NIT and Small Conference Tourneys

[moytoy12]

Did a quick review and noticed that the MAAC tourney champ (Niagara) and the Atlantic Sun tourney champ (Belmont) are small conference champions that did not also win their regular season title. However, both the MAAC regular season champ (Marist) and Atlantic Sun champ (East Tenn.) look to have really good records and perhaps they were going to the NIT regardless. Obviously Creighton won, but that might be a good thing for NIT hopes as they were going to the NIT but for a conference tourney win. They might have opened up a spot...who knows.

I'm not pleased with a NIT trip, but i'll take it over nothing. Not quite sure what to make of these results but i still like SLU's chances of getting in NIT if we don't make a tourney run. Again, not happy about it, but i don't want our season to end if we lose in the conf. tourney either.

[Westy03]

I think that majority of the board feels the same way including myself. Not happy but more SLU basketball.

[Bay Area Billiken]

These lesser conferences are a problem for a team like SLU trying to make the NIT if it doesn't run the table in Atlantic City

Four (4) NIT bids have already been lost to these lesser conference regular season champs that didn't win their conference tournaments:

Marist, MAAC, RPI 108

Austin Peay, OVC, RPI 116

East Tennessee State, Atlantic Sun, RPI 119

South Alabama, Sun Belt, RPI 132.

And there are NIT bids that could be lost the same way as the rest of the lesser conference tournaments are played.

Couple that with the reduction in the NIT field from 40 to 32, and SLU making the NIT is no sure thing right now.

I do not think any of those above 4 schools would get NIT bids without this rule. With the old NIT Committee from New York, perhaps Marist would have been given an NIT bid, but more likely Fordham and St. John's would be given bids. Now the NIT is owned by the NCAA, and the NIT Committee is composed of that college of retired coaches. As I recall, once these new "automatic" NIT bids were given last year, the rest of the "at large" field almost followed the RPI to a t, with the exception being that VCU for some reason was snubbed.

As it stands, this morning, per the RPI, SLU, with its RPI of 80 would be the second to last NIT team in the field. And that includes picking SLU over 4 schools from the A-10 that finished better in the conference race: George Washington (RPI 83), St. Joseph's (RPI 94), Fordham (RPI 98), and Rhode Island (RPI 123). On the other hand, Dayton (RPI 75) would have the 23rd of the currently available 28 at large NIT bids, and Dayton finished tied with SLU, but below SLU for A-10 Tournament seeding purposes. That loss at Dayton did not help SLU's NIT case at all, even if it yielded that first round matchup with Duquesne instead of Temple.

To make the NIT, it may well be that SLU must win 2 A-10 Tournament games, at minimum, and that includes beating UMass in the quarterfinals.

Of course, the real goal is to run the table in Atlantic City, win 4 games, and get the NIT bid. How about SLU taking Mo. State's NCAA bid? Now that would be poetic justice.

[billiken_roy]

i dont think we have a chance in hell of getting in the nit.

i just dont think they will leap over 4 or 5 a-10 teams in front of us in the final standings to give us an nit spot. and i dont see the a-10 getting 6 nit spots.

now if we were just talking about a team or two then maybe it happens. but we ended up too far down the ladder.

it is sweep this week or we are done imo.

[moytoy12]

I appreciate the analysis, much more detailed (and more informative) than i provided. When you put it that way, i tend to agree with you and Roy that NIT is no sure thing right now.

[SLUDrew]

If we do that, I think we should be in good shape. Anything short of that and its over.

[Box and Won]

I tend to agree with you. And if Butler beats Wright State tonight, there's one less spot in the NIT as Wright State won the Horizon.

[billiken_roy]

last year when they announced that the nit would protect those regular season conference winners they more or less said they were using the standings for bids imo.

second, they will likely continue to protect the precious bcs conferences and take those media percieved strong conferences going way down ladder in each conferences.

the only scenario that i think would play out and give us a chance for teh nit is that umass and xavier get at large bids and gw wins the tourney.

then they give rhodey and one or two more a-10 teams an nit bid.

i just dont think the ncaa at large bids will go down far enough this year to get umass in. there is an unbelieveable inbalance this year in the rpi and the bcs conferences and i believe the at large bids may not even cover the top 40 rpi teams this year assuming the typical conference tourney upsets each year (i am sure the seeding committee was dancing with joy when gonzaga survived last night).

umass is going to get left behind in at large bids.

the conference just isnt good enough to warrant the bids.

i say that xu is the only ncaa team safe. if someone else wins the conf tourney that would give us two ncaa teams and then the a-10 wuold still get 2 nit bids. no way it will get down to us.

we have to win the tourney and get to the ncaa tourney. or the boys will be on spring break. not running plays.

[Bay Area Billiken]

By my count, last year 6 "automatic" NIT bids went to lesser conference champs that didn't win their conference tournaments, although Manhattan had a good enough RPI for an NIT at large bid.

So really the number was 5 last year. We are already at 4 this year.

Because SLU has seemingly been in this predicament forever, I was among the biggest critics when that new rule was put into place. If the goal is to take the best teams, then that new rule breaks the goal. On the other hand, it does reward a team for winning a conference, even one that should not legitimately be in Division 1.

Another gremlin to watch is the Santa Clara situation. After losing last night's WCC final to Gonzaga, Santa Clara is 21-10 and finished in second place in the WCC. There is sentiment out here to give Santa Clara an NIT bid given the situation with its "retiring" Coach Dick Davey, who spent 15 years as head coach after spending 15 years earlier as assistant coach. And Davey served as SCU assistant coach under Carroll Williams, who sits on that NIT College of Retired Coaches Committee.

With an RPI of 97, Santa Clara should be out of the NIT under normal circumstances. But there is talk out here of letting them in the NIT because of the coach's situation.

[Bay Area Billiken]

In addition to the NCAA bubble teams doing a jig when Gonzaga won the WCC, they were also happy when VCU prevailed in the Colonial.

Gonzaga's win should have helped NIT hopefuls in normal years by eliminating Santa Clara and saving an NIT bid that would have gone to Gonzaga had SCU won last night and taken the automatic NCAA bid. But see my other post above re Santa Clara being a sentimental pick for the NIT due to the "retiring" coach's situation.

Also, the VCU win in the Colonial saved an NIT bid, as the ripple effect went down the line.

But the more I look at this, I'm resigned to agreeing with Billiken Roy's opinion, namely that SLU must win the A-10 Tournament to play in the post-season. The more I think about it, I don't even know if beating UMass will be enough for the NIT, given the reduction in teams by 8 and these "automatic" NIT bids.

If SLU can run the table in Atlantic City, all of this will be moot, and SLU will be dancing with the big boys.

[Box and Won]

Off-topic: Did you see Dick Davey's wife at the game last night?

[Bay Area Billiken]

Yes, on TV.

[Box and Won]

She looked like something out of the 70's!

[kwyjibo]

Roy--"last year when they announced that the nit would protect those regular season conference winners they more or less said they were using the standings for bids imo."

Roy, I have no idea why you continue to say this. There is absolutely no evidence of it and it is odd thing for a Billiken fan to say when the Billikens last year "were jumped over" in the NIT selection process (St. Joe's and Charlotte). There is plenty of other evidence to the contrary as well.

There is a long history of people over-emphasizing conference standings in post-season selection. It really is not a selection criteria for the NCAA or the NIT but yet some people some fixated on it. Yes, teams higher up in the standings are better teams usually or finish stronger (both important selection criteria) but when teams have good non-conf but mediocre conf record they are not additionally punished by their standings in conference.

Right now, SLU's (and even Dayton's) NIT chances are a bit better than Fordham, St. Joe's and Rhode Island.

That said, St. Louis is highly likely (near lock) in with two wins and probably out (but even then a solid shot) with only one win in AC. There have not been that many upsets to get any more pessimistic.

[Bay Area Billiken]

I'm still concerned about leaving SLU's fate in the hands of this College of Retired Coaches.

I don't know how much influence the old NIT Committee still has, but the semifinals and finals are still at Madiscon Square Garden. And when one sees Fordham sitting there, as well as St. John's, there is still concern that some East Coast/NYC gerrymandering could be coming.

[Bay Area Billiken]

Re St. Joe's, they beat SLU so soundly twice last year.

However, SLU won at Charlotte. So go figure.

Also, in the past, I heard that lobbying the NIT was prudent. I don't know if that is still the case under the new system.

I sure hope SLU is in the NIT with 2 A-10 Tournament wins. Playing Duquesne will hurt SLU's RPI just by playing the game, but a win over UMass should help SLU's RPI.

[Schasz]

I really don't like the Not Important Tourney at all, but in the past they have also looked at regional match ups that could draw a good crowd. The honks that pick the brand X tourney might try and put a Mizzou-SLU match up together.

[billiken_roy]

kwyjibo, jumping over one or two teams is one thing (st joes and charlotte last year getting in instead of slu) but jumping over maybe 5 teams assuming xu is the only team in, is crazy. i just dont see it.

[brianstl]

Roy if they think a SLU vs. MU match-up would draw a great gate and pull in a good TV rating, they will try to make it happen. I know the committee is different, there are now automatic bids, the field is now 32, and the NCAA now runs it; but the thing is they still want to make as much money off of it as possible.

[billiken_roy]

true brian, of course that isnt possible because disney on ice is in town again thus we either have to go to st chuck or columbia to make that game possible.

plus mi$$ouri wont play us and i believe would lobby hard against the nit forcing that draw. if they (mi$$ouri) cared about the money opportunity, they would have played us this year instead of the 11 or 12 stiffs that drew 3k to columbia in november and december.

[brianstl]

I see no way Mizzou turns down a NIT bid to advoid play SLU. If this wasn't MA first season and MU wasn't coming off the Quinn debacle maybe, but they have no leverage this year. The Tigers are not in a position to turn down a bid this year. They have to and will take what they can get. If it happens, big if, I think it would be played in St. Chuck. It would sell out, which I don't think would happen at MU. I believe MU will be on spring break.

[billiken_roy]

they wont turn anything down, they will make sure that game isnt on the table before the bids are announced.

if that wasnt possible to do, there is no way the nit would have been passing that game up all these years.

[Bay Area Billiken]

Duck season will remain in effect in Boone County, MO.

[brianstl]

I just don't think they have the leverage to stop it this year if the NIT wants to make it happen. Seriously nobody around the country considers MU as anything approaching big time. They are viewed basically on the same level as SLU now. The years of number one rankings, elite eight runs, and Big 8 titles are long gone. MU is just another middle of the road basketball program now.

[billiken_roy]

leverage = walmart?