WH's preview

[SShoe]

WH, the A-10's most knowledgeable and reasonable fan, has come out with his annual preview of teams, so I thought I'd share what he said about our boys this year to try and get some discussion going.

Thinking about … ST. LOUIS

Brad Soderberg was the worst recruiter I can remember in 25 years of watching the A-10. I am not sure Rick Majerus knew exactly how big the (re)building job would be when he took over. I am even more amazed he managed to squeeze out winning records in two straight years relying primarily on players Soderberg left him. Kevin Lisch and Tommie Liddell were the only legit A-10 caliber talents recruited by the former Bills coach.

Granted, the Bills’ 18-14 record last season was built largely at the expense of mediocre opponents, especially in the noncon sked. And good old home cooking accounted for 14 of those 18 wins (14-3 at home). It’s impressive nonetheless. Most coaches would have done worse – some far worse - with the players Majerus had at his disposal.

This year Majerus will be relying entirely on players he recruited. Fortunately he’s done a good job of replenishing the roster. Problem is, his team will be among the youngest in the country, with not a single upperclassman on the roster (junior Paul Eckerle tore an ACL and will miss the season). Nor is there very much depth. It’s going to be a huge challenge for Majerus to maintain his record of never having a losing season.

St. Louis does have several key building blocks already in place. Sophomore point guard Kwamain Mitchell showed special talent as a freshman, leading the team in scoring in the month of February. Mitchell is an excellent ballhandler, penetrates and passes well and shot a respectable 36% on treys. Just as important, he showed leadership as the season wore on.

Sophomore center Willie Reed was the second best freshman bigman after St. Bonaventure’s Andrew Nicholson. He’s an explosive athlete who can alter the game at both ends of the floor with his shotblocking and opportunistic offense. He can even hit a midrange jumper if left alone, though eventually he’ll need a post game. He was hindered as a freshman by his thin frame and needs to continue to get stronger. Make no mistake, though. He’s likely a future All-Conference player.

The lineup gets murky after those two. Sophomore forward Brian Conklin is a classic lunchpail guy who rebounds, defends and gets a lot of garbage points. He’s not a great athlete and is undersized, but he’s smart and will run through a wall for his teammates.

Sophomore swingman Kyle Cassity showed good passing ability and decision making – except when it came to offense. He was very tentative and rarely shot the ball. Majerus needs to get much more out of him in his second year.

Majerus has brought in six freshmen – seven if Australian Cody Ellis satisfies Clearinghouse concerns – so he’s got a lot of teaching to do again. His job will be a lot harder if Ellis can’t play. The 6-8 240-pound forward is one of the best high school players in Australia and would have made an immediate impact with his inside-out game and rebounding ability. Minus Ellis the Rams will be small upfront with only one player, Reed, above 6-8 and only one player, Conklin, above 220 pounds.

Beyond Ellis it’s impossible to say which of the newcomers will stand out. Yet Majerus seems to have put together good back-to-back classes that have given the Bills a serious jolt of athleticism and raw skill. In time he will mold the young Bills into a good team. It just won’t be this season. St. Louis is at least a year away from seriously contending for an A-10 title.

That’s not to say the Bills won’t be competitive and I am not about to bet on Majerus having a losing season. The noncon schedule is soft again and Majerus knows as well as any coach how to maximize his team’s strengths and minimize its weaknesses.

Expect the Bills to play tight defense, limit turnovers, rebound and try to control the tempo. Although the Bills were only a middle-of-the-pack team in the A-10 in field goal percentage defense, they gave up the fewest points in the league. Majerus especially hates to give up open 3’s and would rather force teams to try to score inside, where Reed will be waiting. Since players increasingly lack interior games, that’s probably a wise course. The Bills only allowed opponents to shoot 28.2% behind the arc, easily the best perimeter defense in the A-10 and third best in the entire NCAA.

Put another way, the Bills are a pain in the butt to play, especially in their arena. They test your patience again and again, and if they get a lead, opponents often self destruct in an effort to catch up. The ghost of John Chaney lives!

Three years into the Rick Majerus experiment I see clear progress and glimpses of a very bright future, but I not yet convinced he is still the same old Rick who almost won a national title with Utah. We’ll have a better idea by March or February after we see how good the freshman are and how much progress they’ve made.

[kshoe]

WH, the A-10's most knowledgeable and reasonable fan, has come out with his annual preview of teams, so I thought I'd share what he said about our boys this year to try and get some discussion going.

Thinking about … ST. LOUIS

Brad Soderberg was the worst recruiter I can remember in 25 years of watching the A-10. I am not sure Rick Majerus knew exactly how big the (re)building job would be when he took over. I am even more amazed he managed to squeeze out winning records in two straight years relying primarily on players Soderberg left him. Kevin Lisch and Tommie Liddell were the only legit A-10 caliber talents recruited by the former Bills coach.

Granted, the Bills’ 18-14 record last season was built largely at the expense of mediocre opponents, especially in the noncon sked. And good old home cooking accounted for 14 of those 18 wins (14-3 at home). It’s impressive nonetheless. Most coaches would have done worse – some far worse - with the players Majerus had at his disposal.

This year Majerus will be relying entirely on players he recruited. Fortunately he’s done a good job of replenishing the roster. Problem is, his team will be among the youngest in the country, with not a single upperclassman on the roster (junior Paul Eckerle tore an ACL and will miss the season). Nor is there very much depth. It’s going to be a huge challenge for Majerus to maintain his record of never having a losing season.

St. Louis does have several key building blocks already in place. Sophomore point guard Kwamain Mitchell showed special talent as a freshman, leading the team in scoring in the month of February. Mitchell is an excellent ballhandler, penetrates and passes well and shot a respectable 36% on treys. Just as important, he showed leadership as the season wore on.

Sophomore center Willie Reed was the second best freshman bigman after St. Bonaventure’s Andrew Nicholson. He’s an explosive athlete who can alter the game at both ends of the floor with his shotblocking and opportunistic offense. He can even hit a midrange jumper if left alone, though eventually he’ll need a post game. He was hindered as a freshman by his thin frame and needs to continue to get stronger. Make no mistake, though. He’s likely a future All-Conference player.

The lineup gets murky after those two. Sophomore forward Brian Conklin is a classic lunchpail guy who rebounds, defends and gets a lot of garbage points. He’s not a great athlete and is undersized, but he’s smart and will run through a wall for his teammates.

Sophomore swingman Kyle Cassity showed good passing ability and decision making – except when it came to offense. He was very tentative and rarely shot the ball. Majerus needs to get much more out of him in his second year.

Majerus has brought in six freshmen – seven if Australian Cody Ellis satisfies Clearinghouse concerns – so he’s got a lot of teaching to do again. His job will be a lot harder if Ellis can’t play. The 6-8 240-pound forward is one of the best high school players in Australia and would have made an immediate impact with his inside-out game and rebounding ability. Minus Ellis the Rams will be small upfront with only one player, Reed, above 6-8 and only one player, Conklin, above 220 pounds.

Beyond Ellis it’s impossible to say which of the newcomers will stand out. Yet Majerus seems to have put together good back-to-back classes that have given the Bills a serious jolt of athleticism and raw skill. In time he will mold the young Bills into a good team. It just won’t be this season. St. Louis is at least a year away from seriously contending for an A-10 title.

That’s not to say the Bills won’t be competitive and I am not about to bet on Majerus having a losing season. The noncon schedule is soft again and Majerus knows as well as any coach how to maximize his team’s strengths and minimize its weaknesses.

Expect the Bills to play tight defense, limit turnovers, rebound and try to control the tempo. Although the Bills were only a middle-of-the-pack team in the A-10 in field goal percentage defense, they gave up the fewest points in the league. Majerus especially hates to give up open 3’s and would rather force teams to try to score inside, where Reed will be waiting. Since players increasingly lack interior games, that’s probably a wise course. The Bills only allowed opponents to shoot 28.2% behind the arc, easily the best perimeter defense in the A-10 and third best in the entire NCAA.

Put another way, the Bills are a pain in the butt to play, especially in their arena. They test your patience again and again, and if they get a lead, opponents often self destruct in an effort to catch up. The ghost of John Chaney lives!

Three years into the Rick Majerus experiment I see clear progress and glimpses of a very bright future, but I not yet convinced he is still the same old Rick who almost won a national title with Utah. We’ll have a better idea by March or February after we see how good the freshman are and how much progress they’ve made.

WH never ceases to amaze me with his knowledge of all things A-10. I'm surprised none of the magazines have ever offered him a job for his insight.

Only thing I saw wrong with his review was he called us the Rams at some point. He was probably thinking of RI, but hopefully he wasn't thinking we'd be on the same par with our football team.

[brianstl]

WH never ceases to amaze me with his knowledge of all things A-10. I'm surprised none of the magazines have ever offered him a job for his insight.

Only thing I saw wrong with his review was he called us the Rams at some point. He was probably thinking of RI, but hopefully he wasn't thinking we'd be on the same par with our football team.

I thought I heard he was a newspaper writer for a while. He produces outstanding previews every year.

[Billikan]

I thought I heard he was a newspaper writer for a while. He produces outstanding previews every year.

I have never seen a writer who seemed to be more plugged in to the details of the teams he covers. He is outstanding from what I have seen over the past few years. I hate to see the bashing of Brad but the difference is that Rick and staff are much superior closers and they get the players signed!

[SShoe]

I have never seen a writer who seemed to be more plugged in to the details of the teams he covers. He is outstanding from what I have seen over the past few years. I hate to see the bashing of Brad but the difference is that Rick and staff are much superior closers and they get the players signed!

While I also don't particularly like the way he bashes Brad, it gives the average A-10 fan/non-SLU fan a good reason or summary as to why we're in the current predicament that we're in now.

In one of his other previews, I like that he mentions SLU as a team that could surprise. Most would see the lack of upperclassmen and dismiss us (see our preseason ranking), but he insists we may be better than meets the eye (as long as Cody clears). It's just nice to receive some justification from an outside source, because lets face it, we're kind of biased.

[TheA_Bomb]

That guy is good. This is just another "wait till next year" year. I'm getting so tired of those. 2000 was a shock we didn't expect. When is the last time we had a team we expected to do well and they did? 1998? I would be happy with another surprise. Like Tom Petty says, "the waiting is the hardest part."

When is our year? Next year or the year after? 64 teams make the tournament I just want to be one of those.

[Bill_Ken R]

Next year. Having the horses is the difference. Compare our players now to three years ago. We are far more talented and athletic, although inexperienced, then we have been in a long time. Finally D1 talent. Good recruiting, in successive years eventually results in a winning team. We are heading in the right direction.

[kshoe]

That guy is good. This is just another "wait till next year" year. I'm getting so tired of those. 2000 was a shock we didn't expect. When is the last time we had a team we expected to do well and they did? 1998? I would be happy with another surprise. Like Tom Petty says, "the waiting is the hardest part."

When is our year? Next year or the year after? 64 teams make the tournament I just want to be one of those.

1995 is the last time.

Few expected us to do well in 98 because we were coming off a rough 97 season and while we knew the freshmen would be good, few thought they'd be that good.

There have been plenty of seasons that we thought we'd be very good and turned out to not be so...

[slu72]

Next year. Having the horses is the difference. Compare our players now to three years ago. We are far more talented and athletic, although inexperienced, then we have been in a long time. Finally D1 talent. Good recruiting, in successive years eventually results in a winning team. We are heading in the right direction.

Hard to argue with WH about his analysis. I'm hoping, make that praying, maybe we'll be this year's Butler. And speaking of Cody Ellis, does anyone else think deciding on one course should be taking this long? We should have offered Cody an academic scholie and brought him as a walkon. This delay is totally insane and unfair to the student/athlete.

[ACE]

That was an outstanding preview. His analysis of the returning players is right on. I would have liked to have read a little more about the newcomers, but I suppose he is correct in saying that it really is a guessing game on how much they will contribute.

[billiken_roy]

Hard to argue with WH about his analysis. I'm hoping, make that praying, maybe we'll be this year's Butler. And speaking of Cody Ellis, does anyone else think deciding on one course should be taking this long? We should have offered Cody an academic scholie and brought him as a walkon. This delay is totally insane and unfair to the student/athlete.

slu72, if he had the credentials to be here on an academic scholarship, he wouldnt still be in process by the ncaa.

[ACE]

With the time it has been taking with Ellis, couldn't he be taking a course in Australia right now that would be acceptable by the NCAA? It is just one course that is in dispute, correct?

[bhayes520]

slu72, if he had the credentials to be here on an academic scholarship, he wouldnt still be in process by the ncaa.

You don't know if that is true at all. You don't have any knowledge of his grades, the courses he took, what class is being questioned by the NCAA or why. For all you know he could be a 3.5 GPA student that took a course pass/fail for some reason and they are looking at that one course. One course wouldn't change the fact that he's a 3.5 student, would it?

[billiken_roy]

You don't know if that is true at all. You don't have any knowledge of his grades, the courses he took, what class is being questioned by the NCAA or why. For all you know he could be a 3.5 GPA student that took a course pass/fail for some reason and they are looking at that one course. One course wouldn't change the fact that he's a 3.5 student, would it?

how many of the slu academic presidential scholarship winnners (those that get full academic rides to slu) do you think have exactly the minimum number of classes to be eligible to just get admitted to saint louis university? i would be willing to bet few if any. most of the high academic achievers at the high school level have more credits than needed and in fact enter college with upwards of double digit college credit courses in their pocket already.

btw, my daughter was one notch below a slu presidential scholarship winner that interviewed for the prize and i attended the weekend that the final interviews were held, so i think i know a little bit about what i am talking about on this one. my daughter had a 5.0 on a 4.0 scale, and had over 24 college credits when she started school this fall. she didnt get the presidential scholarship and instead was only offered an approximate 2/3 scholarship to attend saint louis university.

i stand by my original statement. if ellis had the academic credentials that was an easy fix. if slu missed that opportunity then we need new compliance folks at slu. my guess is our slu compliance folks are very good at their jobs.

[bhayes520]

how many of the slu academic presidential scholarship winnners (those that get full academic rides to slu) do you think have exactly the minimum number of classes to be eligible to just get admitted to saint louis university? i would be willing to bet few if any. most of the high academic achievers at the high school level have more credits than needed and in fact enter college with upwards of double digit college credit courses in their pocket already.

btw, my daughter was one notch below a slu presidential scholarship winner that interviewed for the prize and i attended the weekend that the final interviews were held, so i think i know a little bit about what i am talking about on this one. my daughter had a 5.0 on a 4.0 scale, and had over 24 college credits when she started school this fall. she didnt get the presidential scholarship and instead was only offered an approximate 2/3 scholarship to attend saint louis university.

i stand by my original statement. if ellis had the academic credentials that was an easy fix. if slu missed that opportunity then we need new compliance folks at slu. my guess is our slu compliance folks are very good at their jobs.

I guess I didn't read the previous comment thinking we should give him a FULL academic scholarship. I'll definitely agree with you that Cody likely doesn't have the credentials to be given a Presidential Scholarship. Either way, I think it is a moot point anyway because I think you still would have to be cleared by the NCAA whether you were playing with an academic scholarship or athletic scholarship. If there was an easy fix to this situation he'd already be here.

[billiken_roy]

I guess I didn't read the previous comment thinking we should give him a FULL academic scholarship. I'll definitely agree with you that Cody likely doesn't have the credentials to be given a Presidential Scholarship. Either way, I think it is a moot point anyway because I think you still would have to be cleared by the NCAA whether you were playing with an academic scholarship or athletic scholarship. If there was an easy fix to this situation he'd already be here.

if you cant give a full ride, you have to collect or make arrangements via loans or grants to cover the rest or else risk ncaa inquiries.

and i agree he would have to be cleared either way. that was my point. if he was an academic stalwart, i doubt there would be a holdup. this must be a borderline scenario imo that requires a decision not a rubber stamp.

[slulaw09]

quote of the year:

Brad Soderberg was the worst recruiter I can remember in 25 years of watching the A-10.

thank you, Doug Wollard. Thank you.