UMass and Dayton

[kshoe]

So everyone expects the A-10 to get 3-4 at large teams for the dance. Xavier is a lock. Rhode Island looks to be in great shape sitting at 20-4 and 6-3 in conference. But I think you've really got to worry about whether UMass and Dayton have the resumes to get in.

Dayton - They are 16th in the RPI but are 4-5 in the A-10. I just don't see how any A-10 team can finish below .500 in conference and expect an at large. I know about the injuries and when you look at their last 7 games I would hope they could win 5 or 6 games but given that they can't win at GW nothing is a lock. Does 8-8 in the A-10 get them in?

UMass - They are 26th in the RPI but are also 4-5 in the conference. Yes, they have wins over BC and Syracuse non-conference but they don't have near Dayton's non-conference resume and have questionable losses to Northern Iowa and IUPUI. Again I can see them winning 5 or 6 of the final 7 but I don't think they will get in with just 8-8.

Conferences aren't given X number of bids like some want to believe. The teams have to earn them and right now two of our guys are blowing it. We should all hope that UMass and Dayton turn it on these next few weeks...

[MusicCityBilliken]

So everyone expects the A-10 to get 3-4 at large teams for the dance. Xavier is a lock. Rhode Island looks to be in great shape sitting at 20-4 and 6-3 in conference. But I think you've really got to worry about whether UMass and Dayton have the resumes to get in.

Dayton - They are 16th in the RPI but are 4-5 in the A-10. I just don't see how any A-10 team can finish below .500 in conference and expect an at large. I know about the injuries and when you look at their last 7 games I would hope they could win 5 or 6 games but given that they can't win at GW nothing is a lock. Does 8-8 in the A-10 get them in?

UMass - They are 26th in the RPI but are also 4-5 in the conference. Yes, they have wins over BC and Syracuse non-conference but they don't have near Dayton's non-conference resume and have questionable losses to Northern Iowa and IUPUI. Again I can see them winning 5 or 6 of the final 7 but I don't think they will get in with just 8-8.

Conferences aren't given X number of bids like some want to believe. The teams have to earn them and right now two of our guys are blowing it. We should all hope that UMass and Dayton turn it on these next few weeks...

Except when UMASS plays the Bills on the 17th.

[SShoe]

First off, do not forget about St. Joes. If they can push their RPI upwards (it's was 43 as of Sat.) and continue to play well in the A-10, they'll be a team to consider. As far as Dayton is concerned, I think as long as they finish over .500 in conference, they'll be okay. The commitee should take into account the injuries that they've had. Once Wright and Little went out, they became a significantly weaker team. If they can play well once Wright comes back, I think that'll be enough. 4 teams, no more, no less.

[NashvilleBilliken]

So everyone expects the A-10 to get 3-4 at large teams for the dance. Xavier is a lock. Rhode Island looks to be in great shape sitting at 20-4 and 6-3 in conference. But I think you've really got to worry about whether UMass and Dayton have the resumes to get in.

Dayton - They are 16th in the RPI but are 4-5 in the A-10. I just don't see how any A-10 team can finish below .500 in conference and expect an at large. I know about the injuries and when you look at their last 7 games I would hope they could win 5 or 6 games but given that they can't win at GW nothing is a lock. Does 8-8 in the A-10 get them in?

UMass - They are 26th in the RPI but are also 4-5 in the conference. Yes, they have wins over BC and Syracuse non-conference but they don't have near Dayton's non-conference resume and have questionable losses to Northern Iowa and IUPUI. Again I can see them winning 5 or 6 of the final 7 but I don't think they will get in with just 8-8.

Conferences aren't given X number of bids like some want to believe. The teams have to earn them and right now two of our guys are blowing it. We should all hope that UMass and Dayton turn it on these next few weeks...

No team, regardless of the conference, deserves to get into the dance (at large) with a sub .500 league record, imo. UMASS and Dayton need to step it up and start winning games. I don't think either team can really afford a loss at this point.

[kshoe]

First off, do not forget about St. Joes. If they can push their RPI upwards (it's was 43 as of Sat.) and continue to play well in the A-10, they'll be a team to consider. As far as Dayton is concerned, I think as long as they finish over .500 in conference, they'll be okay. The commitee should take into account the injuries that they've had. Once Wright and Little went out, they became a significantly weaker team. If they can play well once Wright comes back, I think that'll be enough. 4 teams, no more, no less.

Well, its almost certainly going to be less unless both Dayton and UMass win 5 of their next 7 games. Dayton doesn't seem capable of doing that the way they've played over the last 7 games.

I would have agreed with you on St. Joes a week ago but then they went and lost to Duquense and today had a 4 point lead late @ Xavier but blew it. They woud probbaly need to win 6 of the final 7 to have a realistic chance.

[drkelsey55]

If Charlotte or St louis(just dreaming) should happen to take the A10 tourney who do we knock out?

[kwyjibo]

If Charlotte or St louis(just dreaming) should happen to take the A10 tourney who do we knock out?

Only the (hypothetical) team we are playing for the championship obviously.

[Taj79]

Xavier will be in --- whether they win in AC or not. That's about the only lock I will give to this conference in the right here and now. That's it. Things change. A few weeks ago, we had three ranked teams in Dayton, Rhode Island and Xavier and Xavier was the low man on the three man totem pole. Not now. Dayton saw exactly what happens when you have a two-man team and one of those guys goes down. That was Wright. Little was a nice comlimentary piece but only if Wright and Roberts were playing. He hasn't been that much of a load over the time he didn't have Wright so what makes one think he'll all of a sudden rise to a position of prominence? That is usually the case with mid-major teams --- you might have a nice five man rotation but blow one of those tires and the replacement is horrible. Or it affects the rotation, making your sixth man less because now he's a starter. Same thing as assumptions that Bryce will step up for Ian who will step up for whomever and so on.

As for the rest, I think Rhodey and St. Joe's are onthe bubble right now. Go deep intothe AC tournament, and you have a better than average shot. Go one and out and say hello to the NIT. The Big East and the ACC will leap like vultures on a next-tier conference having their so called power teams flame out. Look at UMass last year. Right now, the only way UMass, Charlotte or Dayton (or anyone else for that matter in this league) go anywhere its due to winning the title.

There are a number of factors that go into a selection and I recall one ofthose being "last ten." How you are doing in the last ten games matters. So, if a Dayton or a UMass beats a Louisville or a Pitt or a Syracuse early, its about as ancient history as last year. Dayton continues to plug along like us -- win one lose one win one lose one -- and only wins at home and then takes one game in AC, sorry, i don't see it. All the fans can scream and yell but I guarantee you that if BC jumps up and wins the ACC in Carolina that will add to the ACC's haul and impact on a conference like ours, not theirs. Instead of six locks, the ACC will get seven --- the six locks plus the upset winner.

The A10 is a two, maybe three bid league and will remain a two bid league if Xaviers wins out. A final of Xavier against Rhodey or St. Joes will get both teams in. A final of Rhodey agaisnt St. Joe's will get all three in. You cna change out Rhodey and St. Joes if you want but that's what I see. Whoever knocks one of those three out of the final two will get the third bid.

[slufanskip]

Xavier will be in --- whether they win in AC or not. That's about the only lock I will give to this conference in the right here and now. That's it. Things change. A few weeks ago, we had three ranked teams in Dayton, Rhode Island and Xavier and Xavier was the low man on the three man totem pole. Not now. Dayton saw exactly what happens when you have a two-man team and one of those guys goes down. That was Wright. Little was a nice comlimentary piece but only if Wright and Roberts were playing. He hasn't been that much of a load over the time he didn't have Wright so what makes one think he'll all of a sudden rise to a position of prominence? That is usually the case with mid-major teams --- you might have a nice five man rotation but blow one of those tires and the replacement is horrible. Or it affects the rotation, making your sixth man less because now he's a starter. Same thing as assumptions that Bryce will step up for Ian who will step up for whomever and so on.

As for the rest, I think Rhodey and St. Joe's are onthe bubble right now. Go deep intothe AC tournament, and you have a better than average shot. Go one and out and say hello to the NIT. The Big East and the ACC will leap like vultures on a next-tier conference having their so called power teams flame out. Look at UMass last year. Right now, the only way UMass, Charlotte or Dayton (or anyone else for that matter in this league) go anywhere its due to winning the title.

There are a number of factors that go into a selection and I recall one ofthose being "last ten." How you are doing in the last ten games matters. So, if a Dayton or a UMass beats a Louisville or a Pitt or a Syracuse early, its about as ancient history as last year. Dayton continues to plug along like us -- win one lose one win one lose one -- and only wins at home and then takes one game in AC, sorry, i don't see it. All the fans can scream and yell but I guarantee you that if BC jumps up and wins the ACC in Carolina that will add to the ACC's haul and impact on a conference like ours, not theirs. Instead of six locks, the ACC will get seven --- the six locks plus the upset winner.

The A10 is a two, maybe three bid league and will remain a two bid league if Xaviers wins out. A final of Xavier against Rhodey or St. Joes will get both teams in. A final of Rhodey agaisnt St. Joe's will get all three in. You cna change out Rhodey and St. Joes if you want but that's what I see. Whoever knocks one of those three out of the final two will get the third bid.

I think we are going undefeated the rest of the way and we are in.

[SShoe]

I don't particularly like to use ESPN as a reference, but they still have the A-10 at a likely 4 seed, despite Dayton and UMass' woes.

http://sports.espn.go.com/ncb/bubblewatch?id=67

[NashvilleBilliken]

I think we are going undefeated the rest of the way and we are in.

Do you think we have a chance if we win out and lose the final game? That's 20-10 regular season...first round bye...then two more wins before losing. That's a 22-11 record which, in and of itself, is not worthy. But, starting with UMASS, we would have won 11 of our last 13 with losses presumably coming both times to Xavier. Any chance?

Obviously the above is a pipe dream, but humor me...

[kwyjibo]

Xavier will be in --- whether they win in AC or not. That's about the only lock I will give to this conference in the right here and now. That's it. Things change. A few weeks ago, we had three ranked teams in Dayton, Rhode Island and Xavier and Xavier was the low man on the three man totem pole. Not now. Dayton saw exactly what happens when you have a two-man team and one of those guys goes down. That was Wright. Little was a nice comlimentary piece but only if Wright and Roberts were playing. He hasn't been that much of a load over the time he didn't have Wright so what makes one think he'll all of a sudden rise to a position of prominence? That is usually the case with mid-major teams --- you might have a nice five man rotation but blow one of those tires and the replacement is horrible. Or it affects the rotation, making your sixth man less because now he's a starter. Same thing as assumptions that Bryce will step up for Ian who will step up for whomever and so on.

As for the rest, I think Rhodey and St. Joe's are onthe bubble right now. Go deep intothe AC tournament, and you have a better than average shot. Go one and out and say hello to the NIT. The Big East and the ACC will leap like vultures on a next-tier conference having their so called power teams flame out. Look at UMass last year. Right now, the only way UMass, Charlotte or Dayton (or anyone else for that matter in this league) go anywhere its due to winning the title.

There are a number of factors that go into a selection and I recall one ofthose being "last ten." How you are doing in the last ten games matters. So, if a Dayton or a UMass beats a Louisville or a Pitt or a Syracuse early, its about as ancient history as last year. Dayton continues to plug along like us -- win one lose one win one lose one -- and only wins at home and then takes one game in AC, sorry, i don't see it. All the fans can scream and yell but I guarantee you that if BC jumps up and wins the ACC in Carolina that will add to the ACC's haul and impact on a conference like ours, not theirs. Instead of six locks, the ACC will get seven --- the six locks plus the upset winner.

The A10 is a two, maybe three bid league and will remain a two bid league if Xaviers wins out. A final of Xavier against Rhodey or St. Joes will get both teams in. A final of Rhodey agaisnt St. Joe's will get all three in. You cna change out Rhodey and St. Joes if you want but that's what I see. Whoever knocks one of those three out of the final two will get the third bid.

Sorry, Taj I could not let this go it is so riddled with misunderstanding of the selection process. Each team is evaluated individually under a number of different criteria. There is no set of criteria that could produce only one lock in the A-10 and six in the ACC. It could easily be argued for example that Rhode Island has a better profile right now than Maryland (which is by my calculation the 3rd or 4th best ACC team).

You are correct that last ten games is a criteria for selection. Conference tournament games are important because they are in the last 10 but there is no evidence of them having significance any more than that.

Teams get bids not conferences. So any upset winner of ANY conference tournament means that the last team on the bubble gets left out (regardless of conference).

The A-10 will get as many bids as there are top teams that separate themselves. It's that simple. Anything from 1-6 bids is possible but the most likely scenarios lead to 3 or 4 bids for teams in the conference. Anyway, things will change.

[billiken_roy]

i think what is being missed in the thought process with the a-10 and the ncaa tourney is the unlikelihood that umass and dayton will maintain their rpi standings if they keep losing. i would think that if umass or dayton end up with sub 500 records and fall out of contention for top 4 in the conference they also will no longer have 20 or better rpi ratings. i dont profess to be an rpi expert, but that seems far fetched to be otherwise.

conversely, if rhode island and st joes maintain their top 3 positions, i would bet their rpi ratings will rise to an advantageous rpi rating as well.

i.e. the only way the a-10 is going to end up with a 2 or less at large bid result is if all of umass, rhodey, st joes and umass fall on their faces and we see a final standings where the top five doesnt include any of them. i just dont think that will happen. i havent looked at the schedules of all the teams, lately, but one would think it is almost impossible actually.

i am still of the belief the least we get is 3 bids (including the automatic) and the most we will get is 5 bids

[kshoe]

i think what is being missed in the thought process with the a-10 and the ncaa tourney is the unlikelihood that umass and dayton will maintain their rpi standings if they keep losing. i would think that if umass or dayton end up with sub 500 records and fall out of contention for top 4 in the conference they also will no longer have 20 or better rpi ratings. i dont profess to be an rpi expert, but that seems far fetched to be otherwise.

conversely, if rhode island and st joes maintain their top 3 positions, i would bet their rpi ratings will rise to an advantageous rpi rating as well.

i.e. the only way the a-10 is going to end up with a 2 or less at large bid result is if all of umass, rhodey, st joes and umass fall on their faces and we see a final standings where the top five doesnt include any of them. i just dont think that will happen. i havent looked at the schedules of all the teams, lately, but one would think it is almost impossible actually.

i am still of the belief the least we get is 3 bids (including the automatic) and the most we will get is 5 bids

Roy, I have been very surprised at how well Dayton and UMass's RPIs have held up given their 4-5 start to conference play. Dayton has lost 5 of their last 7 games and they've moved from about 10th to 16th. UMass' moves have been similar. If Dayton were to go 3-4 to end the regular season I suspect their RPI would be in the mid 20s but I don't think there is any way they get an at-large with a 7-9 A-10 record, injuries or no injuries.

St. joes finishing 3rd with a 12-4 conference record is way different then St. joes finishing 3rd at 10-6. The first gets them right on the bubble while the latter most certainly doesn't.

[kwyjibo]

Do you think we have a chance if we win out and lose the final game? That's 20-10 regular season...first round bye...then two more wins before losing. That's a 22-11 record which, in and of itself, is not worthy. But, starting with UMASS, we would have won 11 of our last 13 with losses presumably coming both times to Xavier. Any chance?

Obviously the above is a pipe dream, but humor me...

If the unlikely scenario plays out SLU would have a good profile of top 50 wins and also a good last 10 record (9-1) the problem is that the RPI would still be in the 50's. That would not rule SLU out it just makes SLU's selection subject to the whims of the committee and the upsets in conference tournaments. People forget that SLU has 3 games left with teams with below .333 win percentages (RPI-kryptonite).

[billiken_roy]

Roy, I have been very surprised at how well Dayton and UMass's RPIs have held up given their 4-5 start to conference play. Dayton has lost 5 of their last 7 games and they've moved from about 10th to 16th. UMass' moves have been similar. If Dayton were to go 3-4 to end the regular season I suspect their RPI would be in the mid 20s but I don't think there is any way they get an at-large with a 7-9 A-10 record, injuries or no injuries.

St. joes finishing 3rd with a 12-4 conference record is way different then St. joes finishing 3rd at 10-6. The first gets them right on the bubble while the latter most certainly doesn't.

i am not enough rpi savy to comment. i will agree that if they end up with a 20 something rpi but are not in the top 4 or the A-10, the committee will not leap over the better a-10 conference teams to give umass or dayton a spot.

however i truly believe it wont happen that the top 4 of the a-10 will not include at least three of xavier, rhodey, st joes, umass, and dayton. if that happens, the conference will have proven they dont deserve 3 or more spots

[Taj79]

I stand by my statement --- ill-researched as it may be. Kwjybo knows much more about the topic factually then I care to learn. I guess what I am saying is that I don't believe the A10 has any real respect in the selection process. Much like a tie goes to the runner, advantages will be such that the BCS conference schools will win out when all things are equal. If all things are equal and UMass is paired against Pitt or Dayton is paired against Maryland, the A10 team will lose ---- factula numbers irreagrdless.

That's my story and I'm stickin' to it.

[kwyjibo]

I stand by my statement --- ill-researched as it may be. Kwjybo knows much more about the topic factually then I care to learn. I guess what I am saying is that I don't believe the A10 has any real respect in the selection process. Much like a tie goes to the runner, advantages will be such that the BCS conference schools will win out when all things are equal. If all things are equal and UMass is paired against Pitt or Dayton is paired against Maryland, the A10 team will lose ---- factula numbers irreagrdless.

That's my story and I'm stickin' to it.

I would definitely agree that given an equal profile a Big East or ACC team will get the nod over an A-10 team but that is not what was said earlier. There is evidence that the "objective standard" for BCS teams is lower. I was making the point that even under favorable thinking Rhode Island is now a much better candidate than the 4th (let alone 6th) ACC team. There is some bias (as the BCS conferences always have 4 reps in the selection committee) but there isn't blatant cheating in the process. Also conference slotting is a huge myth (or "mythconception"), if an A-10 team puts together a good profile they will be selected independent of how many teams that is.

SLU was screwed by the NIT process last year but they were on the NIT bubble (should have been just in though).

[Taj79]

Very good argument ---- but I'd like to point out that despite all that logic and stuff, you end with "SLU was screwed ...." Which to me says exactly what I've been saying all along .... logic will lose out to screwing every day of the week, Selection Sunday especially. What did I hear the other day ---- nine teams from the Big East? NINE?!?! Marquette has six losses and is ranked #25. Rhodey is just outside the top 25 andhas what, three losses? Drake has one loss and is extremely slow in climbing the ratings. Where's all that MVC love now? Xavier finally cracked the top 15. Butler has been winning mostly all year and only now got to 10. Indiana comes from the Big Ten and is questionable at best but that's not reflected in the rankings. Purdue has climbed in. There is a bias, I don't care what the logic says, and the A10 is not a part of it. Never will be.

[kshoe]

I stand by my statement --- ill-researched as it may be. Kwjybo knows much more about the topic factually then I care to learn. I guess what I am saying is that I don't believe the A10 has any real respect in the selection process. Much like a tie goes to the runner, advantages will be such that the BCS conference schools will win out when all things are equal. If all things are equal and UMass is paired against Pitt or Dayton is paired against Maryland, the A10 team will lose ---- factula numbers irreagrdless.

That's my story and I'm stickin' to it.

Taj, where does your belief come from? I actually heard Billy Packer say on a broadcast he thought the A-10 would get 4 teams and considering he has never done anything but ***** when non-BCS teams get at large bids, that tells me the national media has jumped on the A-10 bandwagon.

[billiken_roy]

the most recent "basketball times" (imo the absolute best magazine to follow college basketball) which came out yesterday cover is all about the A-10 and there are mentions about the rising A-10 in just about ever column insider plus the center article is an a-10 focus.

what needs to happen is that the a-10 continues on this upward climb. personally considering it is very apparent that temple and richmond are rising programs. slu with majerus is almost a given improvement, no reason to doubt that xavier and st joes will back slide with their proven programs. i think the a-10 indeed will continue to get better.

[Taj79]

kshoe --- all I can say is that its my opinion ... I have nothing more or nothing less. Ihave heard all the pundits wax poetically over the A10 --- did not hear packer but don't really care. I'v eheard Gottleib and Franschilla and Gillen and Hubert Davis and I take all that to mean that when they are on that particular subject, they are psuhing the topic du jour. But proof is in the pudding and I'll believe it when Selection Sunday comes.

What are there, thirty-four at-large slots available? Lunardi has four A10 teams in today (Xavier, Dayton, Rhode Island and St. Joe's). He has St. Joe's as one of his last ones in and he has Umass as one of the last four out. He has eight teams from the Big East and six each from the Big 12, PAC Ten and SEC with five fromt he Big Ten and four from the ACC. Three ACC teams are getting votes in the AP Top 25 ---- Duke, UNC and Clemson. Lunardi's fourth ACC team is Maryland. Butler and Drake are ranked and Lunardi has them in but what happens if they don't win the league in tournament? I'm sorry but I thik they will cut the A10 down before they move on to the next two ... which are two teams each from the Mountain West and West Coast. "Quit your b*tching, you got two teams. You ain't the ACC, y'know."

Some other items ---- what happens if teams picked to win their leagues go buh-bye? UNC Asheville with Behemoth man George in the middle does not win the Big South? So what, sure, but kent State is 20 and 5 --- and th ecurrent sole rep out of the MAC. Do they get slighted? Just call me skepitcal.

[billiken_roy]

taj, there are 31 conferences with automatic bids. of those 31 conferences, only 13 of them have at least one team with a top 40 rpi. that means that there are 18 teams that really dont belong in the tourney that will get an automatic team no matter what happens in the tourney. that leaves 65-18 or 47 more teams. assuming top 40 rpi teams get in (i know that isnt for sure, see missouri state, but just for example sakes) that leaves 7 pure spots to use for conference upsets imo.

i.e. no way that butler and drake are not getting in if they maintain their 18 and 8 rpi until their conference tourneys.

if they would lose their respective conference tourney, they will take spots from the likes of other at large hopefuls with lesser rpi's than butler and drake. unfortunately, i think the likes of st joes would be prime choice to lose those their bid as they have the more modest rpi of 41.

the scary thing (scary for the teams concerned) i am seeing this year is there are a number of "drakelike" scenarios out there.

drake mvc

butler horizon

south alabama sun belt

st mary's and gonzaga west coast

brigham young and unlv mountain west

no one else in each conference above is deserved to get in the tourney other than by winning their tourney, and thus definitely set up someone being left out if they get upset in the tourney.

[SLU Hilljack]

As for the rest, I think Rhodey and St. Joe's are onthe bubble right now. Go deep intothe AC tournament, and you have a better than average shot. Go one and out and say hello to the NIT. The Big East and the ACC will leap like vultures on a next-tier conference having their so called power teams flame out. Look at UMass last year. Right now, the only way UMass, Charlotte or Dayton (or anyone else for that matter in this league) go anywhere its due to winning the title.

There are a number of factors that go into a selection and I recall one ofthose being "last ten." How you are doing in the last ten games matters. So, if a Dayton or a UMass beats a Louisville or a Pitt or a Syracuse early, its about as ancient history as last year. Dayton continues to plug along like us -- win one lose one win one lose one -- and only wins at home and then takes one game in AC, sorry, i don't see it. All the fans can scream and yell but I guarantee you that if BC jumps up and wins the ACC in Carolina that will add to the ACC's haul and impact on a conference like ours, not theirs. Instead of six locks, the ACC will get seven --- the six locks plus the upset winner.

I completely understand saying that the Big East mid-tier contenders will be jumping all over any and all bids out there, and even possibly the Pac 10, though you didn't say them. But the ACC is actually having a down year. Aside from Duke and UNC, who always go, the next two are Maryland and Clemson I think. Clemson started on fire but has tapered off since the ACC schedule picked up (with a nod to their close-call against UNC last week) and Maryland has upset a couple of solid teams, like UNC, but they started off slow. I'm not saying that either Clemson or Maryland won't get in, I'm only saying that those two teams are not the strong 3 and 4 teams from the ACC of years past, so saying that there are at least two more, and possibly three, teams in the ACC that should get in to the tourney is kind of overstating things. This is a down year for them. That being said, I still think they'll get at their 5, especiailly if there is an upset in their tourney, but the conference to watch in terms of stealing bids is going to be the Pac 10. Even UW is showing signs of life. They still have 9 teams alive for bids, with the only notable exception being Oregon State.

Have to agree about Xavier ruining things for the rest of the conference if they win in AC. Though I would probably rather see an A-10 team go to the elite 8, and be one of only two reps from the conf compared to having 3 teams in the tourney but none of them able to get out of the first weekend. So if winning in AC gets them a higher seed, and thus increases the likelihood of them making it into the sweet 16 (or even elite 8, afterall they do have a sweet track record in the tourney recently) then I'm all for it.