Louisville by 11 over the Bills

[The Wiz]

Great game last night. Tip o the Bills cap to Loe who had season highs in Reb (15) & D Reb (14)...not to mention some great shooting. Last night's game was picked most as an upset game in the brackets....Why? Because most thought NC St was underseeded. I would agree... makes the win even sweeter.

Now it is time to move on.

First of all let me say this is not a woe is us thread ...we have no chance. The purpose of all my spread threads are the same...to show how we can win games. With that said, Louisville can be beaten...and I will show how in this thread. This will be our biggest challenge of the season...it won't be easy but we can do it.

One of the things that was interesting in last night's Lville game was that Manhattan played a Bills style game at least from a numbers perspective. (take away one 3pt basket from the Jaspers and you are pretty close)....And yet Manhattan lost. The point is playing regular Bills ball is not going to work. In an earlier thread, I spoke about the need for the Bills to kick it up a notch....not to play average but to play good or great. Last night was better...between average and good...but again that won't be good enough to win. We need to play great to win against the Cards.

Here is what we need to do to win

Play great...this is what great looks like for the Bills....53%FG....38% 3pt....84% FT

3pt D....26%...5 made....15 att...2 of 3 categories

Score at least 65pts

Protect the ball...Lville is 2nd in the nation in steals (behind VCU)...No more than 9 TOs

We almost always win when

....we hold the opp to 4 or less 3's (19-2)

....Evans scores 11pts (7-1)

Everything above is doable...we have done it before ...we can do it again.

We just need to rise up and repeat what we have done before,

The Rise and Repeat of the Billikens

[majerus mojo]

Evans has only scored 11+ eight times? Wow.

[AlumniFan]

I'm pretty sure one of our posters told us we would be 25 point dogs to L'ville. Where is he now? The other lines I have seen are 9 points.

[The Wiz]

Evans has only scored 11+ eight times? Wow.

I almost didn't use the stat because the sample size was a bit small....but it gets harder to find "always win numbers" as the season goes on.

[JettFlight5]

I'm pretty sure one of our posters told us we would be 25 point dogs to L'ville. Where is he now? The other lines I have seen are 9 points.

So you're saying I'm not going to get SLU +24?

[AlumniFan]

So you're saying I'm not going to get SLU +24?

Well, from one guy you might!!!

[The Wiz]

So you're saying I'm not going to get SLU +24?

Lol...Well if someone gives you 24 it will be time to backup the Brinks truck and go all in.

[DD3]

Evans has only scored 11+ eight times? Wow.

Evans scored 11+ in 25 different games this year. Looks like our record was 21-4.

http://espn.go.com/mens-college-basketball/player/gamelog/_/id/51287/dwayne-evans

[MB73]

I'm pretty sure one of our posters told us we would be 25 point dogs to L'ville. Where is he now? The other lines I have seen are 9 points.

Then take SLU + 9, let me know how that works for you. We just beat the # 6 team in the ACC in OT.

There is lots of debate over Louisville, their conference is ???, SMU was shockingly left out, now Cincy gets beat by an Ivy League team, U Conn had to go to OT to win, and Louisville barely squeaked by Manhattan though they were not fired up and they were playing Pitino's pet, so opinions vary. It appears the league IS weak, based on initial results.

I like the one poster who never picks a game on here, then says he did great afterwards, yesterday he says he went 5-1. Impressive. I bet he had the Derby, Preakness, and Belmont winners, too. Ask him.

Here is a PR service that has served me well for many years, even after yesterday they maintain an incredibly high opinion of Louisville, as you will see. I am not so sure at this point that Louisville deserves this much credit. Do with it what you want.

http://www.statfox.com/cbb/power/

[The Wiz]

Evans scored 11+ in 25 different games this year. Looks like our record was 21-4.

http://espn.go.com/mens-college-basketball/player/gamelog/_/id/51287/dwayne-evans

You are correct....I ran it again and it still shows 7-1....but when I do it manually I come up with 24 (sorry Rockhurst doesn't count in my stats) ...so the correct figure is 20-4 when he scores 11 or more ....I should have caught that but not sleeping for 24 hours ...things can slip by...good catch

[hsmith19]

One of the things that was interesting in last night's Lville game was that Manhattan played a Bills style game at least from a numbers perspective. (take away one 3pt basket from the Jaspers and you are pretty close)....And yet Manhattan lost. The point is playing regular Bills ball is not going to work.

I think the Bills are better at playing a Bills-style game than the Jaspers. If you mean that we need to have a better than average statistical night to beat Louisville, I think that's obvious. But I don't think we have to drastically alter our approach or anything.

[hsmith19]

Then take SLU + 9, let me know how that works for you. We just beat the # 6 team in the ACC in OT.

There is lots of debate over Louisville, their conference is ???, SMU was shockingly left out, now Cincy gets beat by an Ivy League team, U Conn had to go to OT to win, and Louisville barely squeaked by Manhattan though they were not fired up and they were playing Pitino's pet, so opinions vary. It appears the league IS weak, based on initial results.

I like the one poster who never picks a game on here, then says he did great afterwards, yesterday he says he went 5-1. Impressive. I bet he had the Derby, Preakness, and Belmont winners, too. Ask him.

Here is a PR service that has served me well for many years, even after yesterday they maintain an incredibly high opinion of Louisville, as you will see. I am not so sure at this point that Louisville deserves this much credit. Do with it what you want.

http://www.statfox.com/cbb/power/

Hey MB--your Blue Devils sure are looking good today!

[shempie]

There was a good article in the WSJ Tuesday about why Louisville is "only"'a 4 seed. 5-5 against tournament teams with 3 of the 5 wins vs. 1 team, UConn. Lost to Memphis (twice) and SMU. They are beatable.

[For-DaLove]

Then take SLU + 9, let me know how that works for you. We just beat the # 6 team in the ACC in OT.

There is lots of debate over Louisville, their conference is ???, SMU was shockingly left out, now Cincy gets beat by an Ivy League team, U Conn had to go to OT to win, and Louisville barely squeaked by Manhattan though they were not fired up and they were playing Pitino's pet, so opinions vary. It appears the league IS weak, based on initial results.

I like the one poster who never picks a game on here, then says he did great afterwards, yesterday he says he went 5-1. Impressive. I bet he had the Derby, Preakness, and Belmont winners, too. Ask him.

Here is a PR service that has served me well for many years, even after yesterday they maintain an incredibly high opinion of Louisville, as you will see. I am not so sure at this point that Louisville deserves this much credit. Do with it what you want.

http://www.statfox.com/cbb/power/

You mean the same guy that basically hit this line on the head while you said it would be >15? The only reason I posted my success from yesterday was to show you how big of fool you can be. That doesn't matter. I don't need to post a list of the games I'm betting on every day to validate myself

And for your records I only bet on college basketball and a little college football. I don't know near enough about anything else

[The Wiz]

I think the Bills are better at playing a Bills-style game than the Jaspers. If you mean that we need to have a better than average statistical night to beat Louisville, I think that's obvious. But I don't think we have to drastically alter our approach or anything.

I think the Bills are better at playing a Bills-style game than the Jaspers. If you mean that we need to have a better than average statistical night to beat Louisville, I think that's obvious. But I don't think we have to drastically alter our approach or anything.

Yes, I was speaking statistically not actual style. The Jaspers play kind of a rough and tumble street style. They lead the nation in fouls/game. And I agree , the Bills need no major surgery ...we just need to do what we do better.

[Old guy]

As far as I am concerned, and I may very well be wrong in this, the predictive analysis we have been discussing are based on play statistics which are valid only as long as we (SLU) maintain the style of play we have had so far. I think the turning point in the game against NC State came when we started doing a full court press. Now, someone correct me if I am wrong, I have not seen SLU doing a full court press in any of the games I watched over at least the last two years. Let's say that a full court press is not a usual form of play for the Bills. The fact that we did a full court press successfully may have, and probably did, thrown NC State out of whack and created the conditions necessary for our win. Congratulations to coach Crews for his daring change of plan. When asked about this in a post game interview he said they had not practiced a full court press before the game, the players just did it when he asked them to.

Now, let's advance to the Louisville game. Yes, as long as we play as we always have we will have an uphill battle to win this game. Whether we lose by 9 or by 15 does not matter, because we lose and our true objective is to win. I wonder if we could turn this analysis around by trying new play forms which the opposing team is not expecting, like we did in the NC State game. Again, I am NOT a basketball professional and quite likely many of you will think I am totally out of base here. Fine will me, I would encourage coach Crews to continue trying new things against Louisville as he did against NC State. All is well that ends well. Our objective is to win, our objective is not to play in a certain predetermined way. I think coach Crews does understand this quite well as he showed last night. All the best and may the force be with you all.

[slu72]

Well, from one guy you might!!!

Check w/ Mudkat's bookie. He pays off when you lose.

[DD3]

Then take SLU + 9, let me know how that works for you. We just beat the # 6 team in the ACC in OT.

There is lots of debate over Louisville, their conference is ???, SMU was shockingly left out, now Cincy gets beat by an Ivy League team, U Conn had to go to OT to win, and Louisville barely squeaked by Manhattan though they were not fired up and they were playing Pitino's pet, so opinions vary. It appears the league IS weak, based on initial results.

I like the one poster who never picks a game on here, then says he did great afterwards, yesterday he says he went 5-1. Impressive. I bet he had the Derby, Preakness, and Belmont winners, too. Ask him.

Here is a PR service that has served me well for many years, even after yesterday they maintain an incredibly high opinion of Louisville, as you will see. I am not so sure at this point that Louisville deserves this much credit. Do with it what you want.

http://www.statfox.com/cbb/power/

That statfox thing is ridiculous. Using the formula they post, Louisville would be favored by 11 over Michigan State, by 9 over Arizona and Florida, etc. Vegas is not going to give those spreads.

[slu72]

As far as I am concerned, and I may very well be wrong in this, the predictive analysis we have been discussing are based on play statistics which are valid only as long as we (SLU) maintain the style of play we have had so far. I think the turning point in the game against NC State came when we started doing a full court press. Now, someone correct me if I am wrong, I have not seen SLU doing a full court press in any of the games I watched over at least the last two years. Let's say that a full court press is not a usual form of play for the Bills. The fact that we did a full court press successfully may have, and probably did, thrown NC State out of whack and created the conditions necessary for our win. Congratulations to coach Crews for his daring change of plan. When asked about this in a post game interview he said they had not practiced a full court press before the game, the players just did it when he asked them to.

Now, let's advance to the Louisville game. Yes, as long as we play as we always have we will have an uphill battle to win this game. Whether we lose by 9 or by 15 does not matter, because we lose and our true objective is to win. I wonder if we could turn this analysis around by trying new play forms which the opposing team is not expecting, like we did in the NC State game. Again, I am NOT a basketball professional and quite likely many of you will think I am totally out of base here. Fine will me, I would encourage coach Crews to continue trying new things against Louisville as he did against NC State. All is well that ends well. Our objective is to win, our objective is not to play in a certain predetermined way. I think coach Crews does understand this quite well as he showed last night. All the best and may the force be with you all.

JC had no other option last night. He had to press. Guaranteed, if NCST was up by only a bucket or two w/under 5 left, we would never have seen a press. Great call, but done out of extreme need to do it.

[Old guy]

Correct 72, but Crews did the right thing last night and it worked. I am worried about Louisville tomorrow, but less so since last night's game.

[moytoy12]

Then take SLU + 9, let me know how that works for you. We just beat the # 6 team in the ACC in OT.

There is lots of debate over Louisville, their conference is ???, SMU was shockingly left out, now Cincy gets beat by an Ivy League team, U Conn had to go to OT to win, and Louisville barely squeaked by Manhattan though they were not fired up and they were playing Pitino's pet, so opinions vary. It appears the league IS weak, based on initial results.

I like the one poster who never picks a game on here, then says he did great afterwards, yesterday he says he went 5-1. Impressive. I bet he had the Derby, Preakness, and Belmont winners, too. Ask him.

Here is a PR service that has served me well for many years, even after yesterday they maintain an incredibly high opinion of Louisville, as you will see. I am not so sure at this point that Louisville deserves this much credit. Do with it what you want.

http://www.statfox.com/cbb/power/

Wait, I'm confused, is Louisville 15-25+ better than SLU or are they not since they play in a weak conference?

Give me SLU +15 and make up whatever we are wagering on.

[AlumniFan]

Wait, I'm confused, is Louisville 15-25+ better than SLU or are they not since they play in a weak conference?

Give me SLU +15 and make up whatever we are wagering on.

+1

[hsmith19]

Hopefully MB placed his bets with Mudkat's bookie, so he collects on Duke covering their spread against Mercer today.

[For-DaLove]

Hopefully MB placed his bets with Mudkat's bookie, so he collects on Duke covering their spread against Mercer today.

Post of the year? I think so.

It's probably the same bookie that has Louisville -15

[jimmy two times]

Maybe Pitino will be groggy today because he was "closing down" the Tommy Bahama Restaurant in Orlando with a local gold digger last night while one of his assistant coaches watched the door. Dirtball.