The Wiz Posted November 11, 2015 Share Posted November 11, 2015 Hi all.......... Time to wind up the computer and crank out some numbers. First off ...nice win for the Bills and even though the game (and numbers) don't count it was a good game. A little tight / rusty in the beginning but they shook it off and rolled. So the first stat coming out of the computer this year is the Bills preseason grade.......C+ While many have been pessimistic or downtrodden anout our upcoming season the computer has a little bit brighter outlook. C+ doesn't mean we will go to the post season but it also means we are not the worst team of all time. ( yes we will beat AL A&M) ... In the A-10 we are projected to finish 9th....again not post season material but better than pundits who are predicting last. As always a few qualifying notes.......... The preseason model is based on a Bayesian forecasting model ie no data. As I do the point spreads on the first 7 games, I will gradually transition to The Wizard program. After the WSU game I will no longer use the Bayesian model. It is at that point that i have enough data to more accurately predict point spread (and grades)....bettors beware in the first 7 games. The grade starts to lock in too after the 7th game with a variation of 2 places...ie if we are still at C+ our range for the season is B to C-. By the time league play begins the variation is 1 ..B- to C.. So what does a C+ from a temporary model with no data mean. It means we are not as bad as some think we are . In fact, with a little luck (no injuries or players leaving) and some coaching up (Crews works his magic) we could be a good team ( B )....still no post season but competitive in every game with some surprise wins. Will we be a good team ( B ) or a below average team ( C- )?... Check back here on Dec 6 and I'll have an answer for you. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Old guy Posted November 11, 2015 Share Posted November 11, 2015 Thank you Wiz Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
majerus mojo Posted November 11, 2015 Share Posted November 11, 2015 Out of curiosity what was the pre-seas rank heading into last year? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
billikenbill Posted November 11, 2015 Share Posted November 11, 2015 The Wiz is good, no doubt about it. Still, last year's results began to mirror Sagarin's so closely, I just figure he actually is Jeff Sagarin. Anyone ever seen The Wiz and Sagarin at the same place and same time? Didn't think so. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Old guy Posted November 12, 2015 Share Posted November 12, 2015 Correlation is not proof. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Wiz Posted November 12, 2015 Author Share Posted November 12, 2015 The Wiz is good, no doubt about it. Still, last year's results began to mirror Sagarin's so closely, I just figure he actually is Jeff Sagarin. Anyone ever seen The Wiz and Sagarin at the same place and same time? Didn't think so. I think Old Guy is on to something.......Correlation isn't proof. You haven't seen me with Jim Crews...but that doesn't mean I am him .......or does it? As for Sagarin, I have spoke with him (by email)...We do some things similar...some things different and some things he keeps secret ( he uses the word ...proprietary) Bottomline we are frequently close. But then sometimes I am close to KenPom. And then sometimes KenPom is close to Sagarin. Maybe KenPom is Sagarin. Has anyone seen the 2 of them together? I am also close to the bookie at Mandalay Bay but I couldn't be him cause I beat him more times than not. I think I will just stick to being The Wiz. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Wiz Posted November 12, 2015 Author Share Posted November 12, 2015 Out of curiosity what was the pre-seas rank heading into last year? Last year the Bills preseason grade was B. As I pointed out in the original post these can be sketchy predictions especially with the Bills coming off of an NCAA appearance and starting with a brand new team. By the time we completed game 6 (I only needed 6 games last year for enough data points) ...WSU again...we had fallen to D+....It is hard to fool the computer with real data. By the time we were ready to start A-10 play we had fallen to F+. At the end of the season, we finished at D-....a variance of only 1 from the beginning of conference play and a variance of 2 from the WSU.... on target with both predictions As I stated in the original post, check back on Dec 6 to see what kind of season it will be. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bonwich Posted November 12, 2015 Share Posted November 12, 2015 Do you give an F-? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Old guy Posted November 12, 2015 Share Posted November 12, 2015 I really do not think the computer gives letter grades, what the computer does is to give numerical representations of effectiveness, or probability, or failures, or anything else that is chosen as a measure to compare to other teams. These initial values are obtained from actual stats, at least the bulk of these results are. The comparison is done resulting in a ranking of the teams by result category. Then the matter of getting the letter grades becomes an exercise in how to blend the results obtained, giving appropriate (estimated) weightings to the factors thought to have greater impact on the overall results; re ranking the teams in terms of the composite values; and then placing rather arbitrary boundary levels to determine who is A, B, C, etc (including + and -). As you see, from this point of view there are a lot of areas in this type of exercise that require the application of estimated or arbitrary values. Methods like the one described can obtain results that closely approximate reality (the closeness of the approximation being dependent upon the the accuracy of the estimated values chosen). It is a fascinating exercise in the modeling of a truly complex system, with the accuracy of the results dependent ultimately in how accurate the operator (Wiz or anyone else) is in estimating the arbitrary parameters used. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Wiz Posted November 12, 2015 Author Share Posted November 12, 2015 I really do not think the computer gives letter grades, what the computer does is to give numerical representations of effectiveness, or probability, or failures, or anything else that is chosen as a measure to compare to other teams. These initial values are obtained from actual stats, at least the bulk of these results are. The comparison is done resulting in a ranking of the teams by result category. Then the matter of getting the letter grades becomes an exercise in how to blend the results obtained, giving appropriate (estimated) weightings to the factors thought to have greater impact on the overall results; re ranking the teams in terms of the composite values; and then placing rather arbitrary boundary levels to determine who is A, B, C, etc (including + and -). As you see, from this point of view there are a lot of areas in this type of exercise that require the application of estimated or arbitrary values. Methods like the one described can obtain results that closely approximate reality (the closeness of the approximation being dependent upon the the accuracy of the estimated values chosen). It is a fascinating exercise in the modeling of a truly complex system, with the accuracy of the results dependent ultimately in how accurate the operator (Wiz or anyone else) is in estimating the arbitrary parameters used. To summarize..... A quick and easy way to compare teams and figure out who is good and bad using the data. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Wiz Posted November 12, 2015 Author Share Posted November 12, 2015 Do you give an F-? Yes there is an F-. But not until last year. Up until last year I categorized all the teams and threw the leftovers in to the F category.However, when the Bills slipped into the abyss last season I realized I needed to define that category a bit more. After all, even at our weakest point last year, we were still way ahead of Grambling St. ...Thus F+ and F- were added to the mix. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bonwich Posted November 12, 2015 Share Posted November 12, 2015 To summarize..... A quick and easy way to compare teams and figure out who is good and bad using the data. And if we get a few more wins under our belt, you'll start to see our record improve. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
slufanskip Posted November 12, 2015 Share Posted November 12, 2015 And if we get a few more wins under our belt, you'll start to see our record improve. I don't think you'll have to wait a few wins. I have a feeling it'll improve with every win Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
billikenbill Posted November 12, 2015 Share Posted November 12, 2015 Now that the real games are just a few days away, thought I'd take a guess at the distribution of minutes for the 11 players who have a chance to be in the rotation. This assumes no missed games d/t injuries or other reasons a player could miss a game. I think Crews is going to use a 10 or 11 man rotation again as there just isn't much difference in the talent level of players at similar positions. Rather than worrying about players not having enough time to get into the flow of the game, I'm saying that the emphasis will be on keeping players fresh, hoping to wear down teams who have shorter rotations. Granted, that didn't work last year but at least it's a reasonable theory. So I've got it this way: AY - 25(I'm going with 8mpg at the two and 17mpg at the 3) DR - 24 MB - 22 MR -14 JB - 12 MY - 26 MC - 23 RA - 14 MN - 20 AG - 15 BJ - 5 (more for filling in when bigs get in foul trouble than anything) Thoughts? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
majerus mojo Posted November 12, 2015 Share Posted November 12, 2015 Last year the Bills preseason grade was B. As I pointed out in the original post these can be sketchy predictions especially with the Bills coming off of an NCAA appearance and starting with a brand new team. By the time we completed game 6 (I only needed 6 games last year for enough data points) ...WSU again...we had fallen to D+....It is hard to fool the computer with real data. By the time we were ready to start A-10 play we had fallen to F+. At the end of the season, we finished at D-....a variance of only 1 from the beginning of conference play and a variance of 2 from the WSU.... on target with both predictions As I stated in the original post, check back on Dec 6 to see what kind of season it will be. Nice, appreciate it Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoosierPal Posted November 12, 2015 Share Posted November 12, 2015 Now that the real games are just a few days away, thought I'd take a guess at the distribution of minutes for the 11 players who have a chance to be in the rotation. This assumes no missed games d/t injuries or other reasons a player could miss a game. I think Crews is going to use a 10 or 11 man rotation again as there just isn't much difference in the talent level of players at similar positions. Rather than worrying about players not having enough time to get into the flow of the game, I'm saying that the emphasis will be on keeping players fresh, hoping to wear down teams who have shorter rotations. Granted, that didn't work last year but at least it's a reasonable theory. So I've got it this way: AY - 25(I'm going with 8mpg at the two and 17mpg at the 3) DR - 24 MB - 22 MR -14 JB - 12 MY - 26 MC - 23 RA - 14 MN - 20 AG - 15 BJ - 5 (more for filling in when bigs get in foul trouble than anything) Thoughts? You pretty much copied last year's minutes for the nine returning players, which were as follows. Yacoubou 26 Yarbrough 24 Roby 25 Crawford 19 Bartley 19 Gillmann 15 Agbeko 14 Reynolds 13 Jolly 11 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
billikenbill Posted November 12, 2015 Share Posted November 12, 2015 You pretty much copied last year's minutes for the nine returning players, which were as follows. Yacoubou 26 Yarbrough 24 Roby 25 Crawford 19 Bartley 19 Gillmann 15 Agbeko 14 Reynolds 13 Jolly 11 Nice coincidence. I based it partly on mins. played in the Bahamas, the exhibition game, and a guess at what each player's potential is to progress throughout the year. Would've been more complicated if "The Beast" wasn't sitting out the year with his unfortunate foot injury. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Old guy Posted November 12, 2015 Share Posted November 12, 2015 "The Beast"? Is this Welmer? Does not look to beastly to me. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
billikenbill Posted November 13, 2015 Share Posted November 13, 2015 "The Beast"? Is this Welmer? Does not look to beastly to me. Dang right, he'll be a beast before he's through. I'm president and ceo of the Elliott Welmer fan club. He's got way more upside potential than people thought when he committed. I think he's going to surprise people with his game. Too bad we have to wait a year to see if it happens. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bonwich Posted November 13, 2015 Share Posted November 13, 2015 Dang right, he'll be a beast before he's through. I'm president and ceo of the Elliott Welmer fan club. He's got way more upside potential than people thought when he committed. I think he's going to surprise people with his game. Too bad we have to wait a year to see if it happens. He needs to find something better than that mini-trike as an ambulatory support. No self-respecting werewolf would ever be seen prancing around on one of those. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Old guy Posted November 13, 2015 Share Posted November 13, 2015 Mini trike or not, I do hope you are right billikenbill. I do hope you are right. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Old guy Posted November 13, 2015 Share Posted November 13, 2015 Going back to the main theme of this thread, please remember that we have to establish some kind of a trend, or at least a base before our performance for this year can be analyzed properly. The first fiew games will be fun because of this. As far as Team Rankings is concerned, Hartford has better (not by much) stats than we do, but these are the stats from last year. They have us as favorites to win on Sunday by 68% so far. We will see. This first game rolls the stats into a new blank page, Let's hope we win this one to start the season properly. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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