Zink

Reggie played for a relatively long stretch of the second half at Vandy and looked good doing it.

His passing from the point has been our most consistent method for beating the zone this season

Well done!

Yeah, no problem! This is what forums are for, no?And this example makes perfect sense. I too think we have a shot at making a long run, as our conference schedule is a tad backloaded. Hopefully we are healthy, non-smoking 65 year olds by then

This is somewhat true, and is not what I took your prior post to mean. After each game becomes a 1 or a 0 (for win probability), of course we will have a better estimate of our final win total. Also, each team's rating will change over time as a result of their performance, changing each game's predicted outcome somewhat and hopefully becoming more accurate. But the model never actually predicted that we will win our next 13 and then lose the next however many, hence the confusion...If we were to win the next 12, winning the 13th game would simply be whatever the win probability for that specific game, yes. BUT the reason we calculate the cumulative probability is because it should give a better view towards expected performance without assuming knowledge of events that are being predicted by the model. Edit: The Wiz said this in a more straightforward way above - thanks! (Although you can't roll a 7 with a single die)

Woof. I am on my phone and can't multi-quote, but this is directed at GOSLU68 as well...Being favored does not mean that this predictor model expects us to actually win every game we are favored in. Each game is an independent event with a probabilistic outcome. Consider this illustration - we could be favored in all of our remaining games, with a 51% chance of winning each game individually. Despite being favored for each game, the model would NOT be predicting that we win out, rather it would result in an expected record of 9-9. In the same way, our predicted record builds in the probability of each game and calculates the likelihood across all possible outcomes, arriving at the most likely scenario given the current ratings. The way they estimate our final record as predicted by this model would basically be to add up each game's win probability (%/100) and add that sum to our current record. I hope this brief explanation clarifies the picture somewhat...

For our team he is average, but we as a team go to the line pretty infrequently. Last time I checked, our FT rate was around 300th in the country. It has probably gone up after the last two games, but we have not been getting to the line much this season.

No need to apologize - I am very grateful for your contributions, as are a number other posters I'm sure. Thanks, and please keep up the good work!

nope

The kid is averaging a monstrous 4.85 blocks/40min! I really like how he plays on defense, although (back to the thread's topic) he could be better on the glass. I felt bad for him when, in what might have been two straight possessions, he got absolutely mugged under the basket. His only two TOs of the game came on what looked to me like hack-jobs. Not to mention the fouls he gets called for when the other team jumps into his chest - contact can result in a no call, although refs have a hard time swallowing the whistle when a 6'0" guard hits the floor as a result of running into a JM-sized wall.

Skip - I wasn't trying to single you out. I honestly can't remember why I picked yours to respond to. It just seems like in every thread, someone ends up mentioning how bad we are at rebounding, and then all of a sudden there was an ENTIRE thread devoted to the subject! Many have complained about shot selection as well, and basically I posted in an attempt to show that any regression from years past was due to a change in that aspect of our team, not due to our "board game". I wish we were better on the boards too, I just don't think we NEED to be to reach the heights we aspire to. All teams have strengths and weaknesses, and I am fine if we are merely a top-90 rebounding team, especially when considering our emphasis on transition defense.

The only way I see us stopping Ronaldo is if we let Bedoya start the game and just tell him to partner up with Cameron (please dear god not Brad Evans) and stay back on our right flank. Even then he will get some chances, he is just that good. Our CB pairings' positioning will be key, as they need to be able to recover onto him when he inevitably gets by the first defender.

Another excuse to use for our rebounding totals would be the number of TOs we force - this causes us to not have tremendous rebounding advantages even against smaller, athletically inferior teams. Also, we have only had two bad games with respect to rebounding (WSU and Valpo), and the WSU game wasn't even terrible, it was just not good. I don't think that rebounding is crippling the team this year. In years past, our numbers on the glass have been pretty similar, yet our team was much better. I believe that our troubles this year have come on the offensive end, especially due to poor shot selection, and poor shooting. I will try and back this up with data... In order to talk about our rebounding, we need to look at rebound %, not just total rebounds. On the defensive glass, we haul in 71.3% of rebounds, ranked 88 in the country. On the offensive glass, we get 31.6% of the rebounds, which puts us at 197 in that category. We are a slightly above average rebounding team (51.5% of total rebounds, 138th in the country), even though we don't hit the offensive glass, or only have one guy doing it (which is an intentional part of our defensive strategy). We have never been an elite rebounding team (and were actually worse last year - 70.9/27.9/49.4; and almost exactly the same the year prior - 71.3/31.6/51.4), but we don't need to be for this team to win games. That being said, we can't get owned on the glass like what happened last night and expect things to go well. If I were to pick out a complaint for this team, it is shot selection, particularly by the guards. We have been settling for long 2's early in the shot clock far too often. We are getting a much lower percentage of our points from the line (19.7% this year which is 272nd in the country, compared to 23.5% and 20.1% the last two years - our free throw rate this year is an abysmal 306th in the nation), and from 3pt land (21.1% of our points this year, ranked 274th in the country, compared to 26.4% and 30.6% the previous two years) than we have the past two years. We need to take (and make) those more efficient shots. Last night we looked more patient, especially in the first half when we tore apart their zone with good passing that lead to a bunch of layups for Glaze and Evans. Once Jett, McCall and even Evans started taking 18-footers, that is when we gave up our hard earned lead. KenPom currently has us rated 131st in offensive efficiency, while being 4th defensively. In past years, those numbers have been 75/6 (2013), 29/11 (2012). In order to move from being a top 30ish team to the top 15ish team we expected, we need to figure things out on offense. - Sorry for the long post with lots of data, I have just gotten a little tired of people complaining about our rebounding when it isn't a glaring weakness, even if it isn't a strength either. We have other issues that need attention. I wish we had SportVu data like they have in the NBA so I could backup the mid-range shooting hypothesis, but the FT and 3pt data seems to support the idea that we aren't attacking the basket or taking threes in the ways we used to...

Yes, ESPN totally revamped their rating system a few years ago. There isn't a great way to compare the ESPN ratings between classes as they shifted everything to a scale that is more like rivals/ scout. Previously almost everyone who was scouted was given at least an 80, but now that floor is more like 60.

Looks like he's got Jahlil Okafor on board too! http://instagram.com/p/grULBQgda_/#

Too bad Reggie is out for this one. He could do some serious damage inside against this team

That game was actually in Pittsburgh as part of a tournament...

Looking back at the schedules on ESPN it was @ Loyola Chicago on 11/29/2006... That is awhile ago - I kind of hope I am wrong http://espn.go.com/ncb/recap?gameId=263332350

Wow. Graham hits the trey with 1sec left. 59-56 VCU

It says we both have 5 offensive reb

That's just because we have taken (and missed) more reboundable shots than them. We maybe should have another offensive rebound, but generally the team that misses the most shots has the fewest rebounds...

i went to their mobile site... i'll look for a linkhttp://www.101sports.com/mobile-apps/

They have a new app that you need to download, but there isn't any feed on it either...

Well the 101 feed doesn't seem to be working...

Was on my phone, didn't see the embedded file. That's neat...