Bubble Watch

[WVBilliken]

We are fortunate that many of our remaining games are against teams with RPI's in the 50's and 60's. We also have our toughest games at home. Win and we are in.

[The Wiz]

Jon Wilner, Bay Area News Group/San Jose Mercury News college writer today actually described Washington's loss to "St. Louis" as one of its "bad losses," lumping SLU right in with South Dakota State and Colorado. Give me a break, and then give me another break. That shows you with what we are dealing. The Emperor has no clothes. I get so sick and tired of this Pac-12 rubbish. That league is pathetic. Cal and Washington lead. Unlike Wilner, I'm not going to return the diss against UW, but SLU wiped the floor with that UW team. Did that game even count? Cal is playing with a short bench and is very vulnerable outside the California Cuisine it dishes in Berkeley.

Yet in the ESPN article which started this thread they refer to UMass's win over St. Louis as a "truly quality win". And referring to New Mex they call their win over us, "NM's best win". New Mex has votes in the USA poll plus I have them as an A team and yet their "best win" is against us. Maybe ESPN is reading my stuff.

[The Dude]

SLU has an SOS of 110? Not good. I think they need to win the A10 tourney to get in the NCAA. Finishing in a crowd behind Temple for the league championship will get them nowhere - maybe not even in the NIT. Surely the non-conference success looks rather bland now. Going 7-2 down the stretch probably still leaves them behind Temple for the regular season. And 7-2 is a stetch goal with 4 games left on the road and Dayton and Xavier at home.

[jimmy two times]

'98. I remember that year fondly. I was at the game for #62 when my buddy Tim Forneris retrieved the ball.

One time at Humphries, I bought my buddy a beer and a shot in exchange for walking up to Forneris and saying in a cheesy voice - "Mr. McGwire...I think I have something that belongs to you..."

He took it well.

[MB73]

Yet in the ESPN article which started this thread they refer to UMass's win over St. Louis as a "truly quality win". And referring to New Mex they call their win over us, "NM's best win". New Mex has votes in the USA poll plus I have them as an A team and yet their "best win" is against us. Maybe ESPN is reading my stuff.

Is there a Wiz Top 25 this week?

Last week you had us 15th, I think, ahead of:

16. Gtown

17 Marq

18 Kan St

19 Fla St

20 Creighton

21 Cal

22. NM

23 Ala.

24 Tex

25 Mem

and Temple, U Conn, Michigan, Louisville, WV, Pitt, Illinois, VCU, Dayton, Cincy, BYU, SD St, Murray State, others.

We got no votes from AP or USA which adds 15 teams or so after top 25.

RPI is now 41, sos is 110.

I think we are on the 40 area, there are arguements that are valid that you can say 35 - 45.

[jbizzle09]

What I would like to ask from those out there is this...is there an A-10 team that you truly feel is better than SLU at this point? Sure, we have already lost 3 conference games, but when looking at the entirety of it all, is there really a team in this conference that you would rather take than SLU the majority of the time? The reason I ask is that if you take a look at every team's resume, you will find bigger black marks than what you see on SLU's. Case in point:

1. Temple: While they have the big signature win against Duke in Philly (current RPI 2), as well as nice wins against Wichita St on a neutral court and SLU on the road, they also have losses to Bowling Green (RPI 188) and Richmond (RPI 113). So, while they have the 3 top 50 wins, they also have 2 'bad' losses. Also, out of their 5 losses, 3 were by double digits, including a home loss.

2. Xavier: We all know about the suspensions after the Cincy game. However, even with Lyons and Tu, they lost to Hawaii (RPI 215). SLU beat them at Xavier. They also have 4 losses by double digits. They have 4 really tough road games coming up (Memphis, Temple, UMass, SLU.) They do have a really nice win at Vandy prior to the Cincy game. However, best win since after suspension ended is probably a home game against St. Joes.

3. UMass: Their SOS is pretty weak (119 vs. SLU's 96, per today's RealTimeRPI.com rankings). Their best win is the home win against SLU on Saturday. They have a pretty rough, 24-point loss on their record against Charleston (RPI 123). Their best road win is against Richmond (RPI 113.) They have two 20 point losses on their resume. They also still have road games against St. Joe, Dayton and Temple to come.

4. Dayton: They have some very nice wins on their resume (at Temple, Minnesota (neutral), Alabama, Ole Miss, SLU, X) but they also have 2 really unsightly losses at Miami-OH (RPI 257) and home against URI (RPI 263). They have a total of 4 double digit losses, including a 29 point loss at home against Buffalo. While they have 2 tough road games against SLU and X to come, perhaps scarier is a road game against Fordham. A loss there (RPI 211) might completely kill their chances.

5. La Salle: They have an extremely weak SOS right now (133 as of today.) Their best wins are home wins against X and UMass. However, they also have a really bad loss against Delaware (RPI 226.) They have 5 more road games left, including St. Joe and UMass, and currently their best road win is at Duquesne (RPI 99.)

6. St Joe: They have a very nice SOS (26) which is keeping their RPI nice (52) despite a 13-9 record, including 3-4 in conference. Another thing that helps them is a very nice win against Creighton at home (RPI 17.) However, they also have losses at Penn (RPI 101), at American U. (RPI 152) and vs. Charlotte (RPI 137.) They also have 2 double digit losses in their last 4 games and have lost 5 of their last 7 overall.

7. St. Bonnie: Their biggest win all season is a home win against Dayton. They are only 5-2 in conference at this point because they got Fordham, URI and Richmond back-to-back-to-back. They are 0-3 against BCS competition this season (Illinois, NC State, Va Tech.) Their best road win was at Buffalo (RPI 97.) They still have road games against SLU, UMass and La Salle.

In my opinion, and strictly my opinion, I am willing to take SLU's resume so far, and the games they have left, against any other team in the A-10. I truly think they are the class of the league right now and will be when it is all said and done.

[slu72]

I'd have to say Temple, but they are beatable. Their big guard play is very reminiscent of how Nova played so well in recent years. They do have some really talented athletes on that team and we didn't see 'em all since a couple were hurt when they beat us at the Fetz (which was my fault for showing up to that game), and Dunphy's a helluva coach.

[Cowboy]

-to answer jbizzle, temple if for no other reason they beat us at our place

[JettFlight5]

Temple has a slightly better resume with the win here and the win over Duke. They do have one more "bad" loss than we do, but they make up for it with Duke and the game here. With Dayton, every time a writer brings up the Flyers, Buffalo is the first thing mentioned. If Temple lost at Richmond, that game nearly gets forgiven by the committee (road losses in conference by teams with repuation have a way of being forgotten).

[The Wiz]

I truly think they are the class of the league right now and will be when it is all said and done.

+1

A big win last night for New Mex against Air Force. This win not only helps NM but us too. While AF is only a C team, New Mex did beat them (crush them by nearly 40 points) at their place. Because we played New Mex close it helps our numbers. New Mex and the Bills are very close in my standings. Both are A teams. To answer MB...the Bills are 16th and New Mex 17th. For the doubters try to look at my rankings like my game spreads....they are predictive. Even MB has dropped his numbers down to 35-40.. Seems like he is moving closer to me. .....Predictive.

[MB73]

It's all up in the air.

Clearly right now Temple is ahead of us on paper and they beat us in our gym, but they can be overtaken if we play well and they do not.

Same with Dayton, U Mass St. Joe, and Xavier, it remains to be seen, it depends upon the last 9 games.

We are 4-3, tied for 5th in a close race, we beat Charlotte by 1 point, saying we are the class of the league is very, very optimistic.

Again, they gotta win the games. 8-1, minimum 7-2.

TBD.

(Wiz: 16? After key win at X we are about 40th and if we get very hot we can get to 30... maybe better... or if we slip we can wind up at 60)

[The Wiz]

.... and if we get very hot we can get to 30... maybe better...

Wow....keep coming ...you are almost there........predictive

[jbizzle09]

Temple has a slightly better resume with the win here and the win over Duke. They do have one more "bad" loss than we do, but they make up for it with Duke and the game here. With Dayton, every time a writer brings up the Flyers, Buffalo is the first thing mentioned. If Temple lost at Richmond, that game nearly gets forgiven by the committee (road losses in conference by teams with repuation have a way of being forgotten).

I still have confidence that LMU will not be a 'bad' loss when it is all said and done. In fact, I think by the end of the week LMU might get into the 90s RPI-wise, as they have 2 rather easy games against Pepperdine and USF. Both should be wins for them.

[MB73]

Wow....keep coming ...you are almost there........predictive

Yeah, if we go 8-1. Or possbily 7-2 if we beat the right teams, etc. But we haven't done it yet so we are at 40+, not 16.

[MB73]

Historically the NCAA looks at quality (Top 25 - 50) wins and good wins (Top 50) on the road as more important and they weigh them more heavily than the offset of a bad loss. Good teams have funky letdowns, they know that.

So the LMU thing is not so bad even if LMU does not improve its RPI.

[Cowboy]

So the LMU thing is not so bad even if LMU does not improve its RPI.

-i agree with this

[BACKHANDtheRICAN]

One time at Humphries, I bought my buddy a beer and a shot in exchange for walking up to Forneris and saying in a cheesy voice - "Mr. McGwire...I think I have something that belongs to you..."

He took it well.

Good thing you hid behind your buddy who did the dirty work for you. Forneris would have pounded you.

[BigBills]

The toughest games (@Dayton, Temple, @Xavier, @UMass) are behind SLU. Not that most of these remaining games will be easy by any means, but I still say SLU shoots for 9-0. It can be done.

7-2 to finish 23-7 (22-7 vs. D-1) is just not safe, even if it should be. I don't trust the NCAA when it comes to finding space for pretenders from the Pac-12 and now Notre Dame.

Jon Wilner, Bay Area News Group/San Jose Mercury News college writer today actually described Washington's loss to "St. Louis" as one of its "bad losses," lumping SLU right in with South Dakota State and Colorado. Give me a break, and then give me another break. That shows you with what we are dealing. The Emperor has no clothes. I get so sick and tired of this Pac-12 rubbish. That league is pathetic. Cal and Washington lead. Unlike Wilner, I'm not going to return the diss against UW, but SLU wiped the floor with that UW team. Did that game even count? Cal is playing with a short bench and is very vulnerable outside the California Cuisine it dishes in Berkeley.

+1, I never trust the NCAA to get the right bubble teams in - they always have to leave a deserving team out and stick some stupid major conference team in that loses in the first round. And the Pac-12 is SO overrated and that's with not even being rated that high this year.