OT Cards trade

[slufanskip]

fwiw, Chipper Jones is batting .389. He is batting .448 at home and .331 away.

I'm sure we could probably find a ton of guys that have a drastic split between home and away.

I believe career wise your example of C Jones will prove to be misleading

Lets look at a few. I'll use slugging percent so I just have to list one stat.

Player Home Away Diff

Holliday 654 450 -204

Pujols 612 627 +15

ARod 595 563 -32

Wright 537 524 -13

Utley 573 500 -73

Ramirez,M 594 584 -10

Berkman 559 575 +16

Jones,C 575 525 -50

Howard,R 586 584 -2

Ortiz 556 555 -1

Morneau 515 476 -39

Cabrera,M 538 527 -11

Uggla 510 502 -8

Bay 506 525 +19

I tried to list players whose home games have primarily been at one park and used career numbers. The players with the greatest Home and Away split are Utley at 73 and Holliday at 204. Holliday's 450 slugging percentage away from home is one of only 2 players from the sample with a slugging % lower than 500 the other being Morneau's away 476, but his home is only 515 and his overall is 496 so that is basically what you are getting. With Holliday his home is 654 his overall is 554 and his away is 450. His at bats home and away are almost even. The average difference not including Holliday is about 22, Holliday's difference is almost 10 times the average

On the positive side .... Is Pujols really that much better than everyone else? Besides Holliday's inflated home numbers there is no one else home or away over 600 and Pujols is above 600 home and away.

[kshoe]

I believe career wise your example of C Jones will prove to be misleading

Lets look at a few. I'll use slugging percent so I just have to list one stat.

Player Home Away Diff

Holliday 654 450 -204

Pujols 612 627 +15

ARod 595 563 -32

Wright 537 524 -13

Utley 573 500 -73

Ramirez,M 594 584 -10

Berkman 559 575 +16

Jones,C 575 525 -50

Howard,R 586 584 -2

Ortiz 556 555 -1

Morneau 515 476 -39

Cabrera,M 538 527 -11

Uggla 510 502 -8

Bay 506 525 +19

I tried to list players whose home games have primarily been at one park and used career numbers. The players with the greatest Home and Away split are Utley at 73 and Holliday at 204. Holliday's 450 slugging percentage away from home is one of only 2 players from the sample with a slugging % lower than 500 the other being Morneau's away 476, but his home is only 515 and his overall is 496 so that is basically what you are getting. With Holliday his home is 654 his overall is 554 and his away is 450. His at bats home and away are almost even. The average difference not including Holliday is about 22, Holliday's difference is almost 10 times the average

On the positive side .... Is Pujols really that much better than everyone else? Besides Holliday's inflated home numbers there is no one else home or away over 600 and Pujols is above 600 home and away.

Great post Skip. It pretty clearly makes the point about Holiday and the home field advantage.

And yes, Pujols is really that much better than everyone else. People around here are spoiled and many don't realize we have the pleasure of watching on a daily basis one of the best players ever. IF he stays healthy, and thats a big if, he'll put up top 5 career numbers in nearly every major category.

[GOSLU68]

You may be right, but I wouldn't do it for a 1.5 year rental either.

Young, cheap talent is the most precious thing in baseball and you can never have enough of it. Trades like the one that got rid of Drew are perfect. Trades like the one that brought in Mulder at the expense of Dan Haren kill you. No way should the Cards trade two top prospects that we would control for 5 years at cheap prices for a guy that may only be here 1.5 years.

not to Colorado; but free Chris Duncan. I am surprised his father has not mentioned to Tony there are many teams in baseball that could use a starting

1st baseman with his numbers. He will never be a regular outfielder or 1st baseman for us unless Pujols can't make it to the ballpark.

I would think he also could D{H in the American league games

[slufanskip]

not to Colorado; but free Chris Duncan. I am surprised his father has not mentioned to Tony there are many teams in baseball that could use a starting

1st baseman with his numbers. He will never be a regular outfielder or 1st baseman for us unless Pujols can't make it to the ballpark.

I would think he also could D{H in the American league games

I think Chris needs to have a good month. The Cards need Chris to have a good month. In his first 516 at bats he hit about 290 with 38 HR's, 90 RBI's and a slugging % of 570. In his last 335 at bats he's hit 230 with 11 HRs, 47 RBI's and a 369 slugging %.

The question is which is the real Chris Duncan. In is last 10 games he's 10 for 33 with 2 HR's and 8 RBI's. In his last 5 he's 6 for 18 with 2 HR's and 6 RBI's. It's a short period of time but he's starting to come around. If he can put together a good 4-6 weeks, he may be good trade bait, but if he does that you have to start wondering if he's the outfielder that needs to go. You can put up with some poor defense for a 290, 38, 90, 570 guy.

[moytoy12]

I believe career wise your example of C Jones will prove to be misleading

Lets look at a few. I'll use slugging percent so I just have to list one stat.

Player Home Away Diff

Holliday 654 450 -204

Pujols 612 627 +15

ARod 595 563 -32

Wright 537 524 -13

Utley 573 500 -73

Ramirez,M 594 584 -10

Berkman 559 575 +16

Jones,C 575 525 -50

Howard,R 586 584 -2

Ortiz 556 555 -1

Morneau 515 476 -39

Cabrera,M 538 527 -11

Uggla 510 502 -8

Bay 506 525 +19

I tried to list players whose home games have primarily been at one park and used career numbers. The players with the greatest Home and Away split are Utley at 73 and Holliday at 204. Holliday's 450 slugging percentage away from home is one of only 2 players from the sample with a slugging % lower than 500 the other being Morneau's away 476, but his home is only 515 and his overall is 496 so that is basically what you are getting. With Holliday his home is 654 his overall is 554 and his away is 450. His at bats home and away are almost even. The average difference not including Holliday is about 22, Holliday's difference is almost 10 times the average

On the positive side .... Is Pujols really that much better than everyone else? Besides Holliday's inflated home numbers there is no one else home or away over 600 and Pujols is above 600 home and away.

Great post. I stand corrected.

Where did you find those stats?

[OC]

did you read? only one person even suggested that trade. You use everyone pretty loosely, probably helps you feel superior.

Dear Skipper,

Yes I read.

Why did you take this personally?

Did you think I literally meant 'everyone'? If I change it to 'alot of folks' would you relax?

If you listened to sportstalk or read the paper back then, you'd have seen/heard plenty of trade speculation that was flat out silly, of which the Kennedy talk reminded me.

I think Cards fans tend to be unreasonable often. Check out what Bernie felt like he had to write today. Or look at what a stretch of 70 is named.

Sorry for throwing my opinion out there buddy.

[slufanskip]

Dear Skipper,

Yes I read.

Why did you take this personally?

Did you think I literally meant 'everyone'? If I change it to 'alot of folks' would you relax?

If you listened to sportstalk or read the paper back then, you'd have seen/heard plenty of trade speculation that was flat out silly, of which the Kennedy talk reminded me.

I think Cards fans tend to be unreasonable often. Check out what Bernie felt like he had to write today. Or look at what a stretch of 70 is named.

Sorry for throwing my opinion out there buddy.

Go back and read your post, I apologize for going off, but it was pretty condescending as if the entire thread had suggested Kennedy.

I agree that frequently talk radio callers don't seem to have a clue.

[slufanskip]

Great post. I stand corrected.

Where did you find those stats?

Yahoo fantasy baseball. On the player profile page under split stats. Matt's on my fantasy team, which is why I was aware of the difference. Playing in Colorado, I had to look at the beginning of the year.

[OC]

Go back and read your post, I apologize for going off, but it was pretty condescending as if the entire thread had suggested Kennedy.

I agree that frequently talk radio callers don't seem to have a clue.

No apology necessary.

I was taken a good natured shot at Cards fans in general--not bills posters.

I'll be at the game tonite--curious to see what kind of respose Jimmy Ballgame gets.

Should be an interesting night.

[slufanskip]

No apology necessary.

I was taken a good natured shot at Cards fans in general--not bills posters.

I'll be at the game tonite--curious to see what kind of respose Jimmy Ballgame gets.

Should be an interesting night.

I'm probably in the minority, but I feel he should get a standing O when he is announced or at his first at bat, and then treated like the stinking cub he is after that. Jimmy is one of my favorite Cards ever, and without a doubt the most entertaining player I ever watched, but he's a cub now.

[3star_recruit]

No apology necessary.

I was taken a good natured shot at Cards fans in general--not bills posters.

I was just trying to think of a position player to package with Ludwick off the top of my head. Admittedly Adam Kennedy was probably not the best example, but hey, negotiations start with trying to lowball the other guy, right?

As my fellow posters have made clear to me it's prospects the Colorado are looking for anyway. I've already mentioned Mather and Mortensen, but I'd be comfortable with just about anybody in the top 10 being involved in a trade, outside of Perez and Garcia. As long as we don't trade more than 2 prospects.

[slufanskip]

I was just trying to think of a position player to package with Ludwick off the top of my head. Admittedly Adam Kennedy was probably not the best example, but hey, negotiations start with trying to lowball the other guy, right?

As my fellow posters have made clear to me it's prospects the Colorado are looking for anyway. I've already mentioned Mather and Mortensen, but I'd be comfortable with just about anybody in the top 10 being involved in a trade, outside of Perez and Garcia. As long as we don't trade more than 2 prospects.

I still don't see why we'd trade for an outfielder, especially someone who will probably end up being priced according to his current statistics and in all probability won't match them elsewhere. (though he had a big night for me last night in fantasy ball)

I just think we have an abundance of outfielders. I'm not quite sure what my long term thoughts on Ludwick are yet, I have some of the same concerns as you probably do, has he been playing over his head which might make his value at it's highest right now? Colby will be up and will play next year, if Duncan continues to hit better he may be an option to move, but realistically what would we get for him? Maybe a couple of mid level prospects? Our outfield options next year will be Ainkel, Rasmus, Ludwick, Shoe and Duncan ... I just don't see the value in giving anything up, especially pitching ... would we even resign Holliday?

I'd be willing to part with Mather, Shoe, Duncan, or Ludwick for Fuentes and thats only because we have an abundance of outfielders that aren't seperated by alot imo. I'd be hesitant to add pitching to the deal unless I was damn sure Fuentes was a top 5 or 6 closer. I'm not sure he is.

Mortenson has had a good start to his AAA career, he's walked a few to many, but his results so far have been good, I'd prefer to give him time, he could be an important starter in the near future.

If I were to give up anything valuable it would be to get a real top of the rotation starter, and then only if I was pretty damn sure I was willing to pay the price to resign him.

Unless you are willing to spend big bucks on free agent pitching and history shows you frequently don't get good value for the money spent ... Teams like the Cards have to grow their own pitching.

[3star_recruit]

I still don't see why we'd trade for an outfielder, especially someone who will probably end up being priced according to his current statistics and in all probability won't match them elsewhere. (though he had a big night for me last night in fantasy ball)

Mo has been gold as a GM thus far so I'm giving him the benefit of the doubt. If he believes based on the limited sample (.385 BA, .478 OBP, 5 hr in 11 games) that Holliday will be a masher at Busch then you ARE getting the same player he was in Colorado. And with Colorado's prospects looking bleak in the near future there's a strong possibility that Holliday will walk after next season without the Rockies getting anything in return. I think they may settle for a little less than some people think.

As for price, the only players making big money on this roster are Pujols, Glaus, Carpenter and Izzy. I'm assuming Mo is letting Izzy walk after this season, so that leaves three. Paying Holliday and solidifying this batting order for the next 5 years is a luxury that Mo can afford to have.

Unless you are willing to spend big bucks on free agent pitching and history shows you frequently don't get good value for the money spent ... Teams like the Cards have to grow their own pitching.

With all the resources the Cardinals have invested in minor league pitching I'm sure they agree with you. By the time a starting pitcher or two emerges from the minors and completes that first contract, they can divy up the paycheck formerly drawn by Chris Carpenter.

[Bishop]

Even as a cubs fan I think this trade would be foolish for the cardinals to make. You guys have a decent OF, and most if not all of those outfielders seem to be relatively young and/or new at their respective positions (a la ankiel). I think the yankees have been the prime example to the rest of the league that it is a poor move to trade away blossoming young talent for one rental player.

Holliday isnt going to be the player that puts you over the top in the central. An upgrade at the midle infield positions I think would be the place where you guys should look if you are going to be making any moves. While I like Kennedy and Ryan as possible backups or once in awhile players at those positions, I dont think they are everyday guys. What about someone like Christian Guzman from Washington? They are always looking for some young players to put in to their awful farm system and Guzman is actually a solid player again. Batting .315 with 5 hr and 27 rbi and actually leads the mlb in hits this year.

[OC]

Skip--I agree with how you thought Edmonds should be greeted...and that's "sorta" how it went. At the same time, Bernie's articles stike a chord, too. I'm glad we aren't Philadelphia/New york, but perhaps some middle ground would make me less grumpy about Cardinal Nation.

I also think OF is a position you don't pay for to that extent. Unless we are talking about a bigtime talent such as Sizemore off the top of my head....too easy to fall into some OF production. Ludwick comes to mind there.

There is most definitely a spike in Coors #'s--that's for sure. But I wonder/assume that playing half of your games there alters your approach. In other words, Holliday, et al, hit with a mindset/approach that works at coors BUT doesn't do them favors on the road. Not to say his #'s wouldn't suffer if he left Denver....but probably something to be said for him playing 162 games *without* the 'coors factor' if that makes sense. The guy is a bigtime athlete.

with that said, i still wouldn't break the bank for him.

Is Texas' Michael Young a FA soon (i thought i read this)? I also think I'd pay a premium for a big bat at 3B if one were available.

[slufanskip]

Skip--I agree with how you thought Edmonds should be greeted...and that's "sorta" how it went. At the same time, Bernie's articles stike a chord, too. I'm glad we aren't Philadelphia/New york, but perhaps some middle ground would make me less grumpy about Cardinal Nation.

I also think OF is a position you don't pay for to that extent. Unless we are talking about a bigtime talent such as Sizemore off the top of my head....too easy to fall into some OF production. Ludwick comes to mind there.

There is most definitely a spike in Coors #'s--that's for sure. But I wonder/assume that playing half of your games there alters your approach. In other words, Holliday, et al, hit with a mindset/approach that works at coors BUT doesn't do them favors on the road. Not to say his #'s wouldn't suffer if he left Denver....but probably something to be said for him playing 162 games *without* the 'coors factor' if that makes sense. The guy is a bigtime athlete.

with that said, i still wouldn't break the bank for him.

Is Texas' Michael Young a FA soon (i thought i read this)? I also think I'd pay a premium for a big bat at 3B if one were available.

I like Glaus at 3rd, he won't hit 300, but he will hit 260 with 35 HR's. His pace is a little off this year due to his slow start which I chalk up to the changing league. I bet he still ends up close to 260, 30, 100. Plus he's played better than average D.

I agree with the poster that said the Cards should be looking at 2nd and 3rd. I like Izturus, but his history doesn't make a full season for him likely. I'd like to have both at short, but if a choice had to be made I'd take defense over offense. It'd be great to add a big bat at 2nd but what are our options really? Micheal Young (I believe) played some 2nd early in his career and the Rangers have a young hotshot SS coming soon.

You make a good point with Holliday as did 3star with his Busch numbers. I'm just leary and I like our young OF so I wouldn't gamble, which is what imo we'd be doing with Matt. His away from Coors numbers just don't make him a sure thing. I understand the Angels and A's are front runners anyway with maybe the Dodgers trying to get in.

If we were going to go after an OF Jason Bay may be available, and I think we'd have a better handle on what we're getting and he'd be cheaper. But in the end I'd be trading an OF for a SS, 2nd baseman, or a Cy Young level starter (See CC)

To be honest, I'd be big in the CC sweepstakes. I'd trade whatever it took besides Colby and I'd inquire about Sizemore, when is his contract up? If they would consider throwing him in the deal ... I'd give up Mortenson, Todd, Anderson, and Garcia ... and possibly Duncan or Ludwick. I think Brian Anderson should be a hot commodity ... I love Yadi, on my team he's not going anywhere, which makes Anderson expendale.

Sizemore is 26 or 27, CC has 100 wins and is just turning 28. The Cards can afford them.

I'd love to see (fantasize about)

A rotation

CC, Wainright, Lohse, Carp, Piniero, or Wellmeyer

A starting 9 of Yadi, Pujols, Ryan, Izturas, Glaus, Rasmus, Ainkel, and Sizemore. Who'd hit leadoff? I don't know, but I'd figure it out.

OK someone slap me

[slufanskip]

Skip--I agree with how you thought Edmonds should be greeted...and that's "sorta" how it went. At the same time, Bernie's articles stike a chord, too. I'm glad we aren't Philadelphia/New york, but perhaps some middle ground would make me less grumpy about Cardinal Nation.

I also think OF is a position you don't pay for to that extent. Unless we are talking about a bigtime talent such as Sizemore off the top of my head....too easy to fall into some OF production. Ludwick comes to mind there.

There is most definitely a spike in Coors #'s--that's for sure. But I wonder/assume that playing half of your games there alters your approach. In other words, Holliday, et al, hit with a mindset/approach that works at coors BUT doesn't do them favors on the road. Not to say his #'s wouldn't suffer if he left Denver....but probably something to be said for him playing 162 games *without* the 'coors factor' if that makes sense. The guy is a bigtime athlete.

with that said, i still wouldn't break the bank for him.

Is Texas' Michael Young a FA soon (i thought i read this)? I also think I'd pay a premium for a big bat at 3B if one were available.

I thought Bernie's column was over the top ridiculous. Busch didn't turn into Wrigley South. He sounded like a 3rd grader who exagerated what happened because he didn't get hs way

[OC]

I thought Bernie's column was over the top ridiculous. Busch didn't turn into Wrigley South. He sounded like a 3rd grader who exagerated what happened because he didn't get hs way

I agree that it wasnt quite as bad as he said...but he's seen alot of cardinal kool-aid bleeding and was taking it out on this particular episode of cardinal love.

Even LaRussa said something like 'if he wanted to be a cardinal he'd still be one'. Not saying he should be booed for choosing another team, though.

I like your taste on the CC/Sizemore combo, but i think the Tribe would have a hard time renewing season tix if they unloaded Grady.

It seems like everyone is certain CC will test FA, so it will be interesting to see what the going rate is for him if he's indeed a rental.

I think philly is the team that should get him if they can. Cole +CC +that lineup could win 3 postseason series.

[billiken_roy]

That sounds like the kind of great logic that led to JD Drew for Adam Wainright, Marquis and Ray King. Still think the Braves got the better on that one?

Trading your two top prospects for a 1/2 year rental is suicide in todays baseball salary structure.

i have always been a drew hater, so not sure where that came from.

it isnt a 1/2 year rental. it would be a year and half. one would think the cardinals would have a great opportunity to win holliday over in a year and a half.

i am astounded that folks in st louis would pass on any chance to get holiday that wouldnt involve albert. proof that cardinal nation lives in another world.

[kshoe]

i have always been a drew hater, so not sure where that came from.

it isnt a 1/2 year rental. it would be a year and half. one would think the cardinals would have a great opportunity to win holliday over in a year and a half.

i am astounded that folks in st louis would pass on any chance to get holiday that wouldnt involve albert. proof that cardinal nation lives in another world.

You defended the Drew trade pretty strongly back in the day. I guess you no longer remember those discussions but that is ok.

Roy, are you saying you would trade Adam Wainright for Holliday straight-up? Please keep in mind the Cards have Wainright locked up for 3.5 more years at a total of $15mm and have team options on him in 2012 and 2013 for a grand total of another $21mm.

Matt Holiday is owed 18.5mm through the end of next year. Conservatively speaking, it would cost another $25mm to keep Holiday through the end of 2011 and another $30mm to keep him through 2013.

So to keep AW through 2011 it would cost $15mm compared to $43mm for MH. Through 2013 it would be more like $36mm for AW and $73mm for MH.

Man am I glad you aren't running my team.

[3star_recruit]

i am astounded that folks in st louis would pass on any chance to get holiday that wouldnt involve albert. proof that cardinal nation lives in another world.

I just think they're using the wrong model of projection going forward. They are projecting him as a .277 hitter at Busch because that's what he hits on the road. But he's been a high-average masher at Busch. Plus, how much better would his numbers be if he hit behind Albert? As it stands, we keep playing a game of rotating clean-up man in front of him. Now that Ludwick has come back down to earth and Glaus is in one of his nasty slumps, we're really struggling to score.

The consensus on this thread is that SS is a more pressing need. OK. But what puts us in a better position to win: 1) packaging 2 prospects for a .300 hitting power guy in his prime to bat behind Albert or 2) packaging a prospect to get a light-hitting SS who isn't projected to be a Gold Glover?

[BillikenTX]

Skip, you are delusional to think Cleveland would just throw in Sizemore, the guy is leading the AL in homeruns in the leadoff spot with little to help hitting behind him, not to mention playing a gold glove CF. He signed a 5 or 6 year extension last year anyway.

CC makes the BrewCrew pretty stout. Being an Indians fan, its a tough pill to swallow losing perhaps the best starter in franchise history outside of Bob Feller today for LaPorta and a bunch of "potential" arms and bats.

[3star_recruit]

CC makes the BrewCrew pretty stout. Being an Indians fan, its a tough pill to swallow losing perhaps the best starter in franchise history outside of Bob Feller.

What, no love for Sam McDowell?

[billiken_roy]

Roy, are you saying you would trade Adam Wainright for Holliday straight-up? Please keep in mind the Cards have Wainright locked up for 3.5 more years at a total of $15mm and have team options on him in 2012 and 2013 for a grand total of another $21mm.

Matt Holiday is owed 18.5mm through the end of next year. Conservatively speaking, it would cost another $25mm to keep Holiday through the end of 2011 and another $30mm to keep him through 2013.

So to keep AW through 2011 it would cost $15mm compared to $43mm for MH. Through 2013 it would be more like $36mm for AW and $73mm for MH.

Man am I glad you aren't running my team.

yes, i would trade a very good up and coming pitcher for the defending mvp anyday. wainwright would be tough to part with, but if the cardinals feel that strongly, make it a bundle deal that gets back a high ranking colorado minor league pitcher that might develop.

dont talk to me about money when the cardinals are paying mulder for what? salary shouldnt be an issue when you have a chance to get a top 10 everyday player that is likely not even in his prime yet.

[billiken_roy]

I just think they're using the wrong model of projection going forward. They are projecting him as a .277 hitter at Busch because that's what he hits on the road. But he's been a high-average masher at Busch. Plus, how much better would his numbers be if he hit behind Albert? As it stands, we keep playing a game of rotating clean-up man in front of him. Now that Ludwick has come back down to earth and Glaus is in one of his nasty slumps, we're really struggling to score.

The consensus on this thread is that SS is a more pressing need. OK. But what puts us in a better position to win: 1) packaging 2 prospects for a .300 hitting power guy in his prime to bat behind Albert or 2) packaging a prospect to get a light-hitting SS who isn't projected to be a Gold Glover?

i agree 3 star. those that are debating us on this fantasy trade, need to find us the player(s) that perform as good away from home as they do at home. i would bet that is a very short list. i also think that trend has less to do with playing in a specific city as it does with sleeping in there own bed, not eating hotel food and such.