RPI Problems

[kshoe]

The RPI in its current format is a farce!

Pitt deserved to be in regardless of last nights outcome.

[kwyjibo]

So does Bucknell deserve a bid because they beat Pitt at Pitt? West Virginia beat Pitt twice? Does being worthy of special consideration depend on having a good game shown on TV?

Pitt's RPI troubles are completely of their own making with any incredibly easy non-conf schedule played nearly exclusively at home. Shouldn't teams be punished for things of their own making?

I agree they are a decent team but so is Holy Cross (at least they could beat Bucknell) and no one on an international sports network is crying for their inclusion. For the record, I am not saying they are not worthy just that everyone should be evaluated the same way (unlike last year where Washington was annointed by the media despite all their losses, Richmond beat Kansas on TV, and yet TV-free Utah St. was screwed despite losing 3 games all year!).

[kshoe]

Sagarin has Louisville 9, SIU 27 and Pitt 29

Old RPI (from CBS Sportsline) has Louisville 20, SIU 21 and Pitt 28

Pomeroy has Louisville 13, SIU 24 and Pitt 23

Those that believe the RPI is king with Lousville at 24, SIU at 12, and Pitt at 45 are in for a rude awakening come selection Sunday. The RPI is the outlier, not the other way around.

[billiken_roy]

why did pitt deserve to be in regardless? they played no one out of conference to speak of? you want them in just because they are in the big east? that is exactly why i like the changes is that it appears it is taking away the previous big conference bias. maybe such a rule change will force the likes of pitt to go play the mvc teams or the future cusa teams instead of (319) Howard, (208) Robert Morris, (312) Loyola MD, (190) St. Francis PA, (285) Duquesne, and (242) Penn St.

even their "good" out of conference games are nothing to brag about. (112) Coppin St., (134) Richmond, (88) South Carolina, (74) Bucknell, (119) Memphis

[billiken_roy]

your comparison of holy cross vs pitt is great. the typical casual fan thinks pitt is it, but the fact is the likes of holy cross is probably a better team and played a tougher schedule. while the tweaks might not be perfect, i applaud the attempt to take the old same ole same ole deserving teams out of the automatic picture. anything to force the big conference teams to play the mid majors especially on the road is fantastic and long overdue.

[billiken_roy]

if what you are saying comes true and they ignore their own rpi adjustments, it will make the committee look like hacks. of course then as the tourney unfolds and the siu's and pacifics win games as the worse seed, billy fudge packer will be screaming about upsets, as will dickie v, and i will be throwing up.

[kshoe]

Richmond, South Carolina and Memphis were coming off NCAA births. Memphis was pre-season top 25 in many minds. How are they to kow that those teams would all suck?

Playing in state rival Duquesne from the A-10 and in state rival Penn St. from the Big 10 is also not shying away from much. Also played in state St Francis Robert Morris and Bucknell. For a guy that has consistently slammed SLU for not plying the local teams you are bashing Pitt for playing 5 in state teams that just happened to suck?

Most of the softness in their schedule was not their fault.

[kwyjibo]

See my other post about the difference between better handicapping (like Sagarin) and who deserves a tourney bid. They are not the same thing. To reiterate an important point to me not mentioned in my other post, Sagarin uses margin-of-victory which will give you some important info for handicapping but that is NOT the same thing as who should get a tourney bid.

Tourney bids should be based on some objective profile (and luckily they nearly always are). Pitt will get in or not based on their merit (there are still games left). There is always lobbying and usually that logic is far worse than the final selections.

Yes, in the road/home RPI Pitt was punished for playing nearly all their non-conf games at home. You can use corrective logic on your own bracket sheets but that should not effect tournament selection and only minimally impact seeding. Me, I know Pitt's perimeter defense is flawed so I know a team with 3 outside shooting options has a real good shot at taking them down.

[Billiphan]

Agreed. I thought BAB was saying if you have a top 64 RPI than you're almost guaranteed to get a bid. I understand his point now but thought he was trying to prove something else earlier.

This is a much more enjoyable discussion when SLU is one of the bubble teams to discuss. Hopefully that will be the case next year.

[billiken_roy]

i agree with it not being there fault to a degree, but that doesnt make it right to leap over a lot of teams that indeed did play tougher schedules and have higher rpi's.

my point was always why play the likes of ipufw or sacramento state instead of sms or illinois state or semo when assessing the dreaded "buy games".

[StLouBlue]

For the last 3 years Pitt has had Robert Morris, St Fran PA, Duquesne & Penn St on the schedule. They also go on the road each year to either Duquesne or Penn St. I think it is great that they are playing the other Div 1 schools in the state. I guess I question why they added Loyola MD, Howard & Bucknell to the schedule. Lucky or unlucky for them Bucknell improved to help their SOS, but of course Bucknell also beat them.

Here are the RPI's for the last 3 years for the bad teams on their schedule.

Howard 05-319, 04-321, 03-261

R Morris 05-208, 04-217, 03-284

Loyola MD 05-312, 04-322, 03-307

St Fran PA 05-190, 04-249, 03-221

Duquesne 05-285, 04-162, 03-243

Penn St 05-242, 04-189, 03-202

Bucknell 05-74, 04-216 ,03-236

Now keep in mind R Morris, St Fran PA, Duquesne & Penn St were on the schedule for 04 & 03. In 04 they also played Youngstown St RPI 257, New Hampshire RPI 273 and William & Mary 265. In 03 they also played Ark PB RPI 312, Norfolk St 282 and SE LA 252.

From looking at this I think anyone can see Pitt likes to have many cupcakes on their schedule. Now they probably did think South Carolina & Memphis would be better than they have ended up, but I am having a hard time feeling sorry for Pitt and their schedule.

[kshoe]

are the top remaining non-conference champions. In my opinion margin of victory should be a factor in determing the best team. Take for instance two 8-2 teams that both played similar opponents. One wins every game by 30 points and lost both on buzzer beaters. The other wins every game by 2 points and got blown out of the gym in the two losses. How can anybody in their right mind say those two teams are equal? The RPI does.

Throw in that maybe the team that barely wins each game played one extra game on the road and now they are better than the dominant team?

The RPI is messed up and the 1.4/0.6 numbers are just everyon's guess at what they should be. Nobody knows what they real formula the NCAA will use is and thus the RPI ratings everybody sees could be significantly different then the real numbers the NCAA uses.

[billiken_roy]

you are advocating running up scores? that is wrong.

[Whatsasaluki]

>I have no axe to grind since the Bills have no shot at

>anything but man the RPI is messed up this year by adding in

>the home-away factor. They overshot all believability.

>

>Not to pick on a local team but who do people think is

>better? Louisville with a 22-4 record with losses to Iowa,

>Kentucky, Houston and Memphis and wins over Stanford,

>Florida and Cinci twice or Southern Illinois who is 23-6 and

>has losses to Hawaii, Arkansas Little Rock, Louisianna

>Lafayette, Wichita St, Southwest Missouri and Northern Iowa.

>their only win over a team from a "power" conference is

>Vanderbilt. According to the RPI, SIU is the 12 best team

>while Louisville is 24th. This implies SIU is in line for a

>3 seed!

>

>I respect the MVC and I respect SIU a lot. But come on.

>Something is wrong here.

>

>Kansas is higher than Illinois. Akron, Buffalo and Holy

>Cross are higher than Georgia Tech.

>

>For those that believe the RPI is the ultimate predictor of

>who will make the field I think this year it will be

>different. There will be a lot of grumbling as bigger name

>teams from power conferences are picked before teams like

>Akron and Buffalo.

>

>http://kenpom.com/rpi.php

The uninformed will be interested to know that the MVC has winning records this year against the Big East, the SEC, and the Big 12. Northern Iowa took Cinncinatti to double OT on their home floor, Northern Iowa finished 3rd in the conference this year. What decent (non-BCS) teams do the BCS schools play on the road? None. Maybe if they did, and won, their RPIs would be higher.

[kshoe]

have diminishing returns for larger point victories. Additionally, I believe Pomeroy caps the maximum victory at 16 points.

Are you advocating that a team that wins by 1 point is equal to the team that wins by 30. Are you advocating that a one point loss is really the same as a 30 point loss?

[Bay Area Billiken]

It will be interesting to see how closely the NCAA follows this new RPI when selecting the tournament field. If the NCAA actually follows the new RPI as closely as it followed the old one in the past, that could finally force BCS teams from the big conferences to go on the road.

[billiken_roy]

a win is a win and a loss is a loss, however, if you make it part of the formula, you are inviting the likes of pitino and billy tubbs to make scores ridiculous.

[Bay Area Billiken]

After last night's buzzer beating loss at Wisconsin, Indiana is 14-12, 9-6 in the Big Ten, with an RPI of 68. All things being equal, Indiana would be out of the NCAA Tournament. However, as revealed on last night's telecast of that game, no team with at least 10 conference wins in the Big Ten has been left out of the NCAA Tournament except Michigan, which was on probation. Indiana closes the regular season at home against Northwestern, so IU will probably get those 10 conference wins. Will the NCAA give the Big Ten only 4 teams: Illinois, Wisconsin, Michigan State, and Minnesota, with Minnesota itself on the bubble with an RPI of 49?

[Schasz]

I think the Hoosiers better plan on winning the Big 10 if they want to assure themselves of a Big Dance invite. A bigger question as to the Hoosiers, if they don't make the Big Dance is Davis toast as HC?

[Bay Area Billiken]

And per kenpom.com, Indiana's RPI under the old formula is 41, a stark 27 spot loss. An RPI of 41 usually gets a team into the NCAA; an RPI of 68 usually results in the NIT. But what if that team is from the Big 10 and has 10 conference wins?

[cheeseman]

Given, that no one knows what goes on behind closed doors, anything can happen. It would not be the first time that a team with a 40's RPI got left out - usually they say to surprise conf. tourney winners but who knows who scratches whose back. In IU's defense, they are really coming on here at the end so that might also help them. Somehow big money always finds a way to help other big money groups/people.