kwyjibo Posted February 19, 2014 Share Posted February 19, 2014 Of the 68 bracketologists updating since beating VCU, SLU has moved up to a solid consensus 4 seed (which is also what the NCAA-Press walkthrough said): 2 4%3 12%4 47%5 32%6 4% http://www.bracketmatrix.com/ I have checked the 10 best bracketologists from the recent past as well as those who did well last year and of the 8 or so that I could find they all hadPlease note that Joe Lunardi is not a particularly accurate bracketologist although obviously widely read (to be fair, he has been slightly above average the last 2 years (40th percentile-ish) but has a longer history of being below average). The bracketologist consenus was better than any individual bracketologist last year and top 5%-ish most years. I know which I would expect to produce a better guess. Where can SLU go? I do not have time right now to do the forecast of the possible tourney options but things are looking really good for the regular season (using RPIforecast.com* but I want to add my own A-10 tourney estimates as historically the RPIforecast.com estimates as the season closes have problems). SLU's profile, according to the Dance Card method is being adjusted down a full seed (RPI alone would be 3 seed but profile is good but not as good as others so moved down a seed to 4). SLU needs Richmond and St. Joe's to stay in top 50 and VCU and UMass to stay in top 25. The success of Wisconsin and Wichita St. helps as well. SO, winning out (28-2) gets regular season gets SLU down into 2-3 territory with SLU's profile keeping them most likely a 3. It would then be possible for a 3-0 A10 run to get them down to a 2. There are scenarios where they could go to a 4 (quick loss) but the 3 would be a pretty likely outcome. Finishing 27-3 gets SLU into high 3 low 4 territory once you factor in the profile. The tourney run would then decide between 3 and 4 (win out and most 2-1 finishes creates a 3 seed and others go to 4). 26-4, which is the most likely final SLU record (losing 2 more games), would mean a solid 4 going into the tourney. I think a 3 seed is possible in this scenario with a championship, 4 most likely, but certainly could get worse with a quick exit where even a 6 is possible with a loss to 8 or 9 seed). 25-5 leaves a lot more variability in what SLU could be seeded (as a weaker finish would effect the profile just as much as the change in RPI rank). They would end up 5-6 with a decent tourney but adding a quick exit things could go up (worse case scenario really) to an 8. I will be doing this a bit more formally later this week. http://www.rpiforecast.com/teams/Saint%20Louis.html http://www.unf.edu/~jcoleman/dance.htm *RPIforecast.com uses a Monte Carlo method which means it runs the rest of the season using the probability of Sagarin Ratings as its guide 10,000 times and then publishes the expected range of outcomes from the 10,000 runs. For rare events (I would say anything that happens less than 300 times in the Monte Carlo simulation are suspect but in general the lower the probability of the outcome the more variable the estimate of RPI rank is) the given "expected RPI" could very well be biased--the randomness of the other teams as well effect where SLU ends up. To use a possible example, in the 164 simulations out of 10,000 whre SLU runs the table in the regular season and in Brooklyn there could be a greater possibility of OTHER teams losing in the top 5 that allows the estimate SLU RPI-rank to be 3.4. Luckily as SLU wins these more extreme events are more likely and the RPI rank estimates improve. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bauman Posted February 19, 2014 Share Posted February 19, 2014 Huh? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
billiken class of 15 Posted February 19, 2014 Share Posted February 19, 2014 So...you're saying we should book our Final Four tickets? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gaudiamus Igitur Posted February 19, 2014 Share Posted February 19, 2014 60% of the time, it works every time. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pjvQFtlNQ-M Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RB2.0 Posted February 19, 2014 Share Posted February 19, 2014 So you're saying there is a chance Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brianstl Posted February 19, 2014 Share Posted February 19, 2014 Thanks for the update. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AMDG Posted February 20, 2014 Share Posted February 20, 2014 I'm thinking 3 seed in Milwaukee. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Billikenboy Posted February 20, 2014 Share Posted February 20, 2014 Why not 1? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Old guy Posted February 20, 2014 Share Posted February 20, 2014 Looking at the overall picture for A10, we may have 5 teams in (SLU, UMass, VCU, GW, St. Joe's) and possibly a 6th one if Richmond manages to win the rest of the conference play, or drops VCU but does well in the tournament. This is pretty good I think. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dwayne's_World Posted February 20, 2014 Share Posted February 20, 2014 Lunardi still has us as a 4 seed, playing in San Diego against Stephen Austin What I don't understand is why the 5 seed UCLA would end up that close to home and we are basically traveling across the country... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kappy96 Posted February 20, 2014 Share Posted February 20, 2014 Lunardi still has us as a 4 seed, playing in San Diego against Stephen Austin What I don't understand is why the 5 seed UCLA would end up that close to home and we are basically traveling across the country... Because they need to fill buildings and there is an overall lack of teams from the mountain and pacific time zones. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kappy96 Posted February 21, 2014 Share Posted February 21, 2014 Palm actually bumped us up to a #6 seed in his most recent bracket projection. http://www.cbssports.com/collegebasketball/bracketology Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JettFlight5 Posted February 21, 2014 Share Posted February 21, 2014 He's had SLU @ 6 for a couple weeks. He doesn't penalize teams for losing. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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