Wiz Question

[Taj79]

Wiz ---- what is your sysytem showing as the line for Xavier @ Dayton this Saturday?

[The Wiz]

Wiz ---- what is your sysytem showing as the line for Xavier @ Dayton this Saturday?

Should be a good game but you will have to wait till tomorrow for the answer.....after tonight's game between St. J vs X. This will be an evenly matched game with X being favored over St. J because of home cooking ( X has won 3 in a row at home). So while you wait for Thursday's X vs Dayton prediction..... Here is the St. J vs X prediction........ X by 3 1/2 over St. J.

[MB73]

The real world line is Xavier - 6. I like Xavier a LOT in this spot.

[moytoy12]

The real world line is Xavier - 6. I like Xavier a LOT in this spot.

Do you understand the difference between what Wiz is doing and what Vegas is doing?

[BACKHANDtheRICAN]

Do you understand the difference between what Wiz is doing and what Vegas is doing?

+1

MB73 does not understand.

[MB73]

Do you understand the difference between what Wiz is doing and what Vegas is doing?

Please explain, then.

In his top 25 he says we are better than Michigan, K State, WV, a lot of others, and we are 18th best team in D-1. Last week he said we were better than Georgetown. I say, uh, we are not there yet, haven't beat a good team (OK?) and no good road wins and SOS is weak. Dozens of others with superior SOS have quality wins against top 30-40 teams and some solid road wins.

Now he says X is 3.5 pts over St. Joe, fine; Vegas says betting line is X - 6. I merely state that IMO X will win by more than 6, probably a blowout. So, tell me, wtf are you referring to?

(do YOU think we are 18th in D-1 based upon our SOS, quality wins, wins on the road, etc?)

[WestCoastBilliken]

I got to go with MB73. I think Xavier takes this past 6 points. I would take -3.5 all day on this game.

Oh yeah, I also think we are no where near the 18th best team in the USA. And yes, I have read how and why Wiz picks what he picks and enjoy his run downs a lot. But, I just dont agree with the 18th best team in the USA. Not even close right now.

[moytoy12]

Please explain, then.

In his top 25 he says we are better than Michigan, K State, WV, a lot of others, and we are 18th best team in D-1. Last week he said we were better than Georgetown. I say, uh, we are not there yet, haven't beat a good team (OK?) and no good road wins and SOS is weak. Dozens of others with superior SOS have quality wins against top 30-40 teams and some solid road wins.

Now he says X is 3.5 pts over St. Joe, fine; Vegas says betting line is X - 6. I merely state that IMO X will win by more than 6, probably a blowout. So, tell me, wtf are you referring to?

(do YOU think we are 18th in D-1 based upon our SOS, quality wins, wins on the road, etc?)

As i understand it, Vegas has a betting line (a line to get bets on both sides to get as close to equal as possible) and Wiz provides a line for what he or his program thinks the actual outcome will be (regardless of where the betting public is putting its money).

Seems to me, you have confused the two quite a bit over the last couple of weeks.

It doesn't mean i always agree with the line that Wiz produces.

Now, to your change in subject, do i think SLU is the 18th best team in the USA? No. Do I think they have played like a top 15 during this season, yes. I think we could have beat anyone the day we played washington. At times, have we looked like a team ranked between 50-65, yes. On average, i think we are a top 30-35 team, probably closer to 30.

[2010andBeyond]

The real world line is Xavier - 6. I like Xavier a LOT in this spot.

I guess that settles it for me: taking sju and the points

[For-DaLove]

I guess that settles it for me: taking sju and the points

No contest...Duke wins it going away. Coach K never loses games in January. He also runs a clean program.

[jbizzle09]

From my understanding, the Wiz's system is pretty close to Sagarin. I think the reason SLU ranks so high in his program is because of the margin of voctories for SLU (all except Charlotte were by double digits), the closeness of the losses (no loss by more than 7 points, with an OT game thrown in) and that 3 of the 4 losses were on the road. I think he also takes into account offensive and defensive efficiency. Thus, by raw numbers, you can see the justification for his ranking.

Lie all rankings out there, it is subjective. And since it is driven solely by statistics, it is a slave to the numbers, and not any kind of 'eye test'. I think Wiz has done a good job this season trying to give us a better understanding on how he is coming up with his rankings. I especially like how he is giving us grades for the teams we face. It helps to simplify it for us.

[SShoe]

Correct me if I'm wrong, but I think one issue with Wiz's system and any other of the computer-based formulas is that it doesn't take into account intangibles such as injuries, suspensions, etc. In the case of Xavier, they would likely be undervalued in his ranking because of their suspensions and the psychological impact the fight and suspensions appeared to have on them for a while. At full strength, I'm inclined to believe they're a better team than their Pomeroy, RPI, or Wiz rating, hence the fairly significant difference between Vegas' and Wiz's spread.

[MB73]

As i understand it, Vegas has a betting line (a line to get bets on both sides to get as close to equal as possible) and Wiz provides a line for what he or his program thinks the actual outcome will be (regardless of where the betting public is putting its money). Seems to me, you have confused the two quite a bit over the last couple of weeks. It doesn't mean i always agree with the line that Wiz produces. Now, to your change in subject, do i think SLU is the 18th best team in the USA? No. Do I think they have played like a top 15 during this season, yes. I think we could have beat anyone the day we played washington. At times, have we looked like a team ranked between 50-65, yes. On average, i think we are a top 30-35 team, probably closer to 30.

Your response suggests you are the one who is confused.

"As you understand it... Vegas"... tells me you do not get it. I understand it, I don't think you do, sure, The Wiz is taking a stab at this with his own "numbers".

He had Bills by 5 1/2 over Charlotte. And he says we are 18th in NCAA.

As for Washington, it is not who you play, it is when you play them. I completely understand our loss to Loyola, it was what Vegas would call a "letdown" game.

But we should have won at NM and / or at Dayton (without one of their top players) if we were to be considered top notch. And we should have controlled the game against Carlotte, thank god Ellis came though.

Yep, we beat a young Washington team at home at 11am CST, they had to get up at about 5am their time that morning. They had a lot of young 4* talent starting for the first time and it was their first road trip. Who TF is SLU, they were thinking. So they were down 50-25 at halftime. Any veteran gambler will tell you that west coast teams (NFL, NCAA, etc) struggle in early noon type games, but this was the ultimate, unbelievable, a young team, 11am start, Romar was a fool to schedule it, but he probably wanted to get back to Washington that night for school the next day. Washington will develop their young talent over the year and will be a high RPI team, so our victory will seem better.

[MB73]

I guess that settles it for me: taking sju and the points

You want SJ + 3.5, the Wiz line, good luck, ha!

[jbizzle09]

Your response suggests you are the one who is confused. "As you understand it... Vegas"... you do not get it.

I UNDERSTAND IT, I dont think YOU do, and I understand the Wiz is taking a stab at this with his own "numbers". He had Bills by 5 1/2 over Charlotte. And he says we are 18th in NCAA.

As for Washington, it is not who you play, it is when you play them.

I completely understand our loss to Loyola, it was what Vegas would call a "letdown" game. But we should have won at NM and / or at Dayton (without one of their top players) if we were to be considered top notch. And we should have controlled the game against Carlotte, thank god Ellis came though.

YES, we beat a young Washington team at 11am CST, they had to get up at about 5am their time that morning. They had a lot of young 4* talent starting for the first itme and it was their first road trip. Who TF is SLU, they were thinking. So they were down 50-25 at halftime. Any veteran expert gambler will tell you that west coast teams (NFL, NCAA, etc) struggle in early noon type games, this was the ultimate, unbelievable, 11am, Romar was a fool to schedule it, but he probably wanted to get back to Washington that night for school the next day. Washington will develop their young talent over the year and will be a high RPI team, so our victory will seem better.

YOU are the one who is confused.

To be honest, Wiz's line in the Charlotte game looked on point until the last 30 seconds. SLU was up by 13 points with less than 4 minutes to go and decided to clock it. With 40 seconds left the Bills were up by 7 points. The Bills took the lead for good when McCall hit a trey with 8:33 left in the game. While we had to sweat a couple of hero shots that the 49ers pulled out in the final 30 seconds (Mayfield from about 30 feet out, Barnett with a trey down 4 with 3 seconds left), along with missed front ends of 1+1s, the lead was never given up.

His spread not being met was actually the direct result of Barnett's make (down 2 possessions) and McCall missing both of his free throws with 1 second left. It just as easily could have ended a 6 point win for the Bills. The last 20 seconds of the game was pretty much all for naught.

I can understand your point about Washington, but I think you've tried too hard to hammer the point home and it just comes out to making an excuse for an opponent, a BCS one at that. Yes, they had a 2 time zone difference to deal with, so you can make the point that it would be like playing at 9 AM for them. However, they also hadn't played since the previous Monday, so they weren't going on fumes at that point. They had ample rest prior to the game. In fact, they played Duke at Madison Square Garden a couple of weeks later, with a 12 PM start time, and ended up losing by 6. That was the same situation, as it was a 3 hour difference and the same EST tipoff time, but they actually finished closer against a better team.

[moytoy12]

Your response suggests you are the one who is confused.

"As you understand it... Vegas"... tells me you do not get it. I understand it, I don't think you do, sure, The Wiz is taking a stab at this with his own "numbers".

No, I'm not confused.

Vegas is a betting line. They are not trying to predict the outcome of the game. They are trying to get equal money on both sides of the action.

Wiz's program, is predicting an actual outcome on the game. Wiz, feel free to correct me if i'm wrong.

Do you understand the difference of trying to get people to bet (vegas) and trying to predict the winner (Wiz)?

And come up with all the excuses you want about Washington. SLU looked incredible that game. If SLU played like that against UNM, UD, Temple and LMU, we'd be undefeated and in the top 10. Our team showed the potential to be a top 10 team on a given day.

Unfortunately, we have shown the ability to be a sub-50 team (e.g. LMU).

I think we're a top 30-35 team. Presumably, you don't.

I know, I know, we'll be lucky to win 19 games and get into the NIT, right? Hey, if you want to be a SLU fan that downplays our positives this year, go ahead. I mean, if I had as many poor predictions as you, I'd probably be coming up with every excuse in the book to justify my prior predictions.

[moytoy12]

I'm guessing the Wiz would agree with me on the difference between his line and Vegas'. See post #1 here: http://www.billikens...l=&fromsearch=1

[BACKHANDtheRICAN]

No, I'm not confused.

Vegas is a betting line. They are not trying to predict the outcome of the game. They are trying to get equal money on both sides of the action.

Wiz's program, is predicting an actual outcome on the game. Wiz, feel free to correct me if i'm wrong.

Do you understand the difference of trying to get people to bet (vegas) and trying to predict the winner (Wiz)?

And come up with all the excuses you want about Washington. SLU looked incredible that game. If SLU played like that against UNM, UD, Temple and LMU, we'd be undefeated and in the top 10. Our team showed the potential to be a top 10 team on a given day.

Unfortunately, we have shown the ability to be a sub-50 team (e.g. LMU).

I think we're a top 30-35 team. Presumably, you don't.

I know, I know, we'll be lucky to win 19 games and get into the NIT, right? Hey, if you want to be a SLU fan that downplays our positives this year, go ahead. I mean, if I had as many poor predictions as you, I'd probably be coming up with every excuse in the book to justify my prior predictions.

Boytoy > MB73

[MB73]

No, I'm not confused.

Vegas is a betting line. They are not trying to predict the outcome of the game. They are trying to get equal money on both sides of the action.

Wiz's program, is predicting an actual outcome on the game. Wiz, feel free to correct me if i'm wrong.

Do you understand the difference of trying to get people to bet (vegas) and trying to predict the winner (Wiz)?

And come up with all the excuses you want about Washington. SLU looked incredible that game. If SLU played like that against UNM, UD, Temple and LMU, we'd be undefeated and in the top 10. Our team showed the potential to be a top 10 team on a given day.

Unfortunately, we have shown the ability to be a sub-50 team (e.g. LMU).

I think we're a top 30-35 team. Presumably, you don't.

I know, I know, we'll be lucky to win 19 games and get into the NIT, right? Hey, if you want to be a SLU fan that downplays our positives this year, go ahead. I mean, if I had as many poor predictions as you, I'd probably be coming up with every excuse in the book to justify my prior predictions.

Of couse, again, I get the difference, Vegas lines vs Wiz, yes, duh. X by 3 1/2.

And his SLU # 18 ranking. Some computer system he has. He seems like a good guy but no way 18th. I wish.

I would say our results suggest we are a top 60-75 team, but we have the potential to move up, if we can play some good ball, Ellis hits his shots (the KEY), etc, etc, and go on a 10-2 run in the final games we can get into the top 30-40 or so. But if not, then, here we are again.

We do not have a quality win over a top 50 team, have a weak > 100 SOS and no good road wins. When we beat BC, Nova, and OK, wow, I, too, overreacted. But it was not what we thought. And the Washington game was not an excuse thing, it is very real, teams traveling 1,000+ miles, especially west to east, that play early morning games do poorly. I looked into it and SLU was 5 pt favorite, thought we would be getting 4-5, drooling... I chickend out, would not lay the 5 even though I knew the 1,000+ mile trend.

Hey, if we had not made that great 14 pt comeback against sh*tty Charlotte, there would be chaos on this board. A one point victory,what a difference.

Seriously, have you ever been to Las Vegas? Ever wagered $ 100 on a game? By the way, 63.4% of the betting is on Xavier - 6. And Vegas does not try to get equal betting on each side, that is a myth. Do some research for a year or two and get back to me.

[waldo027]

Sagarin points predictor (one of the best around): #19

Kenpom: #17

Wiz's system: #18

That's where SLU is in those 3 predictive rating systems. They are intended to set point spreads and predict future results. If you want to predict future results, you have to look beyond W-L record and RPI. No one has said we have a top 20 resume at this moment. According to both Kenpom and Sagarin, SLU would be favored on a neutral court over everyone in the A-10, as well as teams like Marquette, Louisville, Illinois, Purdue, UConn, and West Virginia.

http://www.usatoday.com/sports/sagarin/bkt1112.htm

Pick 2 teams, look at the blue numbers on the right side, subtract them, add 3 points for home court advantage, and there's your predicted outcome. If you want to know what Kenpom predicts, you can ask me, I have a subscription.

[WestCoastBilliken]

You do not know who you are dealing with, of couse, again, I get the difference, Vegas lines vs Wiz, yes, duh.

And his SLU # 18 ranking. Some computer system he has. Seem like a good guy but no way 18th. I wish.

I would say our results suggest we are a top 60-75 team, and if we can play some good ball, Ellis hits his shots (the KEY), etc, etc, and go on a 10-2 run in the final games we can get into the 35-40 or so. But if not, then, here we are again.

We do not have a quality win over a top 50 team, have a weak > 100 SOS and no good road wins. When we beat BC, Nova, and OK, wow, I, too, overreacted.

And if we had not made that 14 pt comeback against sh*tty Charlotte, there would be chaos on this board. A one point victory,what a difference.

Seriously, have you ever been to Las Vegas? Ever wagered > $ 100 on a game? By the way, 63.4% of the wagering is on Xavier - 6. And Vegas does not try to get equal betting on each side.

You read my mind, except I think we are solid 50-55 team right now. We have seen a few flashes this year where we play at a top 20 level, but those in the top 20 dont have flashes... they are solid most of the time. I could care less what Sagarin or Kenpom say. This is a top 50 team right now and unless we show some fire under our asses we are going to stay around there. I have already given my prediction in another thread... 8 and 4 from here on out. Maybe 7 and 5. We lose both Xavier (H and A) and Dayton games.

Here is to hoping something comes around though and I am proven wrong.....

[moytoy12]

Of couse, again, I get the difference, Vegas lines vs Wiz, yes, duh. X by 3 1/2.

No you don't. Or at least not until it was explained to you in this thread.

Seriously, have you ever been to Las Vegas? Ever wagered > $ 100 on a game? By the way, 63.4% of the wagering is on Xavier - 6. And Vegas does not try to get equal betting on each side, that is a myth. Do some research for a year and get back to me.

Now, I don't know the credibility of any of these sites, but there quite a few of them that say the same thing:

http://www.ultimatecapper.com/sports-betting-articles-08.htm -

Odds makers will tell you their job is not to predict an event's outcome but, rather divide the public as to who it thinks will win. "When the oddsmakers have set a point spread properly," said Howard Martin, a noted expert on how odds are calculated, "there will be an equal number of people betting each side of the line."

http://entertainment.howstuffworks.com/sports-betting2.htm

Oddsmakers don't try to predict the outcome of the game when setting point spreads. If a team is favored by seven points, that doesn't mean that the oddsmaker necessarily thinks it will win by seven points. The oddsmaker's goal when setting the line is to keep an equal number of bets on both sides of the game. The betting public's perception of the game can be as important as the actual comparison of the two teams.

http://www.acsportsbooks.com/sportsbetting/102/linemoves.htm

Sportsbooks generally profit though taking equal action on both sides of a game. This means that they look to get the same amount of money bet on one team as the other team. The fee in taking the bets, either the difference in the money line or the vig in the spread (-110), is where they make their profits.

Why do oddsmakers try to keep the action even on both sides of a bet? A bookie's worst fear is being "sided." This happens when many bets come in on one side of a game. If that side turns out to be the winning side, the bookie will lose a lot of money. Ideally, half the bettors lose, and their money goes to pay off the other half, who won, with the bookie taking the vig.

[MB73]

Sagarin points predictor (one of the best around): #19

Kenpom: #17

Wiz's system: #18

That's where SLU is in those 3 predictive rating systems. They are intended to set point spreads and predict future results. If you want to predict future results, you have to look beyond W-L record and RPI. No one has said we have a top 20 resume at this moment. According to both Kenpom and Sagarin, SLU would be favored on a neutral court over everyone in the A-10, as well as teams like Marquette, Louisville, Illinois, Purdue, UConn, and West Virginia.

http://www.usatoday....rin/bkt1112.htm

Pick 2 teams, look at the blue numbers on the right side, subtract them, add 3 points for home court advantage, and there's your predicted outcome. If you want to know what Kenpom predicts, you can ask me, I have a subscription.

I am familiar with Sagarin. He puts us 34th (not 18th) and Temple 47th even though they beat us on our court and they beat Duke, etc. And ranks us over Xavier and Dayton and everybody in the A-10. How does he figure that?

Sure, this is all for debate, but remember the NCAA & NIT committees look for 1) quality wins 2) good road wins and 3) strength of schedule and we have none of those yet. We can do it but need to go 10-2 or so, beat X once or twice and Dayton here and St. Joe on the road, etc, to get "there".

It will help if Washington matures and does well in the Pac-12, that will make us look better, but if we are on the bubble for NCAA or NIT the committee will understand that we played them early in the yr, a lot of new young players, and, yes, the 11am game.

[MB73]

No you don't. Or at least not until it was explained to you in this thread.

Now, I don't know the credibility of any of these sites, but there quite a few of them that say the same thing:

http://www.ultimatec...articles-08.htm -

Odds makers will tell you their job is not to predict an event's outcome but, rather divide the public as to who it thinks will win. "When the oddsmakers have set a point spread properly," said Howard Martin, a noted expert on how odds are calculated, "there will be an equal number of people betting each side of the line."

http://entertainment...ts-betting2.htm

Oddsmakers don't try to predict the outcome of the game when setting point spreads. If a team is favored by seven points, that doesn't mean that the oddsmaker necessarily thinks it will win by seven points. The oddsmaker's goal when setting the line is to keep an equal number of bets on both sides of the game. The betting public's perception of the game can be as important as the actual comparison of the two teams.

http://www.acsportsb...2/linemoves.htm

Sportsbooks generally profit though taking equal action on both sides of a game. This means that they look to get the same amount of money bet on one team as the other team. The fee in taking the bets, either the difference in the money line or the vig in the spread (-110), is where they make their profits.

Why do oddsmakers try to keep the action even on both sides of a bet? A bookie's worst fear is being "sided." This happens when many bets come in on one side of a game. If that side turns out to be the winning side, the bookie will lose a lot of money. Ideally, half the bettors lose, and their money goes to pay off the other half, who won, with the bookie taking the vig.

That is like the Cub Scout version of gambling. Hilarious.

Most games 65-70% or more is bet on one side, and the books anticipate it and skew the spread. They know who the public will like, and mop up when heavily bet sides do not cover.

Tonight there are about 40 games, you think it is 50-50 on every game? Never, ever, ever. Again, that is the myth.

Here, look at something "real", go to the column "spread %"... it shows 78% of betting on Xavier.

http://pregame.com/s....aspx?sport=cbb

This is one REAL database, there are others for offshore, etc, but ALL the time, it is this way.

74 % of bettors had the New Orleans Saints - 3.5 Saturday against the SF 49ers. Sure, the books lose some games but mop up in the long run even though it is not 50-50 as the fairy tale version suggests.

[moytoy12]

That is like the Cub Scout version of gambling. Hilarious.

Most games 65-70% or more is bet on one side, and the books anticipate it and skew the spread. They know who the public will like, and mop up when heavily bet sides do not cover.

Tonight there are about 40 games, you think it is 50-50 on every game? Never, ever, ever. Again, that is the myth.

Here, look at something "real", go to the column "spread %"... it shows 78% of betting on Xavier.

http://pregame.com/s....aspx?sport=cbb

This is one REAL database, there are others for offshore, etc, but ALL the time, it is this way.

74 % of bettors had New Orleans - 3.5 Saturday against SF. Think the bookies lost????? Sure, they lose some games but mop up in the long run even though it is not 50-50.

Thanks. I just got my fishing badge last week.

The goal is to get equal action, it doesn't mean they always or ever get equal action.

I bet you mop up the Vegas sports books. You're probably accessing billikens.com from your italian villa right now.

The point is, you didn't understand the difference between Vegas' line and what Wiz produced as his line. That's evident. Happy betting.