Thoughts on maximizing offensive efficiency

[GW]

I was thinking about next year's lineup, focusing on the offense. Some have suggested our best lineup would consist of our theoretical (if Loe develops as expected) best 4 offensive players- thus Mitchell, Reed, Ellis and Loe. Considering offense only, this has merit- but then we have the issue of playing Ellis at the 3. It's been suggested that perhaps we would play some zone in this scenario or only do it when the opposing team has an Ellis-like 3 (meaning someone that Ellis could defend). Maybe this would be viable- then again, Majerus isn't a big fan of the zone and if the other team had a 3 which Ellis could gaurd, then perhaps he would look to play Evans or someone to exploit the advantage rather than simply countering with Ellis. I am now approaching it from the angle that it may be more valuable to play Ellis and Loe seperately rather than together. I am looking at Ellis and Loe as being... interchangable parts. The big man who can roam the perimeter, pulling out his post defender, and shoot the 3. This is very valuable in Majerus' system and is why both were coveted. They are so valuable, that I believe it is important to have one on the floor at all times as they make the team better. Assuming that each will play about 25 minutes a game... if one or the other was always on the floor, then that would be an overlap of only 10 minutes a game where both were playing together. My opinion is that an ideal use of this overlap time would be when Willie is not in the game. Loe could then play center and Ellis could still be the 4. You still have your post presence with Loe, and the shooting big with Ellis. If this is how it plays out, Ellis never has to play the 3.

To quantify the value of the "shooting big", I tried to gauge Ellis' contribution this past season. It's obvious to all of us that the team was much improved after Ellis arrived and their record backs it up. But how valuable? I found it interesting when looking at Ellis' stats for the season that his 3 point % was only 30% and his PPS (points per shot) was 1.10. To put this in perspective, the 3% was the 4th best on the team and the pps was the 6th best (not including Young). The team averages were 31.9% from 3 and 1.21 pps. Ellis was "below average" in both categories. Granted he arrived late and was possibly injured and fatigued. Still, for someone to have made such a noticable impact on the team- you would expect something more than "below average" production. Ok, so maybe some are thinking "well, he was an extra body that added to our depth- this explains his value being more than his stats show". And there is some merit to that- we definately needed an extra body... Still, I believe he added value beyond providing extra minutes of below average offensive production. I noticed on Timmerman's season ending plus/minus numbers that Ellis really stood out. He finished with the highest number per 100 minutes played (discounting Reid) and twice the overall number of the next closest in conference season/postseason (+96- Wille was next at +43). How does one lead the team in plus/minus while being a statistically below average offensive player? He had to have added value with either his defense or by making the rest of the team better. I propose that it is more of the latter- that his skill set of being a perimeter threat and pulling out one of the opposing team's post players to gaurd him, softened the opposing team's defense (more 1 on 1's for Willie, easier drives for Mitchell and others, etc.) and the net result was a better team. Where I'm going with this is that if the "ellis effect" makes the team better beyond his individual contribution alone.... then would we not want to maximize that effect by having either Ellis or the new taller Ellis named Loe on the floor at all times? If that's the case, then they won't be playing together very much and the few times they are together, if it is done in combination with a rest period for Willie, then we gain all the benefits of the "ellis effect" without having to expose Ellis to defending a 3.

[jimbofive]

I was thinking about next year's lineup, focusing on the offense. Some have suggested our best lineup would consist of our theoretical (if Loe develops as expected) best 4 offensive players- thus Mitchell, Reed, Ellis and Loe. Considering offense only, this has merit- but then we have the issue of playing Ellis at the 3. It's been suggested that perhaps we would play some zone in this scenario or only do it when the opposing team has an Ellis-like 3 (meaning someone that Ellis could defend). Maybe this would be viable- then again, Majerus isn't a big fan of the zone and if the other team had a 3 which Ellis could gaurd, then perhaps he would look to play Evans or someone to exploit the advantage rather than simply countering with Ellis. I am now approaching it from the angle that it may be more valuable to play Ellis and Loe seperately rather than together. I am looking at Ellis and Loe as being... interchangable parts. The big man who can roam the perimeter, pulling out his post defender, and shoot the 3. This is very valuable in Majerus' system and is why both were coveted. They are so valuable, that I believe it is important to have one on the floor at all times as they make the team better. Assuming that each will play about 25 minutes a game... if one or the other was always on the floor, then that would be an overlap of only 5 minutes a game where both were playing together. My opinion is that an ideal use of this overlap time would be when Willie is not in the game. Loe could then play center and Ellis could still be the 4. You still have your post presence with Loe, and the shooting big with Ellis. If this is how it plays out, Ellis never has to play the 3.

To quantify the value of the "shooting big", I tried to gauge Ellis' contribution this past season. It's obvious to all of us that the team was much improved after Ellis arrived and their record backs it up. But how valuable? I found it interesting when looking at Ellis' stats for the season that his 3 point % was only 30% and his PPS (points per shot) was 1.10. To put this in perspective, the 3% was the 4th best on the team and the pps was the 6th best (not including Young). The team averages were 31.9% from 3 and 1.21 pps. Ellis was "below average" in both categories. Granted he arrived late and was possibly injured and fatigued. Still, for someone to have made such a noticable impact on the team- you would expect something more than "below average" production. Ok, so maybe some are thinking "well, he was an extra body that added to our depth- this explains his value being more than his stats show". And there is some merit to that- we definately needed an extra body... Still, I believe he added value beyond providing extra minutes of below average offensive production. I noticed on Timmerman's season ending plus/minus numbers that Ellis really stood out. He finished with the highest number per 100 minutes played (discounting Reid) and twice the overall number of the next closest in conference season/postseason (+96- Wille was next at +43). How does one lead the team in plus/minus while being a statistically below average offensive player? He had to have added value with either his defense or by making the rest of the team better. I propose that it is more of the latter- that his skill set of being a perimeter threat and pulling out one of the opposing team's post players to gaurd him, softened the opposing team's defense (more 1 on 1's for Willie, easier drives for Mitchell and others, etc.) and the net result was a better team. Where I'm going with this is that if the "ellis effect" makes the team better beyond his individual contribution alone.... then would we not want to maximize that effect by having either Ellis or the new taller Ellis named Loe on the floor at all times? If that's the case, then they won't be playing together very much and the few times they are together, if it is done in combination with a rest period for Willie, then we gain all the benefits of the "ellis effect" without having to expose Ellis to defending a 3.

monster analysis, playboy. i concur concurrently.

[brianstl]

We should wait until Ellis has a full year in the offseason program before we try to judge in anyway his ability to play the three. He started playing with no prep time at all in our offense or defense in addition to no real coditioning program. You are putting way too much stock into Ellis's numbers from last season without taking into consideration any of things that negatively impacted his performance that were out of his or the team's control. I expeect to see a total different Ellis next season and I am pretty shocked that he was as effective as he was this past season.

[GW]

We should wait until Ellis has a full year in the offseason program before we try to judge in anyway his ability to play the three. He started playing with no prep time at all in our offense or defense in addition to no real coditioning program. You are putting way too much stock into Ellis's numbers from last season without taking into consideration any of things that negatively impacted his performance that were out of his or the team's control. I expeect to see a total different Ellis next season and I am pretty shocked that he was as effective as he was this past season.

Perhaps Ellis will develop into a 3. Didn't Majerus say something to the effect that the 3 is where he would maximize his long term potential? There is more of a "need" now at the 3 with the only true 3 being Evans and thus there is something to be said about how this would help balance the team... If this happens, and it works out great. Still, if Ellis starts at the 3 and Loe starts at the 4 and they are playing the bulk of their minutes together- we are losing the value that a shooting big adds to the team when neither is on the floor. Is it more valuable to have 2 shooting bigs at the same time often and have long stretches with none of them or have at least 1 all the time with short stretches of 2 at the same time? Also, consider that some of Ellis' value as a shooting big is lost if he plays as a 3. If he plays as a 3, the opposing teams 3 will probably be gaurding him. Having the opposing team's 3 gaurding someone on the perimeter is a normal expectation- Ellis playing the 3 is probably not going to pull the 4 out which is kind of the beauty of his current skill set. Granted, this isn't an issue if Loe is playing at the same time... It would probably work best if Ellis only played the 3 when Loe was playing with him to keep the shooting big threat available.

If the Ellis at the 3 plan is the way they go and it doesn't work out for whatever reason- I think its nice that the "fallback position" doesn't look too bad... having 2 shooting bigs and trying to figure out whats best to do with them is a very nice problem to have.

[Billikenbooster]

Perhaps Ellis will develop into a 3. Didn't Majerus say something to the effect that the 3 is where he would maximize his long term potential? There is more of a "need" now at the 3 with the only true 3 being Evans and thus there is something to be said about how this would help balance the team... If this happens, and it works out great. Still, if Ellis starts at the 3 and Loe starts at the 4 and they are playing the bulk of their minutes together- we are losing the value that a shooting big adds to the team when neither is on the floor. Is it more valuable to have 2 shooting bigs at the same time often and have long stretches with none of them or have at least 1 all the time with short stretches of 2 at the same time? Also, consider that some of Ellis' value as a shooting big is lost if he plays as a 3. If he plays as a 3, the opposing teams 3 will probably be gaurding him. Having the opposing team's 3 gaurding someone on the perimeter is a normal expectation- Ellis playing the 3 is probably not going to pull the 4 out which is kind of the beauty of his current skill set. Granted, this isn't an issue if Loe is playing at the same time... It would probably work best if Ellis only played the 3 when Loe was playing with him to keep the shooting big threat available.

If the Ellis at the 3 plan is the way they go and it doesn't work out for whatever reason- I think its nice that the "fallback position" doesn't look too bad... having 2 shooting bigs and trying to figure out whats best to do with them is a very nice problem to have.

Make Free Throws! Probably would have won us a couple of games.

mhg

[bsheldon]

Having depth and options definitely has to have RM drooling just a bit to get the season started. Beyond just having bodies, we have many QUALITY options. Think about the next group of guys that you don't even have starting: KC, CS, CR, JS, JJ, & BC--those guys would compete nicely with many of the starting line-ups that SLU has put on the floor over the past 20 years. This doesn't even consider the new kids RM has coming in--we really don't know how well MM or DE are going to take to his system and the speed of the D1 game, but both look like the real deal. Heck, we could add FJ to the mix as well.

I bet we will see many different mixes of line-ups--all with varying skill sets, strengths and weaknesses. The value of shooting bigs absolutely adds to the complexity and flexibility of all of those options.

One thing is for sure--it will be fun to watch.

[brianstl]

Perhaps Ellis will develop into a 3. Didn't Majerus say something to the effect that the 3 is where he would maximize his long term potential? There is more of a "need" now at the 3 with the only true 3 being Evans and thus there is something to be said about how this would help balance the team... If this happens, and it works out great. Still, if Ellis starts at the 3 and Loe starts at the 4 and they are playing the bulk of their minutes together- we are losing the value that a shooting big adds to the team when neither is on the floor. Is it more valuable to have 2 shooting bigs at the same time often and have long stretches with none of them or have at least 1 all the time with short stretches of 2 at the same time? Also, consider that some of Ellis' value as a shooting big is lost if he plays as a 3. If he plays as a 3, the opposing teams 3 will probably be gaurding him. Having the opposing team's 3 gaurding someone on the perimeter is a normal expectation- Ellis playing the 3 is probably not going to pull the 4 out which is kind of the beauty of his current skill set. Granted, this isn't an issue if Loe is playing at the same time... It would probably work best if Ellis only played the 3 when Loe was playing with him to keep the shooting big threat available.

If the Ellis at the 3 plan is the way they go and it doesn't work out for whatever reason- I think its nice that the "fallback position" doesn't look too bad... having 2 shooting bigs and trying to figure out whats best to do with them is a very nice problem to have.

Except Ellis can now also post up the three guard him.

[Quality Is Job 1]

Having depth and options definitely has to have RM drooling just a bit to get the season started. Beyond just having bodies, we have many QUALITY options. Think about the next group of guys that you don't even have starting: KC, CS, CR, JS, JJ, & BK--those guys would compete nicely with many of the starting line-ups that SLU has put on the floor over the past 20 years. This doesn't even consider the new kids RM has coming in--we really don't know how well MM or DE are going to take to his system and the speed of the D1 game, but both look like the real deal. Heck, we could add FJ to the mix as well.

I bet we will see many different mixes of line-ups--all with varying skill sets, strengths and weaknesses. The value of shooting bigs absolutely adds to the complexity and flexibility of all of those options.

One thing is for sure--it will be fun to watch.

I was wracking my brain trying to figure out who BK is, but then it hit me that you are referring to Brian Conklin.

[b.hayes]

I was wracking my brain trying to figure out who BK is, but then it hit me that you are referring to Brian Conklin.

I saw Absurd_Bills_fan quoted earlier, but I didn't realize it was youuuuu. What's up with the name change?

[SluSignGuy]

I saw Absurd_Bills_fan quoted earlier, but I didn't realize it was youuuuu. What's up with the name change?

I actually had thought someone had hacked ABF's account....He used thicks for over 10 years!

[milwaukeebill]

this name change is really throwin me off...

[Billiken4life5]

Speaking of depth...has anyone heard if RM is planning on adding any more walk ons besides Darin? Obviously they'd never see the floor but never hurts to have fresh bodies for practice.

[Hawk]

Speaking of depth...has anyone heard if RM is planning on adding any more walk ons besides Darin? Obviously they'd never see the floor but never hurts to have fresh bodies for practice.

I remember him in an interview somewhere saying they were bringing a guy in to walk on.

[bsheldon]

I was wracking my brain trying to figure out who BK is, but then it hit me that you are referring to Brian Conklin.

Sorry about the Type-O. It is fixed now.

[bsheldon]

I remember him in an interview somewhere saying they were bringing a guy in to walk on.

Is this true? Does anyone have any info on this?

[Guest BillikenReport]

Is this true? Does anyone have any info on this?

It is possible they will bring in another walk-on. I know the coaches love Darrin Young and are hoping that he returns.

As far as the shooting stats on Cody Ellis mentioned early, don't forget that his 3-point shooting percentage went down quite a bit at the end of the season when it was obvious he was exhausted and didn't have much left.

I expect him to be a much better shooter in the future when he's had more time to get in basketball shape and get stronger.

[jimbofive]

I remember him in an interview somewhere saying they were bringing a guy in to walk on.

YEAH, THAT ######'S TRUE!!! I'MA WALK ON MAJERUS' BACK WHILE SHITTING IN TOWELS TO SAVE TIME. THAT LOCKER ROOM'S GONNA BE A WELL-OILED MACHINE, JUST LIKE RM'S LOWER INTESTINE. SCREW MAX BANCHY, THEY CALL ME HIGH LIFE.

[AnkielBreakers]

I was thinking about next year's lineup, focusing on the offense. Some have suggested our best lineup would consist of our theoretical (if Loe develops as expected) best 4 offensive players- thus Mitchell, Reed, Ellis and Loe. Considering offense only, this has merit- but then we have the issue of playing Ellis at the 3. It's been suggested that perhaps we would play some zone in this scenario or only do it when the opposing team has an Ellis-like 3 (meaning someone that Ellis could defend). Maybe this would be viable- then again, Majerus isn't a big fan of the zone and if the other team had a 3 which Ellis could gaurd, then perhaps he would look to play Evans or someone to exploit the advantage rather than simply countering with Ellis. I am now approaching it from the angle that it may be more valuable to play Ellis and Loe seperately rather than together. I am looking at Ellis and Loe as being... interchangable parts. The big man who can roam the perimeter, pulling out his post defender, and shoot the 3. This is very valuable in Majerus' system and is why both were coveted. They are so valuable, that I believe it is important to have one on the floor at all times as they make the team better. Assuming that each will play about 25 minutes a game... if one or the other was always on the floor, then that would be an overlap of only 10 minutes a game where both were playing together. My opinion is that an ideal use of this overlap time would be when Willie is not in the game. Loe could then play center and Ellis could still be the 4. You still have your post presence with Loe, and the shooting big with Ellis. If this is how it plays out, Ellis never has to play the 3.

To quantify the value of the "shooting big", I tried to gauge Ellis' contribution this past season. It's obvious to all of us that the team was much improved after Ellis arrived and their record backs it up. But how valuable? I found it interesting when looking at Ellis' stats for the season that his 3 point % was only 30% and his PPS (points per shot) was 1.10. To put this in perspective, the 3% was the 4th best on the team and the pps was the 6th best (not including Young). The team averages were 31.9% from 3 and 1.21 pps. Ellis was "below average" in both categories. Granted he arrived late and was possibly injured and fatigued. Still, for someone to have made such a noticable impact on the team- you would expect something more than "below average" production. Ok, so maybe some are thinking "well, he was an extra body that added to our depth- this explains his value being more than his stats show". And there is some merit to that- we definately needed an extra body... Still, I believe he added value beyond providing extra minutes of below average offensive production. I noticed on Timmerman's season ending plus/minus numbers that Ellis really stood out. He finished with the highest number per 100 minutes played (discounting Reid) and twice the overall number of the next closest in conference season/postseason (+96- Wille was next at +43). How does one lead the team in plus/minus while being a statistically below average offensive player? He had to have added value with either his defense or by making the rest of the team better. I propose that it is more of the latter- that his skill set of being a perimeter threat and pulling out one of the opposing team's post players to gaurd him, softened the opposing team's defense (more 1 on 1's for Willie, easier drives for Mitchell and others, etc.) and the net result was a better team. Where I'm going with this is that if the "ellis effect" makes the team better beyond his individual contribution alone.... then would we not want to maximize that effect by having either Ellis or the new taller Ellis named Loe on the floor at all times? If that's the case, then they won't be playing together very much and the few times they are together, if it is done in combination with a rest period for Willie, then we gain all the benefits of the "ellis effect" without having to expose Ellis to defending a 3.

You have some interesting points. However, I think you are missing an important aspect of having Ellis, Loe, and WR on the floor together. When Loe and Ellis are on the floor (with WR), Ellis will have a mismatch against most 3's that are forced to guard him. Therefore, when Loe is on the perimeter and a 4/5 has to step outside to guard him, it opens up Ellis to post up his man. Also, if the other team switches the guarding assignments between Loe and Ellis, then Loe can go inside on an obvious mismatch. At the same time, both Loe and Ellis will have a size mismatch on the outside against whoever is guarding them and may be able to shoot over the top. One other thing to note, Loe has shown a consistent and impressive ability to drive that few 4/5 players are going to be able to stop, which could leave mismatches on the inside, or open shots on the collapsed defense.

The effect may be that most teams are forced to play a zone against us, which plays right into the hands of a team with some slashers (KM, KC, and potentially MM) and some solid exterior shooting (CE, RL, JJ, KM).

Defensively, I am not worried about Ellis guarding a 3, he seemed surprisingly quick for player of his size. His physique reminded me of Luke Walton, who I believe plays the 3. He just needs to get better conditioned and more toned down.

(Also, as a side note, don't forget that JS can guard the 3 pretty well. If he develops, he could add another dimension to this team)

Any way you stack it up, this team has the potential to be really exciting next year.