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The Wiz

The Bills over St. J by 15

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Great win over VCU...first one since 2013 (0-9)...for more info on the " how we did it" see the VCU spread thread.

Update on A-10 4th place finish...After Sat games there is still a path to the double bye....Here  are our best chances...We are battling 3 teams for that last spot...I am going to show you the best and easiest chances...there are other ways to finish 4th   but those are  more difficult than these......The 3 teams that matter to the Bills at this point are Dav,  Duq & St. B......All scenarios assume we win the next 4 games....Let's start with Dav....They lose to Day..we finish ahead of them...Next we have the game between Duq and St. B on 2/ 26...a key game to the Bills future finish...If Duq wins....they need 1 loss out of the following 3 games...GM , VCU or Rich. and they are out.  If St. B wins  ,  they need 1 loss against St. J or  LaS and they are out.....I have St. B over Duq by  2.    I think we want to be rooting for Duq in this game as it will be easier for Duq to lose one of its last 3 than for St. B to lose against St. Joe or LaS....if it comes down to St. Bon than our best chance would be for LaS  to beat them.....No one said it would be easy but the above permutations are our best shot.

But first we need to win the next game....St. J ...a terrible team....only won 5 games ...one in conference....The report card below is even worse...They are a D+ team trending at D....We are a B team...trending at B-...Unfortunately , our numbers improved only slightly with the win over VCU as the computer saw us beating an equal.  Beating St. Joe won't really help us get to B+ either...but as you see from the paragraph above this is a must win game.

Let's see what we are dealing with... 

..............................SLU..........................St J............................................................SLU...................................St J

................................................OFF.....................................................................................................DEF...............

PPG.........................C.............................D..................................................................B........................................F-..14th WITN

FG%.........................C+...........................F-..7th WITN..............................................B+......................................F

3Pt%........................C.............................F-..................................................................C......................................F- 10th WITN

FT%.........................F-....2nd WITN........C-... .......................................................................................................

Reb.........................A..............................B-...............................................................C+.....................................F

 OFF Rebs  = total rebs...DEF rebs = opp reb

 Bills  Offensive reb....A+....13th  ITN....down

Change from last game (UP means improvement ...Down means worse.......UP ....FG%.....3P%......DOWN.....none

Top 100 ITN

Stls....Goodwin ...28th.....up

Assts...Y Collins....43rd.....up

Rebs...Goodwin...15th....French..22th......down  and down

Off Reb....French ...23rd...Goodwin...30th...down & unchanged

Def reb......Goodwin.....33rd...French ...48th....up and down

Blks.....French....18th...unchanged

Dbl-Dbl.. Goodwin...19th and French  42nd.....up and down

PPG....Daly... 24th

Injury report...

Thatch....2/20/20...Out  For The Season....this will be the last report on Thatch this year...

Funk...F...1/29/20...OFTS...right hand

WWN2D2W.....Mr St Joe is Daly...He leads the team in PPG...Assts...Reb....FG%  and Steals. Hold this guy to 15 pts....and that's about it.

Bottom line....As Elvis use to say...TCOB...Take Care of Business....JUST WIN.

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10 hours ago, The Wiz said:

Great win over VCU...first one since 2013 (0-9)...for more info on the " how we did it" see the VCU spread thread.

Update on A-10 4th place finish...After Sat games there is still a path to the double bye....Here  are our best chances...We are battling 3 teams for that last spot...I am going to show you the best and easiest chances...there are other ways to finish 4th   but those are  more difficult than these......The 3 teams that matter to the Bills at this point are Dav,  Duq & St. B......All scenarios assume we win the next 4 games....Let's start with Dav....They lose to Day..we finish ahead of them...Next we have the game between Duq and St. B on 2/ 26...a key game to the Bills future finish...If Duq wins....they need 1 loss out of the following 3 games...GM , VCU or Rich. and they are out.  If St. B wins  ,  they need 1 loss against St. J or  LaS and they are out.....I have St. B over Duq by  2.    I think we want to be rooting for Duq in this game as it will be easier for Duq to lose one of its last 3 than for St. B to lose against St. Joe or LaS....if it comes down to St. Bon than our best chance would be for LaS  to beat them.....No one said it would be easy but the above permutations are our best shot.

But first we need to win the next game....St. J ...a terrible team....only won 5 games ...one in conference....The report card below is even worse...They are a D+ team trending at D....We are a B team...trending at B-...Unfortunately , our numbers improved only slightly with the win over VCU as the computer saw us beating an equal.  Beating St. Joe won't really help us get to B+ either...but as you see from the paragraph above this is a must win game.

Let's see what we are dealing with... 

..............................SLU..........................St J............................................................SLU...................................St J

................................................OFF.....................................................................................................DEF...............

PPG.........................C.............................D..................................................................B........................................F-..14th WITN

FG%.........................C+...........................F-..7th WITN..............................................B+......................................F

3Pt%........................C.............................F-..................................................................C......................................F- 10th WITN

FT%.........................F-....2nd WITN........C-... .......................................................................................................

Reb.........................A..............................B-...............................................................C+.....................................F

 OFF Rebs  = total rebs...DEF rebs = opp reb

 Bills  Offensive reb....A+....13th  ITN....down

Change from last game (UP means improvement ...Down means worse.......UP ....FG%.....3P%......DOWN.....none

Top 100 ITN

Stls....Goodwin ...28th.....up

Assts...Y Collins....43rd.....up

Rebs...Goodwin...15th....French..22th......down  and down

Off Reb....French ...23rd...Goodwin...30th...down & unchanged

Def reb......Goodwin.....33rd...French ...48th....up and down

Blks.....French....18th...unchanged

Dbl-Dbl.. Goodwin...19th and French  42nd.....up and down

PPG....Daly... 24th

Injury report...

Thatch....2/20/20...Out  For The Season....this will be the last report on Thatch this year...

Funk...F...1/29/20...OFTS...right hand

WWN2D2W.....Mr St Joe is Daly...He leads the team in PPG...Assts...Reb....FG%  and Steals. Hold this guy to 15 pts....and that's about it.

Bottom line....As Elvis use to say...TKOB...Take Care of Business....JUST WIN.

If we win out and finish with the 4 or 5 seed, and beat Dayton in the semifinals but lose the championship game are we in? Would be 24/25-9 with 3 Q1 wins

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10 minutes ago, BillsBeliever!!! said:

If we win out and finish with the 4 or 5 seed, and beat Dayton in the semifinals but lose the championship game are we in? Would be 24/25-9 with 3 Q1 wins

Only if UMass wins out as well and gets bumped up to Q2.  A Q3 loss this late in the season is fatal to teams outside the bubble.

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1 hour ago, BillsBeliever!!! said:

If we win out and finish with the 4 or 5 seed, and beat Dayton in the semifinals but lose the championship game are we in? Would be 24/25-9 with 3 Q1 wins

I have always felt it would take 25 wins to get to the Big Dance....Winning out will get us to 22 wins...which means we need 3 A-10 tourney wins...with the double bye...that is an auto bid.  If we win out and  finish 5th or higher and win 3 games we would have a 35% chance to get in.    If we wanna Dance we need to win the Tourney ....Our best chance to win the tourney is to finish 4th...which is the reason for showing all the 4th place possibilities.

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Temptation tells me to take the points. 

Just as a reminder, against Davidson, the Joey's were down 19 with 15:19 to play and won on a three-point buzzer beater by Cameron Brown to win 73 to 72.  They played that game without the A10's leading scorer Ryan Daly.  Daly missed that game and the one  before it but came back in their last game, a loss at Mason.  They lost 62 to 55 at Mason with Daly scoring 20.   The Davidson game was played at home.

Against Mason, they jacked 56 shots, 30 of which were threes.  Anybody remember what Daly did to us in Philly in February?  I was at the game in Philly and our only guy able to stay with Daly was French.  We should romp at home, right?

Have to win out.  Don't look past this one.

 

 

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Daly should foul out early because he pushes off when he drives. Needs to have more physical defense on him.

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2 hours ago, Billboy1 said:

Daly should foul out early because he pushes off when he drives. Needs to have more physical defense on him.

That depends entirely on how the refs decide to call this game.

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13 hours ago, 3star_recruit said:

Only if UMass wins out as well and gets bumped up to Q2.  A Q3 loss this late in the season is fatal to teams outside the bubble.

Meh. The loss to UMass isn't that late. The idea of the Bills winning the last 4 is kind of crazy given how inconsistently they've played. A win over URI would help. 

Compare SLU to Alabama, currently 40 in NET and listed as "next four out" Alabama is 2-6 in Q-1 and 4-4 in Q 2. They're 6-2 in Q-3. SLU is 1-2, 1-4, and 10-2 in Q-3. 

Alabama is 31 spots higher and in the conversation because they've played a much tougher schedule and gotten six highly-earned victories. If SLU were to beat URI and otherwise win out, they'd get another Q-1 victory, but nothing else. They'd go to Brooklyn, perhaps a 4 seed, and with any luck get a Q-2 win in the quarters, and a Q-1 win in the semis before a Q2 loss, most likely. That's a much better profile. 

Still, getting swept by Dayton and Duquesne presents a huge obstacle. 

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14 hours ago, 3star_recruit said:

Only if UMass wins out as well and gets bumped up to Q2.  A Q3 loss this late in the season is fatal to teams outside the bubble.

Win out? They'd need to jump 6 spots..

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Nice win....we even had a chance to make the exact spread ....but got a little careless at the end.

But overall a nice game with some good numbers....The only number I didn't like was the TO differential....which was 4 ...which means we could have won by 21. But even this was not a big deal because our TOs were a very respectable 11...St J  had a great night protecting the ball with only 7 TOs...the nitpick was that while the 11 we had was a  good number , we still had some nasty TOs.

Well let's get to the good stuff....

On 2/23/2020 at 10:40 AM, The Wiz said:

.Mr St Joe is Daly...He leads the team in PPG...Assts...Reb....FG%  and Steals. Hold this guy to 15 pts....We held him to 16 pts...close enough...A tip o' the Bills hat to Goodwin he did a great job guarding Daly and keeping him in check.

Rebs...Crushed them ...42-28...

FG%...56%...including 75% (15-20) in the 2nd half......in fact the 2nd half  slash was 75/60/60....on fire.  Not to mention, our shooting was so hot that  we had one of our lower offensive reb nights at 7.

Perkins ...mid range jumper....what a good pick me up...and Hargrove always injects energy into the game with some exciting plays...and his defense is coming along too....And let us not take for granted , yet another double double by J Good. and last but not least,  French's 19 pts( FG% ..63%)

Defense...St. J slash...38/ 25 (7-28) / 71...excellent

Plus an A-10 4th place check up.... I had mentioned in my last update that tonight would be the biggest non Bills game affecting the 4th place finish....Duq vs St. B...and the good news is,  it went the Bills way...Duq beats St. B in OT in Olean....This simplifies things greatly....Assuming we win out...there are only 2 teams we need to worry about...Dav and Duq...First Dav...they play Day on Sat ...Done deal... nuf said....Next up Duq ...they need to lose 1 of their last 3 [email protected] &  Rich...best chance for a loss ...the VCU game.

The Clock is ticking ...3 to go.

 

 

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