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The New 3 Pt Line Effect

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Since the GDT thread seemed to show a lot of interest in 3pt shooting data...I thought I would update this year's numbers and grades.

The Bills are currently at 32.6%...a C- rating...last year we shot 30.4%...good for an F-....if we were to shoot F- this year we would be at 27.7%....that 4.9% difference is real improvement....I will temper that a bit by saying before the GJ injury we were at 36.8%...since the injury 26.8%...a massive 3/8 drop in production. 

In the  test run, the  NCAA moved the line back during the NIT over the last 2 years...124 games....During those games teams shot 33.8%  vs 35.8% during the regular season. As you will see this compares favorable with the data I have accumulated so far this season.  While the NCAA measured overall 3PT shooting , I measured it by grades...Great shooters to mediocre shooters. On average it was about 2-3 pt difference in the top half and 3-4 pts in the bottom half.. The trend seems to indicate the better shooters are the less effected by the longer distance. While this is still a small sample size (compared to the 11 years of original data--last 3P distance  change was the 2009 season) , nonetheless, it is large enough to be significant.  I would expect the numbers to improve over the next couple of years and then settle in with small incremental increases from time to time....In 10 years , they will be looking to increase the distance again.

The chart below shows 11 years data vs this year...

............2009-2019.................................2019-2020 (through Jan 6, 2020).......Difference

...............41%+.....................A+....................38.2%...............................................-2.8%

...............39.8.......................A......................37.2...................................................-2.6

................38.7......................A-.....................36.6...................................................-2.1

................38.1......................B+....................35.5...................................................-2.6

................37.1......................B.......................34.8...................................................-2.3

................36.6......................B-......................33.9...................................................-2.7

................36.1......................C+....................33.3...................................................-2.8

................35.6......................C.......................32.7...................................................-2.9

................35.1......................C-......................31.9...................................................-3.2

................34.5......................D+.....................31.2...................................................-3.3

................33.9......................D........................30.5...................................................-3.4

................33.3......................D-.......................29.5...................................................-3.8

................32.8......................F+.......................28.8..................................................-4.0

................32.1......................F.........................27.9...................................................-4.2

................32.0-.....................F-.......................27.7-...................................................4.3

 

 

 

 

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So based on this we have four A+ shooter per percentage ... Jimmmmerson, Jacobs, Weaver and Collins although Collins has only attempted 15 threes (making six for 40%).  Goodwin is at D-; Perkins is below F-.

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7 minutes ago, Taj79 said:

So based on this we have four A+ shooter per percentage ... Jimmmmerson, Jacobs, Weaver and Collins although Collins has only attempted 15 threes (making six for 40%).  Goodwin is at D-; Perkins is below F-.

I think Jacobs is a B+ by these rankings (35.3%) but either way that's a massive improvement from last year where everyone was an F

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9 minutes ago, glazedandconfused said:

I think Jacobs is a B+ by these rankings (35.3%) but either way that's a massive improvement from last year where everyone was an F

Regardless, since we lost Jimmerson we've been a similarly bad shooting team as last season. I hope to be wrong, but I don't really expect that to change until next year. 

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3 minutes ago, NH said:

Regardless, since we lost Jimmerson we've been a similarly bad shooting team as last season. I hope to be wrong, but I don't really expect that to change until next year. 

IMO, the difference is we still have 2-3 good 3 point shooters even without Jimerson....last year we had no good shooters (Bess and Isabell were best at 32%).  if we can curb the Perkins attempts, i still have hope we can be an average 3 point shooting team.

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NH ---- I assume your assessment is based on returning guys plussing things up based on summer practices, ala Bess.  Is that a fair interpretation on my part?

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26 minutes ago, Taj79 said:

NH ---- I assume your assessment is based on returning guys plussing things up based on summer practices, ala Bess.  Is that a fair interpretation on my part?

The biggest change will be the return of Jimerson. The second biggest change is that by next year I would expect Perkins to be more adapted and would think he should be able to get into the low-30s. Outside of that I wouldn’t personally count on major improvement from individuals in terms of 3-point shooting.

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39 minutes ago, glazedandconfused said:

I think Jacobs is a B+ by these rankings (35.3%) but either way that's a massive improvement from last year where everyone was an F

You are correct...the listed % is the minimum to make the grade...So B+ is 35.5 -36.5%

As for qualifying for a grade on an individual basis...in order to be a "real " 3 pt shooter you need to be on a pace of 25   3PM  / season or just a shade under one 3PM /game.

Unfortunately GJ comes up short finishing at 24 for the season

Those that currently qualify for a grade at this point...Jacobs and Weaver

Borderline...Perkins

With a chance to make the grade ...Goodwin

So our 2 remaining shooters (J&W)...are shooting at B & A+...that is good for the team if they can keep that pace.

Of course the number that really matters is the team grade ...which as pointed out has come up significantly but  also  has fallen sharply w/o GJ. ...again it can't be any worse than last year....in fact last year we had straight Fs in all shooting categories....this year we are pretty much average (C) across the boards.

 

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The line must be having an effect.  Jalen Johnson of the Ragin Cajuns is only shooting 28.2% from behind the arc on over 70 attempts.  He was an A- shooter for the Billikens.

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1 hour ago, NH said:

The biggest change will be the return of Jimerson. The second biggest change is that by next year I would expect Perkins to be more adapted and would think he should be able to get into the low-30s. Outside of that I wouldn’t personally count on major improvement from individuals in terms of 3-point shooting.

Yes, but Weaver (maybe our best this year now, will be gone due to graduation.

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43 minutes ago, Matty Light said:

The line must be having an effect.  Jalen Johnson of the Ragin Cajuns is only shooting 28.2% from behind the arc on over 70 attempts.  He was an A- shooter for the Billikens.

Looks like he had two particularly bad games - 0-8 vs. Detroit and 0-6 vs. South Alabama.  Oof.  He's shooting 35% in all other games.

He's also shooting 82% from the line and averaging 14.3 points and 6.6 boards per game.

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Nah —- thanks.

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