TheA_Bomb Posted January 1, 2004 Share Posted January 1, 2004 Right now our RPI is at 133 (Ken Pomeroy site)CUSA is the #6 ranked conference. We are 6-4 with 17 games left. Last year we went 9-7 in conf. play and that looks realistic this year as well. If we beat KSU that will put us at 10-7 for those games with a record of 16-11 going into CUSA tourney. If we win 2 in the tourney we'll be on the bubble. We gotta defend the home court and steal a few on the road. Tough home games will be Charlotte, Marquette, Louisville. Winnable road games include TCU, DePaul, Tulane. If we could pull off another big road upset like the Cincy game last year it would help alot. Last year in conf. we were 6-2 at home and 3-5 away. There are 9 home games left all winnable. There are 8 road games left with the aforementioned 3 as the most likely for a win. If we went undefeated for the rest of the season we'd probably get a 3 seed that is the best scenario. However, it is doable we were so close last year and the player gotta remember that. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
billiken_roy Posted January 1, 2004 Share Posted January 1, 2004 i say 20 with a couple of tourney wins included in that 20. that would mean we would go 11-5 in conference play. tough task, but it will take that to get in since our bunnies were far easier than last year and butler and dayton are going to end up being lesser games than they were last year. also, we lose out on two games with cincy and louisville and they get replaced with the nascar opponents. still we have 2 each with marquette, charlotte and depaul, plus one each with louisville, memphis, and cincy. thus going the rest of the way in conference play with only 5 losses, would mean we had to win a few of these big games. that should make up for it. 9-7 or less means we basically beat who we are "supposed to" beat and lose to the above teams. that has nit written all over it. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kshoe Posted January 1, 2004 Share Posted January 1, 2004 10-6 in conference may be good enough. This of course assumes a win over K-State which is never guaranteed. 10-6 is doable but it will be tough. I hope we will win 7 conference games (we will falter somewhere and to expect perfection is a lot) meaning we need 3 road wins. TCU and Tulane jump out at you as games we need to win. And then you've got a bunch of games that maybe you can steal. Depaul is an obvious candidate considering their recent home struggles with teams like SEMO. A game I think we could steal is Marquette. They look a lot like Dayton to me in that they have a very nice record but most of their wins have been unimpressive (games like Canisius). I think that one is there for the taking. Plus I am going to that game so I'd love to steal it. Of course I could also see this team going 6-10 in conference and fighting for .500 around CUSA tourney time. The fact is none of us know what kind of a team we have yet but unlike past years we haven't had any losses that are just ridiculous like seasons past. Lets beat up on the Big 12 this Saturday and go from there. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aj_arete Posted January 1, 2004 Share Posted January 1, 2004 Let's try to establish a pattern of losing from them before relegating them to NIT or less status. I'd be surprised if they don't finish in the top 3 of the A-10 and won't go to the NCAA again. I believe that was a great win for the Bills, so cherish it. As Brad pointed out in the paper, he sold out to stop their inside game and let them have many open looks on the perimeter. Who knows, they might knock down those open looks if they played SLU again. Plus, this was A VERY RARE GAME where the home team DIDN'T GET TO THE FREE THROW LINE much at all. I wouldn't expect to see that for SLU in most road games. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aj_arete Posted January 1, 2004 Share Posted January 1, 2004 their remaining non-conference games, I think 10 or 11 conference wins, plus a tourney win, would get them in the NCAA. If they win 10 or 11 conference games, I'm sure a few of them will be quality wins with strong teams such as Cincy, Marquette, Louisville, UAB, etc. I'd be shocked, but very pleased, if it happened. I still don't see SLU winning many road games with their present team and think the Dayton win was an aberration. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kshoe Posted January 1, 2004 Share Posted January 1, 2004 he said they aren't going to be as good as last year. They were a 4 seed in the NCAA tourney last year! Do you think they are going to accomplish that again? Check out their RPI and their margin of victory this year. Its not impressive. They may make the NCAA tourney (I certainly hope they do for the benefit to SLU's RPI and the NCAA money that will go into the A-10 coffers) but I'd lay heavy odds they aren't a 4 seed or better. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kshoe Posted January 1, 2004 Share Posted January 1, 2004 with 10 conference wins? Maybe surprised but shocked is a little much. Don't forget we only play Louisville and Cinci once this year and the past two years the Bills have won 9 conference games. As I said above, win 7 home games and win 3 on the road. Wins at TCU and Tulane are attainable which means you only need one "abberation" against the likes of Marq., Charlotte, UAB, Memphis, Depaul or Cinci. It can be done. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aj_arete Posted January 1, 2004 Share Posted January 1, 2004 They might only lose 2 or 3 times at home, but I still don't see this team winning many road games at all. Unless Frericks or Ian step up big time, SLU will still have trouble winning the FT attempt battle on the road. I am pleased that Fisher and Bryant appear to be attacking the basket more, but I wonder if that will be enough. I still see SLU finishing around .500 in conference play. That's not bad, given their talent level. I fully expect 10 or more wins in the next few years, but let's be patient. Brad needs more time to replenish the talent pool at SLU. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aj_arete Posted January 1, 2004 Share Posted January 1, 2004 in the NCAA tourney, it's a quality win in my book. Especially when you consider it's on the road... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
billiken_roy Posted January 2, 2004 Share Posted January 2, 2004 i think that the team is better than what i expected pre-season. i am much more confident about our inside guys. frericks definitely is an upgrade of kenny brown. maybe not quite as good defensively, but he will more than offset that with his offense and even rebounding. if tom stays out of foul trouble, he is a really nice player. hell, the last two games have been "all-conference" like. it is very encouraging that izik has decided to play defense apparently. plus we know he has a lot to give us offensively yet. so upside galore there maybe. last you do have ian entering the mix which should take some minutes from ross and enable ross to be more effective as a respite sub. overall, i like the look of our inside guys a lot. they may not score a lot, but i think they are ready to take charge defensively and rebounding. that is he biggest thing i think they can give this team. add that to frericks doing some scoring inside, it opens up sloan, bryant, drejaj and fisher to score more. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
billiken_roy Posted January 2, 2004 Share Posted January 2, 2004 aj, i disagree on the free throw issue. brad stated that he has decided to make a big effort to use frericks more on offense. if tom stays out of foul trouble, and gets the ball, that will change the defensive looks at our team. not only will frericks go to the line more, but so will sloan and bryant and fisher as they slash to the basket on the extra pass from tom. shooting 3's wont draw fouls. getting to the lane does. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aj_arete Posted January 2, 2004 Share Posted January 2, 2004 if Frericks becomes a focal point of the SLU offense after Bryant, I'll agree that the FT disparity on the road will go down. If Bryant and Fisher continue to attack the basket, that will also increase the amount of free throws. I have to see SLU follow through on that formula a few more times before I concede that SLU can be a decent road team. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
slufanskip Posted January 2, 2004 Share Posted January 2, 2004 I would also like to see them continue to feed the ball inside more before I feel confident in our ability to get road wins. I hope that we are working hard with Tom on his free throws ... it doesn't help to get there if we don't convert. Official Billikens.com sponsor of H. Waldman Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
former_d1 Posted January 2, 2004 Share Posted January 2, 2004 Tom can score on the inside and his free throws will come. The greek, if I remember right, has a good hook shot??? Two scoring centers means you can try to get the ball inside every trip opening up our out side guys. Sloan would benefit the most from this. He can hit the open outside shot. I will be happy with another nit game and a few over .500 for wins. I hold out hope for Brad to get us to the ncaa's. He is a good coach and we still have a few pieces that may workout for us. Ike has shown flashes, the greek maybe a scoring treat inside, ad has yet to look as good as last year. There are some x factors on this team that could break our way. Who knows, my ncaa tickets to the 1st and 2nd round in kc maybe a slu game. Anyone else going to the ncaa's thihs year in stl or kc? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Basketbill Posted January 2, 2004 Share Posted January 2, 2004 is that we no longer have just one player who is going to be the scorer. Yes we know Reggie can score, but we also know that Fish, Frericks, Sloan, Drejaj, and Ohanon all are capable of leading the team in scoring on any given night. The teams self realization of this can only help ie take the pressure off when Reggie can't get open, rather than panic, which they have done in the past, they can just look for the open man. This game was a big confidence builder. Winning on the road, after a first half in which Reggie was cold....even late in the second half he was 2-7 until he hit three in a row. Huge Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
billiken_roy Posted January 2, 2004 Share Posted January 2, 2004 slufanskip said, "I would also like to see them continue to feed the ball inside more before I feel confident in our ability to get road wins. I hope that we are working hard with Tom on his free throws ... it doesn't help to get there if we don't convert." skip, you are correct it is frustrating that tom isnt making his free throws. but the positive thing i have seen from tom that i havent seen from a billiken center maybe ever is his great hands and passing ability. thus getting it to tom who can actually catch a ball will create other opportunities than just tom scoring or getting fouled. as the teams double down to him, someone is going to be open for a 3 or for a slashing move to the basket and then that will create foul shots for the likes of fisher, bryant or sloan who are very good free throw shooters. so imo, just letting frericks touch the ball inside will make everyone get to the line more. frericks and izik are the difference makers on this team. we will rise or fall on izik's and tom's shoulders imo. the four tops will give you the effort and results each night. ross is ross. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
slufanskip Posted January 2, 2004 Share Posted January 2, 2004 You are right Roy ... I was just responding to the free throw issue ... on the road it is very hard to keep the free throws even or to have an advantage. If we continue to feed the ball inside and get to the line ... we must convert. Official Billikens.com sponsor of H. Waldman Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Major Majerus Posted January 3, 2004 Share Posted January 3, 2004 When I saw Tom early this year in practice, I thought he was head and shoulders above KB on offense, but didn't know how he'd come around on defense. In the ft drills, he had a nice stroke, and I'm astounded that every trip to the line is such an adventure. He's so strong that not having legs shouldn't be a problem. I like the way he's asserting himself down low, but he has to hit 60% to stay in a close game at the end. Drejaj's stroke is also very strange - it's as if he tries to put extra arch on his shot. I know extra arch provides for a larger hoop target, but it has to be natural. It'd be nice if Brad could buy a few sessions with the SHOT Doctor for selected members of the team after the season ends. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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