kwyjibo Posted October 16, 2012 Share Posted October 16, 2012 My assumption that teams that we already played will continue to perform at their 64.31% win percentage is wrong. Because so many teams we have played play each other it will be less than that. So I made a fairly conservative adjustment and I can use the distribution from last year that WUH provided from last year. I knew something was wrong with the numbers so my translation to likely tourney chances was still fine (just the numbers were a little off). So, if SLU wins out (best case) they would end up around 5th or 6th in the RPI so they would be a 2 seed (final projected RPI of .6165). Going 3-3 down the stretch would (the case I made above) put them at .5503 which is around 35th. They would be unseeded but get into the tourney with that most likely. I think 2-3-1 would give them a shot but they would be relying on some other profile aspects and likely out if they did worse (1-3-2, 2-4, etc.). Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
slufanskip Posted October 16, 2012 Share Posted October 16, 2012 I guess you're assuming 1 conference game witht the 3-3? Just my opinion but I'd give 10-1 odds on a $100 that they don't do that poorly. I know you aren't saying they will, just giving info on what would happen if they did. My thoughts are worst case 3-1-1 regular season 1-1 in conference tourney making them 4-2-1 to end the season. Where would that put them? More likely though is 4-1 or 5-0 in the regular season. They will win their first round game in the tourney if they lose their 2nd game which could be X, VCU, or Charlotte (home team) making them 5-2 or if they go to the finals and lose 6-2 .... this is assuming a 4-1 finish I don't think they'll lose again in the regular season though. Maybe a draw, but I believe they go 5-0. However, I think the 2nd round of the A10 tourney could be a toss up game if they get X, VCU, or Charlotte. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WUH Posted October 16, 2012 Share Posted October 16, 2012 So, if SLU wins out (best case) they would end up around 5th or 6th in the RPI so they would be a 2 seed (final projected RPI of .6165). Going 3-3 down the stretch would (the case I made above) put them at .5503 which is around 35th. They would be unseeded but get into the tourney with that most likely. I think 2-3-1 would give them a shot but they would be relying on some other profile aspects and likely out if they did worse (1-3-2, 2-4, etc.). This is interesting reading. I have a question for you. Does the NCAA focus on mileage and the TES mileage calculator (https://web1.ncaa.org/TES/exec/miles) when assembling pods as they do in Division III? Looking at the 2011 NCAA tournament, in the midwest they grouped Creighton with Western Illinois with Northern Illinois, Louisville with Bradley and Loyola; Southern Methodist with Akron and Northwestern. Its way too early to know but I was just thinking about possible intriguing post season match-ups with Tulsa, SIUE, but who knows what will happen in the Summit, Horizon and Missouri Valley. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kwyjibo Posted October 16, 2012 Share Posted October 16, 2012 I guess you're assuming 1 conference game witht the 3-3? Just my opinion but I'd give 10-1 odds on a $100 that they don't do that poorly. I know you aren't saying they will, just giving info on what would happen if they did. My thoughts are worst case 3-1-1 regular season 1-1 in conference tourney making them 4-2-1 to end the season. Where would that put them? More likely though is 4-1 or 5-0 in the regular season. They will win their first round game in the tourney if they lose their 2nd game which could be X, VCU, or Charlotte (home team) making them 5-2 or if they go to the finals and lose 6-2 .... this is assuming a 4-1 finish I don't think they'll lose again in the regular season though. Maybe a draw, but I believe they go 5-0. However, I think the 2nd round of the A10 tourney could be a toss up game if they get X, VCU, or Charlotte. Yes. The 3-3 is kind of "worst case". I expect them to do better. A 4-2-1 finish (assuming losses on road/neutral, tie at home) they would end up with RPI of .5726 which would leave them as unseeded in playing in the first round although at home with an RPI around 21. Apologies for thinking in basketball terms when talking about seeding above. SLU could get seeded if they do better than 4-2-1. I guess that should be the goal, 5 more wins. The NCAA soccer tournament seeds the top 16 teams and gives them a bye. The other 32 teams play based largely on geography with an eye to some balance (but it appears that geography is not a factor for the 2nd round--i.e., two upper midwest teams could play in the first round and have to travel to east or west coast for the 2nd round). Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
slufanskip Posted October 16, 2012 Share Posted October 16, 2012 Yes. The 3-3 is kind of "worst case". I expect them to do better. A 4-2-1 finish (assuming losses on road/neutral, tie at home) they would end up with RPI of .5726 which would leave them as unseeded in playing in the first round although at home with an RPI around 21. Apologies for thinking in basketball terms above when talking about seeding above. SLU could get seeded if they do better than 4-2-1. I guess that should be the goal, 5 more wins. The NCAA soccer tournament seeds the top 16 teams and gives them a bye. The other 32 teams play based largely on geography with an eye to some balance (but there appears that geography is not a factor for the 2nd round--i.e., two upper midwest teams could play in the first round and have to travel to east or west coast for the 2nd round). thanks Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WUH Posted October 16, 2012 Share Posted October 16, 2012 For what the polls are worth, look who is finally in this week: http://www.nscaa.com/rankings/1570/NCAADivisionI/men/National/Poll8 Ranked No. 23 behind Louisville and Creighton, two teams we smoked, but whatever. Xavier at No. 13. Charlotte is back in but VCU is out. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SLUBALLS Posted October 20, 2012 Share Posted October 20, 2012 SLU up 1-0 on goal by Sweetin (assist Bryce) at St. Joe's. 75th minute. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SLUBALLS Posted October 20, 2012 Share Posted October 20, 2012 SLU wins. Kristo makes boneheaded play by shoving guy to the ground from behind when the guy was 35 yds out from goal wiht 8 seconds to go. We were able to clear but looked just like last weekend vs VCU except they were getting the kick. Think this makes us 10-3. Road win is good. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LouisvilleBilliken Posted October 20, 2012 Share Posted October 20, 2012 Three yellow cards, one of Kristo, one of Roeckle and one on Bryce. None of them are in danger of sitting out a game? In college soccer it is five yellow cards accumulated through the season and then you have to sit out a game. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
slufan13 Posted October 21, 2012 Share Posted October 21, 2012 SLU leading Temple 3-0 with about 10 minutes to play. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
slufan13 Posted October 21, 2012 Share Posted October 21, 2012 3-1 Final. 11-3 overall. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SLUBALLS Posted October 21, 2012 Share Posted October 21, 2012 Two road wins. Very nice. Who scored? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
slufan13 Posted October 21, 2012 Share Posted October 21, 2012 According to Twitter @SLUMensSoccer Scoring summary: Lee (39'), Graydon (46') and Gabeljic (77'). Gabeljic adds two assists for four-point day. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bill_Ken R Posted October 22, 2012 Share Posted October 22, 2012 Looks like May and McGinty have the Billikens about a year ahead of schedule for becoming good again. Very nice hire who has done an outstanding job. They Billikens are once again fun to follow. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SLUBALLS Posted October 22, 2012 Share Posted October 22, 2012 Agreed. Just took a bit of patience for mcginty to get settled. The team has taken a huge leap this year. Didn't we miss the a10 tourney last year even though we were hosting? I thought I read mcginty say he made the team go watch all the games last year. Must have worked. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SLUBALLS Posted October 22, 2012 Share Posted October 22, 2012 One stat that stood out from this game is that in 48 minutes of play adnan had 10 shots, 5 of which were on goal. Crazy. Kristo only played 50 minutes. He didn't get injured did he? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
slufanskip Posted October 22, 2012 Share Posted October 22, 2012 Maybe we'll move up to 26 in top drawers rarings Very good win on the road against a decent Temple team. 2 road wins over the weekend. We need a huge crowd and a win against Charlotte. Don't know anything on Kristo, wondered the same thing. I bet McGinty laid it on the line to Adnon after his lackluster performance the previous week. If he can bring energy on a consistent basis it makes us a much better team. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SLUBALLS Posted October 22, 2012 Share Posted October 22, 2012 Skip I expect a good report from Fridays game. I will miss it due to a tourney with my boys team. Four top 25 wins would be killer. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
slufanskip Posted October 22, 2012 Share Posted October 22, 2012 Skip I expect a good report from Fridays game. I will miss it due to a tourney with my boys team. Four top 25 wins would be killer. I should be there. We will get that win, however, the polls will still have them ranked ahead of us afterwards Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kwyjibo Posted October 22, 2012 Share Posted October 22, 2012 I should be there. We will get that win, however, the polls will still have them ranked ahead of us afterwards Top Drawer has Saint Louis 23 and Charlotte 24 right now (and TDS has been the slowest to get on Saint Louis bandwagon). College Soccer News has SLU at 22 and Charlotte at 14. SLU should move up in the coaches polls and Soccer America will have SLU very high. More importantly, SLU is 8th in RPI (beating St. Joe's, even on the road cost SLU a few spots but beating Temple helped get them back to pre-St. Joe's level). Massey Ratings (the only computer poll I could find that uses margin of victory) has SLU at 12th. http://masseyratings...oc⊂=NCAA%20I Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
slufanskip Posted October 22, 2012 Share Posted October 22, 2012 Top Drawer has Saint Louis 23 and Charlotte 24 right now (and TDS has been the slowest to get on Saint Louis bandwagon). College Soccer News has SLU at 22 and Charlotte at 14. SLU should move up in the coaches polls and Soccer America will have SLU very high. More importantly, SLU is 8th in RPI (beating St. Joe's, even on the road cost SLU a few spots but beating Temple helped get them back to pre-St. Joe's level). Massey Ratings (the only computer poll I could find that uses margin of victory) has SLU at 12th. http://masseyratings...oc⊂=NCAA%20I Thanks for the info. I was about to look up the current rpi. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kwyjibo Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 Minor update on RPI. I just ran the numbers and they would be in RPI-wise even IF they collapsed and lost 4 straight games. BUT collapsing like that would mean some bad losses and a mediocre "last 10" record so they could be kept out. Now, any win would put them in pretty safe territory but the goal should be to get seeded (top 16). They can get to the top 16 with 2-1 and a semifinal loss (3-2) and might get there with a little less. That is very doable so SLU is really in a strong position because of their strong RPI (8th through 14 games with 4-6 to go) and top 25 RPI wins over Creighton, VCU and Louisville (Louisville is currently top 10). Denver will likely be top 50 so that road loss will not hurt; Indiana is top 10 and Xavier is top 25. So the profile is strong right now (a win over Charlotte could be a top 25 win). They could easily pick a great seed for the tournament (6-0 would make them 3-5 overall seed). Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BACKHANDtheRICAN Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 According to Twitter @SLUMensSoccer Scoring summary: Lee (39'), Graydon (46') and Gabeljic (77'). Gabeljic adds two assists for four-point day. Sounds like a real barn burner. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
slufanskip Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 Minor update on RPI. I just ran the numbers and they would be in RPI-wise even IF they collapsed and lost 4 straight games. BUT collapsing like that would mean some bad losses and a mediocre "last 10" record so they could be kept out. Now, any win would put them in pretty safe territory but the goal should be to get seeded (top 16). They can get to the top 16 with 2-1 and a semifinal loss (3-2) and might get there with a little less. That is very doable so SLU is really in a strong position because of their strong RPI (8th through 14 games with 4-6 to go) and top 25 RPI wins over Creighton, VCU and Louisville (Louisville is currently top 10). Denver will likely be top 50 so that road loss will not hurt; Indiana is top 10 and Xavier is top 25. So the profile is strong right now (a win over Charlotte could be a top 25 win). They could easily pick a great seed for the tournament (6-0 would make them 3-5 overall seed). I believe there is a good chance we win out the regular season. However, playing X, VCU, or Charlotte in Charlotte worries me a little, so I wouldn't be shocked with a loss to any of them, but winning it all wouldn't surprise me either. Hope we have a great turn out for Charlotte Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
slufanskip Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 Sounds like a real barn burner. We won that one despite the Temple keep using extra pine tar Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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