The Wiz Posted January 8 Share Posted January 8 General Outlook.... According 2 the computer , the A-10 is now a 2 bid conference. I know we have all be come accustom to embracing "Juan" but there is another bid on the horizon. Dayton, of course is leading the pack, and coming in at a 51% chance right now is GM (beat us and you become a contender). On the NIT front ...St. J is showing a 62% chance and UMass a 60% chance for NIT bids. Again a long way to go but that is where we are now. The Bills meanwhile are still wallowing in PIG land. The good news is ...if we beat anybody we will move up quickly. Let's at least get out of the pen. Game Preview....St. J comes in at a B+...we remain at C but the numbers are still weakening . We need a win to stay at C. Grade wise it looks like St. J is the better team . But an important factor here is SOS...St. J = F+....SLU =B. ...This is kind of like a rear view mirror warning ..."objects are closer than they appear" ...in this case St. J is closer than they appear. But with that said the Hawks have some players that can shoot. ...Fleming, Reynolds and X Brown are all listed in the Top 100 (see report card below). They play a tough defense like GM but are not as good on offense as the Patriots. Let's see what the report card looks like.... Report Card.... The card is positive this game with no categories down and 2 up....and believe it or not the 2 categories are on Def. The defensive report card is still dismal but there has been some improvement on opp reb and opp FG %. ...Be thankful for small miracles. ....................SLU............St. J..........SLU..........................St. J ..............................OFF..........................................DEF............. PPG...............C-................B-.................D-............................B+ FG%...............C.................C...................D-...........................A+..6th ITN 3P%...............A-................B+.................D+..........................A- FT%...............C..................C+..................................................... Reb...............D-..................B...................D+............................C OFF Rebs = total rebs...DEF Rebs = opp reb UP...............Off....none....Def....FG%...Reb Down.........Off......none....Def....none Top 100 In The Nation SLU Min /gm...Jimerson ...40th St. J Asst....Greer...97th FT%...Reynolds...84th Blks...Fleming...92nd 3P%...X Brown...54th (48%) 2P%...Fleming...34th (68%) Injury /Illness report and misc The Bills.... Parker ....Nov 17....Out indefinitely...fractured foot....no more recent official updates Meadows...Jan 6...Questionable...Head St. J... Lange...Dec 6 ....Out indefinitely ...Concussion Winborne...12/22...Out indef...personal matter Haskins...11/14...out for season...requested red shirt. Keys to the Game....... WWN2D2W...Target slash...47/39/73....Hold St. J to 72pts....Beat St. J on TOs...Stay within 3 on Rebs....Keep both Browns under 40% from the arc....Hold Reynolds, Fleming and Green to 31 pts. Bottom line....If The Bills can keep TOs under control...we can put the Hawks in our rearview mirror. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MusicCityBilliken Posted January 8 Share Posted January 8 My neighbor across the street here in Nashville is a Joey alum. He's an old guy, he attended St Joseph's when Jack Ramsey was the coach. He's a fan but not a big fan. Last 2 years (since we both moved in about the same time) I invited him over to watch the game on my big screen and enjoy my special chili. This year I told him I have another commitment. Fortunately I do but any normal Bills year would have gotten out of the commitment. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Old guy Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 Wiz, your estimate favoring SLU over St. Joe by two points basically states that either team can win this coming game. Surprisingly team rankings has not published the Vegas inspired odds yet, the game is tomorrow. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
White Pelican Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 2 minutes ago, Old guy said: Wiz, your estimate favoring SLU over St. Joe by two points basically states that either team can win this coming game. Surprisingly team rankings has not published the Vegas inspired odds yet, the game is tomorrow. You have his forecast backwards but I'd say it's a toss-up too. The Wiz likes this Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CenHudDude Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 8 hours ago, White Pelican said: You have his forecast backwards but I'd say it's a toss-up too. Vegas apparently has the Hawks by 4.5 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Wiz Posted January 10 Author Share Posted January 10 10 hours ago, Old guy said: Wiz, your estimate favoring SLU over St. Joe by two points basically states that either team can win this coming game. Surprisingly team rankings has not published the Vegas inspired odds yet, the game is tomorrow. Even though you had me on the wrong side of the spread, it is OK. This morning's number actually are showing Bills by 1. This is a result of yesterday's A10 games where all 3 favored teams(which were also the home teams...Loy, GM and Dav) lost. This goes back to my point in the preconference forecast from a couple of weeks ago where I mentioned the operative word for the A10 was parity. Even when the favored teams in the A10 win they are not beating the spreads. The result of all this is the computer is tightening up the spreads. What does this mean for The Bills? It means they have a chance to beat any A10 opponent ...especially at home. The one problem team would be Dayton . Bottom line...This is a winnable game tonight if we don't make mistakes (TOs) and make some shots (the slash) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mrjoelabs Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 2 hours ago, The Wiz said: Even though you had me on the wrong side of the spread, it is OK. This morning's number actually are showing Bills by 1. This is a result of yesterday's A10 games where all 3 favored teams(which were also the home teams...Loy, GM and Dav) lost. This goes back to my point in the preconference forecast from a couple of weeks ago where I mentioned the operative word for the A10 was parity. Even when the favored teams in the A10 win they are not beating the spreads. The result of all this is the computer is tightening up the spreads. What does this mean for The Bills? It means they have a chance to beat any A10 opponent ...especially at home. The one problem team would be Dayton . Bottom line...This is a winnable game tonight if we don't make mistakes (TOs) and make some shots (the slash) St. Joes is going to make it rain from outside the arc. The only way we win is if those shots aren't falling Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Old guy Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 I am not trying to rain in anyone's party. Team rankings released their Vegas inspired projections and gives it to St. Joe's by 4. Again, I agree that anyone could be the actual winner. However the discrepancy in the two set of projections may be useful for those of you that like to bet. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Wiz Posted January 11 Author Share Posted January 11 12 hours ago, The Wiz said: This morning's number actually are showing Bills by 1. This is a result of yesterday's A10 games where all 3 favored teams(which were also the home teams...Loy, GM and Dav) lost. This goes back to my point in the preconference forecast from a couple of weeks ago where I mentioned the operative word for the A10 was parity. Even when the favored teams in the A10 win they are not beating the spreads. The result of all this is the computer is tightening up the spreads. What does this mean for The Bills? It means they have a chance to beat any A10 opponent ...especially at home. The one problem team would be Dayton . Bottom line...This is a winnable game tonight if we don't make mistakes (TOs) and make some shots (the slash) The last minute change to the spread this morning proved to be prophetic as I was the only forecaster to have The Bills winning the game. And a well deserved win it was. Let's start with the bottom line from above.... Bottom line....This is a winnable game tonight if we don't make mistakes (TOs) and make some shots (the slash).....We did keep the TOs under control. After giving up 16 TOs /gm in each of the last 2 games we only had 7 this game. This is a game changer. This is what we did in the beginning of the season when we were winning games. Target slash...47/39/73...actual slash...46/54/82...we slashed the slash. In the first quarter we were way under on the slash ... 25% FG ...50% FT (5/10)...You have to make shots to win...we did and we did. Stay within 3 on Rebs...St. J 39...The Bills 36...Bingo...btw I won a Bills jersey for winning the Billiken Bingo card...it was all about tracking game stats live ...I didn't even have the computer with me. Keep both Browns under 40% from the arc....They shot 25% (2-8)...Excellent. Finally , a tip o' the cap to Jimerson who tied a career high with seven 3PM shooting 63% from the arc (7-11) and Medley who shot 100% from the FT line(4-4) in the final minute to keep the win in the Bills column. Bottom line...A real team effort with minimal mistakes and good shooting...And the Red Hawks flap away again ...still winless at the Fetz. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wgstl Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 Onto Dayton, wiz . Have a feeling this momentum keeps us under 30 point dogs?!? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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