kwyjibo Posted March 11, 2014 Share Posted March 11, 2014 Saint Louis is currently a consensus 5 pick with the crop of 64 bracketologists updating yesterday. This reflects that the fact the Billikens current RPI is 18th and their profile factors (after picking up a road top 25 win) are not helping nor hurting a great deal. DanceCard has SLU at a 4 seed but that reflects that they do not use a home/road adjusted RPI and the committee uses the adjusted RPI. 3 2%4 11%5 59%6 23%7 3%8 2% Where could SLU go? I normally use RPIforecast.com to figure out where SLU could end up but the calculations there are wrong once the season ends (this has been a problem and last year I forgot this and made poor forecasts using this site--it is a great site but their forecasts for the conference tournaments are now way overstated and wrong). RPIforecast thinks the range of RPI's after the A-10 tourney is 9-29 and these are most likely extreme cases rather than expected ranks. So, I made the calculations myself. I cannot completely predict where all the past SLU opponents will end up but my estimates are near perfect because the implications of hot or cold streaks collectively by old opponents will not make a great difference (read the below with a margin of error of around 1-2 ranks). A-10 Result Forecast RPI Forecast RPI Rank NCAA Seed 0-1 0.6103 24 6-71-1 0.6124 21 5-62-1 0.6145 18 53-0 0.6221 14 4 I actually think the 3 seed would still be in play but it would totally be dependent on how the other teams breakdown (need losses for teams in the 9-15 range of the RPI) as well as beating another top 25 RPI team (VCU/UMass/GW in the finals). Also, winning the tournament would tip SLU's non-RPI factors back to the positive so the committee might give them a 3 if other teams in that range end conf tourneys as losers. I am also assuming St. Joe's or Dayton in the Semi but even SLU beats an upset team in the semis they would lock down at least a 5 seed. Losing to LaSalle or St. Bonnie's could very well give SLU a 7 seed (again, controlled largely by other teams) but most teams end with a loss so likely a 6. ALSO, I was at the Amherst game and had a great time (was pretty subdued as I was sitting in the UMass season ticket holder section). It was great to see the team live for the first time. You get a much better appreciation of the speed of the game live. I will be in Brooklyn as well so if you are interested you can say hi. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NH Posted March 11, 2014 Share Posted March 11, 2014 Thanks. These posts are really helpful for understanding SLU's projections. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brianstl Posted March 11, 2014 Share Posted March 11, 2014 Really appreciate these updates. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
slufan13 Posted March 11, 2014 Share Posted March 11, 2014 Based on that it kind of seems like we are playing for a seed in every game. A quarterfinal win assures no worse than a 6. A loss is still probably a 6 seed but 7 is possible. A semifinal win probably assures no worse than a 5. And winning it probably gives us a 4. Usually I didn't expect that much movement from game to game in a conference tournament. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bills10 Posted March 11, 2014 Share Posted March 11, 2014 Can anyone compile a list of who to root for to win their conferences? I know we don't want any surprise winners to maximize the chances for more a10 at large bids. Got a huge week in school or I would put in the time... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deutschkind Posted March 11, 2014 Share Posted March 11, 2014 Can anyone compile a list of who to root for to win their conferences? I know we don't want any surprise winners to maximize the chances for more a10 at large bids. Got a huge week in school or I would put in the time... Let's see: (mostly based of ESPN's Bubble Watch. Sorry to those who hate the 4-letter network of the tournaments so far, only the Valley was important and WSU won that, so the Valley will be one bid. Mountain West - SDSU or New Mexico WCC - Gonzaga, although BYU has a decent chance at a bid on it's own merit. Lunardi has them in SEC - UF and UK - Tenn and Ark are bubble, cheering against Mizzou just because American - Cinn, UConn, Louisville, Memphis, SMU - anyone else would be a bid-stealer ACC - Duke, Syr, UNC, UVA Big 12 - apparently they're looking at 7 bids, so cheer against Texas Tech, TCU, and WV NBE - cheer for Nova (or technically Creighton, I guess) B1G - UW, Mich, MSU, OSU, Iowa Pac 12 - Zona, UCLA (or Oregon) CUSA - Southern Miss or Louisiana Tech are the only teams at all able to get an at large All other conferences will be one bid no matter who wins Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JMM28 Posted March 11, 2014 Share Posted March 11, 2014 You want power conference teams ahead of SLU in the rankings to lose. You want the mid major leagues to send their best. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deutschkind Posted March 12, 2014 Share Posted March 12, 2014 You want power conference teams ahead of SLU in the rankings to lose. You want the mid major leagues to send their best. True. My list was straight "let's get the least amount of bid stealers and bring the most A10 teams as possible." In terms of SLU, we want chaos up top to move up in seed Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
almaman Posted March 12, 2014 Share Posted March 12, 2014 lot's of upsets so far in shttty conferences meaning top seeds have even easier opponent firstreal rd. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
billikenfan05 Posted March 12, 2014 Share Posted March 12, 2014 lot's of upsets so far in shttty conferences meaning top seeds have even easier opponent firstreal rd. I would be terrified to play Mount Saint Mary's.... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Join the conversation
You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.