Top 50 Program

[StLouBlue]

I had some time tonight so I thought I would look into what actually achieving a top 50 program actually involved. Not surprising that most top 50 programs are in BCS conferences. I did a quick scan and figured a little over 30 of the top 50 are BCS schools. Obviously some years maybe a few more and some years a few less but around 50 is probably normal. The rest I see as being 3 MVC schools, 3 MW, 3 A10 and 1 each in MAC, Colonial, WAC and then Memphis & Gonzaga. Now being top 50 doesn't assure the school of an NCAA bid, but it should be close and get NIT if not NCAA.

Looking at the A10, the three teams that I see as having top 50 programs now would be Xavier, GW & St Joes. Dayton & Temple have also had recent runs. On average though it seems around 3 A10 teams are top 50. I would expect UMass to make a push into the top 3 with teams like SLU, Fordham, Dayton & URI making a pushes also. In other words, getting into the top 3 in the A10 on a consistant basis is not going to be easy.

This leads me to my next thought on the whole top 50 program. I believe Biondi has taken steps to improve the program during his time at SLU. He has pushed us toward better conferences, first Great Midwest and then CUSA. He upgraded coaches early on to Spoonhour and hired an impressive up and coming coach in Romar. It just seems like our program has stagnated though. I am not sure if this is something the SLU admin is responsible for or if it is our coaching. I am guessing it is just the fact that our program lost most of it's momentum after our good years with Spoonhour, attendance started dropping and nothing really happened to boost the program since then. It just seems like last 10 years programs we were close to have now shot up beyond where we can reach--programs like Cincinnati, Louisville, Memphis, DePaul & Marquette from the old CUSA. It seemed early on we could compete with them and for some reason now it is like we are out of sight from them. Being in a different conference as well as not having the history of those programs are probably the main reasons.

I know many on this board favor replacing our head coach with the belief that in doing so our program will be turned into a consistant winner. A new head coach is going to us win regular season conference titles, something no coach at SLU has done since sometime in the early '70s. A new head coach will never make a recruiting mistake like wanting Grimes over Shaw and missing both in the end. A new head coach will work the media and fans so that our new arena will be the hot ticket. A new head coach will be able to recruit Chicago and the coasts and suddenly every high school & JUCO player will know about SLU and want to come here. Of course the new head coach will also keep schools like Florida, North Carolina and Washington from poaching the good local players as well. I just think it is funny how some posters on this board think who ever we would hire as coach would not have any negatives about them. This coach would know how to teach players how to not turn the ball over. He would switch to zone and man to man at just the right times. Would run an uptempo offense but also have the team executing perfectly in the half court as well. And after 3 or 4 years of these coach not reaching these expectations, well SLU could just go get the next perfect coach and so on.

I guess the point I am trying to make is that while Brad is not close to a perfect coach, I still think he is probably better than most coaches out there that we could hire now. And I do mean realistically hire, I don't think Fox from Nev is coming here and I don't think Lowery is either. I still expect Brad to continue improving as our head coach and I also expect solid finish to '07 recruiting and verbals by end of summer for '08.

[billiken_roy]

should be required reading.

[slufanskip]

and if you change it to read consistent top 50 programs there aren't 20 mid majors. By consistent I would say 4 out of 5 years.

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[3star_recruit]

I'll go you one further -- there isn't a consistent top 50. A consistent top 35 but not top 50. The schools outside of the top 35 tend to go through boom and bust cycles. Three years ago schools like Wake Forest, Missouri, Cincinnati, Georgia, Charlotte, Utah, and Providence were all considered top 50 programs. Since then they have met with hard times.

[SLUDrew]

Before I give my rebuttal, let me say that your's was a very well thought out post and though I disagree, I can respect your opinion.

"Brad is as good as we can do"

How could you possibly know that until we make a new hire?

You are making assumptions on top of assumptions to reach that conclusion.

You who talk of "realistic hires" and "realistic recruits" and "realistic goals" are why we are stuck in neutral, in my opinion. There is so much complacency amongst the SLU fanbase that the administration can feel free to move at whatever pace they would like in terms of improving this program.

"I expect a solid finish to '07 recruiting and verbals by the end of the summer '08" - And you consider those of us who think we can improve upon our current head coach are unrealistic?

[stchuckbilliken]

This is a brilliant post. Like B-roy said

"required reading" for a complete understanding

of SLU situation.

[Taj79]

SLU Drew ... You find yourself frustrated over thoughts like this post yet you offer no solutions. WHO do you believe is the answer if its not Brad Soderberg? Please, name names. Put your "total recovery plan" out here for all of us to see and comment on.

In the past, when names like Al McGuire, Bobby Knight, Bob Huggins, Digger Phelps, Fran Fraschilla and others came up, most went elsewhere to TV or BCS programs. That makes sense.

Other "hot shots" were also mentioned ... Quinn Snyder, Matt Doherty, Brian Gregory, Mike Brey, any kid sitting on Coach K's left, and so on. None of these guys are much more successful today then when they were first mentioned.

So please enlighten us and lay out the detailed plan so I can buy in and support you wholeheartedly.

[StLouBlue]

The reason I don't believe at this point SLU could hire a better coach than Brad is: (1)Finalists last time were Gregory & Brad, neither one is exactly it lighting up as a head coach yet. (2)We are in a lower conference now as compared to when Brad hired--A10 vs CUSA of 5 years ago. (3)If fire Brad now, I don't believe there would be enough money in program to pay for a big time hire. Would probably be limited to assistants or smaller schools. (4)Smaller schools in area haven't been successful, no semi-local coach to snag away--like we did Spoonhour before. (5)New arena not open yet, so first year plus of recruiting will not have to show off.

These might be assumptions on top of assumptions as you say, but that is what I am thinking. Maybe you can tell me otherwise and/or give me some names of realistic people that would be possible hires that are better than Brad.

I don't think we are stuck in neutral, I think we have a quality coach that is making progress in most areas of the program. Recruiting is obviously a large concern and that is why I stated what I expect yet for the next two classes. You say this is unrealistic, I don't believe so, I think with Brad we have a good chance at that '08 class. Without Brad, I think whatever coach we bring in will be too late in the process to sign any of these kids.

I expect that after the LOI signing period this Fall, we will have a good idea if Brad will be around much longer. If we don't have signed LOIs for the '08 class, I think the only thing saving his job would be our team finishing with more than 20 wins and a 1 or 2 finish in the A10. I have a hard time putting a coach's job in jeopardy on getting NCAA bids or not, as has been talked about on this board mid-majors are getting screwed on this. This brings up an interesting question also, SLUDrew, do you think Hinson should be retained at MO St? Many MO St fans want him gone because it has been 8 years and only 3 NITs, of course his last 2 teams were NCAA quality, but didn't get the bid. Part of the reason I ask is, because I think Hinson could be a name on SLU's list if Brad was fired. Didn't know how that would sit with you.

[SLUDrew]

SLU absolutely MUST generate some buzz surrounding this program, or else we will have a big shiny hew bulding with thousands of empty seats. You can have disdain for the local media all you want, but the fact is many will shape their opinion of the program based on what they see on TV, read in the paper, and hear on the radio. When is the last time you heard anyone in the local media sing the praises of Soderberg or tout the positive direction the program is heading?

My point is 18-14 teams that play games in the 50s and 60s do not exactly fill buildings. Yes, we will all still be there, but what about the other 5,000 seats? SLU literally cannot afford to have a half empty building, and that is exactly what they will have once the initial honeymoon with the new arena is over.

I think this is the absolute perfect time for a Matt Doherty type hire. If successful he may only be here two or three years, but he could put us on back on the map. He would generate excitement around the program again. He can recruit with anyone, and would definitely have a drive to succeed. He made Notre Dame basketball relevant again, and in one year coached Florida Atlantic to a winning record. He struggled this past year at SMU (14-17) but I feel he would have more to work with here at SLU. If he winds up jumping for a bigger job, that means he must have done well at SLU and made the SLU job a more attractive one.

No, I absolutely DO NOT want Barry Hinson.

[Kahok]

A good post, I would just like to point out that being in a bad conference does not preclude our being a top 50 program. It does however point out the need for having a top coach that can recruit and coach. Conference USA is a bad conference but Memphis still is able to recruit top players, Gonzaga is in a bad conference but can get top players to play there. Dana Altman keeps his teams playing at a top level each year. Utah State was in a bad conference but was always a top program when they had a coach. And there are other teams that are good year end and year out that do not play in top leagues, but they do have coaches that can sell the program and his style of play. I believe that you keep changing coaches until you find the right one and then give him the pay and the resources to develop that winning program. And try to find the right coach for your program sooner so that you don't have to make the changes every four years.

[courtside]

Roy said this is required reading...absolutely...but not for agreement purposes.

Roy also said this week that SLU overachieved this year.

And also said Stemler probably regrets picking Indiana, instead of SLU.

This pretty much sums up most of this board and SLU fans in general.

I thought Billikan was Grand Marshall of the parade, it is Roy...

It really is much easier and more pleasant to just be satisfied with the way things are....let me try it....this year was a great success...SLU overachieved....tremendous season....

Feels good.

[moytoy12]

"I know many on this board favor replacing our head coach with the belief that in doing so our program will be turned into a consistant winner...I just think it is funny how some posters on this board think who ever we would hire as coach would not have any negatives about them."

I won't speak for others, but I advocate a coaching change IF CL performs her due diligence and finds a better coach (note: not a perfect coach). This due diligence takes into account buyouts, salaries, recruiting, coaching ability, etc.

While i believe some of those flaming the board expect a perfect coach, i think there are many people advocating a change that understand that a new coach will have certain shortcomings, but will be better than Sodie at the end of the day. Being better than Sodie certainly doesn't mean a coach is perfect.

In response to your reply (and another poster's reply) to Drew, i believe we had a list of 10-20 potential coaches who some thought could fill the role. I advocated for Butch Pierre (LSU assistant) after a 10 minute internet search, but the point was that a coach could be found that passed the sniff test in 10 minutes. With the ODU's and Butler's of the world playing well with quality players (one would have to recruit his butt off to get solid players to some of these small schools) I think it is in error (or without sufficient information so as to form a belief) to say that Sodie is better than most coaches we could hire. None of us know that answer. Now, if CL concluded this after a year long informal search (say during the '06-'07 season), then i'm fine with that (of course, i'll never be privy to whether she did or did not do that).

In my opinion Brad did improve as a coach, but did he improve enough? We still had no answer for pressure D. I didn't get to watch many games, but we didn't seem to run any inbounds plays. His substitutions were inconsistent and at times befuddling. His use or lack of use of AK, DM and BH were confusing and counterproductive. At the end of the day, Brad received"C's" and "D's", even from his staunchest supports, from those on this board grading his work for the season. That is hardly dispositive, but it is informative. I have a hard time believing that SLU could not attract a coach that would perform better than at an average or "C" level.

[StLouBlue]

I agree and I think I actually had each of those just outside of my top 50 guesses. Mizz and Cincinnati probably have their programs structured to where they will be returning to the top 50 pretty regularly in next year or two. Also, it seems where a team like Mizz drops down another B12 program like A&M or maybe KSU step up to replace them. Wake drops & Virginia or Virginia Tech steps up, etc.

[billiken_roy]

kahok i want to say first, that i love your typical posts. good points.

however i quit reading the above post the second i got to "memphis".

i can assure you slu will never hire anyone remotely similar to john calipari.

[billiken_roy]

so you think that a program with an 89th ranked basketball budget and a 183rd ranked overall athletic dept rank that finishes with a 74th rpi rankings underachieved?

second, you think that stemler who no longer starts, has gotten under 20 minutes of floor time 7 out of the last 9 games (last two games 4 minutes each), which also coincides with about the time that andre thomas committed to indiana for next year and plays stemler's position is still thrilled to be a hoosier? i hope he likes wearing those red and white striped warmup pants. he will wear them a lot next year.

[billiken_roy]

i take the lead the parade comment as a compliment. thanks!!

[StLouBlue]

I understand that there are candidates out there that could be better than Brad, I just don't know if they will be better than him next year. I don't really like the idea of hiring an assistant coach with no or little head coaching experience. I also don't believe given the other short comings with SLU's program, that a new coach would have an advantage over Brad in recruiting the '08 class. Watkins at Mizz is one name that I have come up with that probably already has the contact with the local class & does have prior head coaching experience. I think most would agree he is a solid recruiter, given that he recruited a lot of the A&M players on the current team. I don't know enough about him beyond that if he should be considered or not.

As far as if Brad improved enough, some of those same areas you bring up, are they completely coaching problems or are they also executing problems. By executing, I mean like the GW game, the players had no energy either just tired or sickness, not sure if we can say Brad didn't have them ready for the pressure or players just didn't execute. Also on the use of AK, DM & BH, I have been wanting him to play with the deeper bench for a long time and I hope he does make this change. Brad has addressed this on his radio show, in that these players are not showing enough in practice, pregame, whenever he sees them to get on the court. Since we play so many very close games I kind of understand that we cannot waste 3-4 minutes in a game with backups, those minutes could cost us the game and probably in the end Brad's job.

By the way I didn't grade Brad and am not really sure what the grade would be. We had some positives this year and some negatives, especially those 5 games mentioned in another thread. Lack of depth really hurt, but having Obi & Dixon out and not be dead weight on the end of the bench is good. Husak & Ian both finished the season very well, Husak gives hope for next year that he can be productive at maybe 20 minute a game. LM had a very good year and I expect him to be the real leader next year with TL & KL on the team. TL improvement was very good, but there is a lot of room for even more improvement.

As far as everyone wanting to give out grades, that is fine, but since nobody really defined what each grade level means, how do we really know what a "C" level coach is. Does every coach below Brad in the A10 standings come in at D & F?

[slufanskip]

Courtside, whats up. You spend so much time knocking Roy that many of your posts seem to be just jabs at anyone who doesn't want to fire Brad immediately. I'm not finding them to be required reading anymore.

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[StLouBlue]

From this post it now sounds like you want Brad fired in order to create a buzz about the program? I dislike the idea of bringing in a coach only for the quick turn around and to generate buzz. This is not professional sports where it seems to happen often. Hiring a coach who is looking to leave before he even gets settled in, does not build a program. He will not be red-shirting players for long term success, he will not be checking academics because graduation rates won't matter--he will be long gone. He will have a revolving door of recruiting and be forcing players to transfer. He will be looking for anyway to get JUCOs & prep school kids in. This is how welding certificates become degrees and 24 credit hours get done over summers. I would much rather stay with a coach that is looking for long term development.

Winning is what fills the building and this is what is expected of Brad. If SLU wins 20 next year, do you think we will really have an attendance problem at our new arena. If Brad lands a solid recruiting class for '08 filled with local talent, do you think only 5k are going to be coming to the games? We averaged just under 10k this year, in what most on this board said was a very disappointing season. Are season ticket sales going down after this season? I would expect not.

[Battlecat455]

You raise a point which I believe had an impact on DM, AK and the bench in general. We played a lot of close this year; not blown out much and not blowing people out. It's tough to find time for unproven commodities when winning and losing is on the line.