The Wiz Posted December 14, 2023 Share Posted December 14, 2023 First, before we get started , a note about the TRO. When a player (Ezewiro) doesn't start the season and comes in somewhere in the middle, he usually isn't "game ready". Either his shooting or other basketball skills aren't at 100%. Also his endurance usually isn't at it's peak either and may player fewer minutes than normal. Many times a lesser sub(s) will be able to play at the same level because they are "game ready". For those reasons, (plus a lack of data) the computer says to leave the spread as is (even). In the simulations , the majority of them show a range of ....the Bills winning by 5 ...to the Bills losing by 5. The computer says if the Bills win by more than 5....the overage will be the "Ezewiro effect". General Outlook...The computer thought this was going to be an important game , even before the TRO...The TRO just puts an exclamation point on it. Besides the fact that the game is even...the computer sees the Bills season as even...as though this is a crossroads.. A win and the Bills can start to turn it around , a loss and we will continue to struggle. As for what the "Ezewiro effect" means, the computer says to comeback before the NC St game for an answer. Game Preview....This is the 2nd game in a row that is even...a first for Wiz spreads. When I saw that there was only 1 thing to do ...play the game on the computer...HOF vs La Tech on a neutral court....The answer was not a surprise...They came out even. A note here... just because these 2 teams were both even against the Bills doesn't mean they would be even against each other. Different matchups with evenly matched teams many times come up with different outcomes. But not this time. La Tech comes in at a rating of B vs the Bills who remain at C+. We have seen this before...a mid major...rated ahead of us ...with 1 or 2 dominate players(usually a big in there) who will try to shut us down on the inside and out shoot us from close in. First, lets start with introductions. First, a 3 school player (1 med red shirt in there) big guy (6'10") Mr LAT... Batcho 15th ITN in Rebs and 50th in blks....a good test for Ezewiro or whoever. Next up is Crawford who leads the team in Pts, Assts, 3P shooting and steals. Stop these 2 guys (or slow them down) and we win. Report Card.... Report card... after the last game the card is positive ...2 up ...1 down...point of information on the report card....while the LAT grades may look daunting compared to SLU...please note the LAT SOS is a C- and the Bills SOS is B+...makes a difference. Let's see what things look like.... ...................SLU......................LAT........................SLU.............................LAT .................................OFF..........................................................DEF............. PPG...............C-.......................C+...........................D.................................A+...12th ITN FG%...............D+.....................C..............................D-................................A+..7th ITN 3P%...............A-........................A-...........................C-................................B+ FT%...............B-.........................D+................................................ Reb...............D-..........................A.............................D-................................B- OFF Rebs = total rebs...DEF Rebs = opp reb UP...............Off....3P%......Def.....PPG Down.........Off......PPG.........Def....none Top 100 In The Nation SLU none LAT Rebs...Batcho...15th Blks........"......"......50th Stls.........Crawford...39th Injury /Illness report and misc The Bills.... Meadows...Dec 10...Questionable for Sat....Back Hughes....Dec 10....Quest for Sat...Unknown injury Parker ....Nov 17....Out indefinitely...fractured foot LAT.... none Keys to the Game......LAT is a good team....In addition to Crawford, Ree can also shoot 3s but doesn't take many shots per game. LAT, though does have some weaknesses. They will turn the ball over if bothered and they are susceptible to steals if we stay on them. In addition, they are not very good at FTs. WWN2D2W...Target slash...47/51/39/73....Hold their top 3 scorers to 32 pts .....No double double for Batcho...Beat them on TOs by 2 and steals by 3. Rebound within 3 of them.....In order to win we need to hold them to 70 pts. Bottom line....If we make our numbers, we can "pound" the Dogs. BJK likes this Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cowboy II Posted December 14, 2023 Share Posted December 14, 2023 -will be interesting to see how we deal with the shot blocker -Thanks Wiz, I hope for a couple good outcomes so your Christmas message doesn't get to 12 pages of what we need Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Wiz Posted December 17, 2023 Author Share Posted December 17, 2023 Post Game Review One of the best Bills games ever....Not to mention one of the best finishes of all time. Tip o' the cap to Hargrove who in the final 28 seconds of the game put the Billiken team on his back and carried them to victory by scoring 11 points in the final 28 seconds of a game. I know of no D1 game where 1 player scores that many points in the final 28 seconds to win a game. Amazing. I saw the Bills beat number 2 ranked Louisville ...this game was right up there with that one in intensity and excitement. Also , a 2nd tip o' the cap to Ezewiro making his debut ... 17 pts( 6-9 FG%). ..5 rebs(battling under the boards against the big bodies) and did all that in only 19 min. Does anyone remember any posts on the board that said ...what good is a player that averages 4 ppg on a losing , horrible GT team? As for the "Ezwiro effect"....Let me repost a comment I made in the "2023-24 season" thread yesterday before the game..... I think some posters are missing the point on the "Ezewiro effect"....It is not just about the points and the rebounds but the "X" factor. Players will go back to their more normal positions. There will be more opportunities to score ...for everyone. There will be more depth. We will no longer be as predictable. In other words , he makes the team better by just being in the mix. The concept of 4+1=6. For those having trouble grasping this concept, you have company as the computer too has this issue. But as outcomes and stats change the computer will adapt and "see" what is going on. Hopefully so will our fan base. Of course, after the game the computer thinks it's right...."see it was an even game" (meaning there was little "Ezewiro effect") but I argue back saying that even though we didn't increase the spread by a meaningful amount that doesn't mean their wasn't an "Ezewiro effect" not just because of his stats but because of the intangibles I mentioned above. After some back and forth the computer now agrees with me.....knowing that I can unplug it at any time. Hmm....don't you wish you could do that with some posters. Time to see what happened in the game... Some strange stuff in this game......we shot better from 3 than from 2.... LaT had NO TOs in the game ....something that hasn't happened in D1 in 14 years. We had 10 TOs which is an A+ score but in this game was a disaster....usually if you are on the downside of a 10 TO spread that spells automatic loss...usually, but not yesterday as we had the TJ point machine. LaT had 12 pts off TOs...TJ nearly wiped that out in 28 sec. So what was the key to winning...the SLASH....here was the projected slash... make it and we win the game (WWN2D2W)...47/51/39/73...and here is the actual....54/53/56/73.....Very nice line....As you have noticed , earlier this season I added 2P shooting to the slash....not something you normally see in a box score. I did so because when we started losing , one of the main reasons was missed 2 pt shots...bunnies and layups. The last 2 games against good teams that issue seems to be resolving itself. This bodes well for the team going forward. Shooting percentages ebb and flow...but you have got to make the bunnies and layups to win. And finally from the original post above.....The computer thought this was going to be an important game , even before the TRO...The TRO just puts an exclamation point on it. Besides the fact that the game is even...the computer sees the Bills season as even...as though this is a crossroads.. A win and the Bills can start to turn it around , a loss and we will continue to struggle. .This statement was true before the game and it is even more true afterwards. Bottom line....There were forecasting gurus that said a little over a week ago we wouldn't win anymore games until the end of January. I think I will stick to my computer and pass on the pundits. CenHudDude and David King like this Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
3star_recruit Posted December 17, 2023 Share Posted December 17, 2023 There was an Ezewiro effect, just not the one we expected. Big Brad at the 5 allowed everyone to play their natural position. But this is one of those nights were the opposing 4 was the most formidable two-way player on the floor. TJ couldn't get anything done offensively against him. The only impact Hargrove had on the game offensively were those glorious 28 seconds where he was playing the 5, saw the game slipping away and capitalized on his quickness advantage. To sum up, the 17 points Ezewiro had were nearly cancelled out by the 2 point game Hargrove was on the verge of having. willie likes this Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
almaman Posted December 17, 2023 Share Posted December 17, 2023 73 is the added stat for 2 pt shot in this case? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Wiz Posted December 17, 2023 Author Share Posted December 17, 2023 9 minutes ago, almaman said: 73 is the added stat for 2 pt shot in this case? No....73 is the FT stat. A 4 part slash reads like this...FG%/ 2P%/ 3P%/ FT% Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
almaman Posted December 17, 2023 Share Posted December 17, 2023 1 hour ago, The Wiz said: No....73 is the FT stat. A 4 part slash reads like this...FG%/ 2P%/ 3P%/ FT% Thnx Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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