ARon Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 <blockquote class='ipsBlockquote'data-author="bills10" data-cid="342728" data-time="1360864821"><p> The ESPN BPI takes this into account, which i find to be an interesting part of their rankings</p></blockquote> The BPI does try to take this into account but it is majorly flawed. Their computer determines if a player is a "key" player based on whether they are one of the guys to play the most minutes throughout the year. But if someone hasn't played a lot of minutes (because they are injured!!) they aren't considered key. For example, when I last checked it did not consider our games without KM as missing a key player because he wasn't a top minutes guy for us. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Wiz Posted February 14, 2013 Author Share Posted February 14, 2013 THIS. It is apparent from his responses and previous posts that The Wiz has tier levels for teams, which is why he gives out the 'grade' levels (A, B+, etc.) Since he has these tiers in his program, he went and looked to see what percentage of teams from each tier have made it into the tournament. As his program now lists Butler as a B+ team, and 20% of B+ teams have made the tourney in the past few years, then he is placing Butler's probability at making the tournament at 20% right now. Of course,you really can't make a straight-line probability comparison in this way. Just because 20% of B+ teams have made the tournament in the past does not necessarily make Butler's chances of making the tournament this season 1 in 5, even if just using The Wiz's efficiency rankings in a complete vacuum away from all other outside factors. That is a very simple way of trying to figure the probability of a singular team's chances of making the NCAA tournament and has way too many flaws. as it only takes into consideration one factor (teams in tier X making it in past.) +1 or at least close to it. My bad...I mixed 2 different type of forecast modalities in the same thread. There is the usual predictive game spread but I also did the A-10 Big Dance current chances which is not predictive. In addition by using the % it made it look even more like a prediction. As an example on the predictive model going forward....I have Butler going 4-2. If in fact they do go 4-2 they will be dancing. The 20% just assesses their chances as of today using a straightline probability and not taking into account future events. ...just a current marker probably best suited and used at the conclusion of the A-10 tourney. At the time of posting, it didn't seem like a big deal. In hindsight, it just created confusion. Sorry about that. The one thing this board doesn't need is any additional confusion. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbizzle09 Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 +1 or at least close to it.My bad...I mixed 2 different type of forecast modalities in the same thread. There is the usual predictive game spread but I also did the A-10 Big Dance current chances which is not predictive. In addition by using the % it made it look even more like a prediction. As an example on the predictive model going forward....I have Butler going 4-2. If in fact they do go 4-2 they will be dancing. The 20% just assesses their chances as of today using a straightline probability and not taking into account future events. ...just a current marker probably best suited and used at the conclusion of the A-10 tourney. At the time of posting, it didn't seem like a big deal. In hindsight, it just created confusion. Sorry about that. The one thing this board doesn't need is any additional confusion. No problem, Wiz. I'm glad you didn't take it personally. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showthebill Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 I disagree. Charlotte played a weaker non-conference schedule than we did. (No kidding) Only one good team. (Granted, it was a quality Miami squad) They have one good win. ONE. That was their game last night at Hinkle-without BU's big man. I think, assuming the Bills show up, we cover the Wiz's spread fairly easily. We're the class of this league and we'll continue to show it on Saturday. Charlotte's RPI is now in the forties whereas we're still stuck at 56. Computers think otherwise Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brianstl Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 Charlotte's RPI is now in the forties whereas we're still stuck at 56. Computers think otherwise RPI vastly overrates the niners. Pomeroy has them at 105. We should handle them. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
slubilliken09 Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 +1 or at least close to it.My bad...I mixed 2 different type of forecast modalities in the same thread. There is the usual predictive game spread but I also did the A-10 Big Dance current chances which is not predictive. In addition by using the % it made it look even more like a prediction. As an example on the predictive model going forward....I have Butler going 4-2. If in fact they do go 4-2 they will be dancing. The 20% just assesses their chances as of today using a straightline probability and not taking into account future events. ...just a current marker probably best suited and used at the conclusion of the A-10 tourney. At the time of posting, it didn't seem like a big deal. In hindsight, it just created confusion. Sorry about that. The one thing this board doesn't need is any additional confusion. Totally didn't mean to criticize. Just wanted to inquire about the system. I always appreciate your insight and number-crunching. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quality Is Job 1 Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 Forgetting for a moment about the fact that, barring a meltdown, Butler is a tourney team, I would also make the point that Charlotte still has the potential to be as well. They've been under-rated all year. On top of that, the Butler win makes this a HUGE game for them in the standings.SLU would be wise to not look past them, regardless of the home court advantage. Hopefully Crews has them focused. The last spot SLU wants to be is at 7-3 and going on the road to Butler. Huge game for us as well. I'd take Charlotte to at least beat an 11 1/2 pt spread. This will be a tough game. That's not possible. When the Bills go to Butler, they'll be 9-2, 8-3, or 7-4 (9-2 is my expectation). Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
spoonie_love Posted February 16, 2013 Share Posted February 16, 2013 That's not possible. When the Bills go to Butler, they'll be 9-2, 8-3, or 7-4 (9-2 is my expectation). My bad. I meant 8-3 (or yes, worse). Thx. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SLU7881 Posted February 16, 2013 Share Posted February 16, 2013 "I'd take Charlotte to at least beat an 11 1/2 pt spread. This will be a tough game." I agree. Very good post players, and savvy 6'4" guard. Cant be looking past this team. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bills10 Posted February 16, 2013 Share Posted February 16, 2013 Has it been mentioned that their leading scorer and one of their top bench players are both out? They were out against butler too, but it makes consistency much more difficult when you are short handed Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BACKHANDtheRICAN Posted February 16, 2013 Share Posted February 16, 2013 +1 or at least close to it. My bad...I mixed 2 different type of forecast modalities in the same thread. There is the usual predictive game spread but I also did the A-10 Big Dance current chances which is not predictive. In addition by using the % it made it look even more like a prediction. As an example on the predictive model going forward....I have Butler going 4-2. If in fact they do go 4-2 they will be dancing. The 20% just assesses their chances as of today using a straightline probability and not taking into account future events. ...just a current marker probably best suited and used at the conclusion of the A-10 tourney. At the time of posting, it didn't seem like a big deal. In hindsight, it just created confusion. Sorry about that. The one thing this board doesn't need is any additional confusion. Bizzle > Wiz Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Join the conversation
You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.