Bay Area Billiken Posted January 16, 2012 Share Posted January 16, 2012 SLU's current RPI is 59 (per rpiforecast.com) which per the RPI would land SLU as the 4th team out of the NCAA and the 4th team into the NIT. So there is work to be done, and SLU can certainly make up that gap. Temple would have the A-10's automatic bid with an RPI of 24. Other A-10 teams in the NCAA would be 27 Dayton, 43 Xavier, and 52 St. Joseph's (the second to last team in). My analysis assumes that the A-10 team with the best RPI (currently and projected would be Temple) wins the A-10 Tournament and thereby receives the A-10's automatic bid. Those home games vs. Dayton and Xavier are must win games for SLU, and the road games at Xavier and St. Joseph's are big too, especially St. Joseph's. Also, there are other tough A-10 games coming with 61 UMass (road), 87 LaSalle (road), 89 St. Bonaventure (home), 93 Richmond (home), and 100 Duquesne (home and road). As for projected RPI's, SLU's projected RPI, per rpiforecast.com, is 39, which would have SLU with the 27th of 37 NCAA at large bids. Temple would still have the NCAA's automatic bid at 37. SLU would be the 2nd A-10 team in and first A-10 at large with the best projected RPI. Also in the NCAA field would be 46 Dayton, 48 Xavier, and 49 St. Joseph's, a whopping 5 A-10 teams. I don't think the A-10 will get 5 in the NCAA, but the A-10 stands a decent chance of getting 4. A key gremlin will be the Pac-12 out here, which would only have Cal in under both current and projected RPI's. Cal's current RPI is 40 and its projected RPI is 28. However, Stanford is undefeated in Pac-12 play, has a current RPI of 71 and projected RPI of 60, and if Stanford wins the Pac-12 regular season, you know the NCAA will give a bid to Stanford, assuming it doesn't snare the Pac-12's automatic bid. In other words, I'll believe the Pac-12 getting only 1 NCAA bid when I see it, even if its overall Conference RPI is only 9th. Powerful forces from the West, from the nation's most populous state, and especially given that the school involved is Stanford, will push the NCAA. By contrast, the A-10 is 7th in Conference RPI. In advance, I know the RPI is not the sole criterion, but from studying the NCAA selections for years, there are annually only about 3 variances in the actual NCAA field and what an NCAA field based upon a pure RPI would be. The RPI is a diabolical tool that greatly aids the power conferences, a self-perpetuating formula. But it is what it is, it is a key criterion, and this year, the A-10 is in pretty good shape. Again, SLU has work to do, but the NCAA this year is there for the taking for SLU. SLU basically controls its own destiny the rest of the way. As the late Al Davis said, "Just win baby." Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bay Area Billiken Posted January 16, 2012 Author Share Posted January 16, 2012 Another gremlin would be if a school like Washington wins the Pac-12 Tournament, Stanford wins the Pac-12 regular season, and Cal has the best RPI in the league, as it has now. Then believe it or not, the Pac-12 could get 3 NCAA teams, when it really only deserves 1, and at most 2. That scenario might even be probable because the Pac-12 teams with the most talent are not the two here in the Bay Area. So we root for the Washington Huskies in the Pac-12 regular season, which helps SLU's RPI, and we should not be rooting for Stanford at all. Get the Tree out of there. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moytoy12 Posted January 16, 2012 Share Posted January 16, 2012 We're going to the dance. Our boys will take care of business and the RPI will be taken care of in the process. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kwyjibo Posted January 16, 2012 Share Posted January 16, 2012 In advance, I know the RPI is not the sole criterion, but from studying the NCAA selections for years, there are annually only about 3 variances in the actual NCAA field and what an NCAA field based upon a pure RPI would be. It is a very complicated issue. No bracketologist would do it your way (too simple and historically inaccurate) but last year a lot of the experts were not predicting UAB because of resume issues and they got in because of a good RPI (Marquette got in with an RPI in the 60's). The RPI seemed to be waning in importance and other rankings (it is not official which other rankings are used but one committee member did mention Sagarin) were supposed to be more important but RPI seemed to be somewhat important for selection last year. Personally, I like what one amateur bracketologist (I think it was Daily Bracket ) said when trying to deduce the pattern of selection. They are only consistent (I would add logical as well) up to the last few selections. At that point, the committee wheeling and dealing takes over in a direct elimination battle where different factors may be emphasized that can be contradictory. So, as a fan, I want to see St. Louis get in a position where their resume is 34th or better so no one can say SLU's lack of top-25 or top-50 wins rules them out against some double digit loss BCS team who "got up" for a few top 25 upsets. Yes, winning is the key to everything but understanding what is needed and what is helpful (and what is irrelevant like what is happening in other conferences) keeps the season in perspective. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bay Area Billiken Posted January 16, 2012 Author Share Posted January 16, 2012 What happens in the PAC-12 in particular is very relevant for any non-BCS team on the NCAA bubble because that is where a worthy NCAA at large bid or two will be lost to a less deserving PAC-12 school or two. This is precisely where the 3 at very most 5 bid variance with the RPI comes into play. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bay Area Billiken Posted January 16, 2012 Author Share Posted January 16, 2012 My MLK Day study is a snapshot, and does not represent my complete method for picking the field. There are variances like the gift bid one year to Mizzou at RPI 57. The variances are predictable. But history shows that the RPI is a quite reliable indicator of which teams get in, again with about 3 variances or so per year, and irrespective of what is uttered by the Committee. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JettFlight5 Posted January 16, 2012 Share Posted January 16, 2012 Missouri State got left out one year at 21, so it's not a foolproof process. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bay Area Billiken Posted January 16, 2012 Author Share Posted January 16, 2012 Missouri State got left out one year at 21, so it's not a foolproof process. I know re Mo. State/SMS, which has been left out twice with deserving RPI's- and I said in advance in the original post, as well as in the subsequent posts, that there are variances. But I can tell you, that by following the RPI and then noting which schools are left out by the RPI, usually within RPI striking range, one can predict where the variances are coming. Then you look over the list of who is in per the RPI, more specifically which non-BCS schools that would be in, and make the subtractions. Off the top of my head, I can recall only 2 times when non-BCS schools without worthy RPI's got in- Air Force in a military relevant year, and New Mexico, and both were from the Mountain West Conference. VCU was a bit of an NCAA surprise pick last season with an on the bubble RPI. Otherwise, just look at which BCS schools are out per the RPI, and subtract from the non-BCS schools that would be in, like the poster team for NCAA snubs- Mo. State. A related clue- even though the NCAA says it doesn't pick by conferences, see how many teams from non-BCS leagues, i.e. the Missouri Valley, would be in per the RPI, and there is the first place to subtract a team. And see if a major BCS league like the Pac-12 has only 1 team, even only 2 teams. Add to that, this year the WCC has 3 deserving teams (# 23 current RPI St. Mary's, #8 Gonzaga, and #41 BYU. There is a pecking order in college sports, and the NCAA is not going to give the WCC 3 teams if it only gives the Pac-12 1 team, irrespective of the public pronouncements about not picking teams by conference. This being said, my belief is that a SLU team with a 21 RPI would be a shoo in, a lock, for the NCAA, and that a SLU team on Selection Sunday with its projected RPI of 39 would also be in. Reason: SLU is a nationally recognized university in a major media market, with a nationally known, future Hall of Fame Coach. This year's SLU team was ranked, and thus is known. Many of the national pundits have commented on this SLU team. My analysis on MLK Day, only 1/4 through the conference season, is and was not intended to be my Selection Sunday bracketology analysis, just the start of it using the RPI. My intent was to see where SLU stood, and what SLU needs to do to get in. What does SLU need to do- very simply, win the games. In a related vein, SLU must protect the home court, as home losses count as 1.4 losses. Road wins count as 1.4 wins; road losses as only .6 of a loss. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bay Area Billiken Posted January 16, 2012 Author Share Posted January 16, 2012 SLU's Sagarin rating is 34, best in the entire A-10. If SLU didn't receive the A-10 automatic bid, SLU would be the 23rd NCAA at large team of 37. Other A-10 Sagarin ratings of interest: Temple 47, Dayton 53, Xavier 56, St. Joseph's 59, LaSalle 80, UMass 81, Richmond 97, Charlotte 102, St. Bonaventure 105, Duquesne 109. Per a pure following of Sagarin, the A-10 NCAA teams would be SLU, Temple, and Dayton, thus 3 NCAA teams. The A-10 NIT teams would be Xavier, St. Joseph's, LaSalle, and UMass. The A-10 CBI/CIT teams would be Richmond, Charlotte, St. Bonaventure, and Duquesne. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
waldo027 Posted January 16, 2012 Share Posted January 16, 2012 Is Sagarin used by the tournament committee when setting the field? As far as I know, the only things they use are the RPI and "who'd you play and who'd you beat" i.e. your SOS and quality wins. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kshoe Posted January 16, 2012 Share Posted January 16, 2012 Is Sagarin used by the tournament committee when setting the field? As far as I know, the only things they use are the RPI and "who'd you play and who'd you beat" i.e. your SOS and quality wins. The NCAA committee uses a ton of data and the RPI is just one of them. It's gotten play in the press but the committee time and time again says its just one of many factors. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kshoe Posted January 16, 2012 Share Posted January 16, 2012 What happens in the PAC-12 in particular is very relevant for any non-BCS team on the NCAA bubble because that is where a worthy NCAA at large bid or two will be lost to a less deserving PAC-12 school or two. This is precisely where the 3 at very most 5 bid variance with the RPI comes into play. Bay Area, I think you are letting you location on the left coast skew your concern about what the Pac 12 does. there are tons of bubble teams out there (power conferences and mid majors alike) and how it will all shake out in the next few months is anybody's guess. But I sure wouldn't stay up nights worrying about whether the Pac 12 gets 1, 2 or 3 teams in the dance. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cowboy Posted January 16, 2012 Share Posted January 16, 2012 Is Sagarin used by the tournament committee when setting the field? As far as I know, the only things they use are the RPI and "who'd you play and who'd you beat" i.e. your SOS and quality wins. -i would like to be fly on the wall (or a bug in room like in the offices of the kc chiefs ) to really know how that process works and what the real factors are -the curtain was pulled back a bit with these mock selection sessions for the media but as the word implies, mock Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bay Area Billiken Posted January 16, 2012 Author Share Posted January 16, 2012 You need not be concerned about yours truly staying up nights and "worrying" about the Pac-12. However, in my opinion, it is a glaring example of BCS largesse, and it was last year also. It is a classic example re why we can't go strictly by the RPI rankings. There is politics at work too, which in my opinion translates into the ad hoc "entire body of work" standard, which seems to sway like the tides and the shifting sands, to the benefit of BCS schools from the big conferences. As for Sagarin, as noted above by kwyjibo, I also recall Sagarin being mentioned, after it had been out of NCAA discussion as long as I can remember. Also, NIT Chairman C.M. Newton has said that the NIT has Sagarin. Sagarin is actually a good ranking system. This being said, the NIT is also a quite strict follower of the RPI, again with the exception benefiting the BCS school. The most relevant computer ranking by far for NCAA Tournament bid purposes remains the RPI, the self-perpetuating ally of the BCS schools. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
slufan13 Posted January 17, 2012 Share Posted January 17, 2012 http://espn.go.com/mens-college-basketball/bracketology Lunardi still has us in as an 11 seed. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Duff Man Posted January 17, 2012 Share Posted January 17, 2012 This being said, my belief is that a SLU team with a 21 RPI would be a shoo in, a lock, for the NCAA, and that a SLU team on Selection Sunday with its projected RPI of 39 would also be in. Reason: SLU is a nationally recognized university in a major media market, with a nationally known, future Hall of Fame Coach. This year's SLU team was ranked, and thus is known. Many of the national pundits have commented on this SLU team. The A10 will not likely get more than 4, and in X and Temple are definitely included in any 4-bid scenario. There are a handful of teams with realistic shots at the 3rd and 4th at-large bids, and there's even more teams that could be dangerous in the A10 tournament. Bottom line: this isn't going to be easy. We can't finish 4th in the conference, then lose the A10 quarterfinal to the 5th place team and expect to make the dance. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WestCoastBilliken Posted January 17, 2012 Share Posted January 17, 2012 The A10 will not likely get more than 4, and in X and Temple are definitely included in any 4-bid scenario. There are a handful of teams with realistic shots at the 3rd and 4th at-large bids, and there's even more teams that could be dangerous in the A10 tournament. Bottom line: this isn't going to be easy. We can't finish 4th in the conference, then lose the A10 quarterfinal to the 5th place team and expect to make the dance. This +10000000 I dont see Temple and Xavier not making the dance in a thousand years. We have a huge uphill battle right now if we plan to be in consideration in March. Lets just say that I will not be running to my travel agent any time soon for some dance tickets. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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