BACKHANDtheRICAN
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Posts posted by BACKHANDtheRICAN
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I knew when the Wiz had us at even we were gonna get steamrolled. The Wiz is always wrong…
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Did we at least have any dunks?
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7 hours ago, The Wiz said:
So is @joe_davola
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But How many dunks did we have?
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14 hours ago, The Wiz said:
I am back...And with my return, I bring good news and bad news.
First, the good news. We come into this season with the best team since the Majerus days. One of our best preseason outlooks to make The Dance. Lots of scoring potential and depth...good things to have if you are going to make a run for the money. But you all already knew this. So what's the bad news? The computer is not as optimistic as I am. Don't get me wrong, the computer likes us too (86% chance to Dance). It just isn't as excited as I am. It gives The Bills a B+..again a good grade but I was hoping for at least an A- which is still very doable. The computer downgraded us a bit do to uncertainties and question marks on defense and player unknowns i.e. performance and team gelling. The computer wants to "see the kids play"
Before we discuss the the conference report card and the season outlook, I want to digress and discuss some of the changes to D1 basketball and how it affects outcomes. The first is parity....This is a trend that has been going on for a while but has speeded up in recent years. The elite teams are still the best but the raw numbers show they are not as good as the teams from a few years ago. The other factor is there are a lot more good teams as a result of the NIL. How does this affect The Bills? The Bills raw numbers are better than they have been in a few years BUT other teams have jumped up too and the Bills remain at B+ even though they are a better team. Bottom line...There are more good teams and the elite teams have come back to the pack . Btw, this also affects the bottom feeders too. in the last few years, D1 has added a dozen teams including 5 this year. Many of the F teams have moved up to D and many of the new teams along with gutted NIL teams have formed a new class of bottom feeders. Point of information...the new D1 bottom feeder is ...wait for it ...Lindenwood. ...#363....So those that thought playing Lwood was a good idea...NOT.
OK , let's get back to the forecasts....For those that are new , this is the first of 2 forecasts....the preseason and pre conference . This preseason prediction is based on a Bayesian model....the next one on real data. I use a letter grade system which groups similar teams together. As the season starts to unfold, I use the first 8 games to meld the Bayesian model with the real data model. As I gradually integrate the real data with the forecasting tool I drop the Bayesian (after the SIU-C game on Dec 3). As the season goes on and I have more data , I become more accurate ( at least that is the way it is suppose to work).
Let's see what the A-10 report card looks like this year. Percentages are Chance to Dance based on preseason data.
1 Day ...A-...93%
2 SLU...B+...86%
3 VCU...B+...56%
4 Dav ..B+
5 Loy...B+
6 Rich...B+
7 GM...B
8 St. B...B
9 Mass... B-
10 RI.....B-
11 Ford...C
12 GW...C
13 St. J...C
14 LaS...C-
15 Duq...C-
Note of interest....This is the first time since The Bills have been in the A10 that there have not been any Ds or Fs on the preseason report card.
So it looks like we are a 2 bid conference with a fair chance for 3 bids
The Bills Outlook
The computer is forecasting the following outlook for The Bills...30 games reg season...no UMSL or Quinn
Best case ...27-3...Dancing with a high seed
Worst case...21-9...Deciding whether to go to the NIT
Most probable...24-6...sweating bullets waiting for the Committee's decision
Toughest game of the regular season...Auburn
Red flag warning...Computer warns of a rough stretch...Nov 15-27...Best case 3-1...Worst case 0-4...Most probable...2-2...all games are a tossup
Rainbow up ahead...Showing a possible 17 game winning streak...Nov 30 - Feb 10....with only 2 tossup games in the stretch..
If the team can gel AND play some defense for when the shooting goes cold it could be a great year.
Now if I can only get the computer onboard as it prints the following message....SHOW ME THE KIDS PLAYING
GO BILLS
I have great news….The Wiz is always wrong. The Bills are an “A”. Final Four.
BilliesBy40 and majerus mojo like this -
On 10/1/2022 at 11:36 AM, Old guy said:
To get such a player all you need to do is to find a bottle or an old oil lamp with a genie trapped inside. Once you get the genie out and make your wish you can have your player.
Loser mentality.
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I’m not sure what our staff is doing…all we need is a 6’9” power forward who can run, shoot, and jump out of the gym.
Littlebill likes this -
28-2 or I’ll be livid
majerus mojo likes this -
43 minutes ago, willie said:
GameStop is a better option.
You’re on crack.
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You’re on crack.
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Solution: invest in dogecoin and don’t worry about monthly expenses any longer.
you’re welcome.
Box and Won and brianstl like this -
With all these kids in the transfer portal, boosters are more important than ever. $$$$$$
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1 hour ago, 3star_recruit said:
Apparently Mr. Chapley doesn't know any of this because all he saw was "Summit League", turned his brain off and started tweeting.
He missed 0 jumpers in his highlight video. Sign him! And he can dunk.
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also recruiting with Bitcoin seems like a game changer.
NextYearBill, Slu let the dogs out? and thatskablamo like this -
Why don’t we just land a few 6’8” - 6’10” beasts that can fill the middle, run the floor, and one of them with a jumper. I dunno. I think this would fill a lot of needs on our team.
billiken_roy likes this -
Will there be an NIT tournament this year? I hadnt heard...
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On 12/20/2020 at 9:07 AM, billikenbill said:
Great news, I've just purchased a domain for backhandtherican. Go to www.tiresometroll.com and you can set fire to whatever you want there!!
Your name should be billikenbetty. Quit crying.
joe_davola likes this -
These fing 4 point plays
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If we beat Minnesota, I don’t see us losing the rest of the season. Final four.
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16 hours ago, billikenbill said:
I can see a lot of Goodwin in Thatch, and although he hasn't shown it yet, I think he can become a more reliable shooter. JGood has improved his shooting and hit some big threes but, to this point, is still a streak shooter. Thatch has all the same tools and might be a better scorer.
Thatch is no Goodwin. At. All. Get your head out of your ass.
thetorch likes this -
On 12/18/2020 at 1:26 PM, The Wiz said:
A nice win over NC St....This will look good on our resume. Btw, the extra 8 pts on our spread not only helped our numbers but should help us with pollsters and post season committee reviewers. Our 11 pt spread says this was a definitive win. If you want to see the how and why of the NC St game win, check out the post game analysis on the NC St spread thread.
But, there is no rest for the weary, as we face another tough test in Minn. This will be our most difficult game of the year even though this is not the best team we will face or have faced. Minn is a B+ team. We are an A team (currently trending at A+) .
There are 3 reasons this will be a big challenge....#1...Road games are always hard to win in college basketball ..2...1st road game...same as #1 reason but more so ...many visiting teams miss the spread and wind up with closer games on the first trip away....3 Minn plays better than most at home...Their home grade is an A-...Finally everything is harder in 2020 and basketball is no different. All the above factors will be exacerbated by our current environment. It is always hard to play road games ...this year more so.
So let's see what we are dealing with here....
.............................SLU..........................Minn........................................................SLU.....................................Minn
.............................................OFF.....................................................................................................DEF...............
PPG.........................A.............................B+................................................................B+.....................................D+
FG%.........................A+ 14th ITN............D-...............................................................B-......................................C
3Pt%........................A+ 6th ITN.............F+.................................................................C......................................C-
FT%.........................B+.... ......................C+........................................................................................................
Reb.........................B-............................B...................................................................A+ 12th ITN......................D-
OFF Rebs = total rebs...DEF Rebs = opp reb
UP....Offense...Reb...by a lot ......Defense ...3P%...a nice jump too
Down...Defense....PPG
Top 100 ITN (In The Nation)
Assts...Collins....14th....dn
Rebs...Goodwin....12th....up.......French.....96th...new
PPG.....Perkins......64th.....up
Stls......Goodwin.....62nd....up...Collins...89th...dn
3P%...Hargrove...23rd....up....Jacobs...23rd... up.....Perkins....75th...up
Blks...French....43rd...dn
Double Double...Goodwin...3rd
Minn
PPG.......Carr....14th
Assts....Carr......40th
Blks ....Robbins....41st
Injury report....No injuries for either team
A few quirky things about Minn...Robbins their 7 footer is a tall wiry guy who is a shot blocker...not a Bates beast type player...nothing unusual here except, he is a 3 pt shooter too....Need to watch out for that. Another quirk is their guards are great FT shooters (in the 80s) again not unusual ...but the rest of the team can't shoot from the charity stripe. ...Also the report card doesn't seem too daunting...but looks can be deceiving.....
Let's see what we need 2 do...
WWN2D2W....Minn has 14 players...Lots of depth... right?...They have a great starting 5 (better than the report card) ...after that things fall off rapidly. One of the keys to the game will be to wear down that starting 5 or get them into foul trouble. If we do that, we could not only win but open the game up....Stop Carr ...he is their main man....hold him to 17pts....Their other scorers are Gach, Robbins and Kalscheur...hold this trio to 27 pts....Dominate the boards ...again...They get their share of Rebs but rebounding is not their thing. ...win the Reb war by at least 7. ...Bring the TOs down ...to 11
Bottom line....This road trip will be different then in previous years. Being an experienced team will help but still, it is an unknown. Playing a good team will make it an extra test. We are the better team but there is no room for error. If we make mistakes, this can slip away. Focus and win.
The Bills will just have to Go-pher this win.
Road to the Poll....2 down... 1 to go
Wiz- printed the report and started a warm fire with the paper. Thanks again!
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On 12/17/2020 at 10:10 AM, DirtyRican said:
You don't need heat on South Beach bro.
Backhand always brings the heat.
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13 hours ago, The Wiz said:
It's showtime....
NCSt is an A team ... The Bills are an A team. This game will be similar to the LSU game....who by the way is still an A team.
First, let's look at the report card before we discuss the game
.............................SLU..........................NCSt........................................................SLU.....................................NCSt
.............................................OFF.....................................................................................................DEF...............
PPG.........................A.............................A................................................................A-.....................................A+
FG%.........................A+ 9th ITN............A+ 13th ITN...............................................B-......................................C+
3Pt%........................A+ 4th ITN.............A+ 5th ITN................................................D+......................................D+
FT%.........................B+.... ......................D-........................................................................................................
Reb.........................D+............................D-................................................................A+ 10th ITN......................B-
OFF Rebs = total rebs...DEF Rebs = opp reb
UP....Defense....PPG...FG%...3P%..
Down...Offense....PPG...FT%...Reb
Top 100 ITN (In The Nation)
Assts...Collins....11th....up
Rebs...Goodwin....20th....up
PPG.....Perkins......68th.....dn
Stls......Goodwin.....65th....dn...Collins...65th...new
3P%...Hargrove...33th....dn....Jacobs...39th... up.....Perkins....83rd...up
Blks...French....41st
Double Double...Goodwin...3rd...up
NCSt
3P%......Hellems....33rd...Allen...39th...Seabron...39th
Blks...Bates...23rd
Injury report....None
Offense slipped a little ...Defense improved ...Overall.... team is slightly up. The offense has been sky high, so a little slippage is normal especially as we play better teams. Glad to see the D is picking up ...we will need that against the better competition.
Our advantage in this game is rebounding (we need to dominate the boards) and FT shooting( hard to believe I am saying this after last year). This game maybe decided at the charity stripe. Another important factor will be 3pt shooting...while the grades show we are equal, I think we are the better shooting team, provided we play D. They can make the shots, if uncontested... we can make it either way. If we play 3P D , we have the edge. A side note , neither team has a very good grade in 3P D, but we did a nice job last game. And finally TOs....First the good news...On TOs we have a B....on opp TOs ...an A- .....The bad news.....they have an A- on TOs ...on opp TOs ..an A+ ...3rd ITN.....Protect the ball or we lose.
WWN2D2W....Daniels is their main man...Hold him to 14 pts...On 3 pt shooting hold the team to five 3PM....Out rebound them by 8....Match them on TOs...which means we will have to hang around 10.
Bottom line ...I think we are the better team....The numbers show we are equal but here is the difference.... The Pack's opponents look like this....D ...D...D-...They have not played anybody above D...meanwhile , we have an A and a B- under our belt....We have grades on stats that match up yet we have played some tougher teams. And thus, we have the reason for this game....Not only to help their SOS but as an ACC team they will be facing 3 A+ teams plus 3 A teams. You can't get ready for that by playing D teams. They are playing us because right now we are like a good ACC team....
Now we just have to play like one and beat them....
Road to the Poll...1 down ...2 to go.
Printed the Wiz’s lengthy analysis. Used it as accelerant to start a fire for some heat in December.
Bills by 18.
dlarry, Littlebill, BilliesBy40 and 2 others like this
GDT: vs Providence
in Billikens.com Main Board
Posted
No and it’s not accurate the other 6 days.