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Posted

A tough loss to Day because with a few less TOs we could have won the game. Again this game was not an outlier . In the last 3 out of 4 games,  we have had 17-19 TOs...way too many....you just can't get the other team those extra possessions and have a chance to win. Each TO  is worth about 1.25 pts to the opposition.  Plus you have an additional point taken away by not having a FGA.  When you give up that an extra 7 TOs , you are creating about a 16 pt swing in points away from your team. In a conference where there  is great parity and most games are won by just a few points , you can't give away 16 points and expect to win.  The good news is that it is not a chronic condition.  We have had a number of games where we have taken care of the ball.  We just came out of a 3P funk where we couldn't shoot for 3 .5 games. Now we need to get back to protecting  the ball.  Protect the ball =win the game.

Game preview...We are the B team....UMass enters the game as C+...They have a bad offense  and an OK defense.  Their defense though is not as good as ours.  The computer says we are the better team but our inconsistency  and a tough Mass venue keeps the computer from giving us the win.

Diggins  is there main man. Keep him under control and we have a good chance to win.

Our advantage lies in 3P shots...Mass is one of the worst 3P shooting teams ITN.  If we guard them , we can push them under 20%.   Of course , in the end , we need to make some 3s...if we do, we win. 

Finally, Mass is a bad shooting FT team. As much as we have struggled this year (D- ) Mass is an F.   In a close game , FTs may decide it. 

Top 4...

The computer now sees the top 4 this way...VCU, GM, Day and  SLU. If anyone falters St. J and St. B are ready to swoop in on any weakness. The good news is we remain at B.  The bad news is that for the last month we have been moving sideways. The computer still thinks we need to get to B+ to hang onto a top 4 position.  The next 3 games will be big for the Bills in determining whether they stay as a top 4 team....UMass in 5th is breathing down our neck...St. J is hanging in the wings as mostly likely to be a top 4 if anyone falters  and GM is a Top 4.

Another chance for the Bills to step up.

Let's take a look at the Report Card...

 Report Card.... 

Report Card change....1 up...1 dn...7 unchanged =  unchanged

UP.....OFF....3P%....DEF....none

Dn....OFF....PPG...DEF........none

 

................SLU...............Mass.................SLU......................Mass

...........................OFF...........................................DEF..........

PPG...........C-..................C+.......................B............................D

FG%..........B+.................D-........................B+..........................B+

3P%..........C+..................F-..8th WITN......A............................B

FT%..........D-..................F........................................................

Reb............C.................A..........................D.............................F+

 OFF Rebs  = total Bills rebs...DEF Rebs = opp total reb

Top 100 In The Nation

SLU...

2P%....Team...3rd.........dn

PPG....Jimerson.....75th...up

Asst....Swope........62nd...dn

3PM......Jimerson...32nd...up

..............Swope.......51st...up

Reb....Anya............24th...unch

FG%...Anya..........76th ...unch

Mass...

PPG...Diggins...96th

Blks....Muhammad ...29th

Injuries...

SLU...

Casey & Dotzler...OFTS

Thames...Ques....2/1...undisclosed

Mass

none

Keys to the game...Make the slash....Protect the ball...make shots. Muhammad is their block guy ...don't make it easy by coming right at him.

WWN2D2W..... Target slash 48/36/73...beat their slash...Keep them under 70 pts.  beat them on TOs...come within 2 on rebs.  Hold Diggins to 14 pts.

Bottom line...

If we make them play our game...then time will run out on the Minutemen.

Posted
9 hours ago, The Wiz said:

A tough loss to Day because with a few less TOs we could have won the game. Again this game was not an outlier . In the last 3 out of 4 games,  we have had 17-19 TOs...way too many....you just can't get the other team those extra possessions and have a chance to win. Each TO  is worth about 1.25 pts to the opposition.  Plus you have an additional point taken away by not having a FGA.  When you give up that an extra 7 TOs , you are creating about a 16 pt swing in points away from your team. In a conference where there  is great parity and most games are won by just a few points , you can't give away 16 points and expect to win.  The good news is that it is not a chronic condition.  We have had a number of games where we have taken care of the ball.  We just came out of a 3P funk where we couldn't shoot for 3 .5 games. Now we need to get back to protecting  the ball.  Protect the ball =win the game.

Game preview...We are the B team....UMass enters the game as C+...They have a bad offense  and an OK defense.  Their defense though is not as good as ours.  The computer says we are the better team but our inconsistency  and a tough Mass venue keeps the computer from giving us the win.

Diggins  is there main man. Keep him under control and we have a good chance to win.

Our advantage lies in 3P shots...Mass is one of the worst 3P shooting teams ITN.  If we guard them , we can push them under 20%.   Of course , in the end , we need to make some 3s...if we do, we win. 

Finally, Mass is a bad shooting FT team. As much as we have struggled this year (D- ) Mass is an F.   In a close game , FTs may decide it. 

Top 4...

The computer now sees the top 4 this way...VCU, GM, Day and  SLU. If anyone falters St. J and St. B are ready to swoop in on any weakness. The good news is we remain at B.  The bad news is that for the last month we have been moving sideways. The computer still thinks we need to get to B+ to hang onto a top 4 position.  The next 3 games will be big for the Bills in determining whether they stay as a top 4 team....UMass in 5th is breathing down our neck...St. J is hanging in the wings as mostly likely to be a top 4 if anyone falters  and GM is a Top 4.

Another chance for the Bills to step up.

Let's take a look at the Report Card...

 Report Card.... 

Report Card change....1 up...1 dn...7 unchanged =  unchanged

UP.....OFF....3P%....DEF....none

Dn....OFF....PPG...DEF........none

 

................SLU...............Mass.................SLU......................Mass

...........................OFF...........................................DEF..........

PPG...........C-..................C+.......................B............................D

FG%..........B+.................D-........................B+..........................B+

3P%..........C+..................F-..8th WITN......A............................B

FT%..........D-..................F........................................................

Reb............C.................A..........................D.............................F+

 OFF Rebs  = total Bills rebs...DEF Rebs = opp total reb

Top 100 In The Nation

SLU...

2P%....Team...3rd.........dn

PPG....Jimerson.....75th...up

Asst....Swope........62nd...dn

3PM......Jimerson...32nd...up

..............Swope.......51st...up

Reb....Anya............24th...unch

FG%...Anya..........76th ...unch

Mass...

PPG...Diggins...96th

Blks....Muhammad ...29th

Injuries...

SLU...

Casey & Dotzler...OFTS

Thames...Ques....2/1...undisclosed

Mass

none

Keys to the game...Make the slash....Protect the ball...make shots. Muhammad is their block guy ...don't make it easy by coming right at him.

WWN2D2W..... Target slash 48/36/73...beat their slash...Keep them under 70 pts.  beat them on TOs...come within 2 on rebs.  Hold Diggins to 14 pts.

Bottom line...

If we make them play our game...then time will run out on the Minutemen.

Seems like every game we play is against a team with no injuries.  We are handicapped right from the start.

Posted

I'll be keeping an eye on Offensive Rebounds.  UMass leads the A10 in conference game OR's, better even than VCU.  We all saw what happened at the VCU away game.   We will have to crash the glass with 3 or 4. 

UMass is second in league play in blocked shots.  Ex-Billiken Rivera is their top swatter.  I'm guessing Martin will play Avila the same that VCU and Dayton did, leaving Anya unguarded on the perimeter and stationing a big in the lane and guarding Avila with a smaller player. While Dayton only blocked 4 shots, we all saw what happened at the rim with L'Etang in there. How Schertz counters this likely defensive scheme from Martin will be something to watch. 

UMass is 3-1 at home in A10 play, beating Dayton, GW and LaSalle but losing to Richmond (yes, that Richmond - at home).

Posted
5 hours ago, CenHudDude said:

Seems like every game we play is against a team with no injuries.  We are handicapped right from the start.

Stu quoted Coach saying Swope is playing through knee discomfort....it’s not like he’s fully healthy. 

Posted

 

What a win...Schertz said it was one of the most amazing wins in his career.

Quick recap...Ask yourself at the end of each statement if you thought we had a chance to win...on which statement number did you flip over and say this is a loss.

1..Avila fouls out at 8 1/2 min to go in the game...Bills down 6

2... Bills down 10  with 6 1/2 to go

3....Bills down 7 with 4 1/2 min to go

4....Bills down 5 with 38 sec to go

5....Bills down  1 with 14 sec left  and Swope misses a 3P shot and Mass gets the Reb

6....Still down 1  McCottry steals the ball and is laying on the floor with a Mass player laying on him at 11 sec

7....10 sec left ...McCottry passes the ball to Swope...

8...Swope sinks a 3 for a 2 pt lead with with 9.3 sec left

9...Mass gives the ball to their leading scorer Diggins(26 pts /gm in A10 play ) in the final secs

10...In the final sec, Diggins goes up for a layup....

11...Anya blocks it

12...Bills recover the final shot as the buzzer rings....Bills score 7 pts in 28 sec

So at which number did you give up or were you a Bill-iever all the way.

As you remember, the computer picked this game as even...It doesn't get much more even than that.

One thing notable about the game finish is that earlier in the season we would have lost a game like this.

Time for a closer look...Bolded statements from the original post.

The computer says we are the better team but our inconsistency  and a tough Mass venue keeps the computer from giving us the win...I would say this is a true statement...we were the better team and our inconsistency kept it close. Our gelling helped win the game.

Diggins  is there main man. Keep him under control and we have a good chance to win.  Hold Diggins to 14 pts....I think this was one of the main reasons we won...We held Diggins to 5 pts...13/10/ 0...no FTs.

Mass is one of the worst 3P shooting teams ITN.  If we guard them , we can push them under 20%. ...We pushed them down to 25% and won the battle  35 to 25%. 

Mass is a bad shooting FT team. As much as we have struggled this year (D- ) Mass is an F.   In a close game , FTs may decide it...We won this battle 64 to 61%...We shot D-  to their F ...A side note here  ...Mass had more FTM  because we had more fouls......Time for a couple of trivia questions...What team in the A10 has the most fouls ?  ...What team has the least fouls?  If you answered Mass  and SLU in that order ...you are correct....btw  Mass had 10 fouls for the  game and SLU had 16...3rd trivia question...What is wrong with those numbers?

Target slash 48/36/73...Actual 49/ 35/ 64...pretty close...we missed it by one 3 and 1 FT.

come within 2 on rebs... we were within 3 ...again close enough...

Keep them under 70 pts...Close again

beat them on TOs...This was a miss in a game we should have had a double digit win. But even here there were a couple of rays of hope...We had 15 TOs ...still too many BUT less than the 18 we have been averaging recently.  Another positive item was we gave up 12 pts on TOs.   We generally average around 1.25 pts given up/TO...That means normally we would have given up 19pts...a saving of 7 pts...which kept us closer than usual....We still need to fix this but for tonight it worked out.

Or as @Old guy said above ...this was something close to a miracle.

Finally , I leave you with what may have been my best forecast in the opening post....

 

Bottom line...

If we make them play our game...then time will run out on the Minutemen....It certainly did. tick , tick, tick..BAM...Buzzer

Go Bills

 

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