slufan13 Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Everyone will improve in their time at SLU (for the most part), but just average year to year average improvement is not enough for SLU and the types of players we have/get. That's the question for me. These guys need uncommon improvement to become great. Can the staff do that? That's yet to be seen. Majerus was great at exploiting other team's weaknesses while covering up our own. I'm not sure this current staff can do that yet, but it may just be because we have so many weaknesses. The defense has improved but it's a long, long shot from 2010-11, but we are improving so that's a good sign. We will be better next year. We'll be better as this season goes on. But just "getting better" isn't enough. My opinion is that we can't afford more than 2 straight years without a NCAA appearance before we become the next SIUC. We aren't going to make it this year and I highly doubt it next year either. So whether we get Tatum or not, we need to be making it in 2016-17. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
slufanskip Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 When was the last time a team lost all 5 starters that contributed 76% of their scoring ... and if you only counted competitive scoring by discounting mop up time it'd be even higher. Like it or not the amount we lost was rare, add in very little help that wasn't frosh who didn't play a lot ... what did we expect? Anyone who hasn't seen signs of improvement is nuts. We've played with the best teams in the conference and then had moments that were bad, even very bad. It's exactly what I expected. I'm not sure JC can develop players yet, but I'm certainly not anywhere near the point where I'd say I believe he can't. I find it useless to stress over something you can't change nor does anyone have enough information to draw a reasonable conclusion ... good or bad Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pistol Posted February 13, 2015 Author Share Posted February 13, 2015 When was the last time a team lost all 5 starters that contributed 76% of their scoring ... and if you only counted competitive scoring by discounting mop up time it'd be even higher. Like it or not the amount we lost was rare, add in very little help that wasn't frosh who didn't play a lot ... what did we expect? Anyone who hasn't seen signs of improvement is nuts. We've played with the best teams in the conference and then had moments that were bad, even very bad. It's exactly what I expected. I'm not sure JC can develop players yet, but I'm certainly not anywhere near the point where I'd say I believe he can't. I find it useless to stress over something you can't change nor does anyone have enough information to draw a reasonable conclusion ... good or bad Are you referring to improvement over the course of the season? Because I was talking about improvement of the players Crews has coached over multiple seasons. If you have seen improvement in them, I'm interested to hear about it. I didn't expect to be a Tournament team this season, like any reasonable person. My point is that I don't see any reason we'll be a Tournament team again in the near term. I don't know if Crews can or can't - I haven't seen anything that shows he can, though, which is troubling in a third year. Bigger programs fire coaches in this amount of time - not that I think it's right, or that I want that to happen yet; just saying. True talent shows improvement in less than that amount of time. And if your last sentence is true, than this message board is rendered useless. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
slufanskip Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Are you referring to improvement over the course of the season? Because I was talking about improvement of the players Crews has coached over multiple seasons. If you have seen improvement in them, I'm interested to hear about it. I didn't expect to be a Tournament team this season, like any reasonable person. My point is that I don't see any reason we'll be a Tournament team again in the near term. I don't know if Crews can or can't - I haven't seen anything that shows he can, though, which is troubling in a third year. Bigger programs fire coaches in this amount of time - not that I think it's right, or that I want that to happen yet; just saying. True talent shows improvement in less than that amount of time. And if your last sentence is true, than this message board is rendered useless. There's a difference between discussion and the over the top high's and low's that is this board this season. Improvement ... Loe, Jett, Evans, McCall ... all improved from their soph to Sr seasons. This season MC and even RA a little. Jett ... became much more reliable with the ball and developed the confidence to just take over a game. Did anyone see Jett become conference player of the year during his Soph season? Loe ... became a much better interior player and rebounder from his Soph to Sr season. I can remember some of the comments fro his 1st 2 years. McCall ... Became a defensive stopper and a reliable if not flashy passer. Evans ... really improved over the end of his Soph and Jr years ... I'd love to see stats from the following season on teams that lost all 5 starters and 76% of minutes Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pistol Posted February 13, 2015 Author Share Posted February 13, 2015 So you think Crews deserves credit for those four, but is off the hook for everyone on the roster now? That's convenient. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
slufan13 Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Vermont lost 6 seniors and 72% of their scoring and they are 140 spots higher than us in kenpom. It's too early in my opinion to say that Crews can or cannot develop players. Guys improve over their 4 years no matter who the coach is. Next year is the important and telling year IMO. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pistol Posted February 13, 2015 Author Share Posted February 13, 2015 Too early to say one way or another, but not too early to be justifiably doubtful. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pistol Posted February 13, 2015 Author Share Posted February 13, 2015 The initial post has been up for a few days and there has not been one legitimate rebuttal to your well-thought postulation. While I agree with you...I will still attempt to put on the rose-colored glasses.. I think our guards have shown flashes of being very good. Right now, I think our guards are battling tough with some of the best guards in the conference. Roby in particular. Roby really has not been outplayed and has blown by his man multiple times this season. I think Miles has the raw tools along with Bartley but they just need to get physically stronger and stronger with the ball. Ash will provide a steadying force next year as a Senior as well. The problem is the absolute absence of ANYONE in the interior providing impact. Frankly, I think it is in the danger zone territory for program health and something drastic must be done. I would like us to do something really uncharacteristic, which may be viewed as desperate. Find a 5th year grad student who doesnt even need to be talented offensively but just provides muscle. Some 9th man on San Diego St who is 6'9 and can just give this team a semblance of an inside presence. If Crews thinks that next year will be different with Gillman/Jolly as Sophomores and RA as a junior, I think we are in for another sub 15 win season. We need someone to come in (not a freshman) who can try to give some kind of inside presence to this team... Everyone will improve in their time at SLU (for the most part), but just average year to year average improvement is not enough for SLU and the types of players we have/get. That's the question for me. These guys need uncommon improvement to become great. Can the staff do that? That's yet to be seen. Majerus was great at exploiting other team's weaknesses while covering up our own. I'm not sure this current staff can do that yet, but it may just be because we have so many weaknesses. The defense has improved but it's a long, long shot from 2010-11, but we are improving so that's a good sign. We will be better next year. We'll be better as this season goes on. But just "getting better" isn't enough. My opinion is that we can't afford more than 2 straight years without a NCAA appearance before we become the next SIUC. We aren't going to make it this year and I highly doubt it next year either. So whether we get Tatum or not, we need to be making it in 2016-17. These are good posts. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheChosenOne Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Too early to say one way or another, but not too early to be justifiably doubtful. Right. I don't think anyone is saying fire Crews or that we are doomed, but there are certainly plenty of reasons to have concern. I would think it would be near impossible for anyone to be completely confident with the future of the program at this point. We legitimately could not be much worse. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
slufanskip Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 So you think Crews deserves credit for those four, but is off the hook for everyone on the roster now? That's convenient. I don't see where I said that. In fact I said I saw improvement from MC and RA a little. I've seen huge improvement from MB, DR, and decent improvement from BJ. MY has been up and down, but certainly improved from the beginning of the season. I guess the difference is I see a potential tourney team in 2 years, you don't. Fair enough Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbizzle09 Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 So you think Crews deserves credit for those four, but is off the hook for everyone on the roster now? That's convenient. At the same time, isn't it also convenient that you don't think he should get any credit for their two-year development? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
slufan13 Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 I don't see where I said that. In fact I said I saw improvement from MC and RA a little. I've seen huge improvement from MB, DR, and decent improvement from BJ. MY has been up and down, but certainly improved from the beginning of the season. I guess the difference is I see a potential tourney team in 2 years, you don't. Fair enough I think this is the thing. Posters are seeing completely different things. I've seen some serious regression from Bartley over the past 4 or 5 games. So much to the point where I want to see more of McBroom. Both of us are probably wrong as usual. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
slufan13 Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 With average improvement I do not see a Tourney team in 2 years. With even a couple guys showing uncommon improvement, I see it for sure in 2 years and if 4 or 5 guys do it, I could see it next year. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheChosenOne Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 I also think you have to question who gets credit for a players inidividual development or regression. Does Crews deserve to get crushed because sophomores like Reggie and Lancona are still really bad (maybe they just should not be playing at this level) or does he deserve all of the credit for kids like Evans and Jett having big junior/senior seasons? Probably a discussion for another day. My biggest concern is the continual regression of our offense since Crews took over. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpencerFilibuster Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 I understand that some people want to stay positive, hope for the best. I get it. I wish I were able to see this team that way. But what's missing is why those who feel we'll be fine moving forward think that way. I've made my points: our freshmen aren't as good as other freshmen, and Crews has not shown an ability to develop anyone. Not pointing fingers, not taking cheap shots, not saying anything other than what I've observed and considered as objectively as possible. I really, really want to be wrong. But I have seen very little that makes me think we'll be much better next season or the season after. Marginal improvement of the current class won't be enough. Here's why I'm positive: A list of the losses, that I've arranged by drubbing-size, in my own opinion. Stompings: MissSt (Neutral) @Wich St @Davidson Semi-Stomp: Vanderbilt, @GM Second Half Stompings: @Dayton (Billikens down 1 with 17:20 left in second half) @Fordham Close Losses: SD St: Billkens up 1 with 2:00 left in second half, then fell apart TA&M-CC: Billikens up 1 with 2:50 left in second half, then fell apart RI : 50 - 46 with 5 minutes left, fizzled out after that VCU: Down to the wire, last second win for VCU UMASS: Down to the wire @GW: Tied 66-66 with 4:00 minutes left in second half, hung in there until the end Dayton: Billikens up 1 with 3:15 left in second half My main point, and the reason I'm optimistic, lies within the games listed under 'Close Losses'. I think it should be noted that the losses in the other categories have not been home games (with the exception of Vanderbilt). The SD State and TA&MCC losses can be attributed to early season issues, not knowing how to close out a game. Four of the close losses have been to the teams currently tied for 1st in the A10. And GW is tied for 5th. I feel like there is a tendency to analyze our players individually, to put each player in a vacuum, and then piecemeal all of those individal assessments together to come up with a conclusion about the whole team. I prefer to look at the team from an outside-in approach and decide if the team is displaying growth as a unit. I believe the Billikens have already proven that they have the chops, athleticism, desire, talent, and balance to be very good, just by hanging in there with some very good teams. This has been a fluid lineup for the most part, which provides its own challenges, and the Billikens are still finding ways to stay in close games. Closing out a close game takes experience, strength, iq, poise and maturity....all of the things our team doesn't have....yet. I don't see how we can conclude that we haven't seen the potential for progress. After listing all of the close games, I remembered how fun each game was to watch. I'm definitely not bored. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
waldo027 Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 For those who are saying our guys just need to trust the offensive system, here are some interesting stats: -currently ranked 292nd in adjusted offensive efficiency per Pomeroy -last year with the huge senior class we were ranked 181st in adjusted offensive efficiency (7th in adjusted defensive efficiency) per Pomeroy -the year before with Kwamain and Cody we were ranked 75th in adjusted offensive efficiency (6th in adjusted defensive efficiency) per Pomeroy -in 2012 with Conklin and Majerus on the sidelines we were ranked 39th in adjusted offensive efficiency (11th in adjusted defensive efficiency) per Pomeroy This is good information, if anyone claimed Crews is a better basketball mind than Majerus. I'm giving Crews a pass on Manning, because Manning struggles to do some of the most basic basketball things, like catch the ball in the post, set legal screens, and switch on defense (Burgess wide open 3 at end of VCU game). If he showed flashes of potential when he was younger, like Jolly, Gillmann, and Agbeko have, and never got past that point, I would blame Crews. But I can't recall him ever showing any real flashes, ever. He's a total swing and a miss as a recruit. Crews deserves blame on Lancona though. No idea what happened to him. If we're still sitting at 10-14 (2-9) on February 13, 2016, I'll be right there with you guys. But I think it's way too early to draw any real conclusions. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheChosenOne Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Not sure I agree, we have also won a lot of close games: -Saint Joseph's in OT -Southern Illinois, North Carolina A&T, Bradley, Vermont all by 3 -SIUE and Texas-Pan American by 6 Didn't the Wiz post some sort of luck factor the other day? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hsmith19 Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 We have (mostly) won the close games against bad teams. We have (entirely) lost the close games against good teams. Not sure what you do for a living, TheChosenOne. But this ain't rocket science. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheChosenOne Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 We have (mostly) won the close games against bad teams. We have (entirely) lost the close games against good teams. Not sure what you do for a living, TheChosenOne. But this ain't rocket science. I was just saying that listing all of our close losses ignores that we have also won a lot of close games. I am a management consultant for a small energy consulting firm with a background in finance and accounting, so definitely not rocket science. 32 years of age. Went to high school at Chaminade, college at SLU, and got a MBA at SIUE. Trying to think if there is anything else of note. I worked for the basketball program when I was at SLU as a student manager (one season for Romar and three for Soderberg). Not blessed with a very large penis, but what can you do. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hsmith19 Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 El Oh El. Good for you, on all counts. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rgbilliken Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Not sure I agree, we have also won a lot of close games: -Saint Joseph's in OT -Southern Illinois, North Carolina A&T, Bradley, Vermont all by 3 -SIUE and Texas-Pan American by 6 Didn't the Wiz post some sort of luck factor the other day? Yeah, I think he did, although i don't know where the post is. Kenpom also measures "luck," which in my understanding just means "outcomes that my system doesn't account for" (but I could definitely be wrong on that) and has the Bills as the 45th "luckiest" team. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hsmith19 Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 The Wiz has us at neutral luck. Kenpom has been considering us lucky all season. I'm not sure how either of those luck factors treat the quality of the opponent. Because if we had pulled out a couple of those squeakers against decent opponents (both Dayton games, GW, VCU, UMass, or even RI) it would probably change the overall perception of this season quite a bit, even if we had also lost a couple more of the close games against crappy teams. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Old guy Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 With all due respect and not intending to dis anyone, including Kenpom or the Wiz, I do not see how "luck" can be measured in a standard reproducible fashion. I assume whatever ratings we get for "luck" are based upon speculation or personal bias. Can anyone describe how to measure luck in case I am wrong here? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpencerFilibuster Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 I was just saying that listing all of our close losses ignores that we have also won a lot of close games. I am a management consultant for a small energy consulting firm with a background in finance and accounting, so definitely not rocket science. 32 years of age. Went to high school at Chaminade, college at SLU, and got a MBA at SIUE. Trying to think if there is anything else of note. I worked for the basketball program when I was at SLU as a student manager (one season for Romar and three for Soderberg). Not blessed with a very large penis, but what can you do. My point had more to do with losing games in the last 5 minutes, and hanging in there against (many) quality teams. I didn't mention close wins (against bad teams) because I didn't think it had anything to do with the point I was trying to make. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pistol Posted February 13, 2015 Author Share Posted February 13, 2015 At the same time, isn't it also convenient that you don't think he should get any credit for their two-year development? By his own admission, Crews inherited a great roster in 2012-2013 and put them on autopilot, letting the juniors and seniors keep running things as Majerus had. It was November 19 before SLU and Majerus announced he wouldn't be coaching that season. The players in that class collectively made a nice leap. But in their senior year, the offense declined on the whole even as a couple of their averages went up (Jett, mostly, as he carried the team on his back in the second half when offense was stalling). It seems bizarre to me that Crews would be credited for the way these guys decided to step up in late 2012. It seems much, much different when we're talking about transfers or younger guys that he's been coaching for multiple seasons now. It's every single class after the Jett-Evans-Loe-McCall class that I worry about. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Join the conversation
You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.