Tonka Posted January 20, 2004 Share Posted January 20, 2004 Thicks, I appreciate your faith in my knowledge. It would really be unfair to others and to Vegas if I told you all exactly the wins, the points, etc. This way, I give you a little info to work with and if you use this info wisely, you should still come out ahead. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quality Is Job 1 Posted January 20, 2004 Share Posted January 20, 2004 To heck with being fair to the others! Whatever happened to selling out to the highest bidder? Isn't that the American Way? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
billiken_roy Posted January 20, 2004 Author Share Posted January 20, 2004 thicks, i agree third place will put the billikens in. however, i dont think less than 12 wins will get the billikens in 3rd place by themselves. two different issues. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kwyjibo Posted January 20, 2004 Share Posted January 20, 2004 I just ran my season-end RPI projections and the news has gotten worse (so I think Roy is more accurate now). I think things like Houston and some of SLU's non-conference foes losing has hurt. Our projected final SOS is numerically lower (noticeably) than it was two weeks ago. My initial projections for final RPI rank and updated (obviously play in conference tournament will count but I won't try to predict that impact until conference standings firm up): 10-6 was 66 and now its 74. (This won't even get us a look if true) 11-5 was 58 and now its 62 (Good profile will make it possible but nerve racking) 12-4 was 46 and now its 51 (Less scarey but still very "profile and prayer") 13-3 was 37 and now its 40 (This is a lot to ask but if it happens were in great shape) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
billiken_roy Posted January 20, 2004 Author Share Posted January 20, 2004 correct me if i am wrong, but let's say we slip and lose to a team we shouldnt, say tulane, but then we beat cincy or louisville, that would more than offset that slip? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SluSignGuy Posted January 20, 2004 Share Posted January 20, 2004 The Tournament is a giant variable. Remember last year, after the first round of the C-USA's we dropped a good 10 spots in the RPI. That could easily happen again, but we could easily go up. We just probably should become big Marquette, Charlotte, and Depaul fans in the C-USA tourney. We need everything we can get. Steve Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Billiken75 Posted January 20, 2004 Share Posted January 20, 2004 I would be happy if it comes down to the Louisville game at home. Win it - we are in (or close to it) - lose and we are probably out. This of course means that we do not win the conference tourney. I would hate to come into a pretty full house and play this team the way they can play defense. We would make it a game.... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
billiken_roy Posted January 20, 2004 Author Share Posted January 20, 2004 one, we did not think that butler and west virginia were going to be as low as they are. two, our 4 buy games were just horrible. three, the sms game hurts four, i bet we were counting on marquette and depaul both being better this year. the above four factors will kill the rpi this year and force us to have a much better record than last year to get into the ncaa tourney. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
billiken_roy Posted January 20, 2004 Author Share Posted January 20, 2004 thicks, keep in mind, that over the last 10 years, the only sure thing is a sub 40 rpi or winning the conference tourney. the other factors are mumbo jumbo the committee uses to justify the ugly back room deals. every year we see teams screwed and teams get in undeserving. i personally dont believe we have the national respect or contacts to get in based on 3rd place, or wins vs marquette and charlotte as examples. that louisville game is going to be huge if we stumble any at all. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kwyjibo Posted January 20, 2004 Share Posted January 20, 2004 How the non-RPI factors (good wins,bad losses, away wins, etc.) get factored in relative to each other has never been made explicit. I honestly do not know and different bracketologists weigh them differently as well. I tend to think that losing to losing to Tulane and beating Cincy would be a net positive (while being the same RPI-wise) because it has always seemed to me that mediocre big conference teams get in if they beat 1 or 2 top conference rivals. Beating Louisville AND Cincy would have a huge impact because I don't think a bubble team with 2 wins against top 25 could be ignored. I think any close call is where being in the C-USA is a good thing as we have always had a person in the room to make a case (currently Charlotte AD Judy Rose). Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kwyjibo Posted January 20, 2004 Share Posted January 20, 2004 While the 4 buy games definitely hurt (and will continue to hurt as they pile up the losses against bad teams), I think another important factor is the Calipari scheduling. Not having two tries to beat Louisville and Cincy may end up costing us. Marquette is maybe a little worse than I expected (but they are mostly hurt by their soft scheduling) and I actually thought DePaul would be a lot worse so those two impact on RPI is a little better than I would have thought. For the record, I did not think Memphis or SO Miss would be as good either. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Norman_Dale Posted January 20, 2004 Share Posted January 20, 2004 ...that I'd be up there with Iggy if the New York State Commission hadn't permanently suspended me from coaching, thus forcing me to forget to supply a pick for the last game! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iggy Posted January 21, 2004 Share Posted January 21, 2004 So that's what happened to you...I was wondering. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
billiken_roy Posted January 21, 2004 Author Share Posted January 21, 2004 iggy, it's going to come down to one game.......one game you will screw up and we all go flooding by you. all of us "pick with our hearts" guys. when we beat louisville, that woosh sound is all of us second place guys rushing the stage. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Norman_Dale Posted January 21, 2004 Share Posted January 21, 2004 ...up to now the picks have been relatively easy going. After this weekend, it is going to be a real nailbiter for the rest of the season. We are clearly a competitive team that will be in every game, but I suspect may also have one or two down shooting nights that may sting us. When will they be? It will be fun. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
billiken_roy Posted January 21, 2004 Author Share Posted January 21, 2004 ahhhh yes, the joys of riding the rollercoater more commonly known as "being a billiken fan". Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iggy Posted January 21, 2004 Share Posted January 21, 2004 I hope you're right! I would gladdly trade points in the pick 'em contest for another win over Looserville. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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