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GW over the Bills by 22


The Wiz

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I don't think it's just one season, but rather three. As evidenced in "Recruiting Hindsight" thread Acie is admonished for starting. I called it "sustainability" many moons ago but its the same thing. This year reaps the benefits of three barren recrutiing years. Our seniors are limited, woeful or, sadly, gone. Our juniors are gone or limited. And our sophomores are at best enigmatic or worse. I have a theory for all that but don't want to be a "negative ninnie."

While technically still attached to the Majerus umbilical cord, we are as far away from the mothership as possible with a sole microscopic thread still hanging on. It's a seven-footer microscopic thread but still .....

We are laying the Jim Crews foundation right now. How that goes will be truly of great interest. Majerus gave the program tons of fish to barbeque and grill and skewer and enjoy and get fat on. But did the program learn how to fish? Biblical, ain't it?

Rocky road. Enjoy the ride. Can't wait. Go Bills!

We learned how to fish. We just can't hit the ocean.

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If someone on here said we would be a 22 point underdog at GW according to the Wiz and Sagarin at the beginning of the season we all would have called the guy an idiot. This season is a complete disaster so far.

Yo. We get it.

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No bet tonight if it's +17, too close to the Wiz. If it was somewhere around 9 to 11, I'd do it. Gotta feeling that 1-3-1 GW plays is gonna give us fits, and they have some really nice players; Danish, Japanese, Argentines, Mongolians, Tibetans, Aztecs... Lonegran's recruiting budget must damn near equal the Obama's vacation budget.

You are right in passing on this bet....even thought the differential between Vegas and me is 6 1/2 pts ( I show Vegas at 15 1/2)) that is not enough in this case. It may still work out but it is more iffy. Once a team is favored by more than 20, other factors come into play...for example motivation. Once the winning team is up by 20+ they may start to let up....or....The winning team may put in their 2nd or 3rd team which if good, can continue to run up the score trying to impress and get more playing time.

Bottomline... there are better bets.

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Did we jump up to a D- yet? Did you see Roy Blunt standing in the corner as Jim Crews walked off the court after the halftime interview? Soooo close.

I can't make the calculation yet until all the games are complete...but yes I think that is good enough to get us out of the hole. Just think how are numbers would have jumped if we would have won. We are almost there. This was the "gel" game. We played good enough to win. If we continue to play at this level we could win a number of games. Even if we don't continue to play at this level, we have taken another big step forward. This wasn't just a good game (and effort) but a good game against a quality team. ( A- )

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No rest for the weary.....If you want to see the wrapup for the RI game ...see post #15 on RI over Bills thread.

The good news is our numbers are improving. The bad news is we are still F+. We dug a deep hole for ourselves and need a win to climb out. A strange quirk in the schedule gives us our third A- game in a row with GW. Of the 3 , Vandy was the best shooting team followed by RI and now GW. And while GW is the weakest of the 3, they are still a very good shooting team at around 46%. While the shooting numbers of our opponents has been drifting down their defense has become better with GW the best of the 3. This does not bode well for us.

Here is what we need to do to win...........

On defense.

Slash line equals these numbers or lower.....23 FGM / 51 FGA / 45%....I need 2 of 3

13 or more TO's

31% 3pt

11 assists

Hold Larsen to 14pts

Hold Garino to 4 FGM

Hold McDonald to 5 reb

Weakness....not very good at 3's or FTs

On offense

We need to score 64pts or more

Make at least 24 FG

Shoot 43% FG

Make 1/3 of our 3's

Shoot 70% FTs

Less than 12 TO's...take care of the ball

The one take away from the RI game was that we can play against anyone in the A-10. RI is one of the premier teams in the A-10 ( A- ) with a good shot at the Dance. Yet we trailed by 2 with 5 1/2 min to go and had the ball with a good chance to win.....even after all those TO's.

Bottomline...played poorly against one of the better teams and still had a chance to win with a few minutes to go.

If we play smart, we could give GW a run for their money.

A heart breaker we could have easily won.....

Let's see how we did on the prediction scorecard

First on defense....

...................................................Forecast.......................................actual

Slash line .................................23 FGM/.........................................24............fail

..................................................51 FGA/ .........................................49............pass

..................................................45 FG%...........................................49%............fail

2 of 3 of the above.......1 less FG and we would have passed and probably won the game...fail

TO...............................................13....................................................8.............fail

3 pt %...........................................31%................................................33.3%......fail

Assists...........................................11...................................................8............pass

Larsen............................................14pts.............................................16..........fail

Garino.............................................4FGM............................................6FGM.....fail

McDonald........................................5 reb..............................................5 reb......pass

Change any one of the fails to a pass and we win...overall a pretty good job....good enough to win

Grade B

Offense

Points................................................64.............................................72...........pass

FGM...................................................24.............................................28.........pass

FG%...................................................43%..........................................55%......pass+

3pt%...................................................33%...........................................52%.....pass+

FT%....................................................70%...........................................71%....pass

TO.......................................................11...............................................11......pass

Clean sweep........nice job....against a good defensive team ....even sweeter....overall grade.. A+

We played good and we played smart and we played good enough to win

The wins will come.

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