesn't mean he can't be a starter as a junior/senior and I've never said otherwise.

And I certainly don't believe that the best players in the big conferences are necessarily better than the best players in the smaller conferences. There's just more talent from top to bottom, which means some good players don't get to showcase their talents. The 6th man for Illinois is going to be better than the 6th man for Creighton. He might even be the leading scorer for Creighton. That's just reality.

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Forget allstar games; they're an advanced form of bucket. Luke was the man at Borgia, and played in a structure. When he played against Vashon, he wasn't overwhelmed. We all know Brad provides a structure, and I think Luke will thrive in it. I'm not writing off his freshman year, and I expect more than Troy Robertson. He might be another Scott.

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You are right, all-star games mean about as much as a pickup game. At the Borgia-Vashon game, to me Luke appeared to be not only the best player on the floor, but also the most athletic (or maybe just the most physically aggressive and decisive). I still would bet on him coming off the bench b/c he is trying to get used to the D1 game. Of course, I also think the same thing about Polk.

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I agree with your point that most freshman don't make a huge impact and take a year or two to get in the groove: Clagget, Bryant, Perry, etc. And I think the same will be the case for Meyer and Polk. That being said, Wardle was the exception, a big-time recruit for Marqette and would have started for any D1 team his sophmore year.

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I'd agree that the disparity between the major conferences and the other conferences aren't as great as they used to be. But let's be real, there is a difference. Also, the jumping to the NBA of many elite players also plays a role.

But ask any coach, including Brad, if there's a different caliber athlete and skill player in say the typical Big 12 and MVC athlete. There's no doubt that there is. True, there are exceptions where players fall under the radar for various reasons. Like Darren Brooks of SIUC, who wasn't recruited heavily because he played at a small school and I believe sat out part of his senior year. That's strictly from memory, so I'm not sure. It was either that or he was also considered a better baseball prospect.

It's important that St. Joseph, Gonzaga, and SIUC have superior evaluation skills to uncover that below-the-radar prospect or player who just missed the cut at being offered by a Mizzou, Duke or Illinois...

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Depends on what u call "mucho minutes", i don't know the other cats....but Reg played good minutes for a freshman at Nova, at least 20-25 mins average per game......that's why he never complained about starting, because he was first off the bench, and his time was more than he expected. (I know just a small point, but wanted to interject) He played the roll of the clean up man, he made very very big plays for Nova, in the Big East, he had already played most of the opposing players anyway and knew their game from Prep school. So I think even as a freshman, a player could make a difference. Bench players provide a different element to the game and have fresh legs coming into the game. If our freshman are hungry they'll come in and produce, I don't doubt that. If they're producing, they'll get substantial minutes.

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imo, the biggest difference between a high-major conference (ACC for example) and a mid-major conference (MVC for example) is the physical size and athleticism of the players. I'm guessing that the average ACC roster is at least two inches taller and 25 pounds heavier than an average MVC roster, and probably more.

The skill sets (focusing here later on just shooting) are about the same or may even favor the mid-major schools.

3-POINT SHOOTING PERCENTAGES (top five schools)

ACC 2003-2004 stats

Wake 39%, FlaSt 38%, GaTech 37%, Duke 36%, NC 35%

MVC 2002-2003 stats

IllSt 45%, SIUC 43%, Wichita 39%, UNI 39%, Evansville 37%

FIELD GOAL PERCENTAGES

Wake 48%, Duke 47%, GaTech 47%, NC 46%, NCSt 45%

Creighton 49%, SIUC 48%, Evansville 47%, Drake 47%, Wichita 46%

FREE THROW PERCENTAGES

NCSt 80%, Duke 74%, Wake 71%, GaTech 69%, NC 69%

Wichita 76%, Evansville 76%, SIUC 72%, IllSt 72%, Creighton 72%

I'm not sure the "superior talent evaluation skills" is to total answer to recruiting success. I believe you need to add in the inherited talent base and coaching staff continuity as well. Dan Monson was 52-17 at Gonzaga and now he is 67-57 at Minnesota. Monson didn't lose any talent evaluation skills driving from Spokane to Minneapolis.

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