Duff Man

The RPI doesn't care which games we lose, since it's calculated using aggregate numbers (winning %, SOS, opponents SOS). Bottom line is that we can afford to lose one more regular season game and feel 100% secure about our place in the field of 68. If we lose 2 of these remaining 5 games, then everything is up in the air until Selection Sunday. I'll also point out that - as deep as the A10 is - our neutral court A10 quarterfinal matchup is likely to be more difficult than our 2nd toughest remaining regular season game - we cannot let it come to that.

If we go 13-3 in the A10 and finish first or second, we're in no matter what happens in AC. Semi-final appearance should cut it under that scenario. We can probably afford 1 more non-hideous regular season loss (e.g. vs Xavier, @Duquesne) without having to pad our resume in the A10 tourney.

Bingo. You guys are effing high if you think we're getting a 3 or a 4, and a 5-seed is probably a stretch. Good A10 teams typically get seeded 6 or 7. The ratings might all agree that we're around the 12-16th best team, but we don't have the marquee wins to back it up. Realize that the A10 tournament is on Selection Sunday - even if we blow out Temple in the Final, we're not getting a seed bump from that game. None of this matters because the teams seed 5 thru 12 are all pretty much capable of beating each other on any given day. We should expect to play a team that's every bit as good as us in the first round and a superior team in the second round. and realistically, we're not winning the A10 tournament because we're going to be playing teams that need the win far more than we do.

Bilas told Bernie Miklasz he thought SLU was definitely an NCAA tournament team prior to the Xavier win.

Both games are being played in the respective home gyms, not the Palestra. http://www.owlsports...spx?path=mbball

Last year at the Fetz, Langston Galloway scored 6 points on 2-7 shooting, 0-2 from beyond the arc. We're probably not getting off that easy on Wednesday night. In 2011-12, he's averaging 15.5 PPG while shooting 45.9% from 3.

You mean the guy who currently has Baylor as a 1-seed, Mizzou as a 3-seed, Illinois as a 6-seed, and Northwestern as an 8-seed doesn't have a good track record?

A weeknight game vs St Bonaventure is naturally going to be one of the weaker A10 draws. The buzzkill following the UMass loss didn't help. Saturday games typically draw better than Weeknight games. We had 9,021 for GW on a Saturday, and only 8,760 for Temple (a marquee opponent) on the following Wednesday night. 8,656 showed up for Duquesne on a Saturday - surely more than that will be there for Dayton. Dayton has always been one of the better draws for a myriad of factors (traveling UD fans, STL based UD alumni, casual SLU fans perceive it as a game worth attending). We've had 1. 10,603 attended the Dayton game in February 2009 (it was a Saturday night game). 9,453 were on hand for the double OT win over Dayton in 2010 (that was a 3pm Saturday start).

*wins @Temple, vs SLU, and vs Xavier As recently as 8 days ago they were #24 in the RPI. It's really only in the last 5 days that they wheels have fallen off. National writers who still have Dayton in the field simply haven't noticed that Dayton has ###### the bed.

Last night Conklin was perfect from the field, scored 19 points in 19 minutes - bringing his 4-year BIlliken total to 1,015. Just another day at the office.

I too was thinking Dobbs as the closest match for 2011-12 Conklin. There are few things more fun than watching an undersized low post player pick apart taller, more 'talented' opposition. Harris was better rebounder, but he didn't have the low post repertoire of either of those 2. Indeed Dobbs was better than Conklin is now, but if Conklin gets us to the dance - and his performance @X was a huge step in that direction - he's fit to be used in the same breath with DD.

The most impressive aspect of Conklin's season is that he's bringing his best performances against the toughest competition. He's a POY candidate, but if it's a coin toss between him and a player from an east coast school (e.g. Temple's Ramone Moore), the east coast player is going to win (like when Kevin Anderson got the award over Jordan Crawford). That being said, first team all conference is definitely a possibility - and honestly even being named 3rd team in a conference this deep is a major accomplishment for any player.

U-verse channel guide currently has the game listed on both 691 and 1691(HD). Indeed, the game is also being carried (nationally, I presume) on FSCA (Fox College Sports Atlantic), which is part of the sports tier on U-Verse (647 - right there with Big10 and CBSSN) and Charter (400). No HD on that option, but it does increase the number of hoops junkies and sports bar patrons across the country who will see it. I like the attitude, but be careful what you wish for. Back in 1998 the Bills were 17-6, riding a 5-game win streak, with 19th ranked Cincy coming to town...and the world saw us get smoked 70-43 on ESPN.

Dayton is currently 4-1 and haven't had an 'easy' game yet. They have to be considered a top contender. With Archie Miller on the sideline, these aren't your older brother's Flyers. Even assuming they drop road games at SLU and X, they should coast through their remaining home games (URI, Duq, Char, UMass, GW), and would only need 2 road wins from this pool @SJU, @Fordham, @Duquesne, @Richmond to get to 11-5. Everything I read about Umass' Kellogg suggests that he's not a good Xs and Os coach. He could be the heir to Brian Gregory's throne. I'm not terribly concerned about UMass. If history has taught us anything, it's that X and Temple are going to grind out enough wins to finish top 4 and make the dance. It's tough to handicap La Salle (or SLU) for that matter given what we've seen thus far. That Feb 11th match-up looms large.

Xavier has not lost an A10 home game since 2/28/06. It's not a must win. It's going to be 8 on 5...this will be tougher than @NM or vs Temple...it will take the best game we've played all year to pull it out. UMass will be tough because it's such a quick turnaround travel wise, but Majerus should be able to coach circles around Kellogg.

No one is counting anything, just realistically sizing up the task at hand. There's not one game we've played that we couldn't have won, had we cut down on the turnovers and made better use of critical possessions. The Charlotte game was in many ways our most impressive win to date, and there's still much room for improvement. We proved we can beat an RPI top 100 team in their gym (something we'll need to do at least twice more if we're to have any chance of an at-large bid). We proved we can erase a double-digit deficit. Most importantly, we saw a glimpse of Mitchell/McCall/Jett on the floor together wreaking havoc. Not to slight the heroics of Conklin, Evans, and Ellis, but this team is only going so far as our triumvirate of speedy guards can carry us.

Unless something dramatic happens and our OOC opponents all go on simultaneous tears through their remaining regular season schedules, our at-large resume is going to hinge on our high standing within a tough A-10 conference. 5th place ain't gonna cut it...and 4th puts us on the bubble, with the A10 quarterfinal against the 5th (or 12th) place team serving as an eliminator game. We need to distinguish ourselves in the A10. A tie for 2nd at 12-4 should be enough, provided we don't embarrass ourselves getting blown out by a lower seed in A10 quarterfinal. If we finish in 3rd place at 11-5, we're going to need a solid showing in Atlantic City to get in. Forget the A10 tournament...just split with X, win every other game and claim the goddamn regular season A10 title (last split regular season championship was 1971, last outright was 1957).

The A10 will not likely get more than 4, and in X and Temple are definitely included in any 4-bid scenario. There are a handful of teams with realistic shots at the 3rd and 4th at-large bids, and there's even more teams that could be dangerous in the A10 tournament. Bottom line: this isn't going to be easy. We can't finish 4th in the conference, then lose the A10 quarterfinal to the 5th place team and expect to make the dance.

Rene Knott makes Rich Gould look like Bob Costas. Conklin talked about how people jumped off the bandwagon last year, and now they're coming back, etc... Nothing significant transpired.

c u m hoc ergo propter hoc No s h i t if they're ranked in the final poll they'll make the tournament. That's beside the point. First of all, I was speaking to the argument that being ranked consistently indirectly boosts their seed. Being ranked in March is MUCH different from being ranked in December. It's better to be ranked once late in the year, than be ranked every week Nov-Jan, but not in Feb/March. Secondly, not everyone voting in the weekly polls takes their voting responsibility seriously. The committee members know this. While they may not be as informed as the best writers/coaches, they're at least engaged in a vetting process that considers the body of work for each team (unlike some weekly poll voters). It's my perception that the committee (the adults) are - for better or worse - too arrogant to let the opinions of the coaches and writers (the children) influence their decisions. The objective is to make the tournament, not the top 25. If anything being ranked only fires up the opposition and makes it harder to win. LMU is 2-0 against the top 25 teams and 2-4 against all other D1 opponents.

I'm not so sure this is true. Gonzaga was ranked #6 one year and ended up a 6-seed. Being ranked is nice because it turns heads in the media who might otherwise not pay attention at all, and surely it helps with recruiting - but it's not inherently boosting our NCAA prospects. At the end of the season, the committee going to look at our quality wins, (hopefully lack of) bad losses, not our weekly ranking history. Also, it's dumb to worry about seeding when the 32 teams seeded 5 thru 12 are typically capable of beating each other on any given night. Bottom line: Beat the teams we're supposed to beat in December, finish in the top 2 in the A10, and everything works out naturally.

there is concern on the nova board...

When SLU cracked the AP poll at #24 on 1/17/94 after starting the season 13-0, it was their first national ranking since 12/29/64* The 1994 team peaked at #16 on 2/28, when they were 20-3 having most recently beaten Cincy to finish the season undefeated at home. *only 10 teams were ranked from 1961-68, while 20 teams were ranked from 1949-1960, 1969-89, now 25 from 1990-present

I wish we had footage of the sold out Arena in '93 or Larry's 37 point rampage in '97...but this will have to do watch for the Chris Lowery cameo as he admires Orlando's double clutch game winning shot

It would appear this battle has already been fought, and won...