slu72 Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 Wiz, CNBC just announced that Warren Buffet and Quicken Loans are holding a contest for March Madness. A cool billion for anyone nailing every game. What are the odd? Higher or lower than power ball? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Old guy Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 Wiz, CNBC just announced that Warren Buffet and Quicken Loans are holding a contest for March Madness. A cool billion for anyone nailing every game. What are the odd? Higher or lower than power ball? To estimate the odds you need to know the rules. If all it takes is to say who will win every single game, the odds will be much lower than if they have to estimate the point spread for every game as well. I would think the odds are much higher than Power Ball's either way. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
slu72 Posted January 21, 2014 Author Share Posted January 21, 2014 Not sure, but would highly doubt point spreads are a factor. I think I've heard of only 2-3 people who've ever done this in the expanded field era, ie +64 teams. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WVBilliken Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 The Dagger What are the odds of someone picking a perfect NCAA tournament bracket? By Jeff Eisenberg March 19, 2013 1:47 PM The Dagger 0 shares Content preferences Done If one of your friends claims to have picked a perfect bracket this year, it's same to assume he or she probably lying. DePaul mathematics professor Jeff Bergen calculated the odds of selecting all 63 games on a bracket correctly. Based on his math, the phrase "long shot" is a major understatement. • Odds of someone randomly predicting a perfect bracket: 1 in 9,223,372,036,854,775,808 • Odds of someone predicting a perfect bracket if he or she knew basketball: 1-in-128 Billion • Odds of anyone in the U.S. predicting a perfect bracket if everyone knew basketball and everyone filled out a bracket: 1 in 400 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
slu72 Posted January 21, 2014 Author Share Posted January 21, 2014 Similar to the odds of having a million monkeys typing letters on a word processor and getting the great American novel on one of them. W. Buffet's no fool. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Wiz Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 Sign me up. I am spending the money as we speak. Bracket vs powerball odds....LOL....correct bracket on 9 quintillion would be like winning the powerball back to back. 9 quintillion=same number of insects on earth Picking the first round only is about 12 times tougher than winning powerball.....last year's ESPN 1st round winner ($10,000) missed 5. If you are a message board moron/genius and decide to outsmart the contest by picking higher seeds only you lower the odds to about 35 billion or about 100 times power ball. What you really need to do is get some help (filling out tthe brackets) by sharing the winnings. Here is what you need to do to win............ Get every man, woman and child on Earth to fill out a bracket (at a rate of 1 per second) for 43 years....and you can't let them take any 3's while doing it. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MapleLeaf45 Posted January 22, 2014 Share Posted January 22, 2014 Hey Wiz just stop me when my assumptions go too far, The odds of getting a perfect bracket when randomly selecting the winner of the 63 games is 1:2^63. But as Bills fans we know a bit more than that... Assumptions: Just to get a starting place we will assume that all the 1, 2, and 3 seeds win their first round so we only need to pick the 51 remaining games We will next assume that all 4 number one seeds will win their second round game against the unfortunate 8/9s making it only 47 games to pick As Bills fans we all know that Mizzou will lose their first game bringing the number of games to pick down to 46 (sorry ABF) And finally, we already know that SLU will win it all so we can cut out 6 more games This takes us to picking a total of 40 games to get that perfect bracket. Now I am going to have to ask each of the 2,635 Billikens.com members to fill out 417 million UNIQUE brackets keeping to what we already know will happen (see assumptions).So get to work because on April 7th we will all be celebrating a championship and be much richer for having worked together.P.S. There is no concern for having to split the billion dollar prize with anyone else because no one in the nation will see us coming thanks to the Post-Dispatch keeping this little secret under wraps for us. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AMDG Posted January 22, 2014 Share Posted January 22, 2014 As Bills fans we all know that Mizzou will lose their first game bringing the number of games to pick down to 46 (sorry ABF) Doesn't appear that they will even make the tournament at this point. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eastsidejoe Posted January 22, 2014 Share Posted January 22, 2014 The Wiz is already a Billionaire!! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MapleLeaf45 Posted January 22, 2014 Share Posted January 22, 2014 Doesn't appear that they will even make the tournament at this point. I just thought it would be unreasonable to make all 2,635 posters fill out 834,000,000 brackets and wanted to slim it down a tad... No, I just included them because Lunardi's latest bracket (1/16/14) had them in and I was reaching for a friendly chuckle. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Wiz Posted January 22, 2014 Share Posted January 22, 2014 Hey Wiz just stop me when my assumptions go too far, The odds of getting a perfect bracket when randomly selecting the winner of the 63 games is 1:2^63. But as Bills fans we know a bit more than that... Assumptions: Just to get a starting place we will assume that all the 1, 2, and 3 seeds win their first round so we only need to pick the 51 remaining games We will next assume that all 4 number one seeds will win their second round game against the unfortunate 8/9s making it only 47 games to pick As Bills fans we all know that Mizzou will lose their first game bringing the number of games to pick down to 46 (sorry ABF) And finally, we already know that SLU will win it all so we can cut out 6 more games This takes us to picking a total of 40 games to get that perfect bracket. Now I am going to have to ask each of the 2,635 Billikens.com members to fill out 417 million UNIQUE brackets keeping to what we already know will happen (see assumptions). So get to work because on April 7th we will all be celebrating a championship and be much richer for having worked together. P.S. There is no concern for having to split the billion dollar prize with anyone else because no one in the nation will see us coming thanks to the Post-Dispatch keeping this little secret under wraps for us. Well, why don't we look at the odds of something the board is really interested in....... The Bills winning the National Championship....most recent odds... 100 to 1 or about the same as rolling a 9 and 10 consecutively in a dice game.........Look at the crystal ball closely. The 50-50-90 rule........... Anytime you have a 50-50 chance of getting something right, there's a 90% probability of getting it wrong. .......................Andy Rooney PS....I am fine tuning my bracket as we speak. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quality Is Job 1 Posted January 22, 2014 Share Posted January 22, 2014 Hey Wiz just stop me when my assumptions go too far, The odds of getting a perfect bracket when randomly selecting the winner of the 63 games is 1:2^63. But as Bills fans we know a bit more than that... Assumptions: Just to get a starting place we will assume that all the 1, 2, and 3 seeds win their first round so we only need to pick the 51 remaining games We will next assume that all 4 number one seeds will win their second round game against the unfortunate 8/9s making it only 47 games to pick As Bills fans we all know that Mizzou will lose its first game bringing the number of games to pick down to 46 (sorry ABF) And finally, we already know that SLU will win it all so we can cut out 6 more games This takes us to picking a total of 40 games to get that perfect bracket. Now I am going to have to ask each of the 2,635 Billikens.com members to fill out 417 million UNIQUE brackets keeping to what we already know will happen (see assumptions). So get to work because on April 7th we will all be celebrating a championship and be much richer for having worked together. P.S. There is no concern for having to split the billion dollar prize with anyone else because no one in the nation will see us coming thanks to the Post-Dispatch keeping this little secret under wraps for us. Doesn't appear that they will even make the tournament at this point. AMDG took the words right out of my mouth (or off of my keyboard). Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MB73 Posted January 22, 2014 Share Posted January 22, 2014 Wiz just puts up the lines. What you want is someone to predict the winner vs.the spread. Like tonight, overrated U. Mass @ Richmond - 3 1/2, I say, Richmond by 12. (Wiz would say Denver by 2 1/2 in The Super Bowl. MB73 says Seattle by 23, a blowout, superior smash mouth team in the cold, played a superior schedule beat a superior team to get there. Better at most every position except QB and WR (assuming Harvin is ineffective), and it will be too cold and windy for old beat up Peyton, so even he is not going to be a factor) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Wiz Posted January 23, 2014 Share Posted January 23, 2014 UMass by 2..... whatever Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BACKHANDtheRICAN Posted January 23, 2014 Share Posted January 23, 2014 UMass by 2..... whatever MB > Wiz Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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