The Wiz Posted December 6, 2015 Share Posted December 6, 2015 It is a C. As of today, are we a good team?.....no....Are we a bad team?...no... We are an average team. The significance of Dec 6 is that we have the first lock down grade. What this means is there is enough data at this point to draw some conclusions. Generally, what ever your grade is after game 7, there can then be a variance of 2 notches by the end of the season. In the Bills case, this means as high as B- or as low as D+. Grades generally correlate in the following matter...... A+ thru A- ...NCAA March Madness ..obviously I am excluding auto bids here....just deserving teams B+ and a few Bs......NIT The rest of the Bs and a few B- 's....CBI So in a best case scenario an outside chance at a CBI...in a worst case scenario...same as last year...most likely scenario...better than last year but not enough improvement to satisfy most. The next lock down grade will be after the K-St game on Dec 29. At that point, the variance drops to 1 notch. In other words by the time you get to conference play you are pretty much locked in. You are what you are. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Taj79 Posted December 6, 2015 Share Posted December 6, 2015 I'll assume those are the hard cold numbers. What I don't like right now is the "duck" test ---- if it walks like a duck, quacks like a duck and smells like a duck, it is a duck. If you can't dazzle 'em with brilliance,baffle 'em with bullshat. When all else fails, use statistics. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Wiz Posted December 6, 2015 Author Share Posted December 6, 2015 I'll assume those are the hard cold numbers. What I don't like right now is the "duck" test ---- if it walks like a duck, quacks like a duck and smells like a duck, it is a duck. If you can't dazzle 'em with brilliance,baffle 'em with bullshat. When all else fails, use statistics. The numbers don't lie as long as you have enough of them Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Old guy Posted December 6, 2015 Share Posted December 6, 2015 I agree with Wiz statistics do not lie, however it may be difficult to interpret them and come up with projections that fit actual events. This is why a certain number of actual results are needed to reach a satisfactory level of accuracy in the predictions. You may think of this as a gaussian distribution curve. When you have enough data your predictions may be correct say 95% of the time (at least at some levels), that is 2 standard deviations on each side of the median. Getting more data allows you to refine the accuracy of the predictions. The problem is that we are not dealing with a real gaussian distribution here, there are any number of variables that will change the shape of the curve if you may. The curve may get fatter tails outside the 2 standard deviations, or become thin and narrow with tiny tails and an very high level of values surrounding the median. This is what makes statistics fascinating, at least to me if no one else. The test of walking like a duck, quacking like a duck and smelling like a duck (what in heavens do ducks smell like?) is a qualitative test if you may. The numbers, statistics and curves are more of a quantitative test, two very different things, apples and oranges. And yes, Taj, if you cannot dazzle them with brilliancy you can always baffle them with bullshat, is that not what politicians do most of the time? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BigMouthBilliken Posted December 6, 2015 Share Posted December 6, 2015 I agree with Wiz statistics do not lie, however it may be difficult to interpret them and come up with projections that fit actual events. This is why a certain number of actual results are needed to reach a satisfactory level of accuracy in the predictions. You may think of this as a gaussian distribution curve. When you have enough data your predictions may be correct say 95% of the time (at least at some levels), that is 2 standard deviations on each side of the median. Getting more data allows you to refine the accuracy of the predictions. The problem is that we are not dealing with a real gaussian distribution here, there are any number of variables that will change the shape of the curve if you may. The curve may get fatter tails outside the 2 standard deviations, or become thin and narrow with tiny tails and an very high level of values surrounding the median. This is what makes statistics fascinating, at least to me if no one else. The test of walking like a duck, quacking like a duck and smelling like a duck (what in heavens do ducks smell like?) is a qualitative test if you may. The numbers, statistics and curves are more of a quantitative test, two very different things, apples and oranges. And yes, Taj, if you cannot dazzle them with brilliancy you can always baffle them with bullshat, is that not what politicians do most of the time? You like to write, don't you? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JettFlight5 Posted December 6, 2015 Share Posted December 6, 2015 I appreciate the Wiz's insight, but I think the comment of is this a good or bad team is simpler than he suggests. This, right now, is a bad basketball team. We all hope that statement can be changed. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Old guy Posted December 6, 2015 Share Posted December 6, 2015 You like to write, don't you? You like to write, don't you? You like to write, don't you? You like to write, don't you? How did you guess? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
almaman Posted December 7, 2015 Share Posted December 7, 2015 How did you guess? good comeback. keep up the essays got to have something to read on here Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cowboy Posted December 7, 2015 Share Posted December 7, 2015 -Wiz, any chance you could post the grades for the teams we have played? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Wiz Posted December 7, 2015 Author Share Posted December 7, 2015 -Wiz, any chance you could post the grades for the teams we have played? This is through Dec 6..... Har........D- SIU-e....F+ St. F......D- N Fla.....B- Lville.....A+ MH........B- WSU.....B+ And the Bills are at C Btw, I was going to do an A-10 report card but there are still 3 teams that don't have 7 D-1 games yet. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cowboy Posted December 7, 2015 Share Posted December 7, 2015 -thank you Wiz -that N FL game seems a long time ago.... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tonka Posted December 7, 2015 Share Posted December 7, 2015 This is through Dec 6..... Har........D- SIU-e....F+ St. F......D- N Fla.....B- Lville.....A+ MH........B- WSU.....B+ And the Bills are at C Btw, I was going to do an A-10 report card but there are still 3 teams that don't have 7 D-1 games yet. So, basically we beat the teams we should have beat and lost to the teams we should have lost to? Except for N Fla, that would be an upset then? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Wiz Posted December 7, 2015 Author Share Posted December 7, 2015 So, basically we beat the teams we should have beat and lost to the teams we should have lost to? Except for N Fla, that would be an upset then? Yes...we are where we are supposed tp be at 4-3.....Win the 3 easy ones and lose the 2 hard ones and split the 2 B- ones for a 4-3 record. The 2 B- teams (N Fl & Morehead) would both be even games playing at the Fetz today.. If you have 2 even games , you generally wind up splitting them which we did.. Beating a team like N Fl, which is pretty much an even game now, would hardly be an upset. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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