kwyjibo Posted February 19, 2004 Share Posted February 19, 2004 IF SLU wins out and there were no conference tournaments I project that SLU would have an RPI rank of 49. That is significantly higher than past projections (our opponents have been improving as a whole) and note that I would project them at RPI rank 69 if they lose just one game. Therefore, the good news is that SLU would get at large berth (winning out could mean 5 top top wins with up to 3 on the road) IF they win out. The bad news is there is no margin of error. There will likely be a large grouping of teams on the high bubble (RPI rank 45-70); so for these teams' profiles will be the difference maker and relative rank will be less important. Even if SLU does not make a run it will be a contentious year for the committee. The role of the conference tournament will obviously come into play but I will wait to make formal estimates on that. I would guess a 6-2 finish (4-1, 2-1) would create a possible at large as well (particularly if one or two of those wins are top 50's on the road). SLU does have an opportunity to create a lock solid profile but it would mean tough victories in difficult places. Our NIT chances rest simply on winning two more games so that does look very doable. A good finish would get us a chance to play at home (although Savvis availability would come into play then). Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
billiken_roy Posted February 19, 2004 Share Posted February 19, 2004 49 would put us on the bubble. it looks like those that swore only 5 losses would guarantee a spot in the tourney were wrong. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kwyjibo Posted February 19, 2004 Author Share Posted February 19, 2004 I said 11-5 would be unlikely because it would depend on profile and our RPI rank was projected in the 60's. Now the rank for 11-5 is projected to be 49 so it sounds better. However, there is very little numerical difference between the 49 and 60 in the projections right now. There will be a big log jam (bigger than usual) for the last 5-6 at large bids whether SLU is involved or not so the committee will have a lot to contend with. I do like SLU's chances if they are in that log jam because to get there they would have to win several big games down the stretch and that will make a nice profile. That is a HUGE if right now, but it is possible. Certainly a lot more possible than the IFs surrounding Washington down the stretch. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kshoe Posted February 19, 2004 Share Posted February 19, 2004 believing your numbers. I know you have a spreadsheet that seemingly does this well, but we have moved up about 25 spots simply because of the last two wins. Wins over Cinci and Louisville would have a greater impact. Add in wins over Depaul and the other two and it would be a slight positive. Now, I realize part of the reason we've moved up is other teams we've played in the past have been winning and I also realize its easier to move from 98 to 73 than it is 73 to 48. Still, I think there is something wrong in your calculation. Still I think the point is mute as I think we will go 3-2 or 2-3 over the next 5 games. There is no game that is not winnable but we could lose any game except for maybe Houston. You can't expect us to win every close game. As for B-Roy saying 49 is not a lock. The RPI is a measuring stick but if we finished the season 11-5 in conference, with quality wins over Dayton, Charlotte, Cinci and Louisville in additiona to Depaul and Marquette with a total record of 18-9 and a top 4 (or 5) finish in CUSA we would be in. Guaranteed. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cheesycow Posted February 19, 2004 Share Posted February 19, 2004 If the bills were 6th in the conference with a 9-7 conference record and an rpi of 49 they're definitely a bubble team, more than likely NIT bound- but at 11-5 and 4th in the conference with 4 quality wins the bills are in. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
3star_recruit Posted February 19, 2004 Share Posted February 19, 2004 Cinci, Louisville, Memphis, UAB and Charlotte have done enough to get in. The only way this league gets a sixth bid is if Depaul keeps on winning. We're too far back to make a move at this late stage. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
slu72 Posted February 19, 2004 Share Posted February 19, 2004 I'd have to say finishing 18-9, which would be the best finish in Bills history as far as I'm concerned, plus a couple of tourney wins to get us to 20-10 would give us all sweaty palms come Selection Sunday. Going 5-0 the rest of the way though is highly doubtful given our current offensive woes. I did say earlier in the year we had to win at RuePaul to have any shot, now we've got to win at Cincy as well and beat UL here, and take the two apparent cupcakes. Which as long time loyal Bills fan we all know there are no cupcakes. Hello NIT, but please make me eat my words. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cheeseman Posted February 19, 2004 Share Posted February 19, 2004 I don't disagree that we are probably not going to the NCAA - however, if Missouri having 18 wins - including two in the tourney is good enough - why would our 20 wins not be good enough? This is only a question - and I only use the Missouri example because of the Burwell article so calm down Cheeseycow I am not bashing any team. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cheesycow Posted February 19, 2004 Share Posted February 19, 2004 the difference is SOS. 18 wins for Missouri with a top 15 SOS is better than SLU's SOS as a result of the 4 crap teams scheduled while Reggie was out. Just on Win-Loss 20-10 is a great record, but then again just on Win-Loss Belmont is Tourney bound at 16-5. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cheeseman Posted February 19, 2004 Share Posted February 19, 2004 Cheesey - all valid points and good answers to my question. The problem is I am not sure that the Burwell article said anything about SOS - just about wins. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cheesycow Posted February 19, 2004 Share Posted February 19, 2004 Well, i'm not sure any of the PD's writers besides Vahe Gregorian understands the selection process. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
billiken_roy Posted February 19, 2004 Share Posted February 19, 2004 cheesycow is right on one thing here. the knowledge these sports writers, reporters and talking heads have about the selection process. i am amazed these guys make a living writing about this stuff and i swear the vast majority of posters on this board understand and have a better grasp for how the tourney is picked and who will get in and why. the last couple of nights on espn they have had a few features where a group of experts have commented on teams in, out, on the bubble,etc. i was amazed at some of the teams they were making arguments for and ones they were not even discussing. they listed uab as a bubbleteam? first off they have a 20's rpi. second, their remaining schedule is one of the easiest in the conference, thus they should have no problem protecting that ranking. bubble? no the real question is 5 seed or higher? they were trying to make a case for the pac 10 and the big 10 getting 6 teams each. oh brother. they dont deserve 6 teams between the two conferences. if this is these guys profession, would it hurt any of them to read a little to have a freaking clue? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kwyjibo Posted February 19, 2004 Author Share Posted February 19, 2004 Each win will have different impacts and each part of the rankings of RPI's has different slopes. It is much harder to climb the RPI the lower your ranking. It is not a simple linear thing. Also, wins over Cincy or Louisville could easily move up SLU 10-15 rankings but wins against Tulane/Houston will of themselves do little for SLU's ranking. So I have no idea why moving from the mid-70's to 49 is so hard to believe. What I do is not that complicated (but not that simple either). I simply use Gerry Palm's or Ken Pomeroy's projected final distribution of RPI's and then look at where SLU would fit IF they end the season at different records. Currently the projected final distribution has a cluster of teams in the 45-75 range (remember that the RPI is a number) so there is currently projected to be a lot of teams clumped together with very similar RPI's on the bubble (more than usual). That means the other criteria like top 50 wins and top 50 road wins will play to SLU's favor if they win out. Earlier it looked like an 11-5 record would put SLU in a lot less likely chance (but still on the bubble). Another way of looking at this is how things outside of SLU's control change (that is Projected SOS, their opponents record and their opponents' opponents record). This got a little worse for a while but has been improving lately. It has improved to the degree so that SLU now has a chance with 11-5 (this could change again but as the season goes on dramatic swings are less likely). I agree with you that SLU winning out is very unlikely, but it is at least possible. This is true for a lot of teams right now. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
billiken_roy Posted February 19, 2004 Share Posted February 19, 2004 to accent your thoughts here, i believe siu's rpi got worse today after beating lowly evansville last nite. at least that is what was reported on 1380 a little while ago during an rpi discussion. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quality Is Job 1 Posted February 20, 2004 Share Posted February 20, 2004 Mute - "silent, not speaking" Moot - "pointless" Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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