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The Wiz

The Bills over Rich by 6

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I know a lot of people here on the board would rather have played Fordham because of our loss to Richmond back in January. This might be a good time to review a post I made as a post game analysis on Jan 31......

 

Every team, at least once a season whether they are good or bad has..." the game.." That game when they shoot  way above normal....Tonight it was Richmond's night. What does  "the game" look like....here is Richmond's slash...58/44/ 94...which grades out at  A+/ A+/ A+...You can' not beat a team that has that slash....yet , we almost did....a chance to beat a team  in the final seconds with a triple A+ slash .  Remember, ...Rich is not a good team ...not just because of their record but because of their numbers.  Take a look again at their report card ...their offense grades out just slightly ahead of us. Rich does not do this every night...yet tonight they played like Gonzaga. But again , we had victory within our grasp and it slipped away. How could it be that  Rich had Gonzaga like numbers...Let me digress for a moment to delve into what A+ means.....Right now Gonz is the number 1 shooting team  in the nation...with 52.4%....Richmond easily exceeded that tonight....Leigh is #1 in 3pt shooting with 45.6%  and Va Tech is #2  with 42.4%....So Rich comes in with a solid 2nd...and finally Hofstra is #1 in FTs with an 80.4 % ...Rich again far exceeds....The point is not to say that Rich is on par with any of these teams but to show what an extraordinary night they had. If we play them again  and we come up with the same numbers that we did tonight  (which were pretty average) ...we beat them next time.

The good news and the reason we had a chance to win was that a lot of things went right .   We beat them on TOs by 3...targeting  number was even...excellent effort against the # 7 team ITN for fewest TOs. ...In the last 2 1/2 minutes we forced 5 TOs more than half of what they give up in a whole game.... Makes you think that if we would have started that press 1 minute earlier , the result might have been different. Also , we dominated on Rebs as expected.38-26...target... double digit difference . We made our slash of 42/31/61...actual 43/32/71...not great but on a normal night good enough to win.  And finally, an outstanding night by Bess who scored a career high 31 pts.

Of course, we didn't stop their big three...as all 3 exceed their point target by  at least 10 pts...but that ties in with the team slash.

Bottom line...Richmond had "the game" tonight and we still almost beat them....if we continue to make our slash ...grab 38 rebs ...and hold to 12 TOs...like we did tonight...we will win the majority of our remaining games.

 

In other words  that last Richmond game was a freak.  It is over . If we played Richmond 10 more games like we did last time we would win have a good chance at winning all 10 of them.  We come into this game as a B- team overall and trending also at B-.   Rich  is a C team trending at C-.  The spread variable is 5 to 7 pts in favor of the Bills.

Let's look at the report card

 

..............................SLU..............................Rich............................................SLU..................................Rich

 ..................................................OFF......................................................................................DEF...............

PPG.........................D-.................................D...............................................A .......................................C

FG%..........................F+...............................A-...............................................B+........................................F+

3P%..........................F-..................................C...............................................A-.......................................C-

FT%...........................F-...2nd worst ITN......F .........................................................

Reb............................A+................................F-  4th worst ITN......................B.....................................D

Off Reb....A+ ...5th ITN

Report card change....I thought it would be interesting to look at the change not since our St. B game but since our last Rich  game.....

SLU....Up...PPG...FG%...Overall Reb...Off Reb...Def Reb.............................................................................Down...3P%...FT% (went from 6th  to 2nd WITN)...Def PPG...Def FG%...Def 3P%

Rich...UP...PPG...FG%...3P%...Overall  Reb( went from 2nd to 4th WITN)...Def FG% ...Def 3P%..............Down...FT%....Def PPG

Top 100 ITN

STLS....Goodwin 37th....Gilyard...6th

Blks....French.......70th

Rebs....French.......77th

Off Reb....Goodwin...24th...French...85th

FG%...Cayo...59.8%

Assts...Gilyard...56th

Overall we  are better at 2s (but still weak) and worse at 3s...our rebounding is better....our defense has slipped a little but is still very good.....Rich is a little better on offense ans worse at FT shooting....though we have already seen their best ever offense. Their defense is a little better but still poor.

WWN2D2W....We need to play our game....The scores need to come down on both sides....If we play their game we lose.  We need to stop Golden , Gilyard and Cayo...hold then to 14 , 14 and 10 which we can do if we play Billiken ball.  Make our slash 42/ 31/60...we did last time , no reason not to this time.  Beat them on TOs and Rebs. ... need to dominate the boards by double digits.

WCGW.....We start to run with them....We don't protect the ball and TOs get to the upper teens.

Bottom line....We should win this game.....Here is a key stat....Gilyard, Golden, and Cayo....40...34...27...minutes played in yesterday's game.  Rich  is vulnerable to the press....we should start to press them in the 2nd half if it is still a close game...being tired would make them more vulnerable.  Again , if we play our game and don't make mistakes (TOs) we win.

Go Bills.

 

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Does KC's minutes, or lack there of play any part?  Only curious due to him having his best career game come against Richmond the first time around. 

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1 hour ago, wgstl said:

Does KC's minutes, or lack there of play any part?  Only curious due to him having his best career game come against Richmond the first time around. 

Probably not much ....The computer looks at Hankton and sees 6 min/gm and 2 pts....Even in the last Rich game he played 16 min (11pts) yet was 7th in min....Hankton gives us something we desperately need ....Depth and minutes.

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-I would be real tempted to throw on a press after our third opportunity (made basket/FT) which of course might not be for a while, leave it on a couple of opportunities and see what happens, if success play KCH and DJ, not DJF,  a few minutes per half, if FTJr and DJ in the game at same time have to press even off misses

-Let's Go Bills!!!

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A great win....

Here is the key quote from my Jan 31st Richmond game ...post game analysis

 If we play them again  and we come up with the same numbers that we did tonight  (which were pretty average) ...we beat them next time.

FG% was actual better than last time (3 extra 2's ) ...FT% was down a little (missed 1 extra)...net gain 5 pts

We had a great TO number ...8...unfortunately Richmond beat us there with only 5 TOs

A tip o' the cap to French who had a double double (22 12...should move up in national reb ranking) and to Goodwin who missed a DD by 1 pt (9 10)...also to Isabell (17pts) and Bess (14pts)

We didn't stop Golden who had an extra 6 pts over projection...But did stop Gilyard and Cayo who were projected at 14 and 10  and came in at 12 and 10.

But the star stat of the night....the game winner ...was rebounds....I was looking for us to grab a double digit (10) lead in rebs...Instead we far exceeded  with a 42-20 overall spread and an 18-4 offensive reb edge ...we came into this game  at 5th in the nation in Off rebs... A chance to move up in the national rankings here too. It was that huge Offensive rebound spread that allowed us to get an extra five 2 pt shots...an extra three 3 pt shots and an extra FT.  How do we win? ...we do it with volume.

Dayton up next...we won't be favored but I will work the numbers and find a way for us to win.

Go Bills ....Advance and survive.

 

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