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Bills by 10 over X


The Wiz

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The X win earlier in the season is probably as good a win as we have had over anyone. A sweep would be sweet.

A-10 report card.......

A+.....The Bills

A-......Temple

B+.....X...St. J...Day...La S.....St. Bon

B.......UMass

B-......Rich

C+.....Duq ...Char

C.......GW

D+.....RI

D-......Ford

On another note ....I went to the FH yesterday to watch the game. Where is the Billiken.com section located?

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The X win earlier in the season is probably as good a win as we have had over anyone. A sweep would be sweet.

A-10 report card.......

A+.....The Bills

A-......Temple

B+.....X...St. J...Day...La S.....St. Bon

B.......UMass

B-......Rich

C+.....Duq ...Char

C.......GW

D+.....RI

D-......Ford

On another note ....I went to the FH yesterday to watch the game. Where is the Billiken.com section located?

There were a few of us on the bar side. We sat at at the booths and a couple of tables in the middle. By my count, attendees yesterday were myself, West Pine Jim, Westy03, Backhand, 05 and BilliKitty. I also believe Iggy was there. My apologies if I missed anyone, but that was who I noticed in the area we were sitting at.

On another note, I think Jim has crossed the FH off of his Billiken game viewing list. He mentioned to me that he has seen two games there now (UNM and URI) and both games ended in heartbreaking losses!

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On another note, I think Jim has crossed the FH off of his Billiken game viewing list. He mentioned to me that he has seen two games there now (UNM and URI) and both games ended in heartbreaking losses!

If Jim hasn't crossed it off his Billiken game viewing list, then we'll do it for him. Sorry, Jim, but good luck getting into FH for your next billiken game (pre-gaming at FH is still ok).

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There were a few of us on the bar side. We sat at at the booths and a couple of tables in the middle. By my count, attendees yesterday were myself, West Pine Jim, Westy03, Backhand, 05 and BilliKitty. I also believe Iggy was there. My apologies if I missed anyone, but that was who I noticed in the area we were sitting at.

On another note, I think Jim has crossed the FH off of his Billiken game viewing list. He mentioned to me that he has seen two games there now (UNM and URI) and both games ended in heartbreaking losses!

Bishop and I were there. Sat at the bar slamming Wild Turkey. Would have bought you a congratulatory shot!

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There were a few of us on the bar side. We sat at at the booths and a couple of tables in the middle. By my count, attendees yesterday were myself, West Pine Jim, Westy03, Backhand, 05 and BilliKitty. I also believe Iggy was there. My apologies if I missed anyone, but that was who I noticed in the area we were sitting at.

On another note, I think Jim has crossed the FH off of his Billiken game viewing list. He mentioned to me that he has seen two games there now (UNM and URI) and both games ended in heartbreaking losses!

Wiz-

There is a defect in your program. It is saying that SLU is an A+ while Temple is an A-. I have a few available computer programmers at work who could help you out with fixing your code. Just let me know. Thanks!

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Wiz-

There is a defect in your program. It is saying that SLU is an A+ while Temple is an A-. I have a few available computer programmers at work who could help you out with fixing your code. Just let me know. Thanks!

You nailed it.

Wiz doesn't have a computer. That's the whole thing, he is just f*cking with us. Calling himseld The Wiz... (think of the final 10 minutes of a very famous movie). He says his computer is a predictive model, which incorporates margin of victory.

He wrote Sunday that SLU is ranked 16th.

I asked for the 1-25 he said he would wait until Monday when the other polls came out.

Some computer, knows SLU is 16 but does not know the other 24 teams yet.

SLU is about 35th, or so, and yes, if they win out and get to the Sweet 16, then they are 16th.

But based on current W-L, strength of schedule, wins vs top 25-50 teams, quality road wins, and subtract bad losses... we are not 16th. Yet. Even in Oz.

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You nailed it.

Wiz doesn't have a computer. That's the whole thing, he is just f*cking with us. Calling himseld The Wiz... (think of the final 10 minutes of a very famous movie). He says his computer is a predictive model, which incorporates margin of victory.

He wrote Sunday that SLU is ranked 16th.

I asked for the 1-25 he said he would wait until Monday when the other polls came out.

Some computer, knows SLU is 16 but does not know the other 24 teams yet.

SLU is about 35th, or so, and yes, if they win out and get to the Sweet 16, then they are 16th.

But based on current W-L, strength of schedule, wins vs top 25-50 teams, quality road wins, and subtract bad losses... we are not 16th. Yet. Even in Oz.

Do you ever get tired of writing the same post over and over again? Personally, I think you ARE actually a computer program who has been activated to respond whenever something about computer rankings, soccer, the MVC, Duke or Albert Pujols gets brought up on this board.

The best part is I am pretty sure that Backhand was using predictive methodology with his post, as he knew that the odds were very good that you were going to make a post just like you did!

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I tend to be closer to MB on this. I know what the computers say, but my eyes say in the 30 range. Maybe as high as 25, and maybe as low as 35.

Wow.

I might retire from Billikens.com with this post.

But then what would jbizzle09 have to do?

Win out, win the A-10 Tourney, then beat Mizzou-Mizzou in the 2nd round of the NCAA's, then listen to them cry.

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Wow.

I might retire from Billikens.com with this post.

But then what would jbizzle09 have to do?

Win out, win the A-10 Tourney, then beat Mizzou-Mizzou in the 2nd round of the NCAA's, then listen to them cry.

Me and smart-boy-toy would cry into our beers for a week if you left this board! ;)

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You nailed it.

Wiz doesn't have a computer. That's the whole thing, he is just f*cking with us. Calling himseld The Wiz... (think of the final 10 minutes of a very famous movie). He says his computer is a predictive model, which incorporates margin of victory.

He wrote Sunday that SLU is ranked 16th.

I asked for the 1-25 he said he would wait until Monday when the other polls came out.

Some computer, knows SLU is 16 but does not know the other 24 teams yet.

SLU is about 35th, or so, and yes, if they win out and get to the Sweet 16, then they are 16th.

But based on current W-L, strength of schedule, wins vs top 25-50 teams, quality road wins, and subtract bad losses... we are not 16th. Yet. Even in Oz.

Hmm....what do we have here.? Very interesting.

Well for those that are keeping score...please make a note now that i am typing on a ..??....a...?? hmm how am I doing this without a computer? Well MB will have to answer that I guess.

In any case MB seems to be making folly of my computer program...again something he says I don't have and again I will let him explain how he knows that. Moving on to his next important point...."he is just f*cking with us". Us?? Are there more than one of you MB? Next point ...I said I would wait till Mon to post the Top 25...you seem to have grasped that but missed the point of why I waited ...as though the computer program I had knew the results but refused to give them to me till Mon. A little more careful reading and you would have noticed I was waiting for the polls to come out as I thought it would be an interesting comparison.with my rankings. But yes, you are right I had the Top 25 last night and was waiting for Mr. AP to call and check in.....Conspiracy!?!?

But let's get to your main point, the trashing of the program....the one I don't have. Stay tuned for next week's flash when he tells you not only does Pomeroy not have a program but he is taking your money for no reason. Sagarin???he doesn't even own an abacus. But I digress. I notice some metrics in your post. SOS... assuming that is not a cry for help I will assume that is strength of schedule. Hmm....I wonder where you get those numbers?... do you figure it out ...surely you have calculated each team's (345 of them) RPI by hand. I didn't think so. So you are using data and metrics from a computer. It is now out ....MB uses computer data to help him write his posts...he is flaming on KenPom, BPI, Sagarin and the Wiz and is using computer data to do it.....oh the shame of it all.

I tell you what MB....I will make you a deal....You stop trashing all the computer people and I won't tell anyone you are using computer data to appear to be in the know. Might be a good time to review my signature quote from Descartes at the bottom of the page.

Who knows I might even let you in on the spreads and rankings first....mmm maybe not...then it would look like a conspiracy.

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No doubt.

Seriously though, MB, are you coming to the game tomorrow? Let me buy you a beer at the Fieldhouse before the game or during halftime.

I would do it but at this point, no, I am not going to the X game, though I might make a last minute appearance. I really have been a season ticket holder > 75% of the time on and off since the early '80's, sometimes buying from another, but not this yr.

At some point, though, I would enjoy meeting all of the warped Billiken fans on this board, maybe @ a sports bar during the A-10 Tourney or NCAA's to watch.

It would be hilarious.

Broy is mandatory, so are you and jbizzle09 and a few others, though I think you are not living in SL.

So keep that in mind, A-10 game or NCAA's.

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I would do it but at this point, no, I am not going to the X game, though I might make a last minute appearance. I really have been a season ticket holder > 75% of the time on and off since the early '80's, sometimes buying from another, but not this yr.

At some point, though, I would enjoy meeting all of the warped Billiken fans on this board, maybe @ a sports bar during the A-10 Tourney or NCAA's to watch.

It would be hilarious.

Broy is mandatory, so are you and jbizzle09 and a few others, though I think you are not living in SL.

So keep that in mind, A-10 game or NCAA's.

Come on, MB! Biggest game of the year; biggest game in many years! A chance to give me and jbizzle crap in person. Free beer. This is like the Haley's Comet of billikens basketball.

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I would do it but at this point, no, I am not going to the X game, though I might make a last minute appearance. I really have been a season ticket holder > 75% of the time on and off since the early '80's, sometimes buying from another, but not this yr.

At some point, though, I would enjoy meeting all of the warped Billiken fans on this board, maybe @ a sports bar during the A-10 Tourney or NCAA's to watch.

It would be hilarious.

Broy is mandatory, so are you and jbizzle09 and a few others, though I think you are not living in SL.

So keep that in mind, A-10 game or NCAA's.

The X game is on CBS Sports, thus FH will have the game available to watch if you aren't able to score a ticket. My thought is this: when are you going to have another chance to put Boytoy in his place, drink beer on his dime and smack me around, all at the same time? :D You'd also get a chance to team up with Roy and make sure nobody says anything bad about Cassity. ;)

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Hmm....what do we have here.? Very interesting.

Well for those that are keeping score...please make a note now that i am typing on a ..??....a...?? hmm how am I doing this without a computer? Well MB will have to answer that I guess.

In any case MB seems to be making folly of my computer program...again something he says I don't have and again I will let him explain how he knows that. Moving on to his next important point...."he is just f*cking with us". Us?? Are there more than one of you MB? Next point ...I said I would wait till Mon to post the Top 25...you seem to have grasped that but missed the point of why I waited ...as though the computer program I had knew the results but refused to give them to me till Mon. A little more careful reading and you would have noticed I was waiting for the polls to come out as I thought it would be an interesting comparison.with my rankings. But yes, you are right I had the Top 25 last night and was waiting for Mr. AP to call and check in.....Conspiracy!?!?

But let's get to your main point, the trashing of the program....the one I don't have. Stay tuned for next week's flash when he tells you not only does Pomeroy not have a program but he is taking your money for no reason. Sagarin???he doesn't even own an abacus. But I digress. I notice some metrics in your post. SOS... assuming that is not a cry for help I will assume that is strength of schedule. Hmm....I wonder where you get those numbers?... do you figure it out ...surely you have calculated each team's (345 of them) RPI by hand. I didn't think so. So you are using data and metrics from a computer. It is now out ....MB uses computer data to help him write his posts...he is flaming on KenPom, BPI, Sagarin and the Wiz and is using computer data to do it.....oh the shame of it all.

I tell you what MB....I will make you a deal....You stop trashing all the computer people and I won't tell anyone you are using computer data to appear to be in the know. Might be a good time to review my signature quote from Descartes at the bottom of the page.

Who knows I might even let you in on the spreads and rankings first....mmm maybe not...then it would look like a conspiracy.

Wiz you've been a good sport I have been a little over the top, please realize some of it was kidding around.

However, I still maintain that we are not 16th and never 11th or whatever your top ranking was recently, no way.

Yes, I look at computer models, too, I consider RPI to have flaws but to be the most reliable.

Currently, they have us 34th and SOS of 106. If you look at other models, our SOS is in the same ballpark, > 100.

We are in a mid major conference, about the 7th strongest, maybe 8th, it depends.

So with # 16 you are theoretically saying of all the top 8 conferences, take the top 2 teams, we are better than the # 3 in Big 10, # 3 in the BE, etc. And you are saying, we are a # 4 seed. Hell, you even say we are better than Temple, and that they are, what? Top 30? KenPom has us 12 and Temple 34.

Playing in an easier conference allows for focus on important games, whereas if you are in the BE or Big 10, etc, you play a quality opponent almost every 4th day, there is little breathing room, and there is a higher % of potential letdowns than in an easy conference.

IMO the A-10 is "down" this yr. too. Temple and us, thats it. X is talented but thus far dysfunctional, the team is talented as hell, top 15 material, but clubhouse problems galore. I hope they screw up at least one more game, tomorrow night.

Our out of conference SOS is bad according to all sources, not our fault, we sure thought BC-Nova-OK would be higher ranked. We played Washington when they were green (several new starters early in the yr) and it was an early start time for them but they are starting to come around.

We have not beaten a Top 50 program, you can aruge that X or St Joe or Washington squeezes in there, it of course depends upon what computer model or poll you look at, but we haven't really if you look at the consensus. And a lot of the teams you rank behind us have top 25 wins. Though I don't think I have seen your 1-25 ranking this week.

So W-L is good, bad SOS, no top 50 wins, mid major conference, a very bad loss @ RI (I accept ULM, U Mass as letdown games and Dayton as a tough road game).

The Coaches poll and USA do not even have any votes for us... so that means we're not in their top 35-40. Hey, coaches are pretty smart, they coach NCAA D-1 teams, some in the BCS, sure they have bias and manipulate things... but we did not even get a vote.

So yes I look at computer rankings, no I do not do RPI by hand, but any rational fan that knows their sh*t would realize that SLU is not 16th, never was 12th or 13th or whatever... but right now is about 35th, 30-40, give or take. Maybe we are better than that but have not had the chance to prove it yet. VCU, Butler.

So do not be offended, I think you are trying to do good.

But mathematical models with margin of victory allow for huge discrepancies, and it is cool that SLU is a beneficiary of it this yr with KenPom and Sagarin, some people talk about it, but it is not accurate at all to say we are 12th-16th whatever.

I go by how the NCAA looks at it when they select the teams... not margin of victory computer models. Predictive, I get it.

I hope we sweep and get there, to the Sweet 16, then we have earned what you say. But mathematical models that say we are 12th (KenPom) and 16th (Wiz) are not credible.

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Bishop and I were there. Sat at the bar slamming Wild Turkey. Would have bought you a congratulatory shot!

I was at the bar too. I would have had ten Wild Turkeys had I not left immediately after the game...I was that depressed.

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Wiz you've been a good sport I have been a little over the top, please realize some of it was kidding around.

However, I still maintain that we are not 16th and never 11th or whatever your top ranking was recently, no way.

Yes, I look at computer models, too, I consider RPI to have flaws but to be the most reliable.

Currently, they have us 34th and SOS of 106. If you look at other models, our SOS is in the same ballpark, > 100.

We are in a mid major conference, about the 7th strongest, maybe 8th, it depends.

So with # 16 you are theoretically saying of all the top 8 conferences, take the top 2 teams, we are better than the # 3 in Big 10, # 3 in the BE, etc. And you are saying, we are a # 4 seed. Hell, you even say we are better than Temple, and that they are, what? Top 30? KenPom has us 12 and Temple 34.

Playing in an easier conference allows for focus on important games, whereas if you are in the BE or Big 10, etc, you play a quality opponent almost every 4th day, there is little breathing room, and there is a higher % of potential letdowns than in an easy conference.

IMO the A-10 is "down" this yr. too. Temple and us, thats it. X is talented but thus far dysfunctional, the team is talented as hell, top 15 material, but clubhouse problems galore. I hope they screw up at least one more game, tomorrow night.

Our out of conference SOS is bad according to all sources, not our fault, we sure thought BC-Nova-OK would be higher ranked. We played Washington when they were green (several new starters early in the yr) and it was an early start time for them but they are starting to come around.

We have not beaten a Top 50 program, you can aruge that X or St Joe or Washington squeezes in there, it of course depends upon what computer model or poll you look at, but we haven't really if you look at the consensus. And a lot of the teams you rank behind us have top 25 wins. Though I don't think I have seen your 1-25 ranking this week.

So W-L is good, bad SOS, no top 50 wins, mid major conference, a very bad loss @ RI (I accept ULM, U Mass as letdown games and Dayton as a tough road game).

The Coaches poll and USA do not even have any votes for us... so that means we're not in their top 35-40. Hey, coaches are pretty smart, they coach NCAA D-1 teams, some in the BCS, sure they have bias and manipulate things... but we did not even get a vote.

So yes I look at computer rankings, no I do not do RPI by hand, but any rational fan that knows their sh*t would realize that SLU is not 16th, never was 12th or 13th or whatever... but right now is about 35th, 30-40, give or take. Maybe we are better than that but have not had the chance to prove it yet. VCU, Butler.

So do not be offended, I think you are trying to do good.

But mathematical models with margin of victory allow for huge discrepancies, and it is cool that SLU is a beneficiary of it this yr with KenPom and Sagarin, some people talk about it, but it is not accurate at all to say we are 12th-16th whatever.

I go by how the NCAA looks at it when they select the teams... not margin of victory computer models. Predictive, I get it.

I hope we sweep and get there, to the Sweet 16, then we have earned what you say. But mathematical models that say we are 12th (KenPom) and 16th (Wiz) are not credible.

I have no problem if you disagree with my methodology. I have come after you a few times on this board (in a fun way) not because you have disagreed with me but because you have been condescending and a name caller to various posters on the board. I am not OK with that. Just because you disagree does not give you the right to be rude.

As for attacking computer models in general....I think that is silly in light of the fact you use computer data to form your own opinions. If you don't believe we are 16th that is fine. We can agree to disagree. I like the model and I think it is fairly accurate (around 80%---higher as we get toward the end of the year.) Still when you get a 2 point spread you have a 47% chance of being wrong....which in a casino is great to have that edge ....on a message board not so good. Again the reason for the signature quote by Descartes.

As for the rankings...they take the emotion and bias out ...which can creep into the regular polls. In a perfect world these rankings might be more realistic. Like the point spreads they too can be predictive. I have had Mizzou around 8th for awhile. The polls have finally caught up. I have liked Wisc since near the beginning of the season. They are finally moving up the scale after few or no votes...same with Wich St. Memphis like SLU has yet to be discovered. But our time will come....think predictive. Hopefully with a strong finish we can get a decent seed and go deep into the tourney. Yes, a sweet 16 is possible.

Again, if you don't like the modeling that I do or KenPom or the Selection committee does, that is fine as long as you don't like it in a respectful way. These models are not perfect ...they are predictive and based on probability.

And if you show at the FH and I am there, I would be happy to buy you a beer.

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Wiz you've been a good sport I have been a little over the top, please realize some of it was kidding around.

However, I still maintain that we are not 16th and never 11th or whatever your top ranking was recently, no way.

Yes, I look at computer models, too, I consider RPI to have flaws but to be the most reliable.

Currently, they have us 34th and SOS of 106. If you look at other models, our SOS is in the same ballpark, > 100.

We are in a mid major conference, about the 7th strongest, maybe 8th, it depends.

So with # 16 you are theoretically saying of all the top 8 conferences, take the top 2 teams, we are better than the # 3 in Big 10, # 3 in the BE, etc. And you are saying, we are a # 4 seed. Hell, you even say we are better than Temple, and that they are, what? Top 30? KenPom has us 12 and Temple 34.

Playing in an easier conference allows for focus on important games, whereas if you are in the BE or Big 10, etc, you play a quality opponent almost every 4th day, there is little breathing room, and there is a higher % of potential letdowns than in an easy conference.

IMO the A-10 is "down" this yr. too. Temple and us, thats it. X is talented but thus far dysfunctional, the team is talented as hell, top 15 material, but clubhouse problems galore. I hope they screw up at least one more game, tomorrow night.

Our out of conference SOS is bad according to all sources, not our fault, we sure thought BC-Nova-OK would be higher ranked. We played Washington when they were green (several new starters early in the yr) and it was an early start time for them but they are starting to come around.

We have not beaten a Top 50 program, you can aruge that X or St Joe or Washington squeezes in there, it of course depends upon what computer model or poll you look at, but we haven't really if you look at the consensus. And a lot of the teams you rank behind us have top 25 wins. Though I don't think I have seen your 1-25 ranking this week.

So W-L is good, bad SOS, no top 50 wins, mid major conference, a very bad loss @ RI (I accept ULM, U Mass as letdown games and Dayton as a tough road game).

The Coaches poll and USA do not even have any votes for us... so that means we're not in their top 35-40. Hey, coaches are pretty smart, they coach NCAA D-1 teams, some in the BCS, sure they have bias and manipulate things... but we did not even get a vote.

So yes I look at computer rankings, no I do not do RPI by hand, but any rational fan that knows their sh*t would realize that SLU is not 16th, never was 12th or 13th or whatever... but right now is about 35th, 30-40, give or take. Maybe we are better than that but have not had the chance to prove it yet. VCU, Butler.

So do not be offended, I think you are trying to do good.

But mathematical models with margin of victory allow for huge discrepancies, and it is cool that SLU is a beneficiary of it this yr with KenPom and Sagarin, some people talk about it, but it is not accurate at all to say we are 12th-16th whatever.

I go by how the NCAA looks at it when they select the teams... not margin of victory computer models. Predictive, I get it.

I hope we sweep and get there, to the Sweet 16, then we have earned what you say. But mathematical models that say we are 12th (KenPom) and 16th (Wiz) are not credible.

MB, let me just commend you for a very well thought out and intelligent post. While I don't necessarily agree with everything you stated, you finally presented your opinions on this subject in a cohesive structure that allows us to see where you are coming from. I may not agree with it all, but I think you make some very fair points.

However, I don't think it is fair to say The Wiz has no credibility. Where I think we really differ is on viewpoint. I do not look at ratings like KenPom, Sagarin, The Wiz and BPI in the same way that I look at RPI or the weekly polls. I look at the computer models as a way of telling me if a team can matchup with another team. Basically, if KenPom shows SLU as 12th, per his computations, he is showing that he believes that SLU can hold their own with just about anyone, based on what they have shown this season. This basically holds true with the other models (BPI, Sagarin, Wiz.)

RPI and the polls, however, is more based on what you have 'earned', so to say. By now, we obviously know that RPI is based solely on wins and losses and SOS. And SOS is basically just your opponents' winning % along with their opponents' winning %. And road games are graded differently than home games. But the point is, RPI is really a measurement of what you have 'earned' to that point. Obviously, this also holds true with the polls, except on more of a subjective 'eye test' level, where recent wins and losses are the big barometer. And, if you have 'earned' your spot in these polls, you are given far more leniency when losing a game than if you are a newbie (as we personally experienced earlier this season.)

The fact is, MB, in this post and many others, I think you have actually lent some credence to these ratings systems. In many posts, you have stated that you think SLU can make a run to the Sweet 16 (or better), spank Mizzou in the tourney, etc. Those statements actually make The Wiz's point, in a way. His ratings (and the others) just state that SLU (or any other team rated high) has a very good chance to beat the teams that stand in their way to get far in the tournament. At least, that is the way I look at these metrics.

And maybe that is one way to look at it, MB. Just as one piece of data, among many, to utilize. Some data, like RPI, is very useful in getting us placed into the tournament. Other data, like the weekly polls, is important in raising our profile with media and fans. Finally, data like the mathematical models, is good when looking at how one team matches up with other teams, and the probability of winning a game. Personally, I like to mix it all into one nice little hodgepodge.

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