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Posted

Big win over VCU...We didn't do everything great ...we did things good enough...good enough to win.  I liked the focus the team had for the full 40 min ..something that has been missing up until now. The computer liked the win but keeps us at a B.  The computer's chart showed us peaking after the St. J game and then sliding back some.  We have been moving sideways gradually drifting up slowly.   The machine thinks we are now at the highest point so far this season...slightly ahead of the St. J peak. A win tonight would  be a jolt for the numbers and show we are for real. Let's look at the game... 

Game preview... As mentioned , we are at B...Day comes in at B/ B+ (on the cusp). Day has a slight edge on the offense...in 3P and FTs...which the computer has wiped away...It is figuring our 3P slump seems to be ending and our FTs are under control at this point. With that said , we have the better defense...which should give us the  advantage.  This game is definitely not a sure thing.   The way I look at the spread, it is more about probability than actual score. When @Old guy comes on here with the Team Rankings forecast , TR always has a confidence rankings using their star system ...5 stars ...sure win..1 star.. low confidence.   On my system a 2pt spread is equal  to about a 53% chance to win the game.  Imagine a deck of cards...take out 3 black cards....then pick a card...our chances of picking a red card are the same as us beating Dayton.  The computer sees Day as about equal to VCU.  If we play like we did against VCU (we can actually do much better), we can win the game.  Wash--rinse --repeat--win. 

Top 4...The computer is now projecting  the top 4  as GM, SLU , VCU and Day...with St. J and & St. B if anyone falters.  As predicted Duq has started their fade. The computer still wants to see us get to B+ to make that Top 4 a lock. A win over Day would be a big step in that direction.

 

Report Card.... 

Report Card change....3 up...0 dn...6 unchanged = +3.......The card is looking good after the win over VCU. It is only fitting that one of the up categories is FT shooting...after weeks mired in the F range , we finally break to the upside. We have had a range of 13th ITN to bottom 7 ITN ...quite a ride.  Also this is a note from the VCU report card before the last game....  The one bright spot is Def 3P%. We should be able to shut VCU down from the arc. We did  at 16% and as a result we are now at A on 3 Def.

UP.....OFF....FT%....DEF....FG%....3P%

Dn....OFF....none...Reb...DEF...none

 

................SLU...............Day.................SLU......................Day

...........................OFF...........................................DEF..........

PPG...........C..................C.......................B............................B-

FG%..........B+.................B+....................B+.........................C

3P%...........C..................B+.....................A..........................D+

FT%..........D-.................C.........................................

Reb............C.................D-......................D.............................B

 OFF Rebs  = total Bills rebs...DEF Rebs = opp total reb

Top 100 In The Nation

SLU...

2P%....Team...2nd.........up......almost at the top

PPG.....Avila............76th....dn

............Jimerson.....84th...up

Asst....Swope........57th...dn

3PM......Jimerson...35th...dn

..............Swope.......52nd...dn

Reb....Anya............24th...dn

FG%...Anya..........76th ...dn

Day...

Stls...Cheeks...71st

Asst...Smith...23rd

Injuries...

SLU...

Casey & Dotzler...OFTS

Thames...Ques....1/29...undisclosed

Day

none

Keys to the game...Play with the same focus and intensity as the VCU game for 40 min.

WWN2D2W..... Target slash...48/ 36 / 73 ...Score 75...hold Day to 69...do either of these and we have a good chance to win...Hold the Day top 3 to 30 pts...win rebs by 2...keep TOs to around 10. The computer thinks The Bills are the better team...play like it and we win.

Bottom line...The Bills will be flying high with a win over Day. 

Posted

Team Rankings gives Dayton the win by1.5 pts with one star of confidence. This means that any team can win this game. It is a home game for us that I agree we can win. So, Go BIlls, bring down the flyers.

Posted

Dayton does not do well at all when teams are physical against them as we see from the past A10 games. Unfortunately we aren't the most physical team either. True toss up but I still think we get it by maybe 65-60

Posted

I was amazed to see that Dayton is #1 in the A10 conference 8 games played, at 3 FT% at 37.3%.  SLU is next to last at 30.2%, in 8 A10 games.

But flipping the script, SLU has the best Def FG 3% in A10 play at 21.3%, while Dayton is last at 38.7%.

Dayton has averaged 21 three point attempts in conference play, while the Bills are at almost 26 per game. 

I would expect the trend will continue with a lot of three's being fired up tonight.

Posted

Tough loss ...because we could have won this game. A lot went right ...one thing went wrong.

On the right side....Target slash...48/ 36 / 73...Pretty much right on...actual 47/ 39/ 64...needed one more 2 and 1 more FT to make the target...this was good enough to win...Rebs...we were within 1 ...again good enough.

On the wrong side...keep TOs to around 10... This was a failure . Post game the computer said we could have allowed 12 TOs and still won.  Unfortunately , we were not even close...19 TOs and the dagger...23 pts off those TOs...as Rammer would say ...BALL GAME.

The concern here is not that we had a bad TO night...but that 3 of the last 4 games have had between 17-19 TOs /gm. Remember 15-16 is considered an F-.   In the last 6 games we have given up nearly 18 pts /gm because of TOs...too many. Had we given up a normal amount of TOs  we would be undefeated in conference.

Protect the ball  = win games.

One last thing ...it doesn't take a computer to see that Avila had a bad night.  I noticed early on in the game he missed the first 3 FTs.  Not normal for a good foul shooter....this led to a 1-7  FG shooting night.  Again not normal for  good shooter...and then finally 7 TOs.  He had 7 TOs in the last game too. This from a guy that averaged under 3 TOs /gm.  And finally an asst/ TO ratio of about 1.5 has become  a 0.4 in the last 2 games.  Not good.  I am not picking on him...We need him to win games.  I am  just pointing out that something doesn't look right. I hope what ever it is ...it gets better or gets fixed soon.

Posted
9 hours ago, The Wiz said:

Tough loss ...because we could have won this game. A lot went right ...one thing went wrong.

On the right side....Target slash...48/ 36 / 73...Pretty much right on...actual 47/ 39/ 64...needed one more 2 and 1 more FT to make the target...this was good enough to win...Rebs...we were within 1 ...again good enough.

On the wrong side...keep TOs to around 10... This was a failure . Post game the computer said we could have allowed 12 TOs and still won.  Unfortunately , we were not even close...19 TOs and the dagger...23 pts off those TOs...as Rammer would say ...BALL GAME.

The concern here is not that we had a bad TO night...but that 3 of the last 4 games have had between 17-19 TOs /gm. Remember 15-16 is considered an F-.   In the last 6 games we have given up nearly 18 pts /gm because of TOs...too many. Had we given up a normal amount of TOs  we would be undefeated in conference.

Protect the ball  = win games.

One last thing ...it doesn't take a computer to see that Avila had a bad night.  I noticed early on in the game he missed the first 3 FTs.  Not normal for a good foul shooter....this led to a 1-7  FG shooting night.  Again not normal for  good shooter...and then finally 7 TOs.  He had 7 TOs in the last game too. This from a guy that averaged under 3 TOs /gm.  And finally an asst/ TO ratio of about 1.5 has become  a 0.4 in the last 2 games.  Not good.  I am not picking on him...We need him to win games.  I am  just pointing out that something doesn't look right. I hope what ever it is ...it gets better or gets fixed soon.

I guess we were F minus minus on TOs last night.

Posted
21 minutes ago, CenHudDude said:

I guess we were F minus minus on TOs last night.

Yes...It was F- by 3.

Let's look at why TOs are so damaging.   Let's start with the basic calculation. In a normal game The Bills would give up about 12 TOs.  Coincidently (but not coincidentally to the computer) that would have tied us with Dayton's 12  TOs (which is why the computer wanted us even on TOs).  From there, most basketball analysts would take the stats  "points off TOs" and figure the difference...23 (Day) - 7 (SLU)= 16  (16 extra pts  given away).  Many would stop there and say the Biills should have won the game by 8.   But a good part of TO damage is from the lost opportunity of the extra possessions The Bills would had....in this case  7 extra opportunities/possessions/shots.  In the game last night,  SLU shot 57% from 2pt range.  If the Bills take 7 more shots from 2 land they make 4 (57% again) or 8 more pts added to the 16pts we lost on the TO exchanges = 24 pts

Bottom line ...Had The Bills had an average night  we win by 16  (24 - the 8 we lost by)...This post is the long way of saying we should have won this game. On the non numbers side, it is hard to win 2 back to back high intensity games against the 2 best teams in the league.  Couple that with the humiliating  loss that Day suffered in the game before ours (St. B 75- Day 53) and they are playing a little bit harder with something to prove. 

We will have 1 ..maybe 2 more chances at them.  If we cut the TOs down , we can beat them.

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